Monday Forecast Update

76 Comments

3:39AM

DAYS 1-5…
Low pressure tracks eastward, passing north of southern New England through Tuesday. Its accompanying warm front and cold front will bring varying amounts cloudiness and a shower and thunderstorm threat at times, especially Tuesday. High pressure brings fair weather Wednesday before the next frontal system brings a chance of a few showers and storms again Thursday. High pressure returns Friday with fair and warm weather.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior occurring late in the day. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW late.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of passing showers and thunderstorms. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms early through mid morning west to east and another chance of a few showers and possible thunderstorms late day or evening. Highs in the 70s, cooler some south-facing coastal areas. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-62. Highs 70 coastal areas to 80 interior.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 58-65. Highs 70-75 South Coast ranging up to 80-85 interior.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)…
A shower or thunderstorm possible about every other day with disturbances moving through an active jet stream. Temperatures near to above normal, again frequently cooler in coastal areas by day. Rainfall near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)…
General pattern will feature a high pressure ridge in the east central US being held at bay somewhat from moving into the Northeast due to a somewhat persistent upper level low pressure area in eastern Canada. This will keep New England near a boundary and result in a few shower and thunderstorm chances and air mass changes during this period. Despite this rainfall will likely be near to below normal for the region as a whole with only isolated locations possibly seeing heavier amounts. Slight chance that the eastern Canadian low lifts out enough to allow a shot of hotter air into New England around June 21-22.

76 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

    1. So far I think ok, but there may be a cluster of showers exiting around that time if they survive an eastward journey overnight. Very hard to time the spikes of energy.

      1. Cool thanks. My youngest has missed every field trip every year due to something so she is amped about tomorrow but now the rain threat ha.

  6. Thank you TK. Still loving the new format. great job.

    Se far it’s pretty nice out there. Loads of blue sky here at the office and temperatues
    are climbing.

    because of programming, we were forced to watch channel 7 last night.
    Who is this Bree person? She is a terrible forecaster/presenter. Awful!
    Every word she said, I had to tell my wife, NOPE, she’s wrong! She doesn’t know what she is talking about. BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Bri Eggers came here from out west somewhere back in the winter…and I certainly agree with you OS. I would add Pamela Gardner to that list as well.

  9. Ready the celebration ……

    June 8th ….. Logan is but 1F away from hitting 70F for the first time this month.

    Meanwhile, Barrow AK hit a record high of 53F yesterday. Warm where its not supposed to be and ……….. not warm where it should be.

  10. SPC still has us in marginal risk zone for tomorrow. Will see if this changes when this is updated around 1:30 this afternoon
    …NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST STATES…
    UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ONGOING EARLY DAY
    PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD
    FRONT…BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
    FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DIURNALLY INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE
    ADVANCING FRONT /AND NEAR AND SOUTH OF A RELATED WEAK FRONTAL WAVE/
    TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY INCLUDE A CORRIDOR FROM
    CT/MA INTO SOUTHERN NH/ADJACENT MAINE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…A
    STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORM
    MODES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

  11. Thankfully today the best CAPE and Lift for thunderstorm development will be west of SNE.
    For tomorrow
    6z GFS CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    By comparison 6z NAM
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  12. I been taking a watching approach for thunderstorm development for tomorrow. There are no indications at the present moment where I am concerned for a severe weather outbreak.

  14. 12Z NAM NOT impressive for later today NOR is it impressive for ANYTIME
    tomorrow, Tuesday. However, it spits out some impressive CAPE for Thursday.

  15. And on cue comes the mid level instability burst. Always earlier than forecast by the models. Right on time. 🙂

    Very light shower here in Reading MA.

  16. Old Salty I am glad for two things one its the NAM and we know this not the most reliable model and two plenty of time for this to change. It goes BONKERS with EHI values for Thursday across SNE. You got 3’s over a good part of SNE and a pocket of 4’s west of Boston and the Worcester area.
    It does generate some CAPE tomorrow for interior SNE.

      1. SREF significant tornado ingredients for Thursday:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f081.gif

        helicity chart

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f081.gif

        At the moment, any torndao threat appears to be very minimal.
        We shall continue to watch.

        Here is the 12Z GFS convection meteogram. It indicates no threat until Friday. Go figure

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gfs&run=12&var=conv&lang=en&map=us

  17. Rain shower near South Station. Not a monsoon, needless to say. Probably about .001qpf or thereabouts.

    As Tom mentioned it’s been quite warm in Northern Alaska. The locals from Barrow are probably in tee-shirts and shorts (provided they own such gear). But, our Inuit friends in Kimmirut remain mired in relatively cold temperatures (mostly 30s) with a fair amount of snow lingering across the bay, and a frozen waterway that usually has melted by June:

    http://kimmirutweather.com/

    1. Joshua, although we have all had it with the past winter, I still like the link you posted. Very nice picture. Thanks.

