DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
Today you’ll find no significant changes to the outlook during the next several days from what I posted yesterday. We remain in a northwesterly air flow today when a cold front passes by with varying amounts of clouds but a minimal chance of a quick-passing rain shower. We’ll continue to see an active breeze too, which will settle down a bit but still be noticeable as high pressure slides south of the region Wednesday, providing nice weather for Veterans Day. Then the much-talked-about storm system starts to impact our region Thursday with its influence remaining with us until the start of the weekend. The scenario I expect is much what I described previously. To summarize, I expect low pressure to head our way via the Ohio Valley, redevelop off the Mid Atlantic Coast, elongate, and do a dumbbell pivot with the redeveloped low starting a more northeastward trek with the older low to the west eventually being pulled more southeast. This should keep the track of the elongated low center just south of New England between Thursday night and Friday night, with our region on the northern side of its precipitation shield. With a broad onshore flow off the milder Atlantic waters, this means a rain event for our region, heaviest south, lighter north, with amounts considerably lower than the recent event. If any snow gets involved it would be wet flakes mixed in with rain (or a brief chance to wet snow) in higher elevation locations of southwestern NH and central MA, assuming the precipitation was significant enough to make that happen. Time frame on this potential would be toward the end of the system on Friday evening. By Saturday, I’m expecting a more consolidated area of low pressure with an expanding circulation to be east of our region, heading for Atlantic Canada. For us, this means a breezy, cool Saturday with lots of clouds, some sun, and not being able to rule out a passing rain shower.
TODAY: Intervals of clouds & sun. Slight chance of a quick-passing rain shower. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely southeast / chance of rain northwest. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely southeast / chance of rain northwest. Highs 45-52. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH South Coast especially Cape Cod, with higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off but can briefly mix with wet snow interior higher elevations before doing so. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, particularly eastern coastal areas to Cape Cod.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower potential. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
High pressure builds toward the region with lingering upper level low pressure overhead November 15 but looking dry with sun / cloud mix to end the weekend. High pressure builds in thereafter and dominates with fair and seasonable to slightly milder than normal weather well into next week.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
A quick-passing front may bring a brief rain shower threat early period. A more formidable system brings unsettled weather by the end of the period, with details TBD.
Good morning and thank you TK
43 here
Ocean: 54
Wordle: 4
I understand that the Patriots may trade for Jonathan Taylor given that Stevenson is down for a number of weks.
That would be great !
They need someone for their offense, who is left, not injured?
Great 4, JpDave !
Thank you Tom. Should have been less. Once again, many choices. 🙂
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Feel like suppression slowly continues on the GFS/AIGFS …. I ran out of time to look at the EURO and its AIFS
Nice 4 and WELCOME to the 4 car!
Excellent 4s, JPD and Tom
Thanks to a lucky random word generator – Wordle 2!! Generated word only left 3 possibilities and, for once, the correct word came into my head first.
Well done!!
Yay!!! Excellent.
I got the last 2 letters in position and one our of position with my first guess. From there, just too many possibilities. I made a wild guess for #2 that I probably should not have made. Then I thought for sure I had it in 3. NOPE, But then I was certain for my guess #4.
Exceptional.
I also got Wordle in 4 today.
Welcome to the 4 car! That makes 3 of us.
Also excellent. 4 has been a popular car lately
Thanks TK
re: Friday’s System
Last night Pete was pretty much all in on a Nor’Ester!!
And mentioned SNOW for SW NH and North Central Mass, but NOT to the coast.
He was expecting a pretty decent storm with much wind.
Models are still not consistent.
We shall see.
What’s up with the WOOF-NAM model????
It now shows up on PIVOTAL WEATHER!
https://ibb.co/N2bX8QrC
I found this:
WOOF-NAM is an independently developed, GPU-native regional weather model implementation that brings back the legacy of the retired North American Mesoscale (NAM) model.
Key Details
• Not Official NOAA/NWS: WOOF-NAM is not an official operational model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the National Weather Service (NWS). It is an open-source project by Recast Systems (recast) designed to run on modern hardware.
• Context of Retirement: NOAA officially retired the operational NAM model on November 3, 2026, replacing it and several other legacy systems (like HREF and SREF) with the new Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS).
• How It Works: WOOF-NAM runs a 12 km version of the NAM physics framework, initialized using Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis data, and executes on NVIDIA GPUs for much faster processing. Because of these different initializations and hardware executions, its outputs can slightly diverge from the historical operational NAM.
• Availability: It has been integrated into third-party weather platforms and visualization apps (such as WeatherWise and AguaceroWX) as a free reference and comparison tool for meteorology enthusiasts.
Would you like to know more about the official RRFS model that NOAA launched to replace the NAM, or how to view weather model data on apps like WeatherWise?
And this. One of these names is familiar!!!
The WOOF-NAM is an independent, open-source revival of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather model, which was officially retired by NOAA on November 3, 2026. The model was brought back and modernized by meteorologist Tomer Burg alongside Recast. It allows the weather community to continue accessing the beloved forecasting guidance.
Key Features of WOOF-NAM
• GPU-Powered Processing: Runs significantly faster than the original operational system.
• GFS Initial Analysis: Starts its runs using Global Forecast System (GFS) data.
• 12 km Grid Resolution: Uses the larger continental grid spacing traditional to the parent NAM model.
• Independent Framework: Operates entirely outside of official NOAA or National Weather Service infrastructure.
Thank you, TK. Up 10 degrees from our low of 35
The word finder helped me today.
Wordle 3
Outstanding!!!
Excellent!!
Thank you both !!
Joining the 4 car
Super 4!!
Welcome aboard!!!
The WOOF NAM is obviously named after you, JP Dave. 🙂
ha ha ha. I just posted yesterday how I missed seeing it on
Pivotal and then today, there it is. Did you have anything to do with that?
It concerns me that it initializes using Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis data. But hey, there it is. 🙂 🙂 🙂
And it still uses the 12KM NAM physics. Oh well, it is what it is. Did they have good reason to do this? Or just something extremely personal?
re: RRFS model
I am reasonably pleased that they are running this earlier or at least tweaked it to run faster.
12Z run already out to hour 52. I know it is running an hour early due to change back to EDT, but it it still available faster than it previously was.
Reviewing 12Z RRFS data so far this morning. It shows that the atmosphere is cold enough aloft for snow, even in Boston, However the lower levels remain too warm.
925 MB temp at 4C or 39 F at “about” 2,500 feet
Surface at Upper 40s. Unless there is a mechanism to cool the lower levels significantly, NO WAY it snows anywhere near the coast. We would need an infusion of colder air from the North
(while there is still moisture) and/or Very heavy precip to induce Dynamic cooling. I don’t see either happening while there is moisture available.
I think your last paragraph captures the problem in an extremely marginal airmass, even marginal for elevated, inland areas.
I’m not sure we are getting a lot of precip out of this.
Perhaps the main synoptic stuff stays south and because of somewhat of a light to low-moderate 850 mb low level NE jet, we may be susceptible to heavy drizzle/mist/light rain for many, many hours.
Yup.
Take a look at the very spotting precip depicted by the RRFS
model. No real organized precipitation shield, assuming this model is correct. 🙂