Friday Forecast

172 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)
Today is a weather app lesson day. Your app (or perhaps your local media) has warned you about heat, but what about the details? What about the fact that overnight the wind switched slowly from east to north with a marine layer in place, including a great deal of lingering clouds, and fairly cool (and not too humid) air? That’s part of today too, and that’s how the day starts out. But as the wind switches to south and southwest during the morning, things change. The clouds (where they are) will be scoured away leaving a sun/cloud mix, and in will come the higher humidity with building heat for the remainder of the day, and we’ll reach our high temperatures for today from mid to late afternoon. But today is not going to be “the hot one”, or “hot ones” in this case. We have 2 of them coming, fitting neatly into the weekend. The specific high temperatures will depend on your location, and wind direction. I don’t think Boston makes 100 because I think the wind will be not west enough (read that as the wind will be southwest, not west) on Saturday, and by Sunday, when it is, the core of the heat will have passed just enough to again keep them under the century mark. Your ideal weather conditions to get 100 degree heat to the coast including Boston is a west or west northwest wind which comes down off the slopes of the hills to the west, compresses and heats up, but also dries out somewhat. So I’m going to forecast no higher than 96 Saturday and 97 Sunday for the airport itself. If you go back to places like the Merrimack Valley, then you have a much greater chance of seeing triple digit high temperatures. Remember that the news media is going to hit you with “feels-like” temperatures, which will indeed exceed 100 in many locations on both days, but that can also vary from person to person depending on your level of tolerance and your health, so instead of worrying if the heat index is 107 or 110, just take it easy, and do the things you know to do and have been reminded of a zillion times. You’re smarter than they give you credit for. Pardon my digression, but I feel it is important to say these things. Back to the weather… When does the heat break? Monday, probably with showers/thunderstorms as a cold front moves through. But some areas may be visited by a shower or storm late Sunday as well as the front will be approaching and making the atmosphere a little less stable than it will be beforehand. Our storm chances are limited to a low risk of an isolated pop up air mass storm late today and are pretty non-existent Saturday. There is a wild-card in forecasting at this time of year that can also have an impact on temperature reality vs. forecast, and that is debris cloudiness from upstream thunderstorm complexes that usually visit the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and nearby Canada. One such complex, or the remains of it, may be diving through NY State early Saturday and spread some cloudiness into southwestern New England, but I don’t think it will get into the WHW forecast area to have an impact on temperatures. Another such complex may cross parts of northern New England Saturday night and toss some cloudiness into northern portions of the WHW forecast area early Sunday, but this also remains to be seen, depending on the details of any storm development out there, and something I can adjust for in future updates if needed. There has been some interesting things on guidance in the last several runs, with some models now bringing wet/cool weather into the region for Tuesday, instead of previously-mentioned dry and seasonably warm summer weather. I am not falling for those model runs at this time, and staying with the previous forecast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then partly sunny. Becoming very humid by midday on. Highs 80-87 Cape Cod, 87-94 elsewhere, occurring late day. Wind light variable becoming S to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Very humid. Lows 72-79. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Very humid. Highs 93-100, hottest Merrimack Valley, except 85-92 South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 74-81. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Party sunny afternoon. Moderately humid. Highs 93-100, hottest interior valleys, except 85-92 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Moderately humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)
The upper ridge will have pushed back into the Upper Midwest and Plains allowing the jet stream to sink down over or south of the region and bringing more seasonable air to the region at midweek next week, but expecting mostly dry weather at this time. May have to watch a quick wave of low pressure around July 25 that may bring more cloudiness. Some increased heat and humidity possibly by the July 27-28 weekend along with a slightly better risk of a shower or thunderstorm at that time, but this is a lower confidence forecast this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)
Near to above normal temperatures expected with a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as we say bye to July and welcome the arrival of August. The overall pattern will probably feature a weak westerly air flow with flat ridges of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast and over the Midwest.

172 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. I’ve already had customers saying “Where’s all the heat they’ve been talking about…..?”

      1. A little further south, Topeka, Kansas maxed out at 97F with a 76F dewpoint for a heat index of 111F.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    After looking at all of the guidance and reading the NWH discussion and TK’s discussion, Here are my high temperature predictions for Boston:

    Friday: 92 Heat index 98
    Saturday: 98 Heat index 107
    Sunday: 99 Heat index 108

    With the outside chance Boston hits the century mark on Saturday and/or Sunday with
    heat index 110+. Time will tell.

