The Week Ahead

100 Comments

6:23PM

SNE DISCUSSION…
Some media will probably still try to play up the “big vortex” dominating the weather in the US this coming week. While it’s true that a fairly strong closed-off low pressure area will be the rule, and some of its weather includes early frozen precipitation and cold air (mainly central USA), what it will serve to do for the Northeast is keep the pattern on the mild side, with 2 disturbances passing by, one early Wednesday and another late Friday. Shower threats will exist in advance of and with the passage of each of these (late Tuesday to early Wednesday and again during Friday and Friday night, based on current timing). By the weekend, the closed low will have weakened and lifted northeastward into Canada, being replaced by a strong west-to-east jet stream. By early the following week, things may get a little more interesting once again as the overall pattern will be mild and a little wetter, and with a potential threat from the tropics. Long way off – no worries now. That will be addressed in due time.

SNE FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost far inland valleys. Lows in the 30s inland valleys, 40s elsewhere but around 50 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W dropping to under 10 MPH, calm in some valleys.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers mainly far northwest of Boston in the afternoon. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered showers morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible mainly afternoon and night. Lows around 50. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

100 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK!

    The CPC has it quite warm & quite wet for the forseeable future…as you have been predicting all along. Your long range forecasting has been spot on so far! 🙂

    After reading Eric’s most recent blog, my confidence in him has literally plummeted and even Barry’s winter forecast of well below normal temps has me puzzled as well. I am glad that Barry at least held off on any snowfall predictions until he gets more info.

    1. I do admit that my early chattering about the coming winter back in late Summer was not something I generally do, but was based on a confident feeling about the long term pattern, but of course I made it clear that that was in no way my official long range call for the Winter. Of course any medium or long range forecast is going to have a healthy share of uncertainty and a fairly high risk of partial or total failure, but I will do as I always do and wait until I can get the best information possible before making what I consider my official call next month. That said, I would hesitate to call for a very cold winter at this point. That does not mean that very cold weather cannot occur. Even mild winters can have some big time cold shots. There’s a whole lot to work out yet.

  4. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which of the following four air masses was stuck over NE last week giving us cool and damp air?
    A. Maritime tropical air
    B. Maritime polar air
    C. Continental tropical air
    D. Continental polar air

    The correct answer is B.

    1. That’s how you start a game! Brady looked more fired up than I’ve ever seen him. Long way to go though, they’ve got a big task tonight.

  7. Very nice day today. Marching band show down in worcester ma … bunch of college bands, Fun day and good weather. .
    Now , sorry to bring this up… but there we go, solid play by the patriots, OFFENSE AND DEFENSE.. they finally used Revis the way they should. Brady is Brady. it was indeed the oline and nothing else… you patriot,coaching and Brady haters still gonna hate? and yes im calling you out hadi for calling me immature

    1. Over the last week I have talked to many long-time Pats fans and just fans of football in general to get their opinions, and 100% of them told me that the biggest problem was the offensive line.

    2. Matt a bit ago on here I said I’d listened to a long explanation by my SIL of how the players were being used. One primary example was Revis. I agree with you.

      1. Adding I agree with you players were not being used as they should and not necessarily that it was only that….just a good part of it is that

  8. Call me out all you want Matt. I was cheering for the Pats and Brady. Still nothing changes my mind on BB.

  11. Good win last night, they absolutely had to have it. There’s still some heart and fight left in that team after all. I’m not ready to jump on the bandwagon just yet though. I need to see them sustain this. They obviously put a lot into this game and came out with a lot of energy and emotion, put pure emotion is not sustainable for 11 more games. Talent still needs to be a major contributing factor and i still don’t think they have the talent to run with the real horses in the AFC. Yes, after 3 games, the Bengals were one of the top teams in the league coming into last night’s game, but lets be honest, they’re still Marv Lewis and the freakin’ Cincinnati Bengals who have won nothing. Remember the Atlanta game early last year? We all thought that was the game to measure where the Pats were and it was a big win for them, until Atlanta went on to one of the worst records in the league. I’m not nearly as down on them as I was before last night, but still not too high.

    1. If you were a patriots fan u wouldn’t be jumping on and off the bandwagon, (casual fan) but that’s ok 🙂

      1. Don’t get me wrong, I like the Pats and have followed them since i was a little kid, but i wouldn’t call myself a “fan” in the literal sense of a fan(atic). “Fanatic – a person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal, especially for an extreme religious or political cause.” I am able to look at it from many different points of view and have objective opinions. If being on the bandwagon means being happy with the team when they play as a team and up to their capabilities, and jumping off the bandwagon means being critical of the team when they don’t live up to expectations, then i guess you’re right.

  12. Good morning. Another beautiful day on tap. A bit cool this morning, but, hey we’re into October and it’s to be expected. 😀

    Re: Last Night’s Game

    Amazing what can happen with some protection for Brady.

    I must say I am Thoroughly IMPRESSED!!! There is hope after all. 😀

    Nice job of getting their act together and against a decent team no less.

