Tuesday Forecast

158 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
In mid to late November we talked about a pattern that could potentially put down widespread general snowfall in much of southeastern New England to start December, and that has indeed taken place, or is taking place now, and we won’t be done with the need to watch for additional systems that are able to produce accumulating snow for some time yet. I don’t think that means we’re on our way to astronomical December snow totals for the entire region, but to say the pattern is going to completely shut down in terms of snow production would probably be a meteorological mistake. So our current system is behaving about as was expected late yesterday, with our final snow burst, somewhat variable, occurring this early morning and set to taper off from west to east during the course of the morning, with final flakes having ended an hour either side of noon for much of the region but possibly lingering until 1 or 2 this afternoon for eastern coastal zones. And then we say goodbye to that 3-day event. What’s next? A gusty breeze and chilly December air for the remainder of today and tonight behind departing low pressure, and then a weaker disturbance crosses the region late Wednesday and Thursday, this one only having the ability to produce a few snow showers. But the one behind that concerns me a little more as it will have a bit more moisture and a better chance to get organized, not into a big storm, but a low pressure area that may pass just south of the region during Friday and Friday evening, with enough moisture and cold air combination to threaten an accumulating snowfall for a good portion of the region. At this point it doesn’t look like a big storm, but it’s worth watching for impactful snowfall nonetheless. By Saturday we’re back to wind and cold, so any snow that has fallen or will fall, between lack of a warm-up and low sun angle, won’t be in a hurry to disappear.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with snow, accumulating an additional 1-3 inches interior and 3-5 inches closer to the eastern coastal areas with above 5 inches possible on parts of Cape Ann and Cape Cod, before tapering off west to east and ending midday through early afternoon. Breaking clouds later, with possible sun before sunset. Highs 31-38. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow likely with some accumulation possible. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers or snow squalls possible. Lows 18-25. Wind variable becoming NW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
High pressure dominates with dry weather December 8 then slides off to the east with a brief warm-up December 9-10, with a couple periods of rain showers possible during that time. Cold front passes and brings windy/cold weather back on December 11 before low pressure approaches later December 12 with a precipitation (probably snow) threat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Precipitation threat to start this period followed by mostly dry weather mid period and a few snow showers later in the period. Temperatures variable, not too far from normal.

158 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. It is . Just an exceptional amount of stuff to do before I even can add the weather to that list. 😉

      Cleanup from last week. Helping mom. Appointments. Work. Etc. Fun stuff! It continues most of this week before settling finally.

  2. Good morning! Well we added on another 7” from last night and add that to the 9” we received Sunday night. I would say a 16” storm is a nice way to start meteorological winter! I think maybe one more inch around here before it pulls away.

    1. Awesome.
      In comparison, I picked up 2.5 yesterday and since perhaps another 2 inches
      or so for a whopping 4.5 inches. But, hey, For Early December I’ll take it. 🙂

    2. Yikes that’s considerably more than here. Looks like 4 last night. I suspect compressed since I couldn’t measure and clear.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Took til perhaps 4-5 am to begin to accumulate in far eastern Marshfield. Fell asleep and awoke to 1.25 – 1.5 inches of wet, pasty snow. It’s snowing moderately now.

    My guess is it ramps up to 3-4 inches on the ground if I were to drive a mile or 2 west.

  4. JPD by the end of the day I think you’ll have something to smile about. It’s your turn today. I know my boys were happy to have their thanksgiving break extended by two extra days off, and wouldn’t you know they have a half day tomorrow that was previously scheduled in our school district.

  5. I read your forecast and ran to the models.

    This Friday event looks interesting. Wonder if this increases in projection as the next 72 hrs proceed.

    1. Something else to watch. Gotta lover it.
      6Z GFS delivers a general 1-3 inches, but it is a ways off, so we shall see.

  8. Thank you TK! About 4 inches in Halifax when I left for work. Most of our branches will have a 1-hour delayed opening with the exception of the Cape.

