Thursday Forecast Update

152 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5…
Cold front slices into a HHH air mass at the end of the day today, but that doesn’t always mean widespread big storms for everyone. There will be some potential for isolated showers and storms ahead of what will probably be a line of storms approaching from the west by late afternoon and evening, but the best support for storms sits in far western New England today, so it’s possible that weakening storms will be what we see moving eastward. There is always a risk that colliding boundaries from older storms or other local conditions could help keep some stronger storms going, so we will watch this. Front moves offshore by early Friday. It only gets slightly cooler behind this front but somewhat less humid, so some very warm Summer weather will be here for Friday through the weekend, though humidity may creep up a little bit by later in the weekend. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or t-storm over the weekend either as a weak disturbance will be in the area. Similar weather is expected for Monday.
TODAY: Hazy with morning sunshine then partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible by mid to late afternoon then a shower or thunderstorm is more likely by early evening from west to east. Humid. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH. Variable and gusty winds possible with storms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of showers and thunderstorms early, then becoming partly cloudy. Lowering humidity late. Lows 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Daily risk of isolated showers/thunderstorms but mostly rain-free. Lows 63-70. Highs 83-90.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)…
Showers/thunderstorms August 4. Fair August 5-6. Showers/thunderstorms possible August 7-8. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)…
Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near normal but variable during the period.

152 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

    1. SPC has marginal for severe Just West of Boston Westward.
      Boston probably doesn’t see a drop today.

  4. Thank you TK. I must be acclimating…I like that word. It didn’t feel horrible to me yesterday. Easy for me to say, however, having access to AC when I want to move inside.

    1. Yuck, indeed. Low grade headache since Tuesday. Pressure behind my eyes. Often get it with this kind of heat and humidity. I’m hydrating like an elephant.

      Cape should feel a little better, OS, although I heard that yesterday it was almost as warm there as it was here.

      3. It was pretty toasty on the Cape yesterday.
        We’re having dinner at Bucca’s Tuscan Road House, then
        Cards at Friends cottage. We may have to forgo cards if
        place is too hot.

        Sorry you feel lousy. My wife doesn’t do well in this crap.
        We have 3 window AC units going, so it helps a great deal for her.
        Generally I am OK with it, but I do NOT like it.

    1. Fiction at it’s best. It has NOT nailed any of the recent convection, so why should
      we believe it today. We shall see. 😀

  8. Taunton office still at it.

    THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
    SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
    LOW LCL/S…BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

    This applies more to the Western sections, even though they didn’t make it clear
    in the discussion.

  9. Flying out to Chicago tomorrow afternoon!!! Nice forecast with maybe even a t-storms late Sun or Mon! 🙂

  10. Looking ahead to Tuesday August 4th from the GFS

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=132&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=132&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=132&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=132&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

    For the GFS, that is EXTREMELY Aggressive. Of course that is 5 days out there and
    much can change.

  11. Charlie, I actually am beginning to notice the change in daylight (which you mentioned in your post), especially early in the morning.

    It appears a piece of wreckage from MH370 was found on La Reunion, a French island in the Indian Ocean. Notably for us weather buffs, the island is known for truly incredible rainfall: Between 7 and 8 January 1966, Cilaos, which is in the middle of the island, received 74 inches of rain. This is the greatest 24-hour precipitation total ever recorded on earth. And, in March of 2007, the island got hammered with 155 inches of rain over a 72 hour stretch. That’s unfathomable. Next time I head to Reunion I’ll definitely bring my umbrella, galoshes, a poncho, and a raft.

    1. JJ did you take a look at the instability parameters that the GFS is spitting
      out for the 4th. Pretty impressive to be sure. Let’s see how much it changes
      with the 12Z run. Probably will go poof. 😀

      1. I’m thinking its all in response to its overall scenario of a 1,002 mb low just north of the border …..

        If that kind of low is going to pass somewhere through southern Ontario, then in theory, those instability parameters should maintain.

        If in its subsequent runs, the low isnt as strong or for whatever reason, not there, then, poof …..

        But, with such an anomolous vortex spinning over Hudson Bay, I’ll bet one of the disturbances pin wheeling around it will be strong enough ….. to support a decent for summer low pressure area passing through southern Ontario.

  15. Taunton at it again mentioning isolated tornado near CT River Valley
    ALSO HAVE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRIMARILY NEAR CT
    VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND
    TORNADOES…PRESENCE OF 30-35KT WINDS AT 925 MB AND LOW LCL FROM
    70+ DEWPOINTS POINTS TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL. IF ONE DOES OCCUR…
    AND THAT IS A BIG IF…IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD WEAKER SIDE GIVEN
    STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

    1. 3. Operational significance of LCL:

      Cloud bases: It determines how far air needs to be lifted to produce clouds.

