Monday Forecast Update

245 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5…
Old cold frontal boundary sits in the area and slowly dissipates through Tuesday as high pressure builds aloft and slowly increases the heat while the humidity hangs on. The HHH is finally here for midweek but without the storm threat Wednesday before it returns later Thursday with the arrival of a weak cold front. This front will drop the humidity and take the edge off the heat by the end of the week.
TODAY: Variably cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-86. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Muggy. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Scattered afternoon showers/t-storms. Humid. Highs 80-88. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sunshine. Humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 88-95.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Chance of late day and nighttime t-storms. Humid. Lows 68-75. Highs 90-97.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)…
Very warm to hot weekend, dry August 1, humid August 2 with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Warm and humid August 3-5 with a risk of showers/thunderstorms daily.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)…
Ridges of high pressure in the central US and off the East Coast with a very weak trough between. This pattern is typically warm and humid here with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

245 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks TK. Leaving for Vermont this morning, looks like a very warm but dry week! If it means anything (I sure hope not!), on a morning very similar to this last year, July 28, we left for this same trip. That was the day of the Revere tornado.

    Definitely an active night/morning though, and looks pretty busy here the next couple days.

  3. Thank you TK

    OS I thought the storm would be worse for you although on phone couldn’t see where it ended up in boston. Even when it was over the Neetons, the Thunder was loud here and lightening was vivid and frequent.

    1. I don’t think we got much more than a quick shot of heavy rain. Unless, of course I slept through it all 🙂 Sorry to hear you lost your power!

    2. Several flashes of lightning with accompanying thunder and some down pours
      and that was that. Didn’t last long at all.

      Sounded a bit like there was some hail, but I was so asleep and when I closed
      the windows it looked like rain with no hail, so I don’t know for sure.

      1. It must have lost some of its strength. As I explained, once we lost power I couldn’t get access to the radar. Ours was definitely hail but a very brief blast. No idea why we lost power as everything (including precip) was well over when it went out.

        1. Who is your supplier? Ours is Ever Source. The names
          have changed so many time, but our is the Old Boston Edison. The Company by any name SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They do NOT maintain the
          lines, therefore, they deal with them when they blow!!!
          THEY SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK!!!!
          They will NOT NOT NOT dip into profits to provide decent service to their customers, let alone keep the grid well maintained. THey do NOT NOT NOT know what maintenance is. Capitalism at its
          WORST WORST WORST!!!!!!!

          Perhaps you have the same problem with your provide. Perhaps you have the same STINKEN provider!!!!

          BTW, Verizon and Comcast are exactly the SAME!!!!
          Driven by profits at the EXPENSE of their customers!!
          I can’t STAND IT!!!!

          What happened to the good old says when companies
          actually cared about their customers?????

          1. Pembroke has comcast and they have us by the throat . They are horrid . I’ve had phone and cable issues for over a year now and each guy that comes in tells us something different. My only other option is to put a dish on my castle which I do not want to do . Heading home for wake than back tonight and it’s still cloudy and cool here at the beach. My son is off on a four hr fishing trip.

            1. Agree totally on COMCAST. They
              don’t have you by the throat, they have you by the BALLS!!!

              Sorry bout wake.

              Not that Verizon is much better, but do you have FIOS in your area? You could always try them instead of Satellite.

              1. Looking into fios. Yeh it’s my good buddies mom so I need to go . I’ll let you know how the catch went . About 25 of them went out of Newburyport 8-12 trip. The last two yrs not so good. If they have keepers it will be cooked tonight.

            2. Do not get dish…my opinion only. When we switched from Comcast because of serious and regular problems, Verizon did not have cable TV in this area. So we had to get Dish. It was a nightmare. Verizon is moderately better than Comcast (for this area). We have had some really great servicemen and they have given me their cell (work) numbers and also shown me how to do some simple fixes to the box.

            4. I’ve had Comcast for over 12 years and while there have been a few issues here and there for the most part I’ve been quite pleased with their performance (YMMV). Before that when I lived in Winthrop we had Verizon (phone and DSL) and they were horrid.

          2. We have eversource and daughter said she and husband used the app to report the outage. SERIOUSLY – MY KID REPORTED AN OUTAGE. I have threatened to take the app off of their phones. However, they kept up to the minute reports on when the power would be restored and they were early.

            As far as maintaining lines, it is more than that OS. There is a very designed test/maintenance schedule. Husband’s company manufactures the test sets for 99% of the country’s utilities in this country and now a huge percentage abroad. They are spreading out the testing cycles for the reasons you have named….well reason. Profit and all of it goes to the top. Welcome to our new America.

            As far as driven by profits ….all of our big business fits that category.

            1. Not all, but certainly most.

              I’m disgusted by the corporate greed
              in this country. Sad, very very sad.