  9. There’s quite an enhanced area about to come onto Cape Ann.

    Could be Boston and Marshfield bound. Have to see if it maintains intensity in its southwestward travels.

  10. Thanks TK.

    I am seeing around 3 inches so far since last night here and more to come. Bet we get close to 6/8 when all said and done. Those bands mean business.

    1. I don’t know about that much. Sure hope so.
      Watching Boston, Portland and NYC radars for any changes in banding.
      Getting solid light snow to occasionally moderate. That will accumulate 1/2
      to 1 inch per hour. We have 4-6 hours left, so that’s another 2-4,3-5 inches or so.
      We shall see.

  11. Mark, when all is said and done, can you please post snow totals for each of
    the 3 days so I can update the spreadsheet?
    Assuming you still would like me to do that?
    Thanks

        1. Yup, and that band out to the west near the back edge is pretty good too. That western most bands are always underplayed by the models.

  13. Tom – to answer you question above about the roads. They were quite slick and snow covered when I drove to the office a little after 6:00. There wasn’t much traffic at that time and I only saw one or two plows.

  15. Peeked at the Euro re : Friday.

    500 mb : northern Canada polar vortex, modest western US ridge …. fast NW flow across south-central Canada in which a 500 mb disturbance heads southeastward towards New England.

    Let’s see if this feature projects to deepen more on future model runs and if it digs further south …….

  16. I made it in to work ok and on time. The MBTA bus system seems to be running ok but somewhat behind schedule by a little. Walking not all that bad either as long as you take your time. It’s not really that bad out there considering.

        1. I will, Philip, thanks. I might start Christmas decorating. Not sure I wanted a day off after a five-day break, but I have no control over it. I probably won’t be as happy come June 18!!! 🙂

    3. I am impressed with all of the school systems and how they have handled the cancellations. Sutton is out again today. Long Thanksgiving break this year and kids are all loving it.

  19. 2019-2020 winter snow predictions. I put on contest page also so it doesn’t get lost. Please let me know if I recorded yours incorrectly.

    Also, does anyone want to add in Mark’s? Please put on contest page if you do

    https://imgur.com/a/4ksBPza

        1. Long few days, I’m sure. With the treatment and bit of solar radiation through the clouds, perhaps on the darker surfaces facing south.

  21. As exciting as this early December storm has been, it pales in comparison to the December 5-7, 2003 storm. That storm was the second greatest snowfall in Taunton’s history (second to the Blizzard of 1978) with 25.9″. Providence measured 17.0″ and Boston 16.9″. Not sure what happened in Connecticut as my records are only for Taunton (my hometown) and Eastern Massachusetts.

    Taunton also had 15.0″ snows in December 5-6, 1981.

  22. Two hours ago, we had 17″ in Lunenburg. It has been snowing hard since then, so we must be at about 20″ now. I am glad that there was that long break yesterday to remove the first half of it!

  23. Heavy snow in eastern Marshfield.

    3.5 inches of cement here. Reading some Facebook posts, might be closer to 6″ on western side of town.

  24. Very impressed with the snow overnight and the aerial coverage of it! It was snowing 1″/45min for several hours here in Coventry CT. I think we are finally done.

    We received a total of 9.3″ (2.8″ from Part 1 and 6.5″ from Part 2)

    Coventry Schools are closed today, yesterday they had a 2 hour delay.

    1. Mark, can you break that down for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday the best
      you can for the spreadsheet. Estimate if necessary.

      1. Let me go back and check my spotter reports on the previous versions of the NWS public info statements….

          1. Right. I am the NWS spotter for Coventry so was just looking back at my reports on each of the PI statements.

        2. That didn’t help. they didn’t update it between 10PM and 5AM although I reported several times in between. That said the vast majority of what fell last night fell after midnight. I know I only had about an inch new as of 10:30PM and it only spritzed till about 1AM.

