Friday Forecast

84 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)
A taste of mid autumn today as a shot of much cooler air from eastern Canada flows across the region but once again by way of the Gulf of Maine, because of the orientation of high pressure causing a northeasterly surface wind instead of a northwesterly one. As we have seen many times, the high sinks to the southeast and it results in a warm up but with some cloudiness at times as we go into the weekend, which includes a Monday holiday for some, although that day will temporarily cool down behind a back-door front and another nose of high pressure from eastern Canada which quickly heads to the southeast as well and yy the time we get to Tuesday next week the region will be back into unseasonably warm air again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 57-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior rural and suburban areas, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)
The forecast confidence drops during the course of this period due to a few unknowns, including moisture from a tropical system in the eastern Pacific, which could reach the region by the end of the period. Before that, the same pattern goes on with a warm start, a brief cool-down, then a warm-up again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Low confidence forecast. Wet weather threat early in the period may be followed by a significant shot of cool air then a gradual moderation with mostly dry weather.

84 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Re-post of Boston’s record highs for the next couple weeks…

    October 5: 87 in 1922
    October 6: 86 in 1990
    October 7: 90 in 1963
    October 8: 88 in 1879
    October 9: 82 in 1942
    October 10: 87 in 1939
    October 11: 82 in 1955
    October 12: 90 in 1954
    October 13: 87 in 1930
    October 14: 81 in 1923
    October 15: 86 in 1897
    October 16: 88 in 1897
    October 17: 89 in 1947
    October 18: 82 in 1947
    October 19: 84 in 1945
    All of the records from October 20-31 range between 78 and 84 and were set from 1900 through 1979, so as you can see, these are all long-standing records as none of them occurred after 1990.

    Still feel that none of these will fall as the magnitude of warmth and timing will not be enough to take any of them down, with the possible exception of October 11 if the timing of a weather system is slow enough.

  2. Thanks TK !

    I like the weather offering this weekend. Chill tonight, some warmth Sunday …. a nice mixture.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    NO Drizzle this morning! In fact, it is a beautiful morning. This IS autumn at its
    best.

    LOVE days like this.

    re: last night’s game

    Well, at least it was enjoyable. Too much of the bouncy/dropsies for my taste.

    For all the talk of Edelman coming off of Steroids, he sure looked the same to me.

    I still think the Pat’s defense needs some shoring up some how, some way.
    Not too worried about the offense.

    1. My only concern about the offense is the drops/delections. They need to be sure to look the ball into their hands and cradle it, then take off running. The early drop by Edelman wide open down the sideline would have been a sure TD and sort of gave a bit of hope for the Colts for the rest of the game. A very nice surprise to see Gronk and with no injury to my knowledge.

  4. Thanks TK.
    Today and tomorrow shaping up to be great fall days.
    Yankees in 4 over the Red Sox!

    1. To be honest, I am concerned.

      IF Sale is healthy and wins tonight, then I say Sox in 5. Yes, it will be competitive
      and take all 5 games.

      However, if Sale falters, it’s ALL OVER! Yanks in 4. And a TOTAL and complete waste of an 108 game win season! Much like the Pats 18-0 season only to lose in the Super Bowl.

      GO SOX!!!!!!

      1. My concern is middle relief and closer as well. Thankfully the hitting is pretty much intact and can make comebacks if behind.

        The team with home field “should” win this type of series. 🙂

  5. If the Red Sox lose tonight with Sale on the mound to me there is a very good chance the Yankees will be up 2-0 going back to the Bronx with David Price pitching on the mound in game two. Price as everyone knows has never gotten it done in the postseason and with the exception of one game against the Yankees this season the Yankees have put up a lot of runs with him on the mound. I never understood the 7 yr 217 million dollars Price got for a guy who has never gotten it done in the postseason.

    2. I have a feeling that past history will mean nothing this time around whether it be positive or negative. Playoffs in most sports are a totally different season. We will see.

    1. That screen shot is from a Mobile App. I posted info on it the other day, but
      will repeat now as I do believe there are at least a couple of posters that would
      be very interested in this FREE app.

      Here is a screen shot from the Google play store. It is available on the Apple Store as well. For those interested, please check it out. It’s a pretty cool app
      to have handy.

      https://imgur.com/a/wtHN8Pu

    1. Those percent chances for development keep inching up higher and higher.

      The western Caribbean is the climatological place for development in October vs the longer track Cape Verde storms which are more likely in late August and into the first 2/3rds of September.

  8. Thanks TK. Chilly fall day today before what will likely be summer’s last gasp starts to move in. Next week continues to look very warm relative to normal.

    I thought the Pats looked good again last night, maybe tried to let off the gas a little early and got a little careless at times, but they were clearly the better team and playing against a not so good team that was heavily depleted. They’re in for a real showdown next Sunday night against Kansas City. They still haven’t shown they can hang with the elite teams, of which KC is definitely one. Next Sunday is their chance, and we should learn a lot then about their progress.

    Red Sox prediction? Win tonight, win the series. Lose tonight, lose the series. A must win game IMO.

    1. As long as they at least tie the series 1-1, they are more than capable of winning one game at Yankee Stadium, then winning game 5 back here at Fenway. I really believe this is a totally different team from Farrell’s.

  9. I was about to ask that question knowing David Price postseason history is this a must win? If Red Sox lose tonight the level of concern will go up a lot than what it is coming into this series.

  10. KC is one of the teams I think the patriots will fall to KC but the good thing is that its at New England, the defense of the patriots of course have done so much better without Eric Rowe.