              They way it’s going, every city and town in this country will become Pottersville (Reference to It’s a Wonderful Life)

              1. I will refrain from sharing my view but, OS, you are so very right. As always, no surprise we agree 🙂

  4. Re-Post from earlier this morning….

    Old Salty says:
    July 27, 2015 at 6:32 AM
    Had to close windows around 1:15 AM as it was pouring with, of all things, thunder
    and lightning!! Can’t get one during the day, so we get one overnight. Amazing.
    Nothing even remotely severe, but a T-storm none-the-less. So what is in store
    for today?
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    July 27, 2015 at 6:42 AM
    NWS expected scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity today.

    FWIW, the latest HRRR does NOT show much activity around today at all.
    Some convection around or about 21Z. We shall see. This model has SUCKED
    lately.
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    July 27, 2015 at 6:55 AM
    So far, SPC has us in General thunderstorm risk for today and Marginal risk
    for severe tomorrow. We shall see if that changes.

  5. From NWS this morning re: Thunderstorms for today

    TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
    TO BUILD SLOWLY N WITH TIME…REACHING INTO MASS PIKE CORRIDOR BY
    MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS PROBABLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS OPPOSED TO W NEW ENGLAND.

  6. 6Z NAM shows pretty robust CAPE across the area this afternoon.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

    Let’s see if it is realized. As TK says the “P” in CAPE is for “Potential”. Doesn’t mean
    it happens.

    Although that being said, radar seems to be getting active at this early hour.
    Makes one believe there will be much action today. We shall see. 😀

  7. As Old Salty indicated SPC has us in marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow. Will see what happens when this gets updated around 1:30pm
    …NEW ENGLAND…
    ONE OR MORE LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
    ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
    NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
    BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE…WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
    EXPECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS AT
    LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY TUESDAY
    AFTERNOON…STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
    SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING MULTICELLS AND
    POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS…WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE.

  8. 6z NAM for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  9. 6z GFS far less instability than 6z NAM
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  10. I am in Fall River for an ATM install. Hope we don’t get struck by lightning since it is an outsood machine and the thunder is rumbling.

    1. That also might be reflecting a pretty strong sea breeze and marine
      influence killing the Cape? NO East wind at Boston just yet.

      On the other hand, the latest HRRR indicates a crap load of convection this
      Afternoon all over, including Boston.

      So once again, conflicting information.

      Just watch the radar. That will ultimately tell the true story. 😀

  14. .88 of an inch of rain in the last hour in Newport, RI ……

    I’d say its a quick run btwn mansions today down there ……

  17. Observations of the sky while I slowly empty out the back of the truck and the camper …

    There’s a deck of high and mid level cloudiness across a good part of the sky.

    Looking north, I’m guessing northern Mass is getting some decent sunshine. Of course, on the southernmost horizon, are the darkest clouds, probably seeing the south coast showers/storms.

    While the wind is S an SW, its coming from where its in the rain cooled mid and upper 60s, so the surface isnt moderating appreciably.

    Putting all that together, I wonder if afternoon showers / storms, if they pop, may fire in northern Mass, assuming there is instability there.

    Of course, last night showed showers/storms arent always dependent on the heat of the sun, so maybe they do develop Boston and just south, but, I think I’d be surprised if that happens.

  18. 12z NAM aggressive in the 15 z to 21z time frame tomorrow.
    Here is the CAPE LIFT EHI at 18z when the instability reaches its peak in SNE
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=033&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. I guess the “thunderstorm drought” may be coming to an end.

      I think it looks like a better upcoming pattern for them to occur.

      Shots of heat or heat just south of New England, with the upper low over Hudson Bay sending cold fronts/disturbances towards New England every few days.

  21. Tom welcome back. I was thinking about how difficult it is to return from vacation but you return to my idea of a perfect place to live so it may be a win win ????

    That said, I hope you had a very special time!

    1. Thanks Vicki.

      Always good to get home, maybe more so this time. I loved the area and the day trips we did, but the camping due to the wilderness and the isolation seemed more difficult over a ten day period. I am enjoying the electricity today. 🙂

      I am very lucky though, my wife plans excellent vacations.

      Are you and Mac headed this way soon, as I recall ?

      1. We are. The girls each have a Humarock house rented. We will stay at a hotel for a couple of nights since it is too hard to commit not knowing how mac will feel. We are looking for a two family house in that area too 🙂

  22. HHH pattern now in place through September? I guess it had to happen sooner or later…UGH!!! 🙁

      1. Sun angle is the key, 85 in sept is nothing like 85 in July 🙂
        We start Fall Aeration overseedings in 3 in a half weeks. At that time sun angle will be the same as late April. 🙂

            1. My favorite time of year is from about August 15th or so until Halloween. The reason why is because temps are comfortable most of the time. And the sun is beating me down. Plus the brief 4 weeks of foliage is just a bonus. How about yours jj?