    1. I hope it breaks a record . Wonder how hot it will get up North on the beach . I don’t even flinch at any of these numbers & remind you a lot of my time is spent outside in these conditions . As I’ve said before it’s my makeup it’s how I grew up on the beach we wanted hot & dry days . Saying that I sincerely hope the folks who struggle with this can PLEASE find yourself a safe cool location & stay there & drink plenty of water / Gatorade.

      1. Hope you enjoy. I can take the heat, but less so as I get older.
        It absolutely puts my wife away. When it gets humid, she has
        trouble breathing. We’ll start the ACs early in an attempt to
        keep up with the HEAT.

        If it weren’t for my wife, as long as it’s going to be hot, I’d
        go for the record as well. But NOT now.

        I believe the record for Boston tomorrow is 101. Slight chance
        of making that, but not probably not likely.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I listened to a weather discussion on NPR while I drove home from an appointment yesterday. There was a discussion of how weather has progressed. The thinking is that for every decade, the ability to predict out increases by one day. Brie Eggars was part of the discussion. The book being discussed is The Weather Machine.

    What I found really curious is a woman who called in to say she finds her apps far better than watching a weather forecast on TV. She travels and said in two cases, the apps had saved her. In both instances the TV met had said basically a good day. In the first, there was a severe weather instance where she received a warning from her app and was able to take shelter. In the second, she was in tornado alley and again received a warning and minute by minute coverage.

    To me, this didn’t make a lot of sense. An on air meteorologist cannot warn unless you are watching TV. Brie Eggars explained that they are on air only set times. If there is an emergency, they then preempt the TV show. It seemed the woman caller was using the app not to tell weather but to give warnings. That makes sense, but it seemed muddied.

    Anyway – sorry for the long and not very clear explanation.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/06/30/736822395/how-the-advance-weather-forecast-got-good

    2. That caller has hit and miss bias I guarantee it. A lot of people who swear by weather apps only randomly check them and never pay attention to all the misses they have especially when it comes to longer range forecasts. And since these apps have the ability to geolocate you and ping you with a notification about severe weather – it will seem like a lot of ticks in the hit column. A tv broadcast is more spread out and people will see a broadcast one or two nights before that call for one thing – keep that in their mind and not watch the latest broadcasts when guidance changes. Thus they will mark that as a miss for meteorologists. And any misses are far more amplified for tv people because the unwashed masses love feeling a sense of superiority over people educated on a subject.

      That’s my feeling anyway.

    1. What about poor souls stuck in a city apartment without AC???
      What about the elderly in those situations??

      There WILL be deaths this weekend, as sad as that sounds.

  11. John Keller’s commentary on WBZ radio was priceless this morning.

    I have to see if there’s a link to it…

      1. It might take me awhile to get it if I can find it at all because I’m not really in a place right now that I can easily do it.

  14. Trying the temp predictions at Logan

    Today : 91F btwn 4 and 5 pm

    Saturday : 100F btwn 3 and 4 pm

    Sat night : overnight low at Logan of 84F

    Sunday : 98F btwn 1 and 2 pm

    1. Tom,
      Those are as good as any.

      I actually feel Sunday may be a degree or 2 hotter than Saturday.
      We shall find out. 🙂

      That overnight low looks to be record territory.

        1. So far so good and thank you very much.
          House was nice and cool this morning, but that won’t
          mean much come tomorrow.

  15. Logan has a light SE sea breeze and the temperature isn’t budging stuck at 73.

    Just looking out my window it appears to be BLAZING SUNSHINE, so how could it
    only be 73? Armpit nation!

    Anywho, most areas will be 90+ soon enough.

  16. Where I am its partly cloudy but the dew points are up from last evening. Last evening the dew points got to where it is considerable tolerable for the time of year in mid 60s and I was able to open my windows sit out on my deck. As soon as that sun comes out here temps will climbing big time.

  19. If Logan records exactly 100 degrees tomorrow should it be accepted since they still have thermometer issues? What are your thoughts on that TK?

  20. FWIW,

    The 12Z GFS is in and says:

    Friday: 93
    Saturday: 100
    Sunday: 100

    Take it for what it is worth

  21. No matter what the highs this weekend end up being it is going to be a STICKORAMA SWEATORAMA or whatever word you have to describe the heat.

  22. FWIW, my Euro service with whatever they use to determine high temps
    has :

    Friday: 93
    Saturday: 98
    Sunday: 100

  23. Another run or 2 of the GFS for Monday and it will have the wave on the cold front Monday traveling over Buffalo, NY and we’ll have a thunderstorm threat.

