DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

A thick plume of Canadian wildfire smoke continues today but the trend will be to thin from northeast to southwest starting today and continuing Wednesday, so that the smoke should be much thinner beyond midweek. There will be a fair amount of high cloudiness in the sky too today into Wednesday, which will also filter the sun each day. Otherwise, high pressure dominates our weather during the next 5 days. Only the remains of a weak frontal boundary and a little instability / orographic lift can pop a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in the hilly terrain of southwestern NH and central MA Wednesday afternoon, otherwise we’re basically free of rain threats for this forecast period. Initially, temperatures are held back a bit by the center of high pressure being to our north, but with time, it sinks southward and a warm-up becomes more noticeable.

TODAY: Sun filtered to dimmed by high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, cooler coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of high clouds and additional smoke aloft. Patchy ground fog late. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun with high clouds but smoke aloft thins out. Developing convective clouds afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the hills of southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 76-83, cooler coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog / low clouds. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60+. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point near 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

High pressure east of New England allows a more established but weak southerly air flow, while low pressure well to the south should stay there. This pattern allows for warm to hot weather with a slightly increased chance of pop-up showers and thunderstorms, which can be enhanced if a disturbance makes it our way from the west (may happen later period).

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

No significant changes to the pattern establishing in the previous period. Overall pattern features high pressure off the East coast, promoting warmer, more humid weather with a slightly increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with more moisture moving up from the south, potentially enhanced by any disturbances moving through from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

First, a little on current weather at sunrise this Monday morning. Across the WHW forecast area, the cool spot is Martha’s Vineyard at 46 – the only reporting station in the region under 50. The next-coolest is New Bedford at 52. Everywhere else it ranges from 53 to about 60. Why is this the case? High pressure is centered right over the South Coast region, with calm wind. The further north you go, you are further away from the calm center, and there is a light southwesterly wind keeping the air more mixed, and the temperature up a little compared to the calm locations. This is a short-lived but fascinating fair weather phenomenon to start your week. Canadian wildfire smoke is again a significant player in our current and upcoming weather, with a significant smoke plume aloft currently, and set to last for a couple more days, though showing a gradual thinning trend. Today, there will be some pockets of smoke closer to or at the surface too, reducing horizontal visibility and impacting air quality. Later this week, the plume will depart, but we may not be done with such smoke this summer. Meanwhile, our weather will be dominated by high pressure all week – first, one to the south which makes today the warmest day of the week, and second, a new high from Canada which provides a slight cool-down toward midweek, before that one itself sinks more to the south and east overhead then south of here, allowing a slight warm-up to return later in the week. Other than a few pop up showers or thunderstorms potentially occurring in the hills of southwestern NH and central MA Wednesday afternoon, we are looking at dry weather through the next 5 days. Elsewhere, the tropics are a little more active, but outside the MDR. TS Dexter formed last night from an old non-tropical low off the US Southeast Coast, but will move harmlessly out to sea. A second system is being watched for development later this week, but for the time being is no immediate threat or player in our weather.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 82-89, except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Star and moon dimming smoke aloft in an otherwise cloud-free sky. Valley, swamp, and bog fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun but some fair-weather clouds popping up too. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Additional smoke aloft. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NE to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Smoke aloft thins gradually from east to west. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon in the hills of southwestern NH and central MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

High pressure shifts into the western Atlantic and a more southerly air flow gradually develops. Fair weather should hold through the August 9-10 weekend. A better chance at the development of some showers and thunderstorms beginning early next week. Humidity and heat gradually increases, but not to extreme levels.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

Overall pattern features high pressure off the East coast, promoting warmer, more humid weather with a slightly increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with more moisture moving up from the south, potentially enhanced by any disturbances moving through from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