  12. Matt,

    I have some how lost your email address.

    When you have a chance, could you please email me.
    Then I want to send you an install link for the latest version of the app.

    Thanks

      1. Thanks Matt. Please look for it sometime this weekend.
        I “think” you will see noticeable improvements. 😀

    2. Do you have the latest for iPhone? If so, I’d love it. I somehow lost the one I had when I changed phones.

      1. Sorry, not yet. I have not been able to produce for IOS 11.
        Only can produce for IOS10, but I have not looked into this
        in months and months as I haven’t had a chance.

        Will be getting to it soon.

        thanks

        1. Apologies. I thought you had said that and then thought I might have missed something. I am happy to wait patiently. I sure do think we all owe you a huge thank you for the work you are putting toward developing this.

          1. I’d feel better IF other bloggers who have Iphones
            could have a copy of this.

            The new look is far superior to the version
            you previously had. Just a matter of gaining experience with coding these type of applications and learning the scope of what can be accomplished.

            some screen shots of opening page (had to separate into 2)

            https://imgur.com/a/eKWuE4F

            Top left is a city icon. Tap that to select city
            Top right is Menu Icon. Tap that and get all
            of the various menus and submenus.
            No more facata buttons!

            Bottom left is the information icon.
            Next to that is the web cam icon, tap on it and get a webcam view of the city selected.
            Bottom right is the help icon. Tap on it and see how to navigate the app.
            Next to that is a Radar icon. Tap on that and go to a radar display for city selected.

            Hope to get Iphone soon.

            1. Wow – Dave!! Awesome. I’m hoping other iPhone users will try it also. It is a ton of fun but mostly has all of the information you need or want all in one place.

  18. 18 tornadoes back on Tuesday in the northeast two of those in CT bringing the total to 8 for the season here in CT. Pretty impressive number to have that many tornadoes in one day in the northeast.

  19. Bucket load of salt here for upcoming winter. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    Fresh European monthly data for Winter 2018-2019 features quite an active subtropical jet in the southern U.S. This would suggest there will be no shortage of coastal storms on the East Coast!

    February from the European monthly is a snow lover’s dream along the East Coast. Plenty of cold, active coastal storm track. We can dream, right?

      1. Winter 09-10 if that pans out where the Mid Atlantic gets clobbered. I will say this if we get enough east coast storms at least one will make it up here to get us in SNE.

  21. Here is the latest ECMWF temperature anomaly map for Dec-Jan-Feb as referenced in that Ed Vallee tweet that JJ posted above. Nice and cool over the eastern 2/3 of the US…

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1048221787308400646

    Combined with a subtropical jet, that could make for an interesting winter. Provided we don’t end up with a block where everything gets shunted south to the Mid Atlantic a la 2009-2010.

  23. Tough winter for a snow lover 09-10 missing out on those big ones. Next winter we made up for it with 6 week stretch from day after Christmas to early February with a lot of snow in that time period.

  24. 6 days away but I’m already starting to favor a faster timing for weather systems next week which would lessen the chance that the October 11 record would be challenged. If any day hits or exceeds 80 in Boston it will probably be October 10 and the record for that date is 90. Not happening.

  25. FWIW, the CFS monthlies latest runs basically show the following for SNE…
    November: Temps below, precip below.
    December: Temps below, precip normal.
    January: Temps above, precip above.
    February: Temps below, precip below.
    March: Temps below, precip normal.
    April-July: Temps above, precip indeterminate (trend has been drier).

        1. That figures that the one month in which precip above normal, temps above normal as well. Us snow lovers can never catch a break. 😉

  26. re: buoy data
    1. I have begun downloading the data to my desktop access database.
    2. I have done some research and it looks favorable to develop a mobile app using sql light and sql light database of buoy data.

    I am very encorages so far.

      1. If there is anything I can do to help, please let me know…..grunt work because I don’t have the knowledge you have but I’d be happy to do it

  28. Bunch of us sitting by the fire on the campground. It is cold !! Seeing 44F to 48F around us in south Plymouth. Stars shining brightly.

      1. A campground off of exit 3 in Plymouth, once off the exit, perhaps 5 or so miles southward down a winding road.

        I think this general area was the coldest area in New England. Far SE Mass radiated well last night. 🙂

  29. Red Sox hung on. The bullpen getting to Kimbel would make me nervous if I am a Red Sox fan. Yankees should win tonight with Price on the mound.

  30. Anything is possible. If the Yankees lose this game there is not a Yankees fan out there who thought they would lose two in Fenway. I thought it would be one one going back to the Bronx with the Yankees winning game two and losing game one.

  32. 41 low last night 40 DP low.

    The dew is Interfering with my morning coffee on the deck. I’ll havs to start bringing a chair inside at night 🙂

  33. As I posted way above, I found something last night and have added it to the
    weather app…adding another menu item called Weather Buoys

    Screen shots:

    https://imgur.com/a/wCh1EcQ

    I will be adding many more buoys.

    Additionally, My access database now computes the average water temp
    for our Boston buoy for any day of the year. I will now always know if
    the current temp is above or below average.

    Also experimenting placing a file in an app to display the average below the main
    display screen for the buoy. Getting there.

  35. Another issue I am seeing and will monitor is that in an area of the Rockies and in an area of south central canada the new GFS (FV3gfs) been showing 30 to as much as 60 inches falling by the end of the run, the regular gfs, euro and CMC, all have snowfall rates up to about 20 inches

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