              1. My favorite season is winter close behind is fall then spring and summer.
                I like the weather from mid September to end of October as we get some nice cool
                crisp days to enjoy along with a great display of fall colors. I don’t like November other
                than Thanksgiving since the leaves are off the trees and it tends to be a cloudy month. When I am done raking and bagging
                the leaves I am ready for snow. By April 1st I am ready for Spring.

            2. I like nov and dec for holidays, January is ok for some snow and colder weather. (I hate below 25 degrees). Feb I hate the most.

            3. The older we get, the more we hate winter. At one time I loved snow and winter. But I don’t have time for that. It’s just an inconvenience now. To be honest, in just a couple years, we may be lucky enough to move to South Carolina from the end of Dec till the beginning of March. So then we will like the weather every month of the year. 🙂

                1. Charlie my mom is saying the same thing. The winters never bothered here
                  before now they are. She said the same the thing the older you get the winters
                  are tougher to take and you can’t stand the cold and snow. This decade other than
                  11-12 winter these winters have had their fill of cold and snow.
                  Her and my step father were home last winter and didn’t go away. The past few
                  years they went to the Villages in Florida and there looking to go back for
                  February this winter.

              2. Except for a few of us here.
                I still love Winter as much as I did as a Kid. I know at least one other
                older person here who feels the same way. 😀

  24. Tom, the cloud deck you mentioned has it’s Northern edge just about over Boston.
    As a result it is mostly clear/thin overcast overhead and pretty much clear to the North, however, Sun is shining through the higher overcast to the South.

  26. Now there is considerable low cumulus. Not towering. Not growth. Just plain ole
    cumulus.

    1. Pretty good lightning with those storms out there.
      also NWS has issued a flash flood warning for Berkshire counties.

      http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2015/07/weather-alert-flash-flood-warning-for-franklin-county-ma-and-others.html

      A severe warned storm:

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=aly&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=aly&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning

  28. Boston wind from 210 at 15 knots gusting to 19 Knots.
    Pretty safe to say NO SEA BREEZE today.

  29. I am not in the office this PM so will be fairly active depending on what’s shaking. 😀

    1. Didn’t catch that. They are unreal.

      helicity, ehi and voticity Generation Potential are all low.
      Anything is possible, but why put that in there as it is so unlikely????

      I don’t get it.

      They have tornado on the brain down there!

  31. SPC maintains marginal risk for tomorrow.
    NEW ENGLAND…

    THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
    UNSTABLE DURING PEAK HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
    EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WILL INTENSIFY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
    WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
    RATHER WEAK…BUT STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB
    WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
    CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
    RATHER POOR…AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS EXPECTED. BUT FAST STORM
    MOTION AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
    GUSTY…LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

  33. Regarding Winters.

    I thoroughly enjoyed this past Winter. LOVED IT!
    The more snow the better!!

    It was fantastic! Bring it on again!!!

  34. I am with you Old Salty. I am hoping were not heading for a dud of a winter but my gut tells me we are.
    I am thinking 20-25 inches for Boston next winter early stage. We have had some good winters this decade.

  35. Just put the trash out. OMG is it brutal out there.
    Tons of sunshine now. Up to 84.4 here. YUCK YUCK and TRIPLE YUCK!!!!

    Logan dewpoint 67 Blue hills 68 Norwood 69 Beverly 69

    1. We just came back from trying a new restaurant (not recommending it) for lunch. We sat outside and there was a nice breeze so even if the food was mediocre, the atmosphere was wonderful. We were the only ones outside, however!

  36. Huh What? from NWS

    TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-95 A FEW
    SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
    THROUGH EARLY EVENING…BUT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

    What is that HUGE Cape being modeled then? BUT radar kind of confirms what
    they are saying.

    So once again Boston and surrounding area is in the NO STORM ZONE!!

    1. SE of I95, does that mean the main I95 corridor from Providence to Boston
      or the old rt. 128 needham, weston, waltham, Lexington????

      They are never clear

  37. Although I love all of the weather, if I had to rank seasons, I’d say my favorite season is October 1 to September 30. In that order.

  38. Looks as if Boston’s bid for the Olympics will be pulled since the Mayor will not sign a guarantee that the taxpayers will pay overrun.

    1. He can’t sign it because he can’t pork the City if money is needed.

      It was a LOUSY idea in the first place. I am Happy.

      Good riddance to it!

      1. I think it could have been very exciting to have the Olympics here. Not on our tax dollars. My sister in law was telling me a bit about how Atlanta did it and it sure seems to have worked. I have to look into it more.

