Don’t Get Too Used To It

186 Comments

7:43PM

COMMENTARY…
Reprieve. Melting. Mild. Spring? Sorry folks, it’s still Winter, and will be for another 11 days on the calendar and who knows how long in the overall weather pattern. But despite the couple of milder days now, the overall pattern is still a chilly one, and will not be absent of late season snow threats. Many that are lulled into the false sense of security will be jolted out of it by the reality of a colder air mass arriving Thursday and a potential storm this coming weekend, and more “fun” to follow next week.

SUMMARY…
Arctic air has retreated northward into Canada and will stay there for a while. A storm system will track across the US Southeast and off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Tuesday night and the northern edge of its precipitation shield will make it into southeastern New England, but this time it will be mild enough so that it rains instead of snows. After that exits Wednesday, a trough and then a cold front pass through the region. The trough will dry the air out, but with the colder air hanging back until the cold front passes, it will allow the temperature to break 50 in some locations for the first time in a long while on Wednesday. This short lived “warm-up” will be followed by a couple chilly and dry days Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, a slow-moving and evolving storm system will bring unsettled and chilly weather. It’s not quite clear what form the precipitation will take at any given time, but both rain and snow are probable. The details will be ironed out as the time draws closer. This system should exit by Monday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s most areas but around 30 across Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-48, mildest interior MA. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, steadiest southeastern MA and RI. Lows 35-42. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Clearing. Highs 40s Cape Cod, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 38.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow and rain. Low 30. High 39.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow. Low 35. High 40.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 32. High 43.

186 thoughts on “Don’t Get Too Used To It”

  2. Thanks TK !!

    Thats what I find neat about the weather …..

    Complete transition in forecasting thought needed …..

    2 or 3 weeks ago, cold was an after-thought because it was such a guarantee. It was mostly focused on dynamics, convergence zones, banding, etc …..

    Now, all of a sudden, its climatology, how cold the column is, precip intensity, etc …

    I keep trying to make this thought process change as I see what the models are thinking.

  3. One thing of note that spring is coming, The skunk count (smell that is) is on a huge rise North if city! The 5AM drive is enjoyable with the wiff!

  4. Tom, I’ve learned a lot from your thoughts! You have a great insight with local observations!

    2. Agree re Tom. Not only insight but ability to convey in a way that is easy to understand at all levels.

  5. Not sold at all on the 50’s Wednesday. Outside of Cape and Islands, I am thinking a region wide 47-52.

  6. It was around 5:30 pm and there was a good deal of shade in front of my house.

    In the shade, while the temps were still reporting in the low-mid 40s, I am positive that the top layer of snow had refrozen.

    I’m thinking it was the low dewpoints doing the trick.

    1. I noticed the same thing in Chelmsford about an hour ago. Air temp. was 37, but there was black ice on the pavement. Things like that are very interesting to me for some reason.

  7. Question for the group, what are your thoughts for flooding this early spring? Starting to think about 1987? I believe that was the year with serious flooding in Eastern MA but not to the extent of 2006. I was on state active duty (with National Guard) that time (06) for New Hampshire.

    1. I think I remember 1987 for the Merrimack River in Lowell.

      Some of the big rivers, like the Merrimack can be dependent on what happens further north in central and northern New England. And, in spite of whats happened down here, I dont think central and northern New England have an unusual amount of snow on the ground, relative to “normal”.

      I honestly think there’s no more or less opportunity for flooding vs other springs.

      A fairly dry March and April and that sun can melt this snow and dry the ground pretty quickly and effectively before the vegetation is back.

      1. Agree. Flooding will likely not be a major issue. Thankfully, we’ve had a very gradual melt thus far. Furthermore, we’re not having a lot of rainstorms. Ponding, puddles, will be issues for a while. But, I don’t think flooding will.

        1. Except some rivers….as I said to diamond….were unusually high already from the December rain.

    2. Diamond good comment….in spring 1969 (maybe 68 as I’m old and fuzzy) the flooding was so bad they were sandbagging the Charles in Boston.