Easy Sunday update today – basically no changes in yesterday’s update, save for one minor tweak for midweek. High pressure remains dominant through this period, with one frontal boundary to watch sinking down from the north Wednesday. The only change would be to introduce the chance for an inland pop-up shower or storm chance that day favoring southwestern NH and north central MA. Otherwise it’s fair weather, humidity that remains low for a couple days then gradual increases to moderate, and a slow warming trend through Tuesday, a small cool-down Wednesday, and small warm-up Thursday, with several days cooler at the coast. Additionally, you’ll notice a hazy look to the sky at times the next several days as additional areas of high altitude smoke move through the sky from Canada’s fires.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with weaker coastal sea breezes, may shift to W by late-day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point nearing 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except cooler South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure shifts into the western Atlantic and a more southerly air flow gradually develops. Fair weather is likely the first couple days of this period, before there is a slightly better opportunity for some showers to pop up. Humidity gradually increases, but no major heat is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

Overall pattern features high pressure off the East coast, promoting warmer, more humid weather with a slightly increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with more moisture moving up from the south, potentially enhanced by any disturbances moving through from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

High pressure will dominate our weather into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be determined by wind direction, related to the position of of the high pressure center, which will be generally overhead today, with a cool morning and a cooler coast than inland region during the afternoon. Sunday and Monday will trend warmer as the high center sinks southward. Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll have a frontal boundary slip down from the north in response to another high pressure area coming from Canada. Isolated shower and thunderstorm later Tuesday and/or Wednesday would most likely occur over the mountains of northern New England with that boundary, north of the WHW forecast area, but the arrival of the air associated with the Canadian high pressure system would take place on a north to northeast wind, meaning that after a warm Tuesday, Wednesday would likely be cooler, especially along the coast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with weaker coastal sea breezes, may shift to W by late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except cooler South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

High pressure shifts into the western Atlantic and a more southerly air flow gradually develops. Fair weather is likely the first few days of this period, before there is a slightly better opportunity for some showers to pop up. Humidity gradually increases, but no major heat is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

Overall pattern features high pressure off the East coast, promoting warmer, more humid weather with a slightly increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with more moisture moving up from the south, potentially enhanced by any disturbances moving through from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

A wave of low pressure that brought significant rainfall to a good swath of southern New England yesterday and early today will depart early today. Wet weather will come to an end this morning and midday from northwest to southeast across the region. As the large cloud canopy associated with the departing low pressure wave starts to clear out from northwest to southeast, we’ll see other clouds pop up due to lingering atmospheric instability, and these can lead to a few spot showers mid afternoon to sunset, although most areas will not see any. It will be a cool day, and while it is technically humid to start, it will dry out with lowering dew points. After this, high pressure builds in for the weekend and sinks to the south and east early next week, providing several days of fair weather, starting out cooler than average Saturday, warming to seasonable Sunday and a little warmer than average early next week – very nice summer weather!

TODAY: Cloudy start with rain diminishing / ending northwest to southeast. Clearing trend starts mid morning also northwest to southeast, however pop-up clouds may produce isolated showers mid afternoon until sunset. Highs 67-74. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind E shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Fog patches form over some lower elevation locations. Lows 55-62, mildest urban centers. Dew point in 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point sub-60. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except cooler South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

High pressure shifts into the western Atlantic and a more southerly air flow gradually develops. Fair weather is likely the first few days of this period, before there is a slightly better opportunity for some showers to pop up. Humidity gradually increases, but no major heat is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

High pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast into mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

On this final day of July, with a frontal boundary having dropped through the region overnight and becoming quasi-stationary near the South Coast, a wave of low pressure will develop and start moving along the front. This will bring a widespread rainfall to the region, developing / evolving during the day and peaking in coverage and intensity this evening and tonight. Rainfall may be heavy enough to lead to some areas of flooding, especially on roadways, so use caution if traveling. During Friday, a drying trend will take place from northwest to southeast as the low pressure wave moves by and away, and clearing will follow later Friday through Friday night. This sets up a fabulous weekend as high pressure builds in with fair weather, low humidity, and generally seasonably temperatures, though a bit cooler Saturday than Sunday. Fair weather continues and a warm-up takes place early next week as high pressure sinks slightly southward.

