The Week Ahead

261 Comments

7:20AM

Disturbance moves through this morning with clouds but no rain. A warm and humid southwesterly flow becomes established by tonight and lasts through Wednesday with a few fronts trying to push through. This combination will result in thunderstorm chances at times from tonight through Wednesday. Drier air should arrive during Thursday and remain into the start of the weekend before the next trough approaching from the west returns unsettled weather to the region later in the weekend.

More detail in the next post.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of clouds morning, more sun afternoon, clouds return evening. Highs in the 80s, some 70s South Coast/Cape Cod. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 69. High 86.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

261 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks, TK!
    Good Monday Morning! 🙂 The dew point is on the rise – 63. Enjoying the last couple of hours with the windows open. A/C weather to follow!

    1. Agree. I walked out the front door and not only could I feel the moisture,
      I could SMELL IT!!! 😀

  3. Thanks TK.
    What a great weekend that was. NWS out of Tauton is putting out a hazardous weather outlook for the region highlighting the possibility of a few strong to severe storms with the best chance across the interior Tuesday and Wednesday.

    1. JJ NWS has some pretty strong wording for both today and possibly for
      Wednesday.

      Looking at the parameters available to us commoners, I just don’t see it.
      Obviously, there is other data not available to us that suggests activity
      may be stronger than indicated by the parameters we can see.

      Thoughts? TK?

  8. Was at Lakeville yesterday on Assawompset Pond. Too COOL to even go swimming (Dry air and wind). My nieces and nephews who did go swimming were freezing. My Brother-in-Law had to put a sweatshirt on by 7PM he was so cold. Even so, it was beautiful, albeit a little too windy for my taste.

  9. Good morning!! Last day on vacation, back to work tommorrow, on a side note did anyone see the local news about residents now fighting against street performers that r too loud past 10pm at Quincy market, what is this? The Berkshires lol people r ruining boston as it has been known. residents are trying to say no college kids allowed to live in any buildings but the colleges dorms. Don’t let these people ruin or hold boston down, street performers were there well before they were, and Boston was too, don’t let 1 bad person ruin it for millions. As I say this, why r fidelity jobs being sent to Texas? I only know this bc my customers work for fidelity and we talk quite a bit. They r sending 300 jobs there in 2015, not good!!

    1. The funniest thing is when they built the convention center all the residents fought and said it’s to big, downsize the building, they found out it’s to small and have been losing many conventions to bigger convention cities, now it’ll be 3 more years of construction to make it 40% bigger lol you cant make this stuff up. Look at the casino, it’s built in Plainville but yet everyone’s going back out to vote for the casino what?? Really? Who gonna get sued? Rant over good day everyone, beautiful day!!

      1. I actually really like Marty Walsh, he’s for growth and progression. Don Chiafaro proposal was well liked for the harbor garage site. What a proposal? Nicest proposal for Boston in decades.

      2. Nobody had any answers but either wait, no change, ignore, fight it, or move, it makes me sick, anyways enough said, good day!!

          1. Ooops – and hmmmmm – no performances on the street after 10:00 = close everything. You just went from 0 to 100 without stopping in between.

      2. I do agree with u sho time and that would be nice but 17 different proposals for new dorms, and the residents fight that too 🙂

  11. Old Salty I noticed that strong wording from the NWS particularly on Wednesday but also some mitigating factors.
    FOR WED…ITS TRICKY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
    ALOFT…HOWEVER THE SAME MOIST/WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AT
    THE SFC…YIELDING 1000-2000J/KG SB CAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN.
    HOWEVER…SHEAR IS QUITE HIGH…ON THE ORDER OF 45 KT. THE ISSUE
    AT HAND IS WHETHER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION…THE DRY AIR ALOFT OR THE
    RELATIVE LACK OF A TRIGGER WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
    ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
    STRONG UPPER JET LINES UP ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW…WILL
    CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH TS. THIS WILL
    DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED HOWEVER…AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
    INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND VENTING JET
    SETUP ALOFT…IF ANYTHING FIRES…COULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD OR
    STRONGER SEVERE WX. THERE ARE JUST SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO WORK
    THROUGH.

  12. Cloudy here not humid yet at all infact we still have that breeze that just won’t go away. We all so just had some minor sprinkles move through key word minor. Just hoping for nice weather till the 15th.