        1. Perhaps, but you know what it can be like when you
          come into Dana Farber. Multiply that by at least 2, if not more, and that’s what you would have. Not only during the Olympics but for years during construction.

          I can’t drive to work without blowing a head gasket because of some stupid construction site as it is.
          I could only imagine.

          We live here. Trust me it would have been a boondoggle.

  39. The chances of a storm making it inside rt 128 is slim and none and even the chances
    of inside 495 is low. NO STORM ZONES today, tomorrow and we shall see about
    Thursday. I am NOT feeling it for Thursday. We shall see.

  42. I see that the convection that was a long our South Coast moved up into the Boston area.
    The NWS can’t forecast 6 hours in advance.

    1. US National Weather Service Boston MA
      1 min ·
      Storms have been slow moving and even back-building in some instances. Main issue is continued heavy rain and lightning:

      No Bleep Dick Tracy!

  43. The storms thus far are firing where one would expect – where the best CAPE is.

    The best instability is from just northwest of Boston through 95/495 northwest of the city up to about Nashua NH.

    2. But there is more to it than that. There is ample Cape here.
      We are not getting the forcing/lift etc to fire the storms so we are
      left with Unrealized “potential” as per usual.

  45. One thing on the Olympics: It’s a great example of the negativity and the “we can’t do it” attitude that prevails. Having the games here would have been tough, and would have interrupted things, but in the long run it would have been an amazing event and would have done long term good. But, too many people just can’t look at it that way.

    BOO TO BOSTON on that one!! I’m disappointed!

    1. I am not. No way would I have wanted to deal with all of that crap.
      How often do you visit the City? I am here every freakin day.

      1. Quite regularly. 🙂 And my wife visits it 5 days a week, right in the middle. She would have loved to see the games come here too. I get why many did not, but I still think overall it’s disappointing.

        Boston had a chance to show the world what they could do and they blew it. Oh well.

          1. Though I don’t think the city itself or its people are a joke…I just think this all could have been approached differently….but it never had a chance.

        2. Tk It’s not only that tk, the people are a breed of “does this inconvenience me” and even if it’s good for the state city or town your in, they vote it down. Now we have to listen to national news on how unamerican this city is. Every aspect of our infrastructure is 40 friggen years behind the rest of America. America has lost the bid to Canada. Lol they will never get there heads outa there kiestas 🙂

        3. I am disappointed that there was never any real effort put toward finding a solution. I do not like the USOC’s history of increased demands on the host city. The fact that our Mayor had to either sign a document guaranteeing that we pay for overruns (which are very real) or lose the bid is very sad. I do not blame Boston or Massachusetts but the poor history the USOC has due to mismanagement and politics. As far as this state, Walsh tried to get on board. Baker never did. There was never a real plan. If we could not get a consensus from our politicians or an actual plan together, it was sadly destined to be a disaster. Just my opinion but part of my is quite sad. I’m hoping that another U.S. city will be considered. It’s been a long time since Atlanta.

  46. CPC at it again. Every forecast different than the one before it.

    This week was originally forecast to have below normal temperatures. Oops.

  47. Re : the Olympic bid …..

    Communication previously must have been extremely poor. It seems to me the bid should never have been submitted given the public’s majority opinion against and how the Mayor and many other politicians seem to feel about it.

    The discussion needed to take place BEFORE the bid was submitted. If there was one, then all those who did a lot of work putting forth a proposal that was accepted by the USOC evidently put in a lot of wasted time and effort.

    1. I absolutely, totally, completely agree and have wondered how it got that far to begin with. We were typing at the same time. How did we get to here without an actual plan or actual definitives from the USOC? I do not think it was the mayor, however. I heard the major speak positively about the Olympics several times. He felt that it would force us to do things we have spent far too many years complaining about and not doing (e.g., update transit). The governor never got on board. As far as the proposal, did we really ever see one? It was going to be a “walking Olympics” and then spread throughout the state.

      I do not understand why this was not already figured out before the bid.

  48. I pretty much enjoyed this past winter as well except walking around was much more difficult than previous snowy winters. Many sidewalks in the city were either not shoveled or if a path was shoveled it was so narrow it was like walking a tightrope. Getting around in 1978 was a breeze compared to 2015. We deserve a break this upcoming winter 2015-16 and based on TK’s early thoughts we shall have one thanks to El Nino. My early call is that Logan will total snowfall in the double digits but no higher than the average of 43.8″.

  49. Managed to survive the ATM install and am back in Plymouth now. It was actually a bit chilly in Fall River this morning.