      Tornado: In a supercell thunderstorm situation, a low LCL (closer to surface) increases the likelihood of tornadogenesis since the region of CAPE will be closer to the surface.

      http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/wrf20/2015073000/lcl.hr21.png

      In CT River area LCLS are in the order of 600 meters. 1100-400 meters in
      Eastern sections. However, the stronger 925 mb winds are in Eastern
      Sections.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/13/hrrr_east-us_00900_925_temp_wnd.gif

      Strongest 925MB winds are in Eastern Sections

          1. Everyone was laughing, and said how many superbowls have they won? Love it!!! The hatred and jealousy taste and smell like sweet cinnamon buns 🙂

    1. Depending on the gradient the next 5 days, Logan has a shot to accumulate perhaps all 5 days as hitting 90F. On the days it misses, it wont be by much.

  19. Tk, who is it in the Taunton NWS that keeps discussing tornado possibilities.
    Whoever it is, is obsessed.

    Now for today, is there a real legitimate threat or a pie in the sky remote
    possibility. Big difference. 😀

      1. No idea who? OR no idea if there is a real threat or not?

        Some helicity now showing on the SREF for CT. If there is a real threat, it sure appears to be a low probability.

    1. I still love this the hotter the better even though my clothes are pasted to me like cement out in the field , bring it on. At coffee break you would think cold drinks but nope nice hot coffee.

  23. I got the hazy sun out here adding to what is already a stickorama out there today.
    12z NAM EHI up there for western parts of SNE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=009&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=006
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Remember that a major component to the EHI is CAPE.
      Large Cape and low helicity still can produce high EHI.

  27. The hot weather is not everyone’s cup of tea, and surely affects our bodies in different ways. But, athletes, and in particular baseball players who don’t exactly overexert themselves, should be able to respond to these conditions. Especially when they play night games. Our $20 million per year failure at 3rd, Pablo Sandoval, found running the bases last night a tad too much effort for his portly frame. He exited the game in the 5th inning (!) due to dehydration. This is embarrassing. Cherington, please take note of this. You signed a man to a contract worth close to $100 million, and that man doesn’t care about his conditioning. He has a history of not caring. Laughable. I have noticed Farrell is tougher on his players in recent weeks, including the absolutely deplorable pitching staff. Exhibit A is Rick Porcello, who may not even be in the league next year. I am not exaggerating. That’s how bad he is. It’s way too late to be hard on them now. This team wasn’t prepared for the season. Plain and simple. That’s on the manager. The serious lack of talent is on the GM. May be headed for a 100 loss season. That’s really sad.

        1. Well since we have determined my favorite season, perhaps I should also come clean with my favorite type of precipitation. I love summer storms, thunder…tropical…or just rain, but snow will always be the nearest to my heart.

          As far as this weather, I enjoy it. But I have AC. I believe (opinion) that you can always get warm in the winter cold but you cannot always get cool in the summer heat.

    3. Agreed with most of what you said except for Porcello. Either he (or the coaching staff) messed with his mechanics and as a result he now thinks he’s a fireballer…not good for someone who is a sinkerball pitcher. When was the last time you ever heard of a sinkerball pitcher giving up 20 home runs in 114 innings!!! That’s nuts. Bob Stanley who had a great sinker gave up 19 home runs over two seasons in 1978 and 79 and pitched in over 350 innings in those two years!!! I think that if someone can straighten Porcello out (ie: go back to what made him a decent pitcher (215 innings last year 18 home runs allowed and 3.43 ERA).

      1. I tend to disagree with your assessment of Porkcello.
        Believe me, I hope you are 100% correct.

        I just think he is a triple A pitcher at best. He is a LOSER.
        He just doesn’t have what it takes, either mentally or physically.
        We’d be better served with the kids. Just my humble opinion.

        Time will tell.

          1. Here’s my problem. You provided a link
            Here are his ERA numbers

            3.96
            4.92
            4.75
            4.59
            4.32
            3.43
            BLOW UP

            He is a Mediocre pitcher at best.
            He has ONE anomalously decent year and the Sox pay him 20 million dollars? Ill-advised for sure.

            He’s a mid 4s Era guy in my opinion and that
            is not going to change.

            1. yep…his ERA has sucked but I don’t think he’s a triple AAA pitcher. I also never thought he was a #1 pitcher…at best a 4 or 5. I do think he is more salvageable than Joe Kelley…that’s a trainwreck.

              1. perhaps you are correct.
                Kelly has a great arm. Not sure how much movement his fastball has. Reminiscent of Calvin Shiraldi.

