Thursday Forecast

140 Comments

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)…
High pressure dominates today with dry and cold weather. The cold hangs on Friday as a deepening ocean storm passes well south of the region and only grazes the South Coast and Cape Cod with some snow. Scattered ocean-effect snow showers are possible in eastern coastal areas due to an onshore air flow. Another high pressure area brings fair weather but not quite as cold Saturday, and a weakening low pressure combines with a northeasterly air flow for more cloudiness and maybe a few snow showers Sunday. High pressure builds back in Monday with fair weather and the start of a significant warming trend…
TODAY: Sunshine, dimming late-day as high clouds increase. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 16-23. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow South Coast and Cape Cod with accumulation up to 2 inches possible, and a few snow showers with minor accumulation at most eastern MA and NH seacoast locations. Highs 30-36. Wind NE 10-30 MPH, strongest Cape Cod area.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible eastern to southeastern MA evening. Lows 20-26. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)…
Fair with significantly above normal temperatures March 8-9. Turning cooler with periods of cloudiness and some light precipitation at times March 10-12.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)…
Variable temperatures average close to normal with a few minor precipitation events during the period.

140 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. GFS snow

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030306/gfs_asnow_neus_10.png

    NAM 12km

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016030306/namconus_asnow_neus_17.png

    NAM 4km

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016030306/nam4km_asnow_neus_17.png

    RGEM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016030306/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    So there you go. Decide for yourself.
    Unless there is a Surprise, not much shaking.

  3. Some NWS graphics

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlf1/v/t1.0-9/12804806_958972657530439_1881464817303557104_n.jpg?oh=c2b4025f19b3ad7019cbedd433e59472&oe=575D5755

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12809558_958972694197102_238044237339976465_n.jpg?oh=08ff4b583ab09bf49c065d1c08f762ec&oe=5755921A

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/12321411_958972734197098_2793992695668142484_n.jpg?oh=a8ee4c445f2b3f297dfe75389c9be15a&oe=5759E305

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xft1/v/t1.0-9/12795514_958972650863773_2775685428627946555_n.jpg?oh=e4675381ad64607725cc4dffc5714110&oe=57574E57

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlf1/v/t1.0-9/12804806_958972657530439_1881464817303557104_n.jpg?oh=c2b4025f19b3ad7019cbedd433e59472&oe=575D5755
    Reply

  9. Thank you TK. Good to see we can still plan on our dumpster. Although, why I would prefer filling a dumpster with 37 years of attic junk to snow, I have no idea

    1. Record highs? Possible, I guess, but I doubt it.

      Was looking at the Euro temperature grids for next week. The highest I saw
      was around 63 or so.

    2. The subtle signals are there for break off bubbles of high pressure coming out of SE Canada which will provide a whole different world at the surface in eastern New England …….. Could challenge records in eastern New England if, while under eastern U.S. Ridging, a strong enough low travels to our west and the warm sector turns the winds SW.

        1. Me either. Bring it on. Anything above 55 is a win in my book. But I do need that 80 degree mark to hit my crazy prediction for march

  13. FWIW,

    The 12Z NAM shows ZERO synoptic snow up here, NOT even on the CAPE, however,
    it keeps a rather long period of LIGHT Ocean Effect snow going along Eastern MA.

    I’ll see what it adds up to on the snow map shortly.

  15. The met that wrote the weather blog this morning for ch 7 says Friday may be the last time it gets that cold again till the fall. I didn’t get the temp on the run.

  16. Thank you tk 🙂

    I agree John, I see mild temps starting after this weekend until the foreseeable future. We shall see. What a great winter IMO

    1. I respect your comment and opinions as you are much smarter in this dept than anyone else. However I believe this may be the one time in the last million you may be wrong. Who knows, but I do respect mets that look at the long range and see the atmosphere, and with confidence on news outlets say winter is over. If there right, then I give them great credit, if not then egg on there face. For them to be wrong in my book we would need a moderate storm of 4+ inches to fall. Again tk I do respect your thoughts. Thank you!!

        2. If tk is right,,, again!! Then I’ll sponsor his blog, and mention his website to 100’s of additional folks. 🙂

          2. I’m not being inconsiderate or rude, I’m very sorry if it’s taken that way, really. But I will, if he’s correct, I’ll put woodshill.net in 650 newsletters.

