Saturday Forecast Update

86 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5…
A mainly dry and warm weekend with tolerable humidity for most. A passing disturbance later today may set off a few showers and thunderstorms, though any of them would be brief and passing. Heat and humidity increases Monday ahead of a cold front, and a shower and thunderstorm risk will probably occur Monday night with this cold front, allowing fair, warm, and less humid weather to return Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows in the 60s. Wind W around 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms at night. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 83-90.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)…
Below normal temperatures during this period. Watching a possible low pressure area that may pass south of the region or come close enough to bring some wet weather August 6-7. A second disturbance approaches from the northwest later in the period leading to a shower risk.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)…
A gradual return to near to above normal temperatures with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms during this period.

86 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  6. We have some action out there already, albeit weakening…

    Also, latest HRRR shows considerable convection this afternoon.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Interesting feature article on boston.com about the deadly heatwave of 1911 in and around Boston.

  9. The temp reading at Logan is starting to drive me nuts ….

    First with regards to yesterday …. I have seen days where the highest ob temp was 88F and yet sometime in btwn obs, we are told it hit 90 F. Yet yesterday, on a fairly sunny day with a decent dry westerly wind, there’s an 89F ob followed by an 88F ob and no where in there, it didn’t touch 90F ….

    Now, this morning, it just went from 77 to 84 … But watch now, after a 7F jump in 1 hr, it will probably rise a total of perhaps 2F over the next 4 hrs during max heating with a W and SW wind. Hmmmmmm ……..

    1. Stuck at 84 3 hours in a row. I think the little ole man taking the obs
      feel asleep. Waiting for the big jump. 😆 😆

      FWIW it’s 83.3 here some 5 or 6 miles from the airport.

  10. I wonder if there might be a few decent storms this afternoon and my only reason for throwing that out there is it seems the dewpoints are running a bit higher than projected.

    Low 60s in western and central Mass and then mid 60s, some even a few higher in southernmost and southeast New England.

    1. In the NWS discussion they did mention that as a possibility to the South
      due to higher dew points. Running about 65 in New Bedford, Newport etc.

      62 at Norwood and 61 at Blue Hill and 64 at Marshfield.

      Hmmm Plenty of lift available with the short wave. Bulk shear is up there as well.

      Wouldn’t surprise me at all.

      1. And the non-meteorological reason is that the neighborhood is having its annual summer block party this afternoon, so this itself is good for more than expected rain. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  11. Latest HRRR still calling for Convection in the Boston area in the 2PM to 5PM
    time frame. We shall see.

  12. Taunton NWS office, gotta love them.

    10 AM update

    In this section they say:
    NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

    DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

    In this section they say
    THIS AFTERNOON…

    COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

    😆 😆 😆

    Get it straight!!!!!!!!!! C’mon!!!!

    Are the dewpoints in the 50s or 60s. We KNOW from obs that they are generally
    in the 60s!!!!!!!

    So what is it going to be????????????????????????????????????

    I can’t stand them()!@*(#&!*(@&#*(!@*(#&!@#*&!*@#&*!&@#(*!@^#!&*@#^

  13. Thanks Tk 🙂
    Heading to my wife’s partners party tonight in Norwell. I expect any slight showers will be gone by 630?

  14. Tons of towering cumulus. Some really
    Dark clouds. Storms popping all over
    Including close to boston.

  16. Small trivia quiz (that’s not from AccuWeather) while waiting for an afternoon pop-up downpour:

    What do the dates May 17-August 3 have in common, at least in Taunton?

    1. Oh dear. I need a multiple choice. I have no idea. Some form of meteorological markers….how’s that for remarkably broad and vague 🙂

      1. Midsummer? Dog days of summer? Aug 3 seems early tho. Sad that 20+ minutes later I’m still trying to figure this out. I have a feeling it is like one of the questions on jeopardy I should have known but didn’t

    2. Haven’t a clue.

      How about the longest stretch without mentioning the word tornado?

      Longest stretch with no rain?