                In The majors if one throws a straight fastball, even if it’s 98 mph, the good hitters will tatoo it. It needs to move!

  28. For the payroll the team has and what they charge in ticket prices you deserve to see a better product on the field.
    It is a strong possiblity this team COULD finish in last place 3 out of last 4 seasons. Of course the one season they didn’t they won the world series.

  31. Quite a line in NY. Completely overcast here with a 87 temp, 74 DP and gusty wind into the low teens

  32. Are we in heat wave territory? I know we got over 90F yesterday. Probable today. Did we on Tuesday? I don’t think so. But, tomorrow looks like a possibility. No matter what, it’s pretty hot and tropical out there.

    The snow has not entirely melted close to where Santa lives, but the weather up there is still dismal and below normal in terms of temperature.

    http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

    Keith, you may be right about Porcello. My fear with him is that he goes the Bard, Hansen, Wasdin, etc … route. These guys had potential. Some actually did fairly well at the major league level. But, all of them `lost it’ at a young age. It happens. Sometimes pitchers come back after losing it. Kazmir comes to mind. But, that’s unusual. More commonly, once a pitcher loses command or velocity (Porcello’s issue is not velocity), or just becomes really bad, they more or less stay that way. That’s why I would not spend big money on any pitcher until they’ve consistently proven themselves at the major league for years.

    1. Yup, but the cloudiness “may” just prevent a 90 Degree reading today. We shall see. Boston (Logan) reached 90 yesterday, but Not on Tuesday due to sea breeze.

    2. I don’t think (with the exception of Bard) that some of the others had/have the potential that Porcello does. That being said I read somewhere where someone tried to compare Porcello to Koufax in his younger days. The only comparison there is that Koufax was only average at best in his first 5 years. The comparison should have only gone that far. I think the Red Sox problems are more with their non admisson that last year, this year and possibly next are “bridge years”. Their perception is that their fan base wouldn’t stand for 3 rebuilding years and so they went out and tried to patch up where they could and hoped for the best….a big failure.

  33. Just to give an idea of this air mass, the dew point is 75 in NYC. Ouch!
    That’s brutal!!!! 70 dew point all the way to Montreal!
    Norwood 73, Blue Hill 72, Springfield 73,
    Hartford 74

    It’s STEAMY out there!!!!!

  36. The latest HRRR run still INSISTS on convection NOW in Eastern MA
    way ahead of the line. WHERE IS IT??????????????????????????

  37. We have a little pre-main event activity out there between Hartford and
    Springfield. If they get strong, those are the type that are of concern.

  38. Oh, this is interesting and I DON’T like the sound of it at all.

    By Ryan Hannable
    After Minnesota judge Richard Kyle ruled the Tom Brady/NFLPA lawsuit against the NFL the case would not be heard in Minnesota, rather in New York, New York Judge Richard Berman released an order to both sides.

    In that order he states, “While this litigation is ongoing, it is appropriate (and helpful) for all counsel and all parties in this case to tone down their rhetoric.”

    Kyle also states he would like the two parties to come to an agreement.

    “If they have not already done so, the parties and counsel are directed forthwith actively to begin to pursue a mutually acceptable resolution of this case,” he wrote.

    For more Patriots news, visit weei.com/patriots.

  39. Quick non weather (or sports) related question. Has anyone updated to Windows 10 yet or is anyone planning to? I’ve reserved it on 3 of my 5 devices (2 desktops, laptop, netbook and small tablet) but the hidden download hasn’t started yet. Windows 10 was rolled out yesterday and is slowly getting out to those who have reserved it.

      1. I’m switching on 2 devices that have Win 8.1…Win 10 is supposedly going to be the best of Win 7 and Win 8.1 (much like Win 7 was the best of Vista and XP).

          1. They had roughly 3-5 million beta testers working on it for the past year or so. Heard mostly good stuff but there were some problems with the automatic updates (in the security and driver area). Supposedly you can’t turn the auto updates off unless you are running the Pro or Ultimate versions.

  40. Keith, agree 100% with your last statement and I think I also
    agree that porkcello might be salvageable, while Kelly may not be.
    I have a feeling Kelly is a CEMENT HEAD! Too bad with that arm.

    Not sure what Porcello’s problem is. At times he shows he still has it and at
    other times he’s a batting practice pitcher. Sad, really sad.

    1. I blame the coaching staff….if Porcello himself messed with his mechanics then it’s up to the pitching coach to do something about it.

    2. You are on to it. These pitchers have to be able to figure it out for themselves. They have great stuff. But I am not sure much goes on upstairs. The Patriots have smart guys. We may have a not very smart Red Sox pitching stuff. I really wonder if much goes on in Kelly’s head. That guy has a really great arm.