TODAY: Partly sunny for a while in some locations, then becoming cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers develop morning-midday, becoming more numerous to eventually widespread afternoon-evening. Embedded downpours possible with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers gradually diminishing northwest to southeast, followed by breaking clouds / partial clearing with similar trend. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind E backing to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point sub-60. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

High pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

High pressure offshore provides one more day of heat for much of the region, but a weak wind field also will allow for more coastal sea breezes to develop, taking the edge off the heat for those locations. A west to northwest wind helped lower the dew point yesterday from around 70 to the middle 60s, in general, and while this is still humid, it sits below the oppressive category, and will generally hang out in the 60s through today. There are still patches of Canadian wildfire smoke working their way through in a northwesterly air flow aloft, so the sky will have a hazy look. While a cold front approaches, the instability and triggering mechanisms are limited, and it appears that the greatest chance for a few storms to fire up will be south of I-90, particularly southern CT, southern RI, and the MA South Coast west of the Cape Cod Canal, in the 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. time frame. Any storms that do develop here can produce brief torrential rain, small hail, and strong wind gusts, as well as cloud-to-ground lightning. If you have outdoor plans, be on the look-out should a storm develop near or approach your area. The storm threat ends by sunset and tonight will be a quiet, mild, humid night as the front settles through. The boundary then comes to a stop near the South Coast on Thursday, and sets up a situation where a wave of low pressure will keep our weather unsettled Thursday into Friday, first with some showers initiating somewhere in our region, then growing in coverage to a fairly widespread rainfall by Thursday evening into Friday early morning, before diminishing and pulling out of the region from northwest to southeast during the day on Friday. Significantly cooler air will arrive during this time, although it will remain relatively humid until the rain exits later Friday, after which drier air arrives. Clearing Friday night will then lead to a fabulous weekend as high pressure builds in, with seasonable temperatures and low humidity.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates. Clouds pop up this afternoon especially south of I-90 with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs 88-95, except 80-87 many coastal locations. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers develop morning-midday, becoming more numerous to eventually widespread afternoon-evening. Embedded downpours possible with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers gradually diminishing northwest to southeast, followed by breaking clouds / partial clearing with similar trend. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind E backing to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point sub-60. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure focus shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Heat and humidity dominate today (peak day) into tomorrow (final day) before a change to cooler weather, along with some additional rain, before a drying trend. That’s the one-line synopsis of the next 5 days. Here are the details… You wouldn’t know it, but what used to be a cold front pushed through our region early this morning. But this front is far from its source region with a very modified air mass behind it. The only change is to shift the wind from predominantly southwest to more of a west northwest direction, and take the dew point down up to a few degrees. Hardly noticeable just walking out the door, but somewhat significant to today’s forecast. The west northwest wind will likely be strong enough to prevent any coastal sea breezes, except being a direct sea breeze where it comes across water before reaching land again (Outer Cape Cod, for example). While places in examples like that will be modified cooler, a west northwest wind is one of the hotter summer winds for our region, and that will be the case today, with the non-modified areas, a vast majority of our region, exceeding 90 for high temps. And despite the tiny dew point decline, it will still be quite humid as they even recover that mini-loss, if not during the day today, by sometime this evening. In short, a hot day. I am now reluctant to call for any isolated showers and thunderstorms today as it looks like they just don’t have the trigger to fire up. I would not be totally surprised if one did, but I think the chance is so remote that other than this discussion they don’t get included in the detailed forecast that follows it. Next up, Wednesday. The outlook for this day is a little different than I had a few days ago, when I thought the set-up and timing of things would be slightly different. It’s going to be another hot and humid day, and with the approach of a cold front we will have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms. I expect these to be mostly from mid afternoon into the evening, and while I am not expecting widespread coverage, there can be individual storms or small storm clusters that can be quite strong, possibly severe (primary threat being straight line wind gusts). Keep an eye out for those, also knowing that some places will end up seeing little or nothing. Places that do get hit can be impacted significantly, at least for a brief time. Temperatures are a little tricky. I think upper 80s to middle 90s is a safe bet for high temps in most of the region, with typically cooler conditions for the South Coast / Cape Cod with a “mostly” southwesterly air flow. However, the air flow at the surface is not going to be that strong, and this does allow for the possibility of the wind becoming more south to southeast along MA’s eastern coast, including Boston, which could hold the maximums down a little in those locations. The cold front moves through in the evening but doesn’t get far. It comes to a stop just to our south and southeast early Thursday, and provides a running board for a wave of low pressure set to move along it later Thursday through early Friday, producing a swath of rainfall here. Reliable guidance has been starting to paint this as a moderate to heavy rainfall event for at least a portion of the region – fine tuning to come still. Current expected timing for most rain is later Thursday to early Friday. Later Friday into Saturday, drier and cooler weather is expected.