  50. re: Olympics

    I have leaned on the side of against the Olympics in Boston from the beginning but that doesn’t mean I didn’t think it would be a great event and really “cool” and “neat” to have it in Boston. It would have put us on the map for the world to see. The thing that bothers me is that seeing all angles and seriously considering the logistics and realities of the games here is being viewed as negative. There’s a big difference between it being “nice to have the games here” to “can the city really handle it logistically and financially.” I put the blame on those before us who strapped the city with projects like the Big Dig that were corrupt from the beginning. It is those events and those people who have put the great city of Boston into the financial state it’s in today and to not be able to handle the financial burden of an Olympic games. I applaud our city and state officials for shutting this thing down. Let’s not forget, it must not have been easy for Walsh and Baker to oppose this as I’m sure they would have loved to have the games here. For once, those in power currently have learned from past mistakes of those in power before them.

    2. We live in a politically corrupted state, and if anyone doesn’t know or think that, then I freaking Santa Claus!!!! A sad sad sad day for Boston, o well, it’s the people that bitched and cried and whined because “there life’s were going to be inconvenience”. I’m done commenting on this topic. It was political. The Olympics will be better off anyway. 🙂

      1. Charlie, It is far larger than just this state. Remember, the USOCs bungling is what has also ruined the chances of other states. The political problems reside with it. But then we all know how much you love Massachusetts 🙂

  52. TK – Would you have thought differently if Boston was chosen as a site for the 2024 Winter Olympics given what happened (MBTA shutdowns, etc.) this past winter? I shudder to think what would have happened had Boston hosted a major event during the late Januray into February timeframe with thousands of visitors from all over.

    NOTE: The way the olympics are held nowadays, I don’t know for sure if there even is a winter 2024 olympics, just giving an example.

  53. As for the convective activity… The best instability/CAPE combo is from Boston northwest for a while. This weakens later. However, with the activity that was and still is out there, some outflow boundaries are around, and just enough lift may be generated for a few nocturnal cells. I think the axis of activity will settle south and east with time tonight.

    Tomorrow, eastern and southeastern MA are more likely to pop activity.

    1. Picture ski jumping at blur hill.
      Downhill at mt. Wachusetts.
      Hockey at td bank garden
      Figure skating at harvard etc.
      Actually all skiiing would bin nh or
      Vt. Logistical nightmare.

          1. OS it is my understanding that Atlanta did not pass the costs on to residents and it is using every venue it created. That is not to say it did not receive heavy criticism from its residents AND huge pushback from USOC.

      1. We’ll know soon. I’m not so sure they make it. But can’t discount it with a very nice instability axis nearby.

      2. Had a really decent thunderstorm here in Chelmsford for the last 45 minutes or so – vivid, cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds. One of these days, I’ll get a rain gauge 🙂 At least I don’t have to water my tomatoes tonight!

        1. I can hear it from here, flowergirl. We were out back watering (I was watching and daughter was watering) and came in. Huge clouds up your way. Maybe Rainshine had some too?

          Rainshine, if you are reading, did you get results today?

  56. TK – Please explain why you would have no problem with a Winter Olympics. Have you forgotten that the T Commuter Rail was shut down for nearly a whole month, and even the regular T subway system had limited service for several days at a time??

    I really believe that if you lived in Boston instead of Woburn you would think much differently. 😉

    1. I have not forgotten that. And I also realize that the scope of what took place weatherwise was not something we see very often and exposed limitations in the system, which would be addressed long before any Winter Olympics took place here.

      If I lived in Boston I’d think the same, for Winter or Summer games. I don’t have a problem adjusting things. And I realize I’m in the vast minority with that thought process. I just have a different outlook on life than most people do.

    2. So sad, and the friggen people just sit around and “ignore it” waiting for government to fix it. O boy!! I can’t stand it. Look at the highways!!! Widen them!! I love it here because I was brought up here, but the older I get, I can’t take the a%# backwards thinking. We say we can’t handle stuff like this? WELL THEN LETS CHANGE THAT, the thinking of how will this inconvenience me even though it’s good for the majority has to go, we are smart enough to do that. Look at the casino, voted twice in, now wynns going to sue Boston because of what there doing to him. Sad sad sad, Sorry for the rant. Ugh 🙂

  57. I been busy as of late. I am really sick to my stomach about what walsh did, shame on him. People are to short sited. They look only to the negatives and possible negatives.
    1. Olympics only 3 weeks (most people week one and two)
    2. If we were to hold the olympics there would be a deadline ( shit would actually get done)
    — Mass gov has been talking about change and everything to the transportation systems. have no happened and not even talking about it. Olympics would have forced him to do something about it
    —— increased jobs (yes temp jobs but if you get your foot in the door they know how you work and operate.
    —–some parts of boston that are disgusting would be totally redone
    —–how much taxes would have actually of been increased? Most usa olympics have been positive for them. Not negative. They were using the basic ideas of how other usa olympics have done. Plus we had most of the venues all ready set.
    —- rule is that 52 percent of all the events have to be with a 40 mile radias of boston that is out to 128.
    People need to read it and understand what they were asking for before jumping to that its a negative. Short minded … Honestly it would have been one of the best things for boston for several reason.. Also Just imagine what the opening and closing ceremonies could be like

    end of my rant, is been a nice summer, been busy with work, figuring out stuff with school. Orientation this thursday 😀
    Finally the true summer heat