        1. Crazy!! You watch it’ll come through with a slight little shower, every time for what seems, “years”

  44. It’s steamy outside for sure and I am with Joshua, I get mild to moderate headaches with the humidity. The heat doesn’t bother me, but rather the humidity.

    That line of storms should hold IMO through eastern areas but slightly weaker. But the way the summer has gone here it wouldn’t shock me to see it fizzle right around the 495 belt.

  45. OS… I have no idea who is writing stuff at NWS. I don’t recognize most of the names.

    Summary…
    The isolated cells are popping – but they are very isolated and will probably remain on the weaker side, as far as storms go. The line from the west will not likely do all that much. It’s dominated by mid and elevated convection and has very little base/new development with it. However that will probably happen soon in western sections where the support is better. Forget any tornado risk. And as it all moves eastward into a region with much less favorable support, it should weaken and eventually fall apart. The lapse rates are terrible if you want storms. A cold front moving into a hot and humid airmass is not always a guarantee of big boomers everywhere. Could still have a surprise heavier cell though so don’t let your guard down just yet.

    1. Thanks tk 🙂 lol that’s not at you, just the showers that will dissolve, thanks for the update

  46. Line of storms strengthening and getting more organized extending from NYC to Springfield and moving east. Does that stay together?

    1. U beat me to it ace, i think the southern part of the line in CT will stay together, while the one in Springfield doesn’t look as organized

      1. Agreed 🙂 I was seeing the talks of storms fizzling and i needed to see it for myself but much to my surprise they’re strengthening

  47. The line of storms to our west seems to be intensifying. I think the southern edge of the line will make it to SE mass while the northern fringe will weaken as it heads to eastern mass

  48. That line is strengthening especially for south of Boston, it looks like from wrentham southward will see the brunt. I still think they weaken as tk suggested. They always do, why would this be any different?

  50. We don’t have the support to keep those things going that far east. They strengthened where they were supposed to – where the favorable conditions were. Watch them start to rain themselves out and eventually dissipate during the course of the next 3 hours.

  53. Right when the lawns are just starting to get a little heat stress, a decent little dose of rain comes. It’s been a great summer for lawns. Weeds are a little more than a typical summer because of the perfect timing on the showers, but the color has been a nice green. Just a couple more weeks to get through, then lawns will begin to recover. 🙂

        1. Limited help at best. 90 with full sun and drier air tomorrow and 80s with mostly sunny weekend conditions will take that away and more, unfortunately for lawns.

          1. Yeah your probably right, but my clients towards Boston has light heat stress, down here there’s nothing, I think we’ve gotten more rain down here, nevertheless we r through the worst of summer or that sun angle. Like I’ve said if it doesn’t rain for 2 straight weeks on late Aug, that’s ok, as supposed to no rain for 2 straight weeks in June or July 🙂

            2. At least you got by the highest sun angles without the worst possible conditions.

  62. 18z GFS aggressive with instability especially south of Boston. This not during peak heating time though.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=114&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=114&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=LI&hh=114&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=114&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=114&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=114&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. I’m not looking for a lot, just enough to wet the top soil, and that it did, it cools the top soils, you would be amazed just how .10 of rain can help a lawn. 🙂

  64. .10 doesn’t do anything for our area be we have had no rain in general. So yes maybe for your lawn but not for most people.

  65. Bandar Mahshahr, Iran today: Temp 109 / Dew point 90 / Heat index 154. Pleasant. 😉

  69. Rained a little in Boston. More is needed and won’t be coming, I think.

    The Red Sox are discombobulated, as reflected in poor Pablo Sandoval’s injury this evening: “Sandoval was belted on the left forearm by a pitch from Chris Sale that he actually swung at for strike three.” Try to imagine swinging at a pitch that hits you. Not on your ankle or foot (I’ve seen that), but on your forearm (I have never seen that). Pablo seems like a nice man. Jolly, kind to children, probably fun to be around in the clubhouse. But, as a hitter he has no plate discipline, and never has had it during his career. As a fielder, he has limited range, a penchant for bobbling and throwing balls away. Add to that, he’s in terrible shape.

  70. Agree Joshua about Sandoval except he’s been clutch when it matters most in the playoffs and I imagine the Sox brass thought that’s where he would earn his money.

  71. Good morning.
    Had a fantastic dinner at Buca’s Tuscan Roadside in Harwichport. Highly recommended.
    Back at friends place it wasn’t bad with a nice breeze for cards. On the way home rain off and on from about Yarmouth all the way to Braintree. Nothing really heavy.
    When we arrived home, although the streets were wet, there were no puddles, indicative of hardly any rain at all. No surprise there.

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