Monday Forecast

72 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
New week, same pattern as last week. We’ll hear from 3 wet weather systems over the next 5 days. The first will be low pressure passing south of the region later today and tonight, the second will be low pressure passing northwest of New England via the Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night, and the third will be a low pressure area probably taking a similar track to the second one, approaching later Friday. Between systems 1 and 2, we will have to watch where a boundary ends up, regarding the temperature forecast for Tuesday, but leaning milder over cooler for Tuesday at this time with the boundary further north than some of the guidance suggest it may stay. Between systems 2 and 3, we’ll have a gusty wind Wednesday as dry air arrives and a dry and more tranquil day Thursday as high pressure crosses the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain arriving south to north during the afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog with periods of rain through evening. Isolated rain showers overnight. Temperatures steady evening, rising to 54-60 overnight. Wind E up to 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers morning. Numerous rain showers afternoon including a slight risk of thunderstorms. Heavier rain showers may result in street flooding and slippery conditions when combined with wet leaves so use caution if traveling. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers ending. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH evening, W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain afternoon and night. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
The weekend may start wet early Saturday November 10 but this will be followed by quick clearing and gusty wind with chilly air. Sunday November 11, Veterans Day, will be dominated by high pressure as a breeze diminishes with sun and some high clouds arriving, and it will be on the chilly side. The November 12-14 period is being watched for unsettled weather in which 1 or 2 low pressure systems will likely impact the region. Neither look major, but it may be cold enough so that we’ll be seeing some snow involved along with rain for at least parts of the region. Again, I remind you don’t see the word “snow” and think “snowstorm”. Much time to iron out details. Temperatures continue below normal early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
This is expected to be a drier period with temperatures starting below normal followed by some moderation.

72 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. It was a great day! I filled 6 large barrels with compacted leaves, most of which fell Saturday. The lawn cleanup is probably 75% done. I’ll run the mower over everything one last time sometime in the next 2 weeks. A few other odds/ends left to do out there and the yard is ready for the late autumn and winter. 🙂

      1. Same here. 13 yard bags filled. Took most of the day. I, too, am mostly done except for one stubborn tree who is holding onto her beautiful, golden leaves till the last minute!

    2. Son in law filled 1/2 of a black trash bag. We don’t get leaves; and after doing framingham, he was in his glory. Our grass is still growing, however, so that is still the big job. Hopefully this will be last mow.

    1. This is amazing. I think you have it. I need to open it on my computer vs phone. I love that you have spent the time on this. Thank you.

        1. I just checked on my computer and it sure seems you have found the base lodge. I’m glad you had fun with the detective work also. Thank your three children for taking part in the adventure to bring back some special memories.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Very satisfying Patriots win last night. Exciting game.

    What’s with the Gronk? My wife fears he may be done and I concur.

    Re: possible snow 11/12-11/14
    Long way out, but latest runs not as bullish as yesterday. We shall see.

      1. I don’t think so.

        My wife is very tuned into these things and she read PAIN
        in Gronk’s eyes every time he was tackled to the ground.
        Read that as his back is killing him. If he has to worry
        about excruciating pain every time he get tackled, it can’t help
        but affect his play.

        Here’s hoping he feels better because the Pats NEED him!!

  7. Thanks TK !

    Euro showing deep plunge of cold air long term. If this verified, Gulf coast would feel this.

    If the cold plunge were to go that far south, I’d expect it to occur more in the center of the country, i.e.; everything would retrograde a bit and the storm track along the east coast would be further west than has been being shown.

    1. That’s why I’m not buying what the GFS was selling for snow next week. It’s still fun to muse over.

    2. I agree with that.
      2 possibly 3 reasons I can think of right off the bat.

      1. In April There is still plenty of SNOW on the ground just to our North, while in November, typically not so much.
      2. In April, the ocean is almost at Winter cold, while in November it still
      retains much of the Summer Warmth.
      3. In April, still transitioning out of Winter with Winter patterns often still in place. The opposite in November, transitioning SUmmer to Fall to Winter. Winter patterns not in place yet.

  10. We actually have alot of cold air locked up in Canada. It has been one heck of a snowy fall for central and eastern Canada.

  12. Another off topic question if I may….

    Does anyone use an ear bud for their smart phones? I would love to transition away from a landline but need it and my plantronics headphone for conference calls and day long conference sessions. There are a lot of ear (or air as Apple has named them) buds out there but they are expensive so I’m hesitant to buy without a recommendation.

