Sunday Forecast

84 Comments

8:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)…
No big changes today. Cold air coming. Watching for some ocean-effect snow showers Monday but it looks like the wind is northerly enough for the snow showers to only impact Cape Cod and Nantucket.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Passing snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow showers possible on Cape Cod and Nantucket where minor accumulation may occur. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 20.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)…
There is plenty of uncertainty on how this 5-day period plays out as computer models are not handling the pattern well. This is a best-guess and subject to change. Storm passes south of the region January 8. Second storm brings light to moderate mix to rain January 9-10. Larger storm approaches by the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)…
Storm threat very early in the period followed by fair weather much of the remainder of the period. Temperatures variable in the region early in the period depending on the behavior of potential storminess, briefly colder at mid period then moderating slightly.

84 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you for the Sunday update.

    I am happy you said the models aren’t handling things well.
    Even so, I see a Huge change in the latest runs. Looks like the 1st storm
    is resolving into a, Suprise Surprise, LAKES CUTTER!!!!!

    And the following one is looking more and more like an INSIDE RUNNER!!

    SO there you go, the story of our Winter. Why bother with the 2 day cool down. Just
    let it stay mild. What’s the use.

    Hopefully, there’s still room for change here. I hope so. It was looking so promising.
    Ahh, the cruelty of Mother Nature. 👿 😈

  3. I wouldn’t expect change until latter January heading into February unfortunately. These patterns are stubborn and take time to evolve.

  4. Thank you tk as always 🙂

    Looked at a variety of models, the 1st 2/3rds of January look uneventful. Then I believe and this is just a hunch with a little bit of investigation, I think we go back to above normal temp wise, but a little bit more snow than we’ve had the 1st quarter of winter. 🙂
    Enjoy the day!!! Go Patriots!!! Many players are sitting this game out, even though they could easily be playing. The organization is putting health 1st. 34.4 degrees

  10. 12z GFS wants to give me 1-3 inches of snow with the weekend system. More Berkshires and northern New England.

  11. So much uncertainty beyond the end of this week, it’s really not even worth speculating on. It’s certainly a more active period- there will be storms, even if they don’t hit us. As it stands though, I like what TK is thinking. 12z GFS goes along nicely with that idea. Basically three storms. One way OTS on the 8th, a second one around the 9th-10th that could be similar to the one we had recently (mix), and a third around the 11th that could be larger with no confidence yet on the track.

    Go Pats!! A little worried for today’s game with so many guys sitting out, but still like our chances down the road. Saw reports that both Edelman and Vollmer should be back for the divisional round, hopefully some others too like Jones and Hightower.

  12. I am hoping my Cowboys could end a disappointing season on a winning note.
    What a difference a year ago on week 17 NFC East Champions a year later looking at a top 5 draft pick. Hopefully we get a reliable backup QB in the offseason.

    1. It’s going to be this way for a while…

      Watch the video that Scott posted if you can. 🙂

  14. Feels a bit like winter. It’s bright. Nice. I really don’t care whether it snows. To me, having it bright rather than gloomy (most of December was cloudy and rather gloomy, in my opinion) and wintry in terms of feel is fine. Monday and Tuesday this week really get me going. Invigorating. Air is fresh and clean. Insects are finally dead and gone. I know, I’m phobic. I don’t like them, and could therefore never live in a tropical place.

    1. We enjoy drumlin. Great day to go.

      Do you ever go for fright night before Halloween. It is perfect for little ones. My favorite is the switch in the house at the top of the hill just as you enter. Lights are off and she stands by the fire telling animal tales.

      The night revolves around many lighted pumpkins and nursery rhyme characters

  16. Well I made it to today without turning on the oil. Looks like Monday and Tuesday will finally crack me. Stinks because after that the heat pump looks viable again. Why does my wife always have to be so darn cold all the time??? 🙂

  17. Haha shield your eyes from the 12z euro op

    But yeah a great example of how much the upstream jet amplitude/placement influences where the storms go and how they behave. Need to figure out the polar jet before you can figure out a storm.

  18. Does anyone have a clue as to what the Pats intentions are today on offense? Brady has thrown the ball a mere 4 times for 20 yards. If the intent is to keep him upright and run the ball on every down, sit his *** down and but in G. Sometimes the play calling makes me shake my head in puzzlement. I’m all for player health over trying to obtain the number 1 seed but GEESH. It’s ugly.

    1. I’m thinking they need to establish a running game. And if the intent is to have him stand up, it isn’t working. He has been down and at least one was a cheap shot.

