Saturday PM Update

85 Comments

5:38PM

No big changes for this discussion. Upper level low pressure dominates New England through early in the week and maintains its influence even as it moves east of the region. This upper low will likely be part of a block that steers a very large late winter storm safely south of New England during the middle of next week. The track of that storm is still in question though, so that is something that will continue to be monitored of course. Looking ahead a bit, it looks like we break out of the chilly/grey pattern at least briefly at the end of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early, scattered snow showers overnight. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers by midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers, possibly late-day steadier light mix far southern areas. Low 30. High 41.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow mainly southern areas. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

85 thoughts on “Saturday PM Update”

  1. I love when it’s mixed precipitation with the rain and snow, and it really gets going with the wind. It looks beautiful.

        1. Very exciting. I am going to buy a copy. I am not home so not sure if they take Paypal so will check in the morning when I have the credit card I use online. I can’t wait to see it. I’m very excited for you. Being published is an enormous accomplishment.

            1. My SIL wrote a screen play a few years ago. It was his first attempt and rough he eventually wants to do another but a degree and a family and now a new job keep him busy. He was very excited for you also and is anxious to see your poems. With the little I have read I think you have a very bright future and I’m very happy to have your first published work and I can some day say I Knew You When 😀

  2. Thanks, TK.

    I’m especially interested in the timing and track of next week’s storm as I’m flying to the Caribbean through Newark early Friday morning. Fingers crossed for the sunny forecast above to verify…

    1. I sure hope things are out of the way by then down there. I have a decently good feeling things will go ok.

  3. Thanks tk, not much of a trend north with Tuesdays possible storm like I had thought, I didn’t think it was gonna be a huge deal but I thought the northern flank of precip would have made it up to Ct/RI and eastern mass but it appears it won’t make it past Philly, anyways have a great night everyone 🙂

  4. My friends are heading to sannibel from friday through Monday. Will the storm dip that low? Thanks

    1. Not even close Vicki. A big High pressure will be in control of pretty much the whole eastern seaboard by then. Daytime highs will probably 65-70 and overnight lows 55-60 with sunny skies. They might have a shot at some very low 70’s by the end of their trip. This all based off my interpretation of the 12z Euro.

    3. one more thing….

      There’s bust potential on my call and that would be for it to be warmer, especially toward the end of their trip and if they are inland even a bit.

  5. Thanks TK. Hoping the storm continues out to sea next week. I am ready for outdoor playgrounds and walks at the waterfront!

  6. It seems like the most probable outcome on Friday’s storm is that it is a Great Lakes cutter… 😀

  7. Nam sure looks further north with primary low. Granted its long range nam but something to think about.

  8. Lol primary low goes from PA to SC from hour 75 to 78.

    HPC says that NAM initialized with major errors so
    I guess it’s not worth much.

    1. 18z GFS was a bit further northwest and a little slower too Hadi. Would like to see that trend continue.

      NAM keeps that parent low longer – too far out anyway.

  9. Margusity just tweeted that the storm is 12-18 hrs. faster……

    Looking forward to seeing if 00z gfs confirms that.

  10. Again lets get this storm on land and then see what the models are seeing. I agree it looks much faster which is good if you want snow up here.

  11. Very interesting report on incredible amounts of snow in Northern Japan this winter:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21625702

    Personally, I’d have preferred that global warming not be mentioned in these kinds of reports. Journalists are not scientists and the observed snowfall – unless part of a statistical trend – is not likely to be associated with climate change of any kind. This is not to say that there is no global warming. I think there is, based on the earth’s warming. But, not based on record snowfall in one area of the world, or lack of snowfall in another.

  12. Joshua,

    Did you see the CNN reporter that commented on the asteroid that passed by a couple of weeks ago. She asked Bill the science guy if global warming had something to do with the asteroid coming so close to earth. Bill I think almost fell out of his chair…These media personalities are getting pretty dumb!!

    1. Yes, I heard about that. It makes the whole debate on global warming ridiculous. Of course, the debate itself is not ridiculous. I try to read up on what experts from both camps are saying. But when reporters, journalists, and others who know nothing at all about climates and meteorology start speculating wildly that global warming could be the root cause for … everything!, it drives me bonkers.

      Regardless, the snow depth in Northern Japan is impressive. That’s why I sent the link.

            1. Replied here because it will put it at the bottom…

              Just posted a quick blog update (no new discussion just a cleaned up and current forecast). Hopefully it won’t mess with the order of the comments this time. Silly WordPress.

        2. Hi Lisa. The first attempt had a typo in the email but you probably figured that out since you reposted. Thanks for sharing the video. I usually find these online but hadn’t seen this yet. My son enjoyed watching it as well. 🙂

  13. One thing I’m expecting might happen is a retrograding low. With the block in place, we could have a situation in which a low retrogrades. I’ve seen this happen in March before. It seems to occur more often in March and April. Because of the positioning/movement of the low it sometimes results in rain to north of the low and snow south.

  15. It looks like the 00z NAM jumps from Ohio to South Carolina?? Anyone else have any ideas? Did the GFS initialize wrong as well?

    1. Not sure. The 12z Euro showed almost the same thing. Ohio to Charlotte.

      new GFS almost identical path at 18z. Little stronger though. Next 24 hrs is big if this is going to start to turn in our favor.