    2. I agree with rainshine. Funny how, of all the seasons, I sigh the loudest when I see pictures of winter. Perhaps associated with my memories of family and skiing and winter weekends

  19. Tornado Watch posted for far western Massachusetts, Connecticut, and points west till 8 pm.

      1. Also worth noting that the SPC has assigned a MODERATE
        risk of tornadoes within this watch area.

  22. There was talking from the NWS out of Albany and Upton, NY of the possiblity of a brief tornado in the technical discussion this morning

  23. Hazardous weather outlook issued a few hours ago from NWS out of Taunton talking about the possiblity of thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy rain, gusty to perhaps damaging winds and small hail mainly along and north and west of I-95.

    1. Interesting. It’s possible, but we shall see. It will all depend whether or
      not we get sufficient day time heating.

  25. From Taunton NWS re: Friday

    THEN A ROBUST LOW PRES CENTER MAY FORM TO THE
    W…PASSING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SRNNEW ENGLAND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS N. THIS FEATURE ISQUITE DYNAMIC…WITH GOOD F-GEN/40+ KT LLJ/AND A VERY DESTABILIZED WARM SECTOR. PWATS ALSO ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 2.0 INCHES /2 STD DEVIATIONS/. THIS IS ALL INTERESTING GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO. FOR NOW IT BARES WATCHING AS THIS COULD PROVE TO A VERY WET/SEVERE PATTERN DEPENDING ON EXACT LOW PRES FORMATION/TRACK.

  26. I am hoping that doesn’t pan out! I have my brothers bachelor party this weekend and will be down the Cape with plans to play golf Friday and Saturday.

  27. Couple days to watch for thunderstorms this week tomorrow and Thursday.
    I am thinking moslty non severe storms tomorrow maybe one or two go severe and this will be over the interior.

  28. Both the 12z runs of the American models more bullish for thunderstorms for Thursday than tomorrow although the is enough CAPE for thunderstorm development on both the models for tomorrow.
    The EHI values for Thursday 1 -2 range for a good part of SNE on the GFS where the NAM was showing a good part of SNE with EHI values of the 3’s and even a pocket of 4’s west of Boston and in The Worcester area.

    1. We were at Dana Milford all day and it was very windy there but I thought even more so as we got closer to home late pm. Could be because it actually did pick up later in day.

  31. According to the 18Z NAM, whatever happens tomorrow will go POOF
    as it approaches the coast. Most action well inland.

    18Z NAM still quite robust for Thursday. Cape in excess of 2,000 joules.

    We shall see.

    1. JJ, be on the look out tomorrow, “just in case”. Wonder what the SPC
      will issue for tomorrow??

      1. Latest from SPC re: Tomorrow

        …NORTHEAST…
        IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
        SHIFT OFF THE MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE
        DAY…RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
        SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH INSOLATION BENEATH
        RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. COUPLED WITH LINGERING
        MODESTLY STRONG 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW… THE
        ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF
        PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

  35. Per Taunton NWS, 2012 also had a June that took until June 8th to get its first 70F day that month. Only 1997 took longer, waiting until June 9th to get above 70F.

    Summer of 2012 saw 12 days of 90F or higher temps, twice hitting 97F.

    Summer of 1997 saw 18 days of 90F or higher.

    Of course, this doesnt necessarily tell us what to expect for this summer ……….

        1. I’m not sure what I’m predicting, because I certainly did not see the warm May turning into the cool first week of June.

          1. Well we all know what I base my guesses on …. Son and grandson both born on 13th of the month :).

  36. I still think it’s going to be a hot summer . Power went out this morning and late afternoon both times for 30 minutes. Very windy here in pembroke .

  38. Productive showers/storms out in western New England / eastern NY State that did not appear to go severe ……

    .54 so far in Albany, NY

    In only 1 hr, .19 in Pittsfield, MA

  40. Let’s get those productive showers here. But as we kept saying in winter once the pattern is locked it’s hard to break it. It will take something out of the ordinary to change the pattern now as well.

  41. Not impressed with any severe parameters here in eastern areas tomorrow. Cloud cover will help keep things at bay.

  43. 6z NAM for today
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  45. 6 Z nam is useless imo for coastal areas. Too much cloud cover here near the coast and a more stable environment. Would love some downpours though.

Comments are closed.