    1. with the comment of the winter olympics, i would think it would be easier to hold the winter olympics here . We have almost every thing all ready in place. We have the TD Garden and several other college and other city ice rinks for ice sports… we have cross country skiing areas (minuteman bike way is used as a trail in the winter)
      wachussett could be used if need be for certain x game sports.
      the rest of the skiing and snowboarding would be up in new hampshire and possibly even vermont. ( honestly not that large of a commute especially compared to russia. Winter would have been more realistic.

      1. but those are not the American olympics 😉 all the american olympics were dept free 😉

        1. Matt, check out Utahs gas tax. It was raised to fund the cost of the Olympics. That is just one small after effect. And it is Montreal that is still paying for the Olympics. Decades later.

          We just didn’t have a plan and the demands from the USOC were already bad and it’s history is to make far more demands.

          I would have loved them here if it happened. But the lack of planning and the demands of USOC and its history of bungling just didn’t make it look good. And it is sad as it would have been remarkable.

    3. I agree with you. It would not have been without issues, but the end result would have been spectacular. Well, we’ll never know, because the committee is probably just about done with ever considering Boston again. 😉

        1. Charlie did you notice everyone is having a respectful discussion. There are always two sides to an issue.

      1. Walsh supported the Olympics. He stated many of the things Matt pointed out several times. Baker never got on board.

  58. Small pulse cells are right inside 128 now. One heading for the north side of Boston.

  62. Despite the unstable nature of the atmosphere and the CAPE, these cells are basically one and done. No updraft can sustain itself for long.

  63. And on to weather. That cell has been dancing over the northhampton area for quite a while. Wonder what they are getting for rain totals and looks to be good reason for a flood watch

  64. I think everything is about to basically go POOF. Looks like we’ve maxed out for now. Very weak flow in the area, NOT helping storms survive in any way whatsoever.

    Still the shot at a brief pop up somewhere along a boundary so will watch it.

    Tomorrow’s setup is better.

    I may even need to consider adding a chance of isolated storms to Wednesday because we have the juice and a cap in place, but if something can bust that cap then watch out.

    Cold front late Thursday may spell some trouble too.

    1. Could you possible elaborate on “Watch Out” and “Spell Some Trouble”.
      From you, those are serious words?

      My guess is:

      Watch out = isolated Discrete Super Cells with Damaging winds and/or hail.

      Spell Some Trouble = More wide spread storms possibly severe.

      😀

  66. I agree having the Olympics wouldn’t have come without issues, but the end result and impact would have brought the city of Boston to the next level. It will never be considered again here. For crying out loud I can’t even get my town to come out and do a pool inspection! Get the big picture?

  67. The activity just west of me has faded to only elevated anvil precipitation and now the darker updraft bases are all to my east. The perpetuation of this convection was being done weakly along a barely recognizable outflow boundary. It’s almost over.

  68. The problem with holding major events here is that Boston just has too many public and private transportation issues even on a normal basis. All that has to happen is add anomolous wx conditions and additional visitors from all over the country/world equals disaster and embarrassment.

    Imagine fans filing out of TD Garden after a first round Olympic basketball game and at North Station being told that the last train of the night left 45 minutes ago…or a one-car crash or breakdown in a tunnel causing miles of backups on all highways out of the city.

      1. But playing the Devils advocate which I do, not because I disagree but because I like to try to see both sides, it also promises to get many of those issues under comtrol. And we are not fixing the problems on our own. How long have we been saying we need to fix the T? Shouldn’t take the Olympics but……

    2. I don’t know what most people think but I would love to have all night T service at least on a limited basis. I work evenings most times and cabs are expensive. I have never used Uber but I believe that is not cheap either.

      1. My son uses Uber frequently. He has had good luck with it
        and says it is considerably cheaper than a cab.

    3. You are making a point though philip, why don’t we fix our infrastructure? A 1 car crash, or a simple police pullover causes a 5 mile back up, at 12 o clock at night!! What r we waiting for?

  74. I find it interesting that the north shore has been the focal point for severe thunder storms the past few years…last year’s Revere tornado is a perfect example.

    There must be some meteorological reason behind it. I can’t imagine that Mother Nature simply has a specific grudge against northeastern MA.