  13. It was also evident to me on several occasions, Belichick was calling the offensive plays on the field. He must have told McDaniels to take the week off and grabbed the clipboard and worked with the offense this week. Totally different game plan to just go right at the Bengals. None of this trickery and dinking around. They used the RUN to set up the pass and it worked. It was a thing of beauty. I have no respect for Belichick the man, but Belickick the coach is still one of the best.

      1. Btw, Brady spread the ball around. I may have missed one, but
        I saw passes completed to the following (in no particular order):

        Gronk
        Wright
        LaFell
        Edelman
        Dobson
        Vareen
        Devlin

        very Nice to see that. The Pat’s are the most productive when that happens. Opponents never know where the ball is going.

        1. 100% agree. It was def a team effort. Its good to see and a step in the right direction to the Pats football we all know.

  14. Did it get down to 32 degrees in some spots last night? I swear i saw some frost on the rooftops early this AM

    1. I don’t know. At my house in JP, which is about 6 miles SW of Logan, it was
      42 at 7AM or so. So somewhere out there in the burbs I imagine it could have
      happened. What about Norwood Airport?

      Here are a few OBS from Norwood:

      06 06:53 Calm 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW002 32 31
      06 05:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 31 31
      06 04:53 Calm 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW002 32 31
      06 03:53 Calm 1.00 Fog/Mist VV002 31 31

      So there’s your answer.

      1. Disclaimer, this is a DT creation. I feel like his predictions and analysis are correct just a tick above 50% of the time

  17. It’s just amusing see the fans flip flopping around like a kiver fish, most of New England wasn’t introduced to big boy football until 2001, and it shows 🙂

    1. Charlie, see my response above about the bandwagon. I have been watching and following the Pats since just before Bledsoe was drafted. I was in 4th grade, my first Starter jacket 🙂 I remember the struggles of this team especially during Bledsoe’s early years.

    2. Charlie, It seems you are confusing criticism of team management with criticism of the team. A true fan, it seems, would be incredibly upset that a QB of Brady’s caliber had qualified players replaced, in too many cases, with rookies who have not panned. This is occurring at at a point in his career where he needs more support for obvious reasons – none of which are criticisms of Brady since aging is out of all of our control.

      Brady is also uncharacteristically frustrated with the way things were being handled. Somehow I do not believe he fits into your definition of “casual” fan. A different coaching approach last night showed that he is correct and many of the true fans recognized that it was not the fault of the team or Brady.

      The doubt comes when we are not sure that management gets the message since they have missed it far too frequently of late and because fans totally support the players.

  18. I’ve been following this team since it started and played it’s games at
    BU’s Nickerson Field, Harvard Stadium, Fenway Park and the shit hole Schaefer stadium with the Ass freezing aluminum bleacher seats. I’m not flip-flopping, just calling it as I see it. If I see Shit, I call shit.

    1. As nice as Gillette Stadium is, it’s too bad that the Patriots could never build a stadium right here in the city of Boston, or at least in an area close by with adequate public transit.

      2. I always chuckle when they show camera shots of the sights in Boston during prime time home games. I bet people who don’t follow the Pats or fans of the other teams don’t even know the stadium is 30 miles south of the city.

        1. Are u kidding, not knowledgable football fans, who doesn’t know the Patriots play in Foxboro? C’mon am

          1. I never said knowledgeable football fans, but i know of a few people who are fans of other teams from other areas of the country who had no idea Foxboro was that far away from Boston. National broadcasts make it seem as though the stadium is in Boston.

  19. No more football talk for me 🙂

    Not a cloud in the sky, beautiful day!! Was in the white mountains sat and there just peaking, beautifull!! Enjoy the day 🙂

    1. How are the colors up there? This is the first year in a long time i wont be able to get up there for a weekend. Curious if the colors are any more vibrant than they will be around here. Yes, beautiful day out there today 🙂

      2. I don’t doubt anyone knowledge of football on here, I find it frustrating with some fans that jump off and on the bandwagon, anyways take it easy 🙂

  20. Also, if I am not mistaken, the Patriots would play some of their exhibition/preseason games in Worcester.

    OS – Since you are the “senior” here, can you confirm this absolutely useless football trivia? 😉

    1. Philip,

      I wish I could confirm that. That one escapes me as well.

      Here is what I found. I have no idea about the accuracy of this site:

      All the Cities That Have Staged a Neutral-Site NFL, AAFC, or AFL Exhibition Game

      Second home to… The league team that played the most exhibition games at the neutral site. A blank cell indicates that multiple teams played the most at the listed location.

      Amherst MA 1 game 1960 1960
      Beverly MA 1 game 1935 1935 Boston Redskins 1 game
      Boston MA 18 games 1927 1968 New York Giants 5 games
      Chestnut Hill MA 4 games 1964 1970 Boston Patriots 4 games
      Holyoke MA 1 game 1946 1946 Boston Yanks 1 game
      Lowell MA 5 games 1962 1966 Boston Patriots (AFL) 5 games
      Lynn MA 5 games 1932 1964 Boston Yanks 2 games
      Malden MA 1 game 1934 1934 Boston Redskins 1 game
      Quincy MA 1 game 1932 1932 Boston Braves 1 game
      Somerville MA 2 games 1934 1935 Boston Redskins 2 games
      Springfield MA 3 games 1933 1941
      Waltham MA 1 game 1935 1935 Boston Redskins 1 game
      West Springfield MA 1 game 1926 1926 Los Angeles Buccaneers 1 game
      Worcester MA 1 game 1960 1960

      Here’s the site:

      http://www.footballgeography.com/nfl-exhibition-games-played-at-neutral-sites/

  21. I used to work with a guy that has been to every Pats home game since they began….except one (wedding). 🙂

    1. Well I believe it is safe to say he is a fair weather fan……….or perhaps we on this blog are all fair weather fans, along with not so fair weather fans. Great, TK —- now you have gone and completely confused me.