              1. Lol there’s much more to it than that. 1st there’s rights, copyrights, etc etc etc etc, I can just apply it not getting ok from tk, vice versa etc etc 🙂

                3. I believe so, many years ago, I believe he said the time wasn’t good. I’m sure there a long procedure on both sides. Maybe one day, ya never know 🙂

  20. Total snowfall @ Logan to date = 25.4″

    My snowfall contest number = 26.8″

    Perhaps Dr. Cohen can loan me 1.4″ between now and early April. 😉

  22. Strong, cold high pressure tries to push south from eastern Canadian on the 12z GFS next Thursday and beyond, curtailing any extended warm-up. Looks like we are going to be very close to the boundary between warm and cold air beginning late next week. Might get interesting if there is precipitation involved like the GFS is hinting at.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016030312&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=255

    1. Interesting.
      Perhaps Dr. Cohen will be correct?

      I would LOVE that only to put egg on the face of those who declared Winter
      over. 😀

      Time will Tell.

      3. Always foolish to declare winter over before early April in my opinion. It’s not hard to get a few shots of cold and snow late in the season regardless of overall weather pattern. It’s the few shots of springtime warmth (like next week) which we seem to get every March that lulls people into a sense of complacency.

          1. We do except I’m usually declaring winter will go till late April. On the other side this time

  23. Looks like the models are backing off on the forecast of -NAO as we head towards the middle of the month.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    AO however remains negative:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

    Hard to predict which way the rest of the month will go – there are many other factors as TK alluded to. But I could see us getting stuck in this boundary area between fighting air masses for awhile after the warmup next week. Not at all atypical for March.

  25. Think of it this way …..

    With the geography of Canada on our side of the hemisphere, where is it easiest to maintain cold air controls for longest ????

    In eastern Canada, where you have a huge expanse of ice that helps to maintain snowcover that then has the frigid to very cold Atlantic Ocean to its east.

    Conversely, western Canada is pretty much land. Easier to warm up land with the higher spring sun angle.

    Its the chicken and the egg argument, but its much easier for the atmosphere to promote a western Canada ridge and an eastern Canada trof in Spring then the other way around.

    I’m not surprised one bit that the models are increasing their signals of eastern Canada chill to seep down into New England in the coming weeks.

  26. Beautiful day, today. Not much wind (and this is a bonus in March when wind tends to be a factor).

    Weathermen and women should never declare much of anything in a definitive way except if it’s less than 5 days from now. Really anything beyond 5 days and the uncertainty becomes increasingly large. I wish mets wouldn’t be so definitive when they know better not to be. This is not Atlanta, or San Diego. This is New England where variability is part and parcel of our climate, especially in late winter and early spring. Quite frankly, a 75F day in mid to late March is just as likely as an accumulating snowstorm, and both can and often do happen within days of each other. Let’s see how everything plays out, and not be wishful thinking either for or against spring.

    1. I don’t know where you are Joshua, but here in Downtown Crossing it is quite breezy. I thought the wind would have subsided by now.

    2. I’ll say one thing: Doesn’t always seem the way that we resigned ourselves
      to Spring and really get into it, that Winter lashes back at us.

      Watch it do it yet again this March and/or April

  29. For the record, I was never asked anything about blog promotion. You can tell anybody about it that you want. I’m just not ready to pay for advertising. 🙂

    There are some exciting things in the works for WHW, but they take time. The first one will be announced this month. 🙂

      1. Who knows. I’d have to go back and read and I’m not going to do that right now. Just go ahead and tell people about it if you want. 🙂

    4. Very excited about things to come. I figure you absorb costs here. If I had a place to promote, I would fully plan to absorb the cost of that. I am always happy to spread the word. I saw my neighbor today. He said he has bookmarked the site. I hoping when he is comfortable that he will contribute.

  30. We may see one hell of a temperature drop around here between March 9 and 10… and possibly a bigger one between March 10 and 14, just over a longer time.

  31. 18Z NAM has even LESS snow than the 12Z if that is even possible.

    Looks like a few ocean flurries or intermittent very light snow at best.

    1. Negative snow. It would snow up from ground to sky if there was any snow on the ground. So I guess we’ll just go into snow debt. 😉

  33. A question–I’m going to be heading to Israel for two weeks on the 13th. I’ve been a dozen times since 1995, so I have a general sense of the climate at different times of the year, and understand that the differences in topography and such make for quite different weather outcomes over the course of a very small area. I’m looking ahead at the forecast to try to make some packing decisions–their equivalent of NWS has links to the ECMWF and a model called COSMO. Two questions–has anyone ever heard of COSMO and if so, know anything about its quality? Second–does the ECMWF have the same success in that region of the world as it does here?

    2. As far as I know, ECMWF does decently in that part of the world. I am unfamiliar with COSMO.

      They seem to be in a fairly mild/dry regime right now and may stay that way for a while as well.