    Thank you for any help you have to offer

    1. I do not have a recommendation. I only use them when out shopping
      with the Mrs, so I can watch Netflix or You tube videos. I do NOT like
      them at all. They bother my ears and there is no way I could use them
      for more than an hour or 2. Best of luck.

  13. Ok – it can stop raining now. We have what appears to be the start of a SMALL sink hole in our front yard. It is near the street so hopefully, it will take the street before the house. At the moment it isn’t more than two feet or a bit more in circumference but my SIL could get a rake handle down about 30 inches.

    Meanwhile, the trees (seem to be the same type) that line the roads of our neighborhood have turned a lovely gold. Does that mean we have streets lined with gold???

    And finally, my business associate in York said their foliage had just peaked when the wind blew the leaves off this weekend and it has been dull.

  15. I FORGOT!!!!

    Now the models are available an hour earlier!! Hooray!!

    Other than showing colder weather, the 12Z Euro looks rather blah out beyond the 10th.

    1. Just as well. Plenty of leaves left on trees and ground. Although a bit of snow would make a nice picturesque scene. Month not even halfway over.

      Regarding the models, another reason to have year round Standard time, not to mention the am daylight. 🙂

  16. Tweet from Meteorologist Ben Noll
    The new ECMWF seasonal guidance is in. The essence of the forecast is similar to last month.
    -Higher than normal risk for East Coast storms – Feb still the ‘big’ month.
    -Temp departures still normal to below for the east.-#ElNiño event spanning 2019.

    1. I agree with that except the East Coast storms part should read “favoring the Middle Atlantic southward”.

          1. Yes, for sure.

            Nothing is totally for certain at this point, but
            I don’t like to hear things like the action
            will be mainly in the mid-Atlantic. I HATE that!

            BUT, at least, I won’t be expecting the action
            to be here. If it is, then that would be a bonus.

            Time will tell. Most Winters have some sort
            of surprise for us.

            I just despise wasted cold. IF it’s not going to snow, then I’d rather a nice warm Winter.
            I do not want a cold snowless Winter! NOT, NOT, NOT, NOT, NOT!!!

            So, here’s my TK prediction for Boston Snow.

            27.375867534214322223 inches. 😀 😀 😀

            1. I am not trusting the long range models all that much at the moment. Watch everyone is going to get angry with January with all the activity going to our south, then February comes around.

  17. It will be a cold winter. A few weeks ago when I parked my car in my parking spot at my condo complex a piece of wood was sitting there. I had no idea where it came from. My mom and stepdad have a wood stove and I took it back to them to use and said to them its a sign were going to have a cold winter.

  18. the EURO ensembles are showing anything from no snow to 14 inches, been that way for two days or so. It just goes to show you that even though the operational euro is not showing a decent storm, its still very much on the table. One thing for sure, It sure does look like the ski areas will be able to kick up those snow guns next week. Wachusett can not open for a while because its own by the state, but I bet they will try and make snow soon so they can open day after thanksgiving.

    1. this also goes that even if it does turn out dry, snow making technology has advanced so much and has become cheaper for ski areas, that if we have the cold at least and it stays cold we still can have decent skiing.

    1. If I’m going to be so brave as to guess that, I’ll say 1, maybe 2 and they won’t be blockbusters.

  23. 12z Euro run total snow through 240 hours:

    https://i.postimg.cc/jdfTzSRg/Capture.png

    Most of that snow in northern NY and northern NE is from the Saturday storm. Not much of anything in SNE. The operational run has, at least temporarily, seemingly lost the storm for next week altogether.

    The 18z GFS however has it as a coastal hugger with some accumulating snow in interior SNE. Major snows further west in western PA and NY.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018110518&fh=240

  27. TK – Could this actually be in jeopardy?

    1936-37 = 9.0”

    I would hope that Logan can squeeze out at least 1/2 if its normal seasonal snowfall.

  29. Looks like the “wettest ever” year at Boston record will be safe. They’d need another 16+ inches before the end of December. Not going to happen. The long standing 65 inch precipitation record from 1878 will remain on top of the list.

    1. As usual each run will be different. I know alot of folks like to have fun with that (I do too) but from a forecasting standpoint I’ll be focusing harder on the general pattern once we are out more than a few days.

      BTW I have noticed FV3 is doing much better. They must have made a tweak.

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