    2. Unfortunately no. Aside from the possible tropical event mid-month its pretty boring weather wise.

      Speaking of that event, 12Z GFS change its tune any on that?

    2. FWIW,

      The 12Z CMC (GEM (CMC – Global Environmental Multiscale Model); 0.24°×0.24° (~25km) forecast grid)

      Goes out to 240 hours and here it is then:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014100612/gem_mslp_wind_eus_41.png

      Here are the 250MB forecast winds at that time. You figure out where it
      goes. My guess is that it crosses Florida and comes out East of the Bahamas
      and from there either keeps going ots or slight chance it get picked up by the approaching trough and moves up the coast, most likely too far off shore
      to affect any land in a big way. We shall see. Still TOO FAR out there.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014100612/gem_uv250_eus_41.png

      1. From the SPC re: Wed AM:

        …SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY…
        AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z BUT WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
        LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WHICH WILL SHUNT INSTABILITY OFFSHORE BY 15Z. UNTIL THEN…LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
        MAY OCCUR.

  25. Any word on if the EURO is still expected to have the same issues this winter as it did last winter? Any “upgrades” in its future before the snow season starts?

    1. Beats me. We’ll find out the first time it predicts 2-4 feet of snow for us, only to have it go poof! 😆

      1. This tells me that the whole threat was interesting, but in the end
        the Warm sector and the triple point are more likely to be to
        the South and Eastof the area off shore. We shall see.

    1. The GFS doesn’t usually get this very well. Don’t know why. Perhaps due
      to the lower resolution?????

  29. The SREF has done well in my opinion. When the area is highlighted in the red on the significant tornado parameter I take notice. When the area was highlighted back in July we had the EF2 tornado up in Revere and the EF0 in Wolcott, CT.

  31. This is certainly something to keep an eye on. It is not unheard to have thunderstorms reaching severe levels in October here in SNE. Back in October 1979 there an F4 tornado in Windsor Locks, CT.

    1. I think the Boston area is at the Northern extent of any risk. Actual risk
      “may” be more to the South. However, the >1000 Cape from the NAM
      lends credence to that risk and that Cape extends up and just Beyond the
      Boston area, covering most of Eastern SNE.

      What worries me more than anything is this potential risk comes
      in the middle of the night. Very unusual around these parts.

      18Z NAM 2M temperature is 65-70 across the area right through the night.
      Pretty humid air. With the helicity and instability, should any storms get going, the risk for rotation is there.

  32. Earlier this PM discussion from NWS doesn’t quite mention spin ups, but it’s almost there:

    HELICITY IN
    THE 0-1KM LAYER IS ELEVATED AND TOTALS IN THE UPPER 40S SUGGEST A
    POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDER. IF THIS CONVECTION CAN TAP THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET…THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CONVECTION.

    I think they mean the “Total Totals ” parameter, which is another severe weather
    parameter.

    What they are leaving out is the possibility of a spin up, because the very wording
    they DID use, strongly suggests the possibility of a spin up.

  33. Gary ME NWS office HAS MENTIONED the word TORNADO:

    WITH DECENT VEERING AS YOU MOVE UP TO
    500 MB. ASSUMING LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY…THERE IS DECENT
    ELEVATED INSTABILITY…AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE SFC…WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN OUT OF THESE SHRA/TSRA. SHOULD WE BREAK INTO THE SFC WARM SECTOR IN THE PRE-DAWN THRU MID MORNING HOURS WED…THERE WILL BE MORE SFC INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LVL HELICITY VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE /0-1 KM APPROACHING 200/ COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ALSO…HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LKLY WITH ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA.

  34. 18Z NAM, ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

    06Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036

    09Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=039

    12Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=042

    15Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=045

    CLEARLY a situation that needs to be monitored. This certainly could change.
    We shall see.

  37. From NWS out Of Taunton
    TUESDAY…SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY
    TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING
    FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO.

    THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
    ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
    50 TO 60 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION…0-3 KM HELICITY IS STILL FORECAST
    TO BE OVER 200 M2/S2 BY THE END OF THE DAY. SURFACE BASED CAPE ON
    THE OTHER HAND BARELY REACHES 500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
    THIS WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT GOOD FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE
    SHOWERS…AS WELL AS THE OUTSIDE SHOT FOR AN ISOLATED WEAK
    TORNADO.

  39. I’m a little concerned about Wednesday morning. The timing may be our only friend here. Though it may mess up the view of the total lunar eclipse.

    New blog is posted!

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