      1. Thanks. March there is fickle…can be 40s and raw in Jerusalem and 80s ny the Dead Sea. I actually prefer cooler temps because hotels don’t turn on air conditioning until after Passover, which is late this year.

  34. Was look at my snowfall prediction and had 25.1 for Boston. I was closer to getting that right and way off on Bradley by a foot. Only 17.1 inches has fallen so far.

      1. Perhaps,
        But looking at it frame by frame, it also appears to have
        the absolutely closest pass of all models bring synoptic snow
        all the way up to Boston, albeit the Northern fringe.

    1. I am not too sure about that system. Looks more like cloudiness than much in the way of precipitation.

    1. All very interesting and such, but for the life of me I could not actually
      Find any model output???? Did you? IF so, do you have a link?

      Thanks

      1. Actually, I didn’t look too deeply at it. But now that you mention it, I couldn’t find any either. Probably for the best. We don’t need another underperforming model to distract us!

  39. If Logan doesn’t see any more snow, then Jimmy would be the winner…unless there is a closer number to the current total to date (25.4″). 😀

    1. Philip, you and JJ are incredible predictors if indeed no more accumulating snow falls in Boston (at Logan) between now and mid April (it could snow after that but chances are very, very small after April 15th).

      You mentioned the breeze today. Yes, there is a breeze. I just feel like today’s steady breeze is manageable and predictable, whereas the southerly breezes and gusts we’ve been getting from time to time are less manageable and predictable, and often associated with rain or rain showers.

      1. The last time I remember any meaningful snow in April was 97, and that was APRIL 1st which started March 31st. 🙂

    2. I am way off for the location here in my home state Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks yet if there is no more snow in Boston only off by .3 inches.
      First day of spring we should post the snow totals for the areas we predicted Bradley International Airport Worcester Providence and Boston and see how close or how far off we are.

  41. The Cosmo model … Sounds like something from the 60s, or a reference to Cosmopolitan magazine.

    First, 60s:

    Hey man, check this out. It’s cool, brother. Predicts weather, you know, as in clouds up high, sun in the sky, peace on earth. Love, man. I dig Cosmo. It’s far out, rad. Tells me everything I need to know about the universe and beyond.

    Cosmopolitan:

    The Cosmo model lets you know when you can cross that frontal boundary between friendship and relationship. Know how to navigate stormy weather between you and your man. Tells you not to fall for the guy who goes whichever way the wind blows. Suggests ways you can end your relationship drought, and bring the intensity back, avoiding dry spells forever.

  43. Nantucket will most definitely feel like a wintry island tomorrow evening, especially as the wind picks up and the snow begins to fall. It’ll be their private mini snowstorm.

  45. there will be little to no snow any where but some ocean effect which we all know does not accumulate in the Merrimack Valley almost never

    2. Yes, indeed. If the Bruins can solve some of their defensive problems, they will be a formidable playoff team. They’ve got firepower this year. I see them going farther than the Celtics.

      I’m surprised that there’s SO much focus in this town on the Celtics, who in my view are not a real contender. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them lose in Round 1. They’re fun to watch, young, everyone plays. But, that is NOT what it takes to win playoff games. You need go-to players and very few teams spread the minutes out among 11 players during playoff games. It’s mostly your starting 5 against theirs. Well, the C’s starting 5 doesn’t cut it. Almost no physicality underneath the basket, and without that you’re doomed in the playoffs. Ainge gets a free pass in this city, which is unfortunate, for holding on to picks and not pursuing a marquee player. He’s also made some really bad trades like the one that sent Perkins packing and may have cost the Celtics another championship.

      1. Celtics go to the finals.
        Bruins make it to the 2nd round then lose.
        Love my Bruins though!

        1. Bruins Suck and are totally and completely mismanaged
          from top to bottom. Just my 2 cents.

  47. 2km and 4km NAM say about 2 inches for Boston.
    SREF says 1-2 inches.
    HRRR says o to 1 inch operational, 1-2 inches experimental
    GFS and CMC say 0-1 inch.

    Take your pick or throw a dart. Lots of DRY air to overcome before anything
    can happen. Snowing above us already.

    1. No way boston gets 1 inch or two inches. The jackpot area will be on Nantucket . I think even down my way you probably won’t see anything acumulate till you hit Plymouth .

      1. Boston snow from Ocean Effect. Of course Nantucket will get
        into some of the synoptic snow.

        Watch that band up by Beverly heading into Lynn.
        That is moving in from the ocean and is moving NE to SW.

        That is how Boston “could” get an inch or 2, Not from the Storm
        off shore.

  50. Ocean snow could bring up to 1 inch or so to North Shore and Boston area this morning-midday, Boston area to South Shore this afternoon.

    Blog is updated!

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