      The Sudbury may well flood this year. It was over rt 20 in what may have been 1987 where they had to close 20 in Wayland completely. A few years ago it flooded Pelham island road wayland and they used duck boats and 20 in wayland center. The river was high in December and I mentioned a bit ago on here that I am worried about this year.

        1. You are right. We were trying to get back here from the FL keys and it was horrendous. I had to check an odd connection to know the year

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Wednesday will be relatively mild, but should feature less melting than today due to less sun. Also, a `spring’ feature as coastal areas and the Cape will be cooler than the interior.

    Today was a strange day. I did not feel warm this morning during my run or late afternoon as I walked home. This morning in particular felt cold, and the path was as icy as it’s been throughout the past 6 weeks. Nevertheless, it clearly got into the mid 40s in Boston during the day, and melting was evident. I think the wind made it feel colder than it was. But, despite the sun and milder temps it did not have the feel of a pleasant March day.

  9. I remember it was the Ipswich River that went way over it’s banks. I was 12 years old and have memory of it going over the choate bridge crossing 1A down to the (neck) unreal!

  10. I’m confused about Wednesday. I’ve seen some mets say it’ll be sunny like today. I’m more doubtful about that than I am 50+ degrees. I see Wednesday as being a cloudy day, with some sun but not a lot. Am I reading things the wrong way?

    OS, As you pointed out, New England is the only corner of the Lower 48 with any real cold. I guess this is what weather.com was alluding to with “big changes ahead.” I admit weather.com was right. This is a significant big change for many. Consider a place like St. Paul: teens and 20s for highs last week, 60s this week. It is well above normal in most of the country, and only normal in NE if you include all of NE (colder north, warmer south).

  12. I must say the 18Z GFS did a complete about face and now has a Lakes Cutter.
    Make up your mind already! I don’t see how that is possible.

    I think the GFS Paid some money and only FARTED!

    What a farce!

    1. That’s not really a true lakes cutter. It just has a more northward displaced system and more emphasis on the initial low pressure area. It’s all in the handling of the upper low.

  13. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2h2 hours ago
    Ugh…just going to go ahead and cover my eyes looking at latest Euro Weeklies. Advertising a very cold 2nd half of March.

      1. Very difficult to discern the 850MB temperatures, but I think
        this is warm and a crap load of rain. Would be very bad.
        The 540 line is almost in Canada.

  17. I had originally thought Wednesday high temp projections seen on tv were too high.

    Perhaps not …… It is currently 40F in International Falls, MN ….. symbolic of the very mild air sitting ahead of the cold front coming through late Wednesday.

      1. Well, the air mass definitely has that potential.

        How the existing snow cover affects that …… and, if there’s a part of the afternoon where the winds are light enough that a couple hour sea breeze could overpower the land breeze, that might be 2 reasons, Logan in particular, is cooler than most.

        But, based on that 40F at International Falls, I’m certainly more open to the 50s than I was yesterday.

  18. 32 in Boston already not bad considering what we have been through . Some light rain moving through after 8 tonight.

  19. I’m wondering if fog will be a player tonight with this weak system moving through . If so that can do a number on devouring snow. Fog = snow eater.

  20. Good morning.
    Wow! Have things ever evolved. All three biggies, GFS, CMC and EURO now
    ALL advertise a Lakes Cutter for the weekend, with varying degrees and locations
    of too little too late coastals.

    GFS and CMC “barely” Lay down enough snow for the record. We need 1.9 and they
    paint just barely 2 inches, so that record is in jeopardy, at least with this event.

    Things could change, but looking more and more like a RAINORAMA!!

    I’m fine with that as long as it doesn’t cause any major flooding issues.

    1. Yes and no. 00z ECWMF much more active than the 00z GFS. The only major storm GFS depicts for 10 days after this weekend is warm wet around the 25th. Otherwise just some weak shortwaves meandering through. Colder than average yes, but not necessarily a train of storms.

      Still expect this weekend to be weaker, more progressive, and colder than depicted. Just Tuesday. Plenty of time to work out details.

      1. Thanks JMA I’m realy thinking Boston will not see accumulating snow on Saturday. Snow flying in the air maybe but guessing an all rain storm, just my opinion .