  13. SPC has moved there slight risk area for today to include CT River Valley west for MA and far northwestern CT with the latest update that came out twenty minutes ago.

  14. It was real tough getting out of bed this morning with the gloomy skies and just enjoying a relaxing 4 day weekend.

    Clouds just burned off in Walpole, sun is out and skies are blue 🙂

  15. Buoy 16 NM East of Boston: BRRRR

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Jul 7 2014, 7:50 am EDT
    Mon, 07 Jul 2014 07:50:00 -0400
    Temperature: 64.0 °F (17.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 63.9 °F (17.7 °C)
    Wind: Southwest at 13.4 MPH (11.66 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1010.8 mb
    Water Temperature: 59.2 °F (15.1 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.4 m (1.31 ft)
    Dominant Period: 3 sec
    Average Period: 2.9 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: South (174 °)

    2. On that note, i read a post here the other day about how much “Arthur” impacted Nova Scotia. It sounds like the impacts there were worse than on the outer Cape and Nantucket and even on the OB down in NC which was just on the east side (windy side) of the eye wall. What this tells me is sometimes a hurricane undergoing the transition to extra-tropical can be more destructive, especially over a wider area than a tightly wound hurricane where the worst effects are felt over a much smaller area. We saw this with Sandy as well. Sandy affected such a large area of the eastern US.

    1. Thanks OS. Sure looks like that will make it in here later today.

      Maybe its just my short memory, but i cant ever remember so many potential thunderstorm days just fizzling. I know its a natural phenomenon for thunderstorms to weaken as they reach the coastal plain, but so far this season its been even more pronounced. No other day is more indicative of this as one of the days last week where we had a vicious line forming and moving quickly toward SE MA and it all but vanished when it got here and didn’t even produce a drop of rain east of Worcester.

      1. Sooner or later, probably when we LEAST expect it, we’ll
        get nailed. Time will tell. We have 3 days of opportunities here.
        You’d think we’d get at least one thunderstorm out of it.

        Not banking on it though. 😀

    2. SPC seems to think severe weather is possible from CT River Valley West with their latest update. As you mentioned Old
      Salty decent convection for this hour of day with this shortwave.

      1. I would love to post my album here but its just way too public for my liking. If it were just all of us us on here I would have no problem 🙂

  18. Special Weather Statement just come out highlighting western MA and Southern NH for the possiblity of strong to severe storms between 5 – 10 pm today.

  25. Curious to see the 9z run of the SREF and with the helicity is showing. You had some areas of 150 with the last run of the SREF.
    When you see numbers getting in that area and higher you start to pay attention. The day of the Springfield tornado back in 2011 the helicity values were in the 150 – 300 range.

    1. Also waiting on the 12Z Run of the CMC. The 06 run has some mighty
      impressive EHI numbers! For today, but most especially for tomorrow.

      I “think” there WILL be a tornado watch tomorrow for upstate NY and perhaps spilling over into Northern PA, Western VT, MA and CT. NOT is Eastern
      sections of NE though.

  26. I am also curious to see if there is an adjustment to the slight risk area for tomorrow when the update comes out around 1:30 this afternoon. Currently the SPC has us in the 5% general thunderstorm cateogory for tomorrow.

    1. WOW!!

      I just came in from lunch where I notice a significant build up of
      CUMULUS To the North and NorthWest.

      I’m sure it is related. 😀

  29. No changes to the slight risk area for tomorrow. SNE still in the 5% general thunderstorm risk.
    Slight risk for today now includes my part of CT but I think the bigger storm threat is up in parts of MA, NH, and VT.

    1. Here is the EHI tomorrow from the 12z CMC. Clearly far less than the NAM.
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=EHI&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=042
      Lift Index Values
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=LI&hh=042&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      CAPE Values
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=042&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  32. Now clicking on the CMC – RDPS 12z run here is what that is showing for tomorrow in terms of CAPE Lift and EHI.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=030

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=LI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=030

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=027&fixhh=1&hh=030

    1. Not sure what the differences are.

      However, if I recall correctly, I do believe that the RDPS is the way to go.

      Perhaps TK can inform us.

      1. OH, I might have it.

        The RDPS is run to a resolution of 10 km interpolated to 15 km)
        while the GDPS is run at a resolution of 25 km interpolated to 33 km.