    Took a further west jump on this 12z run for sure.

    Let’s see if the Euro follows suit.

  24. NWS point and click for Hartford going for 101F on Saturday, 79F for a low on Saturday night, and 99F for the high on Sunday with a heat index of 111F Saturday.

    This is certainly not without precedent as this tends to happen every 4 or 5 years. That said, this is pretty much as hot as it gets in SNE. All time record in Hartford is 103 so we are only 2F off if that verifies.

    1. The horse show I mentioned a few times where my daughter pulled her horse out (and then was screamed at by her trainer) was 101 over the July 4 weekend in Farmington, CT. I’m trying to recall the year. Perhaps 2000.

  25. Anyone want to join us on Block Island tomorrow? NWS has actually lowered the high temp there to 82F under mostly sunny skies with a west breeze of 10-13mph. I guess we picked a good day all things considered. Thank you Atlantic Ocean!

      1. Yep, you called it! Yesterday however the NWS was going for 88 there. Not sure what changed….maybe a stronger west wind off the water?

    2. My friend is heading to Block Island on her boat. If you see the Maximum Bob docked there make sure you stop and say hello. Tell them I sent you!

  26. This puts things in perspective 🙂

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 13h13 hours ago

    Hah! Always a seasonal comparison in New England.

    Let’s look at it this way…Boston has had 25 days 100+ in 146 years.

    Boston has had 24 days with 13″+ of snow

      1. Since 100 degree days are somewhat rare, that would mean snow 13”+ as somewhat rare as well. 😉

  27. Noon news…

    “Let’s go live to [reporter’s name] in South Boston to Carson Beach to see how people are coping with this extreme heat…”

    Meanwhile in the corner of the screen…
    “Current temperature: 75” ..

    HAHAHAHA!!!!!

    1. I’ve had several calls this morning “will you even be open this weekend with all the heat …..?” People seem to think Godzilla is attacking…..

  30. I am not impressed so far with the thunderstorm chances to break the heat. Sometimes we get some good thunderstorms when a front comes through to knock down the temps and humidity.

  31. Logan is up tp 88 with SW wind. Many stations have hit 90 already.
    Boston CERTAIN to surpass 90 today, imho or not so h o.

    1. Interesting. That was a quicker jump than I expected by a couple hours.

      If I recall your earlier post, 12z GFS went for 93 today. Let’s see how it verifies since GFS is going for 100F tomorrow.

  33. Boy, the cold front really doesn’t move very far offshore early next week with the 12z Euro now rippling its low over southeast mass mon night/tues morning.

  34. Out running errands I don’t care to do in the weekend heat.
    As it is, car thermometer reading 93 whole driving and it is oppressively Humid as well. I shutter to think about tomorrow
    with higher launching pad for temperatures and building heat.

  35. With the 12z EURO run the very least a good opportunity for a good amount of rain. In terms of strong to severe storms not so sure.

  36. Re: Keller’s commentary. He’s going after the same people that wish for heat then turning around and complaining about it when we have it. THAT is what I am talking about. And the fact that people who have comfort still complain incessantly about everything, including their comforts. He’s spot on.

    3. If you want to hear complaints try working at a retail business in an extremely affluent community. My staff and daily endure what I can only call temper tantrums. I am regularly spoken to in a manner so rude ( by people who can barely look up from smart phones ) that I just cannot fathom why anyone would speak to another human being that way. I’m in my fifties and do not recall that kind of interaction on any kind of regular basis when I was growing up. Today people walk in the door complaining about stuff they haven’t even bought and when that isn’t enough they take it online to “review sites.” I always wonder when a person is writing a review of a restaurant and has puked out six paragraphs describing total emotional devastation ( and we haven’t gotten past the salad course, maybe it’s them……? I deal with it all day every day…..

  39. From NWS in Boston. To me its a low chance but something to keep a tab on.
    The other concern Sunday afternoon and evening will be the potential
    for convection, but this remains quite uncertain. The highly
    anomalous heat/humidity coupled with an EML in place will result in
    a tremendous amount of instability for this part of the country. We
    will probably see Cape values on the order of 4,000 J/KG. A cold
    front will be dropping south into the region, but there is limited
    upper support. That means there is uncertainty if we are able to
    bust the cap. If the cap holds, we may remain completely dry. On
    the other hand if it breaks, there is some high end severe weather
    potential given the environment in place.