  22. Even though I have made the analogy myself, it is a meteorological myth that fog “eats” snow. Typically the fog is associated with strong surface warm advection. The warming air is what is melting the snow. “So why does it happen and the surface temp stay the same?” Funny you should ask. Think of it as energy from the warning air going into melting the snow while the snow is trying to cool the air around it.

  23. Verizon FiOS has apparently permanently replaced the The Weather Channel (and Weatherscan) with AccuWeather in its line-up. Saw Bernie Rayno this morning instead of Al Roker.

    1. Well I think Bernie is a far superior Met to Roker. OH wait, Roker
      is a weather presenter, not a Met. 😀

      1. Apparently a “presenter” with great knowledge of climate change and other issues. Oh and he is really good at media hype too. 😉

  24. Just was out across the street to the local bank.
    WOW! is it ever mild. Was very comfortable with no coat or jacket.
    Sure it was only for a few hundred feet, but is really nice out there.
    Previously thicker high cloudiness has really thinned such that the SUN
    is shining rather brightly through the very thin deck left up there.

    1. Agreed OS. I am at a bank in Brookline and just ran out to my car to feed the meter and was comfortable without my coat. Two weeks ago when I was here I would not have even considered going out to feed the meter without my coat. Come on spring!!!

  25. Hmmm Logan is 44 and Calm at 11AM.
    SEA BREEZE? Sure looks like it’s coming. Logan will be in upper 30s soon. 😆

  26. The title should have said, bye bye snow 🙂 thanks Tk 🙂

    Extremely busy, spring season is about to start, tomorrow is our 1st day out, should be in the low and mid 50’s 🙂

  28. Loving this weather. Meltdown is on big time. I’m sure we’ll see more flakes before the month is out, and I still think the snow record falls, but we have turned the corner for sure.

    1. Yup regardless if it snows or not winter is just about OVER!!!! I love the sound of that.

  29. In terms of big time cold and snow yes we turned the corner. I would not rule out any snow or cold weather before the month is over. If we get snow over the weekend this is vintage March couple mild days and then few days later winter is back.

  30. We are in a typical New England March weather pattern. Winter last week, mild this week, and then winter appears to be back again with a vengeance next week.

    Just looked at the 0z Euro and boy is it frigid next week with highs in the 30’s Tuesday, 20’s Wednesday, and teens Thursday (!) with a snowstorm over the same time period.

    Snowmap for next week:
    http://i.imgur.com/GkYTJ6E.jpg

  31. Folks, enjoy these couple of days, but don’t be lulled into thinking we have flipped the switch yet or you may be very disappointed. Turned a corner, maybe, but we are not done yet. Not just saying that because I enjoy winter weather, but because the long range guidance looks cold and potentially active after this week.

    1. A cold day in march is not like a cold January day. If it snows it’s gone quick. Winter is almost over. Will it snow ? It can and might . Will we have a cold day sure but winter is almost over it has no choice.

  32. Its nice outside today, but there is only one purpose for days like today and that is to melt snow. Other than that, i have no use. Warmer? yes. More light end of the day? yes. But its still winter and there’s still significant snowpack, i.e, there’s nothing to do outside to take advantage of the nice weather. Days like these lull us into thinking spring is near, lol. And there’s your glass half empty thought for the day 😀

  35. Finally!, it doesn’t look like we live in the white mountains anymore, we’ve lost about 2/3rds of our snow from a few days ago. Don’t ever underestimate the snowmelt that can occur in March. That sun is strong, and with temps near 50. This is fantastic news 🙂

  36. Thanks Charlie……243 days until Meteorological Winter! After June 21st the sun angle will be decreasing and Winter will be fast approaching

      1. OS, how has the accuracy of that model this winter, I think it has been 60-75% on. Anyway, Looks like a clash of the atmosphere off and on the next 14 days and anything is possible. Both large scale rain/snow events. I love spring and this the reason!

        1. Here is a chart indicating the accuracy of the CMC
          this Winter. The last month or so it has been
          OFF the charts GOOD.

          Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 55m55 minutes ago
          CMC global forecast skill over past 1-2 months is astounding — uncorking amazing string of 0.90 or better

          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_wO-EnUYAE4ANg.png

          SO, I would NOT totally and completely dismiss it.
          Could it be wrong? OF course, but it should be
          something we watch.

  38. Kidding aside, everyone is in such a rush for each season to end and the next to begin. Life is too short. Let’s enjoy what each season has to offer, even if it may be unpleasant for some. The more we wish for spring and summer the closer the next winter becomes.

    1. Sure is nice out and I’ve got the Detroit/Philly game on (spring training, Sox fan don’t get me wrong). Reading about snow, rain and warm temps. Over load!! Danger, Danger!!

  43. 2PM Logan Obs

    10 12:54 E 5 10.00 Overcast FEW210 OVC280 39 27

    That’s 39 Degrees!!! That’s what an East wind with 36 Degree Water out there
    will do!

  45. 12Z Euro is so whacked out I couldn’t even look at it.
    It shows a Western Lakes cutter followed 24 hours later with a low
    in the Gulf of Maine????????????

    I hate those damn 24 hour increments. INSANITY!!

    1. Seams in the last week or so that the GFS and EURO can’t fight themselves out of a wet paper bag. GFS was spot on all winter until mid Feb and Euro, Well? That’s why early spring is enjoyable to follow!

      1. This weekend “could” be a PRIME example. We shall see.

        I will say one thing regarding the GFS.
        The 12Z run “appears” to have come back to Earth Some
        as it starts its Southward Trend.

        Actually beginning to look more like the CMC.

        The atmosphere seems to have these models Stumped
        for this weekend.

          1. I read a tweet somewhere along the line today from some Met I think that said basically in the Spring THROW AWAY the models. 😀 😀

            Don’t know if it was in jest or not, but I did see it.

            1. Well maybe somewhat in jest but as a veteran forecaster, I can tell you it’s not far from the truth.

  46. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2h2 hours ago
    60° possible on Wednesday!? Perhaps. Temperatures we haven’t seen since December 1st, 2014, roughly 100 days ago.

    1. And Pete called it first last night saying some spots could hit 6o on Wednesday and looking like a rain storm for Saturday but I’ll keep an eye on it. Pete will win both those calls.

  47. What the bleep is this? anyone?

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5m5 minutes ago
    ECMWF Bombshell rude shock to NE with snow/ice event Fri into Saturday. Certainly On the menu, dont know If I amy ready to order it yet

  48. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago
    Warning clients though, and have been doing so loudly, this warmup this week is false spring as winter has 1 more 2-3 week attack left

  49. Greetings. An update a little later.
    No 60 degree temps on Wed but I have given into plenty of 50+ readings except Cape Cod.
    Snowy surprise may be in store at the end of the weekend system. Will not be all rain. As one of my bosses and someone I learned very much from used to say “It’s easier to snow coming out of warm than it is coming out of cold (especially in the Spring).”

      1. I have not made a final call on precip. type. The initial call was some snow front side if it starts early enough, rain and areas of mixing during most of the event, and possible mix to snow for at least part of the region at the end.

        Sitting here on Tuesday, it’s still too early to make even close to a final call on precipitation type.

  50. It’s a little amusing that today’s 50+ readings are all in locations that we used to call “snow reflection warm spots”. 😉 Most of them are probably reading a little too warm. I used to have this problem when I first set up my first remote sensor for temp. All my morning and midday temps were too warm whenever snow was on the ground and the sun had been shining. Had to relocate it.

    1. Manchester, Nashua, Bradley, Lawrence, and Marshfield (where the temperature sensor has never been quite right for over 25 years).

    2. I’m using several thermometers….two sensors on the weather stations. Another a Taylor mercury thermometer that has the calibration checked regularly. One sensor registered 52.3. Another registered 50.7. The Taylor registered 50 even so I went in between but would be happy to defer to the Taylor and say 50 🙂 Dropping now to 49.7.