        That’s MORE than TWICE the resolution!!

        So, I believe I am correct that the RDPS is the more accurate.

    1. That line shows some signs of filling in. Farther North line seems to be
      building to the SW and it looks like something is trying to get going in between.

      We shall see.

    1. Probably another case of storms NOT surviving the trip Eastward.
      Will today be different? Probably not. We shall see.

        1. I don’t think they look anemic. They are currently
          blowing up. I do, however, agree that they may go
          poof before arriving here. We shall see.

  35. I just happen to see the RDPS and I clicked on and it was slightly different.
    I am being surrounded by mesoscale discussions from the SPC one to the north and one that comes right up to the CT Boarder.
    The one in MA has a possible watch with it the other one has a likely watch with it.
    I have a feeling were going to see some wind damage reports across parts of the interior northeast later today into tonight.

    1. JJ I believe the mesoscale discussion that included the Boston area, is long
      gone and replaced by the new much farther West.

    1. I REFUSE to watch ads before I can see a video!! Sorry. 😀

      Is it the same wedding ACE posted about above?

        1. ok, DIDN’T get an add just now when I tried again.

          And it was the SAME wedding for which Ace posted earlier, only ACE posted photos and not a cool video!!

          Thanks

          1. 🙂 and shhhhhhhhh – the anemic is meant to fool mother nature. You know how women think 😉

            1. Sorry, I don’t. I haven’t been able
              to figure it out yet, no matter how hard I try. Just when I think I have it figured out, WHAM! WRONG again! 😀

              1. hahahahahahahaha – I’ll let you in on a secret – we haven’t figured it out either

    1. I’d like to know WHAT HAPPENDED?

      That was a fairly robust discussion for our area and then it shifted
      200 miles to the West just like that! Weird!!!

  39. No severe thunderstorm warnings in the watch box area but there is a severe thunderstorm warning near the MA VT Boarder.
    I don’t see severe weather making to eastern New England but I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple isolated strong severe storms for areas west of CT River Valley.

        1. Sorry, this site no longer allows me to post a link
          to the radial velocities, but at the moment the
          rotation is readily viewable. Could change quickly

  46. It seems more action today is happening outside the watch box than in it. The storm that MIGHT be producing the tornado moving east at 30mph. One thing I have noticed with these storms today is that they have been a good pace.

  47. Just reading a statement on the tornado warning no confirmation of a tornado as of 4:54. Tornado Warning goes to 5:30.

  48. Hearing thunder in distance here. Looks as if warning lifted???? Not seeing it on my radar and it was there before

  50. Rotation is still there. On one frame there appeared to be INTENSE rotation.

    I’m thinking quite STRONGLY that there was a touch down for at least a brief
    period.

    Will be interesting to see about that one.

    1. Sorry it didn’t. Just outline a small area around echo and you can readily
      discern a hook.

  52. Another storm following behind that appears to be just as intense and tracking
    a bit farther to the South.

    Looking like the ORIGINAL mesoscale discussion was SPOT ON!

  53. I am surprised a severe thunderstorm watch was not posted with the area being highlighted by the mesoscale discussion. Certainly with multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and now a tornado warning to me a watch was warranted.

  55. Still no confirmation of a tornado as of 5:18 with latest statement on tornado warning which still is set to expire at 5:30. Will be interesting to see if NWS out of Taunton allows this to expire or continues it for a little while longer.

  57. There is a tstorm warning for the cell following the one attachéd to the tornado warning

  59. 18z NAM just like 12z NAM goes bonkers with helicity values for tomorrow.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=027&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lift Index Values
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=027&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=027&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  61. New severe thunderstorm warning for areas just north of Boston until 6:15pm.
    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
    FOR NORTH CENTRAL SUFFOLK…EAST CENTRAL MIDDLESEX AND SOUTH CENTRAL
    ESSEX COUNTIES…

    AT 541 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
    OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
    LOCATED OVER BURLINGTON…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

    WINDS RECENTLY GUSTED TO 49 MPH AT HANSCOM FIELD IN BEDFORD AS THE
    STORMS MOVED THROUGH.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BOSTON…CAMBRIDGE…LYNN…SOMERVILLE…MALDEN…MEDFORD…REVERE…
    PEABODY…ARLINGTON…EVERETT…SALEM…WOBURN…CHELSEA…
    LEXINGTON…MELROSE…SAUGUS…WAKEFIELD…READING…BELMONT AND
    BURLINGTON.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
    LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

  62. Can here tons of Thunder here. Can see the massive dark clouds off to the North
    and West. I think we MISS the 1st storm, not so sure about second.