    1. Cool! Well damn hot!!

      Funny thing, both 18Z NAMS have backed off on the heat, well relatively
      with only highs of 93 and 95 for Sat and Sun. I think that is UNDER done.
      We shall see.

  42. And Block Island projected high temp has shot back up to 88 for tomorrow with a steady dewpoint of 73/74 all day. That’s a heat index of 96. So much for the relief!

      1. True indeed. The 70F ocean temp will feel nice and I will definitely be taking a few dips along our bike ride.

    2. FWI, the same hrrr 18Z run has Block Island at 76 when Boston is at 101 and Albany at 103.

    3. If it means anything at all, it is only 73 at Block Island right now.
      That 88 is pure bullshit. Ain’t gonna happen. Well in my opinion it’s not.

    2. What is interesting is that a 103F air temp and 75F dewpoint yield a relative humidity that is only 41%. This is why we use dewpoint to calculate how muggy it feels in the summer, not humidity.

      1. Relative humidity is basically meaningless, most especially in
        the Summer. 🙂

        btw, those numbers equate to a heat index of 117 !!!!!

          1. I wonder if one rounds a constant or something?
            The formula itself is quite complicated as I have
            used it in code for my weather app.

    1. I think it was 93 at my house for sure. I don’t know about the damn airport
      as that place is useless.

    1. Read above and then see what you think.
      That above discussion from the NWS is the strongest worded HEAT discussion
      I have ever seen for SNE.

    2. ……Or perhaps not after reading that discussion from the NWS. Wow. They are talking about the 850mb temps supporting highs up to 105F and heat indices to 115F in the Merrimack and CT River Valleys!

      1. Pretty amazing. Wonder why the NAMS are off?
        Do they see something that others have missed?

  49. All-time record high temps by from coolwx.net…

    MA: 107F in New Bedford and Chester in 1975
    CT: 106F at Danbury in 1955
    NH: 106F at Nashua in 1911

    No idea if these are “official” or not.

    All-time record highs by City:

    Boston: 102F
    Hartford BDL and Bridgeport: 103F

    1. It is NOT accurate.

      Boston’s all time high is 104.
      And I NEVER trusted that New Bedford 107, even though it may be “official”.

    2. Oops sorry for the misinformation on Boston. I guess that site needs some updating. I am confident the 103F is correct for BDL however.

  50. I had never seen the movie Secretariat before and I was surprised at how well it was done and how much I enjoyed it.

    1. I don’t even report my Accurite anymore. It’s more like AccuWRONG!
      I used to love it and now I HATE it to death and I cannot stand Accurite!!!!!!!!!!!
      !@)(#U(!@)(#&!(*@#$&*!@&$*(^!(*@$&(*!@^$&^!@(*$^!&*@^$(!@*$!(*@&$(!**@$&(!*@^$(*!^@(*#$^!(*@$^!(*@^$(*!@^$(*!@^$(^!@(*$^(!*@^$(*!@^$*(!^@$(*!^@(*$^!(*@^$!*@^$(*!^@(*$^!(*@^$(!*^@$(*!^@($*^!(*@$^!(*@^$(!*@^$(*!^@($(!*@^$(!@*$^!(*@^$!*@$^(!@$*^!(*^$(!*@^$*!^@($*^!(@$*^(!*@$^!(*@$^!*^@$(!@$^!*@^$(!*@^$

      1. My report came from a nearby station. It happens to match mine. I’m having a love hate relationship with mine also

  54. Dave…
    Sincerely wishing Mrs. OS all the best throughout the next couple of days.

  55. Eric is right. There has been 25 100 or greater degree days in Boston weather history.

    I had 24 yesterday. I missed 1949 that had two 100+ days. It was 100 on July 4, 1949 and 101 on August 10.
    I just noticed that it has been triple digits on July 4 in Boston three times, 1911 (104), 1919 (101) and 100 (1949)…

    The 107 in New Bedford was recorded on August 2, 1975 on the roof of the New Bedford City Hall on William St.

    All-time dewpoint records: BOS 79 (1940; 2001); Worcester 80 (1982); Hartford 82 (2002) and Providence 81 (1977 twice).

    1. You missed 1949….let me repeat YOU MISSED 1949.

      Don’t you know that is one of the most momentous years in history….specifically June 18 of that year

      😉 🙂

      2. No 100 degrees the year I came into this world. I guess they knew that I’d be pissed off.

    1. Thanks for sharing, Vicki. I don’t even vaguely recall him as a Giant or Patriot. I would be curious if he played in any regular season games with the Patriots or just the preseason before being cut.