  18. global warming is a natural process its just that we are aiding in its progression.. sorry the enviomental side of me is showing up 🙂

    1. 1 warming temperatures from the south. colder waters north. ps colder european water warmer east coast
      2 larger storms
      3 less larger storms
      4 more tropical systems
      there is a difference between the less larger storms and tropical systems.
      drought in some areas wet in others.
      ps some people think we could turn into the pacific northwest climate in the next 50 to 100 years
      This is from one of my professors not me but he is really convincing.

      1. Matt great to see the younger generation is taking it seriously. Your first statement said it all IMHO. Ignoring the ways we are aiding its progression is not an alternative. Waiting is also not an option or it will be too late in that nanosecond of time we are on this earth.

  19. Retrac I was trying to say slow it down and it phases. Lack of sleep was screwing with my mind last night.

  20. Still looks like a decent hit for DC south but I would be nervous if I was down there. Some models show 12+ but climatology says that’s nearly impossible.

  21. Its taken some time with the block in place, but the chill has worked its way into the southeast.

    Atlanta : 31F, Orlando : 39F, Miami : 52F. Its cloudy, may not rise much today.

  22. From NWS out of Upton, NY. I am starting to lean in this direction. I hope this changes since as I said last week I think this is the last chance for a good dumping of snow.
    THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
    WEEK REMAINING INVOF HATTERAS. WHILE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
    THIS COULD CHANGE…THE TREND IN THE DATA AND CLUSTERING WITH THE
    GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS THIS TRACK.

  23. Even though some models show a foot of snow I gotta agree with hadi that March and the mid Atlantic USUALLY don’t see that, sure it could snow in DC a few to even several inches but I would bet they won’t see 12+ like some r thinking,, will c 🙂

  25. That snow in southern NH, while not moderate or heavy, isnt flurries either. Manchester and Nashua, NH have both had visibilities around 1 mile the past hour.

    Why do I forget every year that Meteorological Spring does not apply to New England in early March ?? Outside of brightness in the early morning and evening now, which is nice 🙂 , the actual weather feels like a continuation of winter to me. 🙁

  26. Tk, looking at the tues. 9z panel on the NAM and it’s got that high in Greenland at 1092mb.

    1. Don’t stand under that or you may implode. 🙂

      Impressive high. Let’s see if the NAM nails it. How often do we try to verify high pressure areas? 🙂

  27. RE: Mid Week Storm

    0z Euro, CMC and Ukmet all take it OTS well South of SNE, however, the 06Z GFS
    has it more to the North and actually gives us some snow:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013030306&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=102

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013030306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=141

    NAM Looks like it want to track due East from NC.

    Not looking good to say the least. 😀

    1. I have to say O.S., it’s remarkable how consistent and in general agreement the models have been with this – and so far out. Wouldn’t this sort of consensus this far out bust for us if we were in the crosshairs? Just sayin’.

      1. We don’t have to go back to far. How about that last one
        when we were in the cross hairs. What a bust that was. no?

        Still, not looking good. 😀

  28. Awesome video lisa. Thanks. I’d seen pictures before but to feel as if I were there was tons of fun. Anyone know what the people on the side of the road were doing? Sightseeing? I think is just want to be on the other side but I’d sure like to take the trip

    Guess we could take a few cues from them on plowing techniques. 😉

  30. snowing here with sun peaking through the clouds… big flakes in my back yard out ot the marsh little flakes in my front yard.

  32. 12Z NAM brings Primary system into Ohio, then takes about 12 hours to fully
    form a secondary near the coast in North Carolina. Under ordinary circumstances,
    we’d be under the gun for sure. 😀

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    1. I know, that’s why I’m so bitter today! :).

      It’s not like we’re missing out and it’s December.

        1. Big time. If this verifies, someone is going to get a ton of snow down there. I don’t know what the records are for this time of year but….

    1. Yes, I have been watching as well. Subtle little difference, but generally
      pretty much the same.

      I have been watching panel by panel and comparing with 06Z to see if
      it have moved any more to the North. Not yet that’s for sure. 😀

  35. Emily – your book is on its way here and the site does allow for Paypal which I always like….thank you for letting me know.

  37. I think that 12Z GFS is a bit more suppressed to the South, more in line with
    the Euro, CMC and UKMET. Also, if my eyes do not deceive me, it appears somewhat
    weaker to me. It looks like it really wants to explode and then it hits a wall and deteriorates some, while it takes the jog to the SE.

    1. Snowfall map is now about zilch for us. Oh well. Also, on this run,
      Mid-Atlantic doesn’t get nearly the amounts previously advertised. 😀

  38. What a great video Lisa. Nice score.

    At first I was like, what’s that crazy person doing on the wrong side of the road!

    That snow looked like it was close to 20′ deep. Imagine the spring runoff.

  40. crazy Bastardi

    “Good news: GFS agrees with our ideas… from over 5 days ago now! Bad news GFS agrees with our ideas from over 5 days ago now?”

  41. Vicki… A quirk of WordPress. I have no idea why it does that (the comment order).

    I’m about to issue a new blog update anyway and I’ll make sure Emily sees your comment. I am chatting with her on Facebook right now. 🙂

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