  19. Anyone else notice the play clock ran out before Tannehill got the ball? How did the refs miss that???

    1. The calls make me wonder…that was a dead play and should have been a 5 yard loss but instead a touchdown.

      1. A lot makes me wonder. Wouldn’t be good to get Mrs OS and me together. I think our thoughts run along the same line.

  22. I’m glad many are sitting, but why isn’t everyone sitting, why?? I would love to hear a weather blogs answers.

  23. Ok, we lost the first seed, sit brady he has been hit way to much., they were trying to get the running game going, but that bit them in the but. I can not wait to see Amondola and Julian back out in full force. Now we just need to have denver loose to someone in the playoffs as i doubt the chargers will win today.

    1. Euro is probably right mid run. Canadian is ok early but then explodes itself.

      GFS is a mess.

  25. GFS is all over the place, sort of like our Patriots. I worry less about GFS, though. The Pats have basically looked toothless and a bit clueless for 6 weeks. There are injuries. But, I’m afraid the team peaked too soon and can barely tread water, if that. I am surprised, because under Belichick I’ve never seen the Patriots play out a season this poorly. What facet of the game is there to like on this team right now? If we’re honest, not much, really.

  26. Patriots haven’t looked good at all lately but this was really poor. They need a bye week and then some.

  27. Patriots just need to become healthy, see you in the home divisional playoff game, period, thanks for the responses. 🙂

    1. We’ll see, Charlie. You may be right. I hope you are right. However, what I’ve been seeing is a mediocre team. That worries me. One bad game would NOT worry me. But, a stretch of games does. Especially since both sides of the ball are fair at best. 6 weeks ago, they actually played well against the Broncos for the most part. But, I haven’t seen them play well consistently in the last month and a half. And even before they lost to Denver I thought they were only so-so against the Giants and Bills.

      1. Unhealthy does not equal no passion and they have lost the spark…..for several weeks now. Something is up.

  29. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX01Je3WsAAviuL.png

    My attention has lit up.

    8-9th: Zonal flow forces storm into great lakes, pretty much stays put there with blocking in place. Meanwhile new energy helps to deepen the trough behind it. Gulf of Mexico moisture is picked up and you now have a new storm.

    10-11th: Meridional flow forces new storm to move northeastward. Whatever is left from the old storm will pick up the new storm and phasing will begin.

    How quick these phase will be the question.

    1. Looks like a stretch of unsettled from late on the 8th to early on the 13th, give or take…

      Long way to go for details, but some activity is coming!

        1. If you’re a weather nut, you’re a weather nut. And if you are a snow lover, well…. that’s just how it is. 🙂

        2. I like that you don’t fight the excitement, Scott. It is the best part of life 🙂

          The “passion” in you and WxWatcher and Matt is contagious.

          1. 🙂 I am going to go out on a limb and say what ever happens over the weekend will effect what happens early that week.
            I also think They will mainly be rain makers at the moment just based on my gut, just looking at the weather models generally in agreement in that there will not be enough cold air to work with mainly due to the weekend event pushing it out before hand.

    1. All about the wind direction, and given the GFS can’t forecast its way out of a room with 3 walls down right now, I wouldn’t trust it.

      Disappointed in that model after it had been doing well.

  31. If the euro is correct with the systems during the weekend/first half of next week, then it needs to be re-crowned the king as everything else shows similar ideas.
    even the EPS disagrees with it. (ensemble run average)

  32. I think there is some sort of winter warning up for outer Cape starting tomorrow. I know Harvey has outer Cape at 1-4″.

  33. Early next week storm and the models

    GFS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010318&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=234

    GEFS (ensemble)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010318&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=234

    Very similar, good placement but still rain due to warmer air in place GEFS is a tad weaker.

    Monday

    Euro

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010312&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=234

    EPS ( Euro ensemble)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010312&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=234

    Euro is inside runner heavy rain
    EPS looks like it wants to transfer the energy over to a coastal which becomes stronger, still looks to warm for snow ( rain/messy storm )

    sunday night-monday night

    Canadian
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010312&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=347

    further out to sea, nothing but some rain showers along the coast.
    closest pass is tuesday.
    The other models I have do not look right as some do not even have an area of low pressure over the lakes. totally different set up from the rest. All the models show temperatures to warm for wintery weather though.

    1. He will be disappointed if he’s looking for big snow as far as most of the region goes. 😉

  35. So the pats can play the texans, Bengals or Chiefs.

    I think the best team to beat denver in denver is the steelers over any of the other teams
    we can hope 😉

  36. Steelers may not have D’Angelo Williams for the playoff game against the Bengals which is big loss for them if he is out.

    1. Too early to pinpoint temps to within a few degrees 6 to 7 days in advance.

      And I can assure you it will not rain the entirety of next weekend. 🙂

        1. No we do not know that yet.

          There is an entire range of possibilities for all of those systems, except possibly the one that misses well south before the weekend.

    1. Any chance for snow or at least crappy weather for that date TK? The Patriots play well in lousy weather at home especially during the postseason.

  39. Skins vs. Packers. Matchup of two historic franchises!! I actually think the skins have a fighting chance the way the pack are playing. The Skins are also one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs.

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