  76. The Craven Brook significant severe parameter is 20-30,000 across Eastern
    MA tomorrow PM.

    Craven-Brooks Significant Severe

    An index of how favorable the atmosphere is to severe weather just using CAPE and Shear A majority of significant severe weather events occur when the index is over 20

    Craven SigSvr Parameter

    The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

    The index is formulated as follows:

    C = (mlCAPE J/kg) * (SHR6 m/s)

      1. So if i am understanding u correct and the maps, there is 20,000 m3/s3 meaning severe hail and winds?

          2. Just one index and IMO it doesn’t take enough into account to be of any value. It’s like trying to do a 500 piece jigsaw puzzle with only 100 of the pieces.

  78. Friday and Saturday’s Patriots Training camp are expected to break the record attendance of last years 21,500. Some analyst are saying maybe 30,000. Get there early!! We will be there 2 hours before. 🙂 Go Patriots!!

    2. My guess is the start of their games will have huge viewership also. Part of the Goodell plan.

  79. Here is a photo of scud nearby to the developing storms. This was next to the base that became the North Shore storm. It would fool some people, but trust me, there was no rotation here and this cloud was harmless. In the lower right the storm tower from the cell that crossed Boston can be seen as this is looking to the south southeast from Woburn.

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11039225_10153543476122265_5435249506694531014_n.jpg?oh=2f4a61023fc4677e106be1a6f737350b&oe=56414FA5

    1. Funny you should ask. I was about to type how I think it may play out tomorrow.

      I like NW flow for storms, high dew points, and a sea breeze boundary initially.

      Watch for a cluster of showers/storms to form somewhere in southeastern MA by early afternoon and then move south or even south southwest toward eastern RI. They may pass just south of your area but we’ll see. Later another cluster of cells should form along a boundary somewhere near or just east of the I-95 belt. Those cells will probably slide southeast with time, then activity will fade with sunset.

  82. Nice gulp of water in and around Boston a couple of hours ago. I was at Logan dropping off my son when the heavens opened. Later, while walking along the Charles I heard a maple tree burp. A happy burp.

    Regardless of one’s position on the Olympics it tells us that local democracy and grassroots campaigns have an impact. At least in America. Having lived overseas in Europe I cannot imagine a European city mayor giving up an Olympic bid because of concern about city taxpayers. First, in many countries in Europe, mayors are not elected by the people. they are appointed by central governments. Second, issues like the possibility of cost overruns as a result of something as prestigious as the Olympics would likely not be discussed in Europe at the local level at all. Sadly, in my view. They’re simply pushed through. While living in Europe I missed lively debates about a whole host of issues, especially at the local level.

      1. I also agree with him, I just think we lose a lot bc of the disorganized, discombobulated ways here. Again just my opinion. 🙂

  83. Just another Joe at it again!! PATHETIC!!!
    Sox Baseball Operations management are INEPT!!!!!!!!

    Fire em ALL!!!!

    The manager
    The general Manager and his assistants if necessary.

    Fire fire fire and start anew.

  84. Without a posting blitz (I may do that tomorrow. Depends)
    There are parameters in place for some severe weather around these parts tomorrow.
    Not just one parameter, but many. Will there be? Who knows. Sooner or later,
    we are going to have to pay. We shall see. Let’s just say monitor those radars tomorrow
    for the possibility.

      1. Am or PM blitz or am or pm Severe weather?

        Re: Severe Weather, if any
        Likely PM into early evening

        Posting Blitz

        AM IF and I say IF I see the necessary parameters. If not, just the usual. 😀

  85. Just when we thought Boston wouldn’t get into the convection action and some T-storms, it looks like we might get round 2 tomorrow, and possibly more rounds later this week.

    Excuse me for this baseball post, but my beloved Red Sox (I do love them, and have since the days of Sonny Siebert and Joe Lahoud) make me so upset. Accountability with the Red Sox is lacking. It’s tragic. It’s the exact opposite of the Patriot approach. I heard the bench coach on the radio this past weekend declare that “Ben had done a terrific job … put together a fine pitching staff.” On and on this man droned about how well-positioned the Sox were. To do what? Delusional. I nearly choked on my sandwich. While I understand that as a bench coach you can’t put down people in the organization, there is NO need to sing their praises when they’re not deserved. The GM could have easily landed Donaldson, but instead opted to break the bank for Sandoval. Could have kept Cespedes, and instead got Porcello and Ramirez. Could have kept Lackey, but preferred going the uncertain route with a has-been named Craig, and the next coming of John Wasdin in Joe Kelly.

    The `product’ out there is putrid. Plain and simple. What’s worse, there is no future with this team. Aging veterans, no pitching, and a couple of decent young players do not a baseball contender make. Yet, ownership only wants to hear how great things are, and how Ben and John can do no wrong. Joe Kelly should be released along with Napoli, Nava, Breslow, and a few others. No team will give the Sox anything for these guys except lowly prospects. Might as well simplify things and say good riddance. Same goes for Allen Craig, who’s probably the richest Triple-A player in all of professional baseball. It’s embarrassing. I apologize for my rant.