      1. Taylor is a good thermometer. I got up to 48 here, which is 2 degrees warmer than I expected. 🙂

        1. It was the one Todd and Pete advised I get when I was a weather spotter for 7. It hasn’t failed me and Mac with a degrees in math and chemistry and having worked as a chemist is used to calibrating exactly so I have faith.

          Now to get him to stop obsessing when his watch is off by a second….literally, I mean that 🙁

  51. OS, the 12z Euro sends the weekend low from Ohio east across SNE and then into the Gulf of Maine. Bastardi must be referring more to CNE and NNE with his post as there is some up front snow and ice in SNE but it changes over to rain. More snow and ice the further north you go in latitude.

    I will say that both the 12z Euro and GFS are colder and have ticked south. GFS ensembles are also south and colder than the operational.

    12z Euro still has the clipper with accumulating snow for Tuesday. GFS has it too but is not as robust.

    The 12z GEM is clearly an outlier with its second storm/snow bomb scenario for Sun night/Monday.

  52. Not pleasant in Boston today. Not in my book. It’s a cool day, not a mild one. I don’t like the seabreeze. It’s like the bully at school who’s constantly taunting. Sorry for the rant. My guess is tomorrow Boston will get to about 50 in Boston. Higher in the burbs. Crashing temps Thursday, and a see-saw battle sets up for the final two weeks of the month. I thought snow chances had dwindled. I am once again wrong. I think we will break the all-time snow record.

    1. I was in Copley Square not too long ago. I was gorgeous. Not cold in the slightest.
      That Logan sea Breeze was not there, at least not at 1:30PM. 😀

      In fact by the time I walked back to my car, I was so hot, I had to put
      the AC on in the car. No kidding. Dead serious.

      2. C’mon you know that was a typo. IT was gorgeous outside.
        Beautiful. A 10 of a day out there!!

  53. What a treat this day is! My son just dug the BBQ grill out from a snow bank. Tonight will be the first time that we have used the grille since Christmas day, when it hit 61 degrees here in Lunenburg.

    Last night, a huge chink of ice and snow slid off our neighbor’s roof and crushed the porch roof below. Luckily, no one was hurt. Remember to keep one eye looking upward on these warm days.

  54. Snowcover is down 3 inches since yesterday and 6 inches in the last 2 days. About 20 inches left in this part of Woburn.

    1. I took a close look at my snow piles this morning. (Note: I SAID SNOW PILES
      for you jokesters out there!)
      The previous 10 foot pile is down to 6 1/2 feet.
      The previous 12 foot pile is donw to 8 feet.

      So it is melting/compacting/settling/sublimating and otherwise
      disappearing.

      BUT, there is a CRAPLOAD of SNOW left!

  55. We have an average of 23 inches of snow and are also losing about 3 inches/day. I see more of the reindeer’s antlers but not his head yet.

      1. I just downloaded a time stamp app for my phone and hope I can remember to take pics every day. The poor thing is probably mangled under the snow. His antlers are looking pretty sad.

  56. You can see the ocean’s influence today on the air. Much cooler temps in much of RI with a SE breeze and of course Boston sitting at 39.

      1. Some. But all in all a beautifull winter day on tap tomorrow. Most sun early afternoon I believe.

  58. I’m close to South Station/Atlantic Avenue. It’s cool outside. I know it’s nicer maybe 1000 yards from here, but not at or near the coast/water.

        1. He has the temps down Vicki cause he said some May hit 60 so key word is may so he is good as gold on that part.

  61. I enjoy this blog and all the insights! Drop most models and go from day to day. We will be BBQ’ing soon enough with temps in the 80’s. So how do we get there? Well, Deep snow packs, frozen, lakes, ponds and warm temps. New England at it’s finest. Enjoy the ride and marvel all that nature has to offer!!. Sorry, just an excitement rant and can’t wait to see what’s to come.

    2. i BBQ all year snow with wind chills around 0 to 90 degree heat, nothing stops a good steak on the grill 😉

        1. I wouldn’t want the damn snow wrecking MY RIB EYE!!!

          Hope you at least have an umbrella???