          Go with:

          2.8″ Sunday
          1.0″ Monday
          5.5″ Tuesday

  27. Snow totals from the NWS Boston as of a few hours ago:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    I am impressed! An overachiever in many places. Some two foot totals coming in from northern Hampshire and Worcester Counties and these aren’t even the final numbers.

    Still waiting on the final number from BDL but the 13.7″ as of midnight already broke the all-time record for the largest December storm. They were ripping at 2″/hour under that band last night.

  29. I have been watching that feature for late week on the GFS the past few days as well. GFS has it taking the perfect track south of us on Friday but it is a fast mover so cant see it dropping more than 1-3″ at most.

    After a brief warmup and rain event early next week, both the Euro and CMC have another snow threat around 12/11-12/12.

    Sun coming out here now….

  30. Thanks TK
    7 inches last night 2 inches round one 9 inches total which is the same amount of snow I had with the first storm last year.
    With all this snow we set a record at BDL for biggest snowfall so early in the season The previous was 12.3 from the 2011 October Nor’easter. From Ryan Hanrahan
    16.3″ at BDL is the biggest snowstorm on record so early in the season and it is the biggest storm at BDL since February 2017. Remarkable totals with some “fluff factor” overnight.

  31. From NWS Albany
    Official storm-total snowfall from Albany International Airport Dec 1-3, 2019 is 22.6 inches. This marks the 8th biggest snowstorm of ALL-TIME, and the 4th biggest December snowfall on record at ALB. This is also the most snow in one storm since the March 13-14, 1993 Superstorm.

  32. 8 inches in Westwood. Ending shortly as dry air invades the growth zone. Nice little storm to kick off winter.

  33. A bizarre, but interesting series of storms. The kitchen sink was thrown at us in SNE: From snow to mix to rain to mix to snow. Just outside of New England’s territory, Albany’s snow total is particularly impressive. Boston’s not so much. But, it does look pretty. I don’t think Nantucket got any snow at all (just a boatload of rain and mix), except of the non-accumulating kind.

    1. if a little tongue of southern moisture does not get involved with that it still has a lot of energy with it to produce good snow showers and squalls I believe. But I think the timing on that is more Friday than Saturday.

    2. Nice Vicki!

      Layer of cement on the bottom and fluff on the top here. This snow cover isn’t fully melting anytime soon….at least until early next week.

      1. And we may never find the spotlights for the Christmas decorations and the one extension cord that somehow was separated from the light string on a large pine.

  39. Just cleaned up and measured.

    4.0 inches on the level of which about 1/2 fell before midnight.

    So the 3 day total looks like this for My house:

    Sunday 12/1: 2.5 inches
    Monday 12/2 0.5 inches
    Tuesday 12/3 3.5 inches
    ————-
    Total: 6.0 inches

    Does anyone have the Logan totals?
    I know it was 1.2 for Sunday, then I saw a 2.5 but I don’t know what period that was???

  44. The latest NWS report has Lunenburg at 25.1″. We just missed the top spot to Townsend by 0.1″!

    The sun is starting to show through now – just beautiful.

  45. Probably going to lower expectations for mild air the beginning of next week. A lot of the area has refrigerant upon the ground now which will modify the regional climate.

  46. Wachusett has 25″ and counting. Terrific for them…

    Thank you to all of you for comments and links throughout the duration of this system.

    Back to shoveling.

  50. For today, anyway, Logan may come in a bit higher than me them being 6 miles close to the snow bands.

    With final band, I had to up my total to 4.25. 🙂

  51. Snow still coming down in Boston. An unusual over achiever. Original forecasts had it ending two hours ago. Wow!

  54. 12z EURO had a 1-3 inch snowfall for SNE. This looks like a progressive system and won’t slow down and really develop to give us another good dumping of snow.

  56. Briefly on the Patriots:

    Anyone (myself included, btw) who buries the Patriots does that at his or her own peril. Tom Brady is the most competitive and durable athlete this region has ever known. While his skills may be diminishing he and the Patriots aren’t done. I believe that Brady and Belichick have more key wins up their sleeves. Enough to win a Superbowl? We’ll see. But, it’s premature to count them out against anybody. Yes, even the vaunted Ravens.