    I still say we Here that there was indeed a tornado near or a little West of
    littleton say Ayer or Harvard or Athol one of those places.

  65. Todd said unofficial reports have some rotation possible in second storm which is following the first one

      1. Hmmmm think todd. Could well be wrong. Dealing with a very sick dog so was running in and out the door

        1. If channel 4, it was ERIC. I heard him say if you live within city limits, you are safe. 😀

          1. Yea …. First report was exactly what I said here. Just outside of Boston is a misnomer. And there were several other comments…not by him…that were misleading. Station execs on 4 must be taking direction from 7

      1. Thanks Tom. Indeed, very dark to North. Vicious looking storm
        and LOUD too. 😀

  67. Very dark band of clouds in Brookline. Can see the clouds trying to reach down but not seeing any spouts or rotation.

  69. Old Salty I go back to that link you posted from the SREF earlier was showing helicity values in the 150 area for the part of MA that has had tornado warnings. To me when you start seeing those values 150 or greater its get my attention for possible rotating storms.
    Stay for those under the tornado warning.

  70. I think on the storm just north/northeast of Boston ….

    Fitchburg had a 47kt wind gust from the NE about an hour and 10 minutes ago when it passed through that area.

    I’d think that 2nd storm must be encountering cooler, more stable air leftover from the first storm. Maybe ??

    2. That would be good, since that one looks like it has a better chance of hitting Boston, Newton, Cambridge area

  71. Looks like this cell is going to stay north of us (Brighton), but the cell behind – maybe not!

  74. A microburst could sometimes do the same amount of damage as an EF0 EF 1 tornado. I am sure the NWS out of Taunton will be out tomorrow seeing what exactly happened and determine whether a tornado hit or was straight line wind damage.

  75. So, i should have had my camera with me, god darnit mother nature, was northwest of boston on my way home. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning ,trees, and wires on the roads, power is out, etc, the location of that report of the funnel cloud was basically where it was when my dad pulled over do to the heavy rain. He said look over there and there was the a cloud that looked like a funnel cloud but i could not totally make it out because of the rain

  76. Missed em both here. Could here Thunder all over the place, but NOT a drop of rain.

    All I could see from here was Darkness to the North.

    I’ll say it again, The Original SPC discussion was spot on and they SHOULD HAVE
    issued a watch. Shame on them!

  77. Keeping an eye on a severe thunderstorm that could be heading my way. Warning up till 8:15. Will be interested to see if the storm holds together as it comes into CT.

      1. Will see. Interesting NWS out of Upton, NY issued severe thunderstorm warnings for northern Fairfield and northern
        New Haven Counties until 8:15 as well. There obviously thinking the storm is going to maintain itself.
        I don’t know if you saw my link earlier Old Salty from the 18z NAM but its going bonkers again with helicity
        values. The SREF model you posted earlier today were it showed the helicity values of 150 is where these tornado
        warnings happened in SNE today.

        1. Yes, saw that link. Thank you. Sure was going bonkers.
          I believe there WILL be a tornado watch somewhere
          at least near New England, if not including parts of
          New England tomorrow. We shall see.

  78. My area was just on the edge of the storm One or two claps of thunder and lightning, a few minutes of rain and that all folks! But the storm clouds were really cool to watch 🙂
    What’s on tap for tomorrow’s storms? Can’t imagine them being much worse – maybe more widespread?

  80. Storm definelty weakened and not what is was in the Hudson River Valley of NY. Saw a couple bolts of lightning and winds gusted just a bit. Certainly nothing like the storms up in parts of eastern MA today.

  81. Still a decent storm in West Central MA chugging Eastward. Seems to have
    recently gotten stronger. We’ll see what happens with that. Seems to be tracking
    in between action, so perhaps plenty of instability left even with loss of diurnal heating.
    😀

  86. Thanks for the links Old Salty.
    Helicity of 200 over my area got my attention. I will be interested with those models show tomorrow. If these model trends continue I believe somewhere in the northeast the SPC will issue a 5% chance for a tornado. Today as we saw the tornado warnings happened not highlighted by the SPC.