      2. We do as well, Matt. I’ve said here before that Mac has had to stand on a few feet of snow and bend down to reach the grill. We have not this year but only because Mac cannot safely go out and he is the BBQ’r. I have to learn I think.

    1. I guess im not the only one 🙂 I love the snow and cold in winter and the sun and 90s in the summer (when im not working )

      1. I love it all. I’m from New England. Lived on the west coast for a few years and couldn’t wait to get back. I had a shirt that said “I’ll take New England any day” and still stand truth to that. I’ve heard gripes about the T failure, infrastructure, weather, ETC.. This is where it’s at. Call me crazy but heh!

        1. Can’t beat the 4 seasons, that’s for sure.
          Sometimes it can get a bit extreme, but most of the time
          it’s awesome around here.

          For me, my worst is SPRING. I can’t stand cold sea breezes and dark/damp/dank/drizzly/rainy days!

          1. I here yah but it’s all part of the anticipation of great weather. I try to think that when you get that top 10 day that all the crap days to get there is all worth it. I mean a top 10 day in New England is like a top 100 day across the nation. Disclosure: Not in politics, just my 2 cents!

  63. In an effort to change the subject about how women are in both summer and winter, I noticed Channel 7 has a web poll on their about breaking the snowfall record. Looks like they listened to you Vicki.

    3. They did listen to Vicki.

      And you’re right, Sue. I started the `women in winter and summer’ talk. I should have added some balance to the discussion: Some grumpy men like myself are cold in winter and hot-and-bothered in summer.

  65. Just a general comment and I wont bring it up again …….

    As a father of 2 daughters and as an educator, I find the comments about women and how they look on TV or in the summer, winter or by the pool or whatever, quite inappropriate.

    It is offensive because it completely misses the reasons for their accomplishments and its just not necessary.

    So, I know no one is meaning anything bad by those type of comments, but I know I would appreciate if they stopped. Many thanks !!

    3. Hope I didn’t offend and apologize if i did. New to the group and certainly don’t want to upset folks.

  66. IS this for REAL??????

    Lou Merloni retweeted
    Ian Rapoport ‏@Rap_Sheeet 22m22 minutes ago
    BREAKING: @Patriots and CB Darrelle Revis are closing in on a 4y/61M deal

  67. If they sign Revis, they NEED to sign browner too. I really think it was the combo of them that made the difference not just Revis. Yes, revis takes away the best receiver, but if we have joe shmo on the other side, it wont matter. It’s no coincidence the pats started playing better once Browner came back from suspension for week 6 against Cincy.

  69. re: Revis. We almost lost the super bowl this year WITH Revis the same way we lost it in ’07 and ’11 without him. Not saying he didnt make a difference throughout the season, but Seattle’s offense still drove it down the Pats defense throat in that final drive and it took a combination of a boneheaded play call and huge play by an undrafted nobody to win it for us. One can also argue, Browner made that play happen by his physical presence to clear the receiver out. In my mind, Revis isnt as effective in the big picture without Browner.

    1. I can’t disagree. There is something to be said for that.
      Keep your fingers crossed that the Pat’s get it done, else they make the play offs
      next year, but you can kiss a Super Bowl Appearance GOOD_BYE!

  70. Great job Vicki! I took the channel 7 Web Poll. Care to guess HOW I voted.
    😆 😆

    Here are results to date:

    Web Poll

    Do you want Boston to break the record for winter snowfall?
    Thank you for participating in our poll. Here are the results so far:

    Yes 70%
    No 30%

  72. How did the posts get all screwed upeth? Did I manage that all by myself?
    Or do we have a Word Press GNOME at work here?

    1. How could anyone interpret my comment as inappropriate?
      Perhaps that’s why it’s still there?
      The others are GONE

      1. Mine is gone now as well.
        First time a post of mine has been removed?

        I’m feeling so down….

        NOT!!

        1. I had to remove any replies to one to get it to fix.

          Most of those comments were fine. 😀

  74. It’s fixed now. I had to shuffle some stuff around manually.

    Should be fine now but I am updating the blog anyway…

Comments are closed.