    1. Amen Joshua. “WAY BACK WASDIN”. Hilarious!!!! Nice reference. Brings
      back memories.

      I agree 100% with your statements!!! Nicely said.

  86. I shouldn’t even do this given their recent track level, but here is the Taunton NWS
    thinking regarding severe weather tomorrow:

    AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…LOW LEVEL
    WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
    NONETHELESS…STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE 0 TO 6 KM
    SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THERE IS AN INVERTED V LOOK TO
    THE SOUNDINGS. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
    TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE
    ISLAND…BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT CENTRAL MA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
    GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
    EVENING. HIGHEST RISK MIGHT BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT SETS
    UP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND AS IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
    CONVECTION. ALSO…SOMETIMES WE END UP WITH SOME TRAINING ON THESE
    BOUNDARIES AND THE RISK FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

    1. Interesting from Gray, ME NWS office

      STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
      2K…COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
      GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
      WINDS. ALSO…LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
      AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
      100-200 RANGE…SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
      WELL…WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX.

  87. Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP)

    A multiple component index that is meant to highlight the co-existence of ingredients favoring supercell thunderstorms. The SCP is formulated as follows:

    SCP = (muCAPE / 1000 J/kg) * (ESRH / 50 m2/s2) * (EBWD / 10 m/s)

    where ESRH = storm-relative helicity for the effective inflow layer using an assumed supercell motion, and the EBWD = effective bulk wind difference over the lower half of the storm depth (effective inflow base to EL height). The EBWD term is capped at a value of 1.5 (e.g., EBWD > 30 m/s is set to 30 m/s), and this same term is set to zero when EBWD 1 favor right-moving (cyclonic in northern hemisphere) supercells, while values of SCP < -1 favor left-moving (anticyclonic) supercells. The Left SCP uses an assumed left supercell motion. More information on left-moving supercell environments can be found in Bunkers (2002) and Edwards et al. (2004).

    For today at 21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    Craven SigSvr Parameter

    The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as "deep layer shear") accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

    The index is formulated as follows:

    C = (mlCAPE J/kg) * (SHR6 m/s)

    For today

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    SREF Lifted Index

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFC_LI_f018.gif

    For the SREF, this is SUPER HIGH

    SREF CAPE

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    For the SREF, this is high.

    In addition the 0-6 KM bulk shear is greater than 30 knots.

    Putting it all together, odds would favor the reasonable possibility of some severe
    storms today with possible damaging winds and large hail.

    SPC still has us in a Marginal risk for severe. I have a feeling that gets upgraded
    to slight or perhaps even enhanced at the next update, although SPC is pretty
    conservative, so who knows.

    "should" be a watch sometime today, perhaps around the Noon hour or so. We shall
    see.

    Could be an interesting day. Stay tuned and watch those radars.

    1. SREF Calibrated Probability previous 3 hours of severe thunderstorm.

      The SREF calibrated thunderstorm
      guidance as described in Bright et al . (2005)
      is computed on the 40 km AWIPS 212 grid
      (which is roughly equivalent to the probability
      of a thunderstorm within ~10 miles of a point)
      covering 3-hour time periods

      21Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f018.gif

      0Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f021.gif

      So this is in the 7-9 range, which seems low, but I have been looking at this
      with each threat and this is the Highest I have seen this year. It says probability, which I would read as 7-9 % chance. The scale only goes to 15.
      So the 7-9 then would appear rather high. Anyone have any more input on
      this? Did some more reading and this “appears” correct, but not totally sure.

  88. NWS service quite tame on today’s threat. I’m surprised. Did they peek here? 😀

    TODAY…

    *** A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE STORM TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS ***

    A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE (do they mean subsidence? What kind of Substance? Sunshine? Clouds? Pine Tar? Dog Crap?) WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MASS…ALONG THE SEA
    BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING.

    THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS…HEAVY RAINFALL THANKS TO A DESCENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
    IN FACT GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY…THEY MAY TRAIN
    RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

    OVERALL…MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS IT WILL BE A HIT OR
    MISS TYPE OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY

    By their recent standards this is REALLY TAME. Very much toned down.

    So now will they be correct?

    Actually and honestly, I think the NWS has underdone today and downplayed it
    too much. We shall see.

    1. From Gray, ME NWS office

      BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON

      IN PART THIS LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY..

      OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER… STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

      Hmmm
      I thought tomorrow we had a cap, but not today. They say capped. It is
      NORTH of our area, so Not sure it applies to us. We shall see.

Comments are closed.