    1. Indeed they have been, which contributed to their intensity.

      Tomorrow could be very interesting and instability could go through the entire
      night tomorrow. I’d rather it be DONE by nightfall.

        1. BUT, I don’t like the funky appendage on this thing.
          Given, that it does look like it is weakening. We’ll see
          if it’s just pulsing OR it’s out of gas!

  90. This latest severe warning goes until 9:30. Today by far to me has been the most active day so far this year with thunderstorms here in SNE.
    I would not be surprised if some areas once again see strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow.

    1. Near certainty there WILL be severe weather somewhere in New England. Not saying the Boston area (could be), but somewhere in New England.

    2. Will it hold till the coast? Ah that is the question. We shall see. AND if it does,
      I am projecting a possible hit, but more likely another near miss.

      1. 1 pm update: A few thunderstorms may reach into western MA and southwest NH area as early as 2-3 pm, with an increasing threat of strong thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses. The main concern continues to be locally strong to damaging straight line wind gusts along with heavy rainfall. Hail is also a possibility. Latest from the Storm Prediction Center

        Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1292

  94. Thunder in distance and at least the rain I was hoping for. I won’t complain about not having a storm considering the severity of those in the area. Hope everyone is safe

  95. Thunder and lightning. No RAIN. Now stopped.

    Just the last performance of a DYING STORM. 😀

    Still some activity out there.

        1. Ok, then I hope it rains on your garden and Hadi’s garden
          but stays away from my house. I hate rain. 😀

  99. Hey all!
    Sorry for hardly being around.
    Long and busy day, weatherwise and otherwise.
    I’ll summarize shortly!

  100. I see the significant tornado link you posted Old Salty is to my northwest but too close for comfort. Those helicity values in the 100 – 150 range for western parts of SNE.
    A situation that needs to be watched for tomorrow and as I said earlier would not be surprised if the SPC when issuing their tornado probability tomorrow issues a 5% chance somewhere in the northeast.

    1. JJ, agree totally. You are simply too close. Any shift and you’re in it.

      We shall see about tomorrow. It’s a watcher for sure!!

  101. OS. You are right re Eric. I don’t watch BZ. I just read online. I’m surprised at his ambiguity. Well not really as it is management dictated.

      1. I was watching that part. His initial report said tornado warning over Medford and the system was just outside of Boston. While that was true, it also led one to believe it was headed for Boston. The program went to break and when he returned, he said no tornado danger in Boston. It is easy when reporting to make a comment that can be taken two ways. I’m not blaming him for anything. It was simply ambiguous.

  102. OS for garden and veges in boxes the rain from the 4th was good until Saturday otherwise no way.

    1. just a reminder:

      EHI > 1 Supercell potential
      1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
      5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

  106. 06Z CMC-RDPS Explorer for today:

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  109. Still a good amount of EHI on both the latest runs of the NAM and CMC. I am glad to the SREF going down with its helicity values. There was a run last evening where it was showing 150 200 across parts of SNE. Now that is down to 100.
    SNE still in the general thunderstorm risk with the latest update from the SPC. A new update will come out just before 9AM and will be interesting to see if that is adjusted.

  110. 6z GFS CAPE Lift EHI For Today.

    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  111. NWS out of Tauton has the region in the hazardous weather outlook today and tomorrow highlighting the possibility a few strong to severe storms. Strong wind gusts the biggest threat today with hail a secondary concern.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale For Today:
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Low
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

  112. We shall see what today brings. There is so much divergence in the guidance, how
    does one ever know what’s going on.

    It’s going to be like the good ole days. Look out the window, then you’ll know
    what’s going on.

    All that said, best chance of T-storms and severe weather North and West as per usual.

    We shall see IF any storms make it to the coastal plain and IF so, do they maintain
    their intensity? That is the question.

    1. I just want a big ‘ol classic afternoon boomer, but not holding my breath. It seems nothing is getting through east of worcester and south of boston, and that trend will continue. I dont see anything different in today’s and tomorrow’s set-ups that would indicate this will change.

  114. SPC still has the slight risk west of SNE and has us in the general thunderstorm area for today with the update that came out about ten minutes ago.