      1. Yes, Tom. Last 8 pm (or later) sunset is this Monday, at least here in Taunton.
        Alas.

  21. I am growing increasingly concerned about a night time severe event Monday Night
    Around 11PM or Midnight or thereabouts.

    Cape is unusually high for that hour in the range of 2,000-3,000 Joules
    EHI values are High.
    Vorticity Generation Potential index is at .5 (which is high)
    Bulk shear is about 40 knots, favorable for severe.
    Helicity is around 100 or so.
    Lifted Index is about -4 to -6

  25. It looks like maine is getting hammered again!! It seems like they have had more severe weather than we did

  26. Core Slipping just north of us …. But, I see what TK means about more activity the next 90 minutes.

    Both in sky and on radar, I can look SW and see more stuff developing …..

  27. Alright, I think we are headed out ……

    While the storm passed by, I peaked at the EURO and GFS ….

    The mid range period ……. Pressure pattern wise, looks like ….. well …… WINTER 🙁

    High pressure to our north, low to the south …… C’mon 🙂 🙂 🙂

  28. Thunder and of course lightening here. Heavy rain and wind Into the twenties. Looks to end as quickly as it began

  30. Hey Tk to bad you were not up Hampton last week as we could have arranged a meet up. My wife and son just got back today they spent the entire week there and I came back Tuesday night.

  32. Intermittently dark in Boston, but no rain or anything that I can tell. Boston’s been a hold-out most of summer. I did notice a very stiff breeze early this afternoon. Small waves on the Charles. Looked like an April or November wind (that’s when I tend to see the waves on the Charles), except it was very warm outside.

  33. Putting the links when the 18z NAM is most aggressive with the instability.
    This is at 6z Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    .5 in eastern areas to 2 in western areas

  35. 18z NAM at 0z time frame on Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. JJ there are timing issues there for sure, HOWEVER, I am still concerned that
      even over night, instability is high. Just hope we do NOT have a night time
      severe weather event. Some boomers, fine. Severe weather at night? NO
      THANK YOU.

  36. August usually signals change, analogous to February. Still summer in August, just as it’s still winter in February. Yet, changes are imminent. First signs are subtle in that we lose some daylight in the morning and evening. Other signs are less subtle. The red-winged blackbird hardly ever sings anymore. Just a month ago, his voice could be heard loud and clear and often. Now, it’s sporadic. Acorns have begun to fall. Not in abundance, but still. In a few weeks the changes will be felt by all, and visible to our neighboring states to the north as the leaves slowly begin to turn.

  38. Just came home awhile ago. Was at a function in Quincy where there was a brief
    10 minute or so down pour. Coming home it looks like NOTHING here. I suppose it’s possible a few drops fell, but no wet streets and NO puddles, indicative of next to
    NOTHING happening. SWING and a MISS yet again. ALWAYS the way here.
    I think there is a Charlie Hole Extension here.

    HOWEVER, it did NOT apply last Winter as we were continually in the Jack Pot
    area! 😀

  39. No mention of tornadoes when the NWS out of Taunton was mentioning the possiblity of strong to severe storms Monday night and Tuesday. I couldn’t believe it.

    1. Maybe they gave that staff member a Lobotomy!!!
      OR perhaps that person doesn’t work weekends or at least NOT
      this weekend. I predict tornadoes WILL be back in their discussion.

      Parameters support it much more now than when they were mentioning it.

  40. Saw the link you posted earlier from last night’s run of vorticity generation potential and it was quite juicy.
    Reading the discussion from NWS out of Albany this afternoon they were the front maybe a little stronger.

    1. I read the Albany discussion.

      I looked at the 12Z run of severe parameters since they mentioned that
      the LCL was too hight. They said about h850. (850mb or about 5,00 feet)
      I looked at it was at 1400 meters or about 4,600 feet. Close enough.

      However here, the level is at 600 meters or less ALL NIGHT. Less then
      2,000 feet.

      So it will be juicy here. We’ll have to wait and see if we maintain the instability all night. Time will tell.