  57. The tv mets are now focused on Sunday as the “hot” day as opposed to tomorrow (Saturday).

    I predict 101F at Logan on Sunday…fwiw.

    Whether it will be “accurate” with its thermometer issues, that is another story. 😉

    1. Yeah like 98 or 99 isn’t hot. 🙂 🙂 🙂
      cracks me up.

      btw, would not surprise me if Boston hit 100 or 101 tomorrow
      and 102 or 103 on Sunday. With that thermometer watch it hit 105. 🙂 🙂 🙂
      for an all time record high.

      1. Regardless that will make 8 days of 90+ temps for the season. Average is 14 days. I have a bad feeling well above for the season.

        If I have lost count, let me know by all means.

  58. A really incredible thunderstorm wind event, among the most impressive I’ve seen, is ongoing in the Upper Midwest. A classic high end derecho in one of the most favorable convective environments you’ll ever get. The NWS warning text is advising of winds to 90mph, though though localized gusts of 100-110mph are probably possible based on elevated radar returns that at times have been 130-140mph.

      1. Yes, looks like an embedded tornado within the line, but with those kind of winds it’ll be hard to tell the difference.

  59. 00z NAM continues to send low pressure on cold front Monday night further west, now through central NY state.

    I think that low has the potential to give some part of the northeast a lot of rain later Monday into early Tuesday.

    More ground moisture for the next ridge set – up later in the summer to evaporate under the blazing sun, helping to cause these mid and upper 70 dew points.

  60. That MCS currently in Wisconsin, I would think, is likely to provide some cloud debris in the northeast, at least through early to mid morning tomorrow.

  62. Boston, Worcester, Providence and Hartford, the 4 southern New England major climate sites all have an 11pm dewpoint of 75F.

  65. YUCK!!!!!

    78 with dp 74 here…
    82 with 73 dp at the airport.

    ALL model runs have knocked a few degrees off the high temps for both today
    and tomorrow.

    I get the feeling they may be wrong… Hope they are correct, not that 96-98 isn’t hot enough.

    1. NWS has backed off a tad.
      Previously they called for 98-103
      Now saying mid to upper 90s.

      TK was right all along. 🙂

  67. The update will be early 9AM hour. I’m taking a walk first.

    In the mean time here is a kind of accidental photo I got last night at Hampton Beach while taking twilight shots. The little girl was not planned but when she and a couple family members / friends came running by I kept clicking.

    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/67272153_10157464629347265_8334936087214424064_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_eui2=AeHN3hghDCWeYzHFftLYGodygB5PpOp6yaTe5Yz6oIAFhEZ9LbPErm0QuWUuu8-U-0M-U0zU2842_Gi6qX-yyEuyN1gfBvFxt6G-zw2U2Hy0hA&_nc_oc=AQnE2wKd0lBhqCkAl42kULJVn4ZDW0-E3o3diQk5_5HRQhUb02V3WjzcNBCFCyjPX7Y&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-1.fna&oh=489bbd92aed147ba68dc90c9fce1f8b2&oe=5DB3D03D

    1. Wow! Great photo! If you have any more be sure to include them in the comments of the saturday entry!

  68. 8:27 AM and Logan sits at 90 degrees already. Not sure I have ever seen that before.
    Norwood and Bedford at 88.

        1. The closest wunder station to me is in whitinsville. It reads 93. On the other side of me in Sutton the wunder says 81. I have always thought that station runs low so tend to discount. Others range 84-86

          Daughters and my cars both read 86. And my history of keeping track tells me my station runs 2ish degrees high in the morning to afternoon sun.

    2. Maybe you haven’t, and wouldn’t now if the thermo was right. 😉

      It’s been 90 by 9AM a few times.

      1. Either way, it’s pretty damn hot. 🙂

        Mine is reading 88 as the sun is not on it yet, so I believe it
        to be correct. Once the sun hits it, it runs 2 or 3 degrees high
        (even though it is designed to be accurate in the sun. Yeah sure!)

        The dew point sensor is wacked out. At night it seems to be spot on, but during the day it runs very high and I don’t know why.
        It used to be just fine.

        fwiw it’s reading 79 for a dew point which is 4-6 degrees too high.

  69. 9Am and Logand and Norwood are sitting at 90 while Bedord is at 88.

    My thermometer just dropped a degree to 87, so it is still correct. While start reading
    too high soon.

    2. The radar picks up everything in clear air mode when we have air like this. Basically just higher humidity can create echoes in this mode.

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