    This morning, Brady quoted from Richard Nixon (a very intelligent but deeply flawed president): “A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits.”

    1. I don’t think Tom’s skills are that diminished it’s more this revolving door receiving corps that he is trying to gel with and it’s not working until later in games. But regarding the Ravens: I’m glad they got a good strong dose of them during the regular season. It gives me a bit more confidence that they will have a much stronger gameplan.

  58. Terry Eliasen
    @TerryWBZ

    New potential snow leader…North Ashburnham: 29.0″! I say potential because SKYWARN says it is “under review”…guess they are going under the hood and checking the replay?

    1. Yeah, they’re bringing out the chains to measure. The spotter went for it, but might not have made it, in which case Peru will take over on downs.

  61. 7 inches during part 1 and 8.5″ during part two for 15.5″ total in North Reading…..Based on the sun angle and pattern, I am feeling pretty good about this snow sticking around through Christmas

  63. Last band produced a bunch of fluff, bringing my today total to 4.75, today and yesterday total to 5.25 and if we add Sunday to it, then 7.75.

    I know I am under Logan this time around, but looking at the bands today, I can see why. Logan was closer to the off shore storm. Doesn’t happen very often. 🙂

    1. One of the only things I enjoy about wet snow is how it sticks to the tree branches. So picturesque.

  66. Logan came in at 7.1”…beyond impressive!

    That is already only 2 inches from December average snowfall (9.0”).

    1. Nice. Love Cohasset. My oldest was married in the Congregational church there with a reception at Atlantica

  71. Posted this on the other page but here are my predictions
    Logan 40
    JP Dave’s 60
    Mark 70

    Sorry for the lateness on my predictions, I been bogged down with Finals. 2 down 1 left (sadly its Math) , Two X-Mas parties one Thursday night and again Friday and then Going home for the break Saturday. Can not wait. 🙂 Some snow on the ground for a welcome home is gonna be nice. I honestly miss it up in New England but its been to be able to continue to be on this blog, keeping connections with you all.

      1. Thanks I need all the luck I can for my stats final tomorrow. Luckily there is a take home part of the exam so it balances out. The take home part was the only way most of us did not fail at mid-terms.

  72. So Logan is off to a snowy start, compared to average, for the season, especially for so early in the season. This is one of their snowiest as of this date. What does that mean for the winter? The only fuzzy correlation I have been able to pull out of the data is that early season big snows tend to be one of the biggest if not often the biggest of the entire season. It would not surprise me, just based on the size of this event overall, if we have just experienced what will be the largest snowstorm of the snow season 2019-2020.

    Interesting to note that Boston’s top 5 snow winters all started more slowly than this. Channel 5 gave this information on their noon news today. It shows Boston’s top 5 snow winters and how much snow Logan had as of December 3 each of those years…

    #1: As of December 3, 2.6 inches. Season total, 110.6 inches.
    #2 As of December 3, 4.4 inches. Season total, 107.6 inches.
    #3 As of December 3, 0.0 inches. Season total, 96.3 inches.
    #4 As of December 3, 1.1 inches. Season total, 89.2 inches.
    #5 As of December 3, 3.9 inches. Season total, 86.6 inches.

  73. From a colleague, former coworker, and well-respected meteorologist, on his social media earlier…

    “It has been completely saturated and either raining or snowing at Logan Airport for three days now and they have consistently maintained a 5F temperature/dewpoint spread that entire time. Doesn’t this inherently tell you something is wrong with the sensors there? C’mon NWS. Let’s get this fixed. We’re screwing with the record books here! (This is not new BTW, been going on for quite some time.)”

    Another colleague commented about having talked to the NWS about sensors being wrong and was given several excuses about why they are not fixed. I think it would be easier to just fix them than to blow hot air (pun intended).

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