    1. Need the GM and the Manager to go. Can’t have a chance until that happens and even then too much damage and baggage.

    2. Doubt whether Henry will sell the team.

      I think Lucchino will continue to work on the Providence project – moving the Pawtucket Red Sox to Providence. Sad for Pawtucket, quite frankly. I actually like McCoy stadium.

      It’s Cherington who must go. Practically every day we’re confronted with the stupidity of his moves. Sandoval may only get sporadic playing time the remainder of the season because he’s not as good as several much cheaper and younger players. Porcello may wind up in the bullpen with one more start like he had. And Ramirez hardly has any impact on this team. Certainly little of note in any of the Red Sox few and far between victories of late.

  43. Quick peak at 18z GFS for Monday night Tuesday MUCH less instablity than the NAM but still enough there for some good thunderstorm development.

  44. John Henry is an odd person. Bright. Certainly a good investor. Probably a good person. But, a peculiar man in some ways. I don’t like using the word creep to describe someone I really don’t know. Yet, Henry’s demeanor and way of talking seem a tad creepy. Well, at least he’s not Donald Trump: brash, arrogant, misogynist, xenophobic, and ignorant, all wrapped up in one unusual hair piece.

    1. I’ll give you that he certainly isn’t a Donald Trump, but your description of
      CREEPY is apropos.

      1. Sometimes I have found that when a person is extremely intelligent, some other part of his or her has to give a bit. Everything sort of equals out in a meant to be way.

    2. Former owners…

      Tom Yawkey = 3 pennant winners no championships in over 40 years
      Jean Yawkey = never even heard from her after Tom died
      Buddy LeRoux = Part of the interim years after Tom Yawkey died….tried a coup d’Etat within the ownership group on a night that a benefit for Tony Conigliaro (after his heart attack) was being held
      Heywood Sulllivan = Forgot to send contracts in a timely manner to Fred Lynn, Carlton Fisk and Rick Burleson allowing them to become free agents
      John Harrington = more worried about scheduling his alma mater’s (BC) exhibition game every spring against the Sox than anything else. Mo Vaughn was allowed to go under his tenure (aided by Dan Duquette on that one).

      Now GM’s
      Joe Cronin (late 40s thru end of the 50s) excellent ballplayer but a racist at heart. Don’t forget the Sox were the last team in the majors to bring a black ballplayer
      Pinky Higgins = another racist who also has a possible drinking problem and later killed someone driving while intoxicated
      Dick O’Connell = actually a decent GM who came close to winning a WS twice during is 12 year tenure
      Heywood Sullivan = See above…nuff said
      Lou Gorman = Nice guy who came close in 86…built up a good farm system but also traded away Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson…ooops
      Dan Duquette = more days in first place…more days in first place…more days in first place. Have about as much charm and charisma as the leg of a chair. Good points…he signed Manny Ramirez….Bad Points…he signed Manny Ramirez…last seen (until current Orioles job) trolling around Fort Myers (or was it Winter Haven then) begging to be kept on by the new owners.
      Mike Port = interim GM…not a bad guy
      Theo = brought us two WS
      Ben = brought us one WS and few last place finishes…jury is still out imho

      Managers
      There have been a boatload…
      The worst…Joe Cronin, Pinky Higgins, Johnny Pesky (yes he was a bad manager but also had bad club), John McNamara, Bobby V
      The best….Dick Williams, Ralph Houk (did well with a couple of really lousy early 80s teams), Joe Morgan and Tito

    1. Gotta love the misleading headline. “Temperature” and “heat index” suddenly mean the same thing. 😉

  47. 6z NAM for Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  48. 6z GFS for Tuesday earlier time frame than 6z NAM.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  49. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Chester and New Bedford hold the all-time hottest temperature for the region. What was it?
    A. 104 degrees
    B. 105 degrees
    C. 106 degrees
    D. 107 degrees

    Bandar, Mahshar, Iran had an actual air temperature of 115 degrees on Friday. The dew point was 90. What was the heat index?

    A. 130 degrees
    B. 154 degrees
    C. 165 degrees
    D. 180 degrees

    Answers later today. I got both right … finally!

Comments are closed.