      1. Well I am glad that threat is well to the west, don’t want to see any tornadoes in here, but thunderstorms? yes please!

  115. Although we did see the slight risk shift yesterday further east with later updates. Those severe storms that happened in parts of eastern MA were not in slight risk area yesterday so just because were not under a slight risk does not mean we can’t get strong to locally severe storm.

  117. Good morning.

    The heat/humidity have returned to this area. At 10am …. Temp : 87F, Dewpoint : 74F.

    We are off to the camping part of our adventure tomorrow on the Outer Banks.

    No electric hookups, no internet. 12 days, I’ll be good for probably 3 anyway, then will have to search out something with wifi.

  119. 12z NAM EHI Values For Today
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=009

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=009&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=009&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=009&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=009&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  120. No way it makes 90 today. Way too much cloudiness.
    Also where is the convection? Great lakes!!!

    1. I agree about the temps. Not saying im not relieved but we are just not hot or unstable enough to support severe weather. We havent seen any of those truly HHH days with temps in the mid 90s with dp’s in the 70s that would be enough to fuel the storms. I don’t think any storms of any kind make it anywhere close to the area today. They will be confined far western and central NE

  123. Tk thinking of doing a day trip to the vineyard on Friday thoughts on weather for that day, thanks also tomorrow for possible whale watch out of Plymouth thanks

    1. When I went out at 11:30AM I would have bet ANY SUM that there would
      be NO WAY it hit 90. Looks like it just may. Oh well.

    1. Very good, busy as usual with kids and work. Congrats on the wedding but I think I said that on FB 🙂

      1. Good to hear! Thanks 🙂 As much as I love winter and snowstorms there is so much more to do in the summer months with family and friends.

        1. Speaking of that, I know we always talk about it, but before the good weather months are over, we should really try and have a blog party somewhere 🙂

        3. Totally agreed!! No ones complaining, after the winter we just had, I don’t even want to think about snow, mild winter is in store. Will c 🙂

            1. Lol!!! What a suprise coming from that boob, don’t believe anything this guy says, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while 🙂 hope your having a nice day hadi

  130. With what few storms there are out there, interesting that the storm direction
    is totally different today. 😀

  131. It’s dropped two degrees in pembroke to 86 boston hit 90. Water at the beach was freezing but I went in twice as I loved being at the beach but now home at my pool not by choice. Two and a half hours at the beach and my wife and son I want to go home to pool. It’s one of those times where it’s hard to agree on things to do .

  132. Will see if any storms develop where the SPC has there latest mesoscale discussion. No part of New England is in a slight risk for severe storms.

  133. SPC has removed the Mesoscale Discussion for near our area. Probability of
    Watch was 40%. Well it’s now 0%

    This time I agree. 😀

    NOTHING in Eastern sections. NOTHING today and NOTHING tomorrow. 😀

  135. OMG I just got a phone call. The Caller ID gave my name and phone number as the caller. My fax messes up sometimes and with all of the doctors etc calling I can’t not answer. It was one of those “Hi This is Rachel from cardholder services……..” robo caller things. Is that legal for them to use your own number as caller id?

  136. I guess they have what is called down here, “the Piedmont trough”.

    Under it is an area of lift, to the west of it, its hot and dry with more of a west, southwest wind. To the east of it, its hot and humid with more of a SE wind. Where the trough sits, those opposing winds meet and there are usually frequent thunderstorms.

    Today, you could have had Raleigh, NC at 98F with a 58F dewpoint or Wilmington at 92F with a 70F dewpoint … these create heat indices of 97F and 98F respectively. Happy choosing. 🙂

  137. So I heard people talking about winter. I know it’s only July 8, but this coming winter will not have a lot of snow, nor will it have all that much cold.

    Now, focusing on the nearer term, the blog is updated and features the following:
    * Heat through tomorrow, limited storm chances.
    * Drier Thursday-Friday.
    * Humidity creeps back in this weekend, fair Saturday, showers by Sunday PM.
    * Next week looks cloudy and showery to start, then cooler than normal by midweek.

      1. R u gonna have a cow hadi? Imagine 26.3 inches for the entire year, Vicky??!! Put it in, that’s my total for this winter season. Good day 🙂

        1. How did you manage to come up with 26.3?

          Contest is not open yet. 🙂

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