TODAY: Clouds mainly I-90 southward early depart, otherwise sunshine. Highs 90-97 except 80s some coastal areas and some 70s Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point declines slightly from near 70 to middle 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Highs 88-95, however cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with a potential SE shift in eastern coastal areas. Wind can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers early, then a slow clearing trend. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point not far from 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure focus shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Temperature and dew point had a meeting in many areas overnight. The result: fog. If you are enshrouded in your area early this morning, it won’t last too long, but it can be dense in some locations, limiting visibility. Otherwise, high pressure moves offshore today and anchors itself there into Wednesday. This results in a bout of hotter, humid weather for our region. A cold front approaches later Wednesday. While today will have no showers and storms, tomorrow a few air mass storms could pop up during the afternoon, and Wednesday we’ll have to watch for front-triggered showers and storms afternoon and evening. Thursday and Friday are set feature a cooling trend, but the question to be answered at this point is whether we see mostly dry weather, or additional unsettled weather. The front moving through late Wednesday is likely to come to a halt just to our south by early Thursday, and a wave of low pressure is likely to ride along it. The exact position of the front, timing and strength of the wave will determine how much additional cloud cover and wet weather end up occurring Thursday and/or Friday. My best shot at this prognostication sits below in the detailed forecast, but will likely need to be tweaked and fine-tuned as this week goes on.

TODAY: Foggy areas early to mid morning, otherwise hazy sun with smoke aloft. Highs 85-92, however cooler in some coastal areas, especially Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. High altitude smoke diminishes / patchy fog develops. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon, mainly west of I-95. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered to clustered afternoon / evening showers / thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers early, then a slow clearing trend. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications are that high pressure takes over and remains in control with dry weather for this 5-day stretch, which starts out slightly cooler than average then develops a slow warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Fair weather holds early in the period. A couple disturbances from the west bring shower and thunderstorm chances by mid to late period. Generally seasonably warm temperatures are expected for this stretch of time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

A low pressure area passing to our north sends a warm front through the region this morning and a cold front through later today, but overall it’s just an unsettled day. The more widespread showers move west to east through the region this morning – mostly light to moderate, but there could be an embedded heavier one even with some thunder. Another passing shower or thunderstorm is possible any time after this initial batch, but most of that will be concentrated with the cold front moving through later in the day. So, while there are rain-free times, be prepared for showery weather at times. Not much change to the remainder of the forecast. Monday’s a very warm, humid day as high pressure builds in. There’s not much dry air behind today’s system, in contrast to the nice air mass we had yesterday behind Friday’s cold front. The heat builds more on Tuesday, and a weak cold front may trigger a late-day shower or thunderstorm, but activity looks limited due to “lack of decent parameters”. Fair, warm, slightly less humid weather will be here Wednesday as another high pressure system controls things, before the next disturbance brings unsettled weather back for Thursday. Canadian wildfire smoke thins today, not that you’ll notice much with abundant cloud cover much of the time, but makes a come-back Monday before easing toward midweek.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely west to east morning-midday. Embedded thunder is possible, especially southwest of Boston . Clouds can break for sun but an additional shower or thunderstorm possible rest of day. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Clearing but patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers / thunderstorms possible, mainly western areas. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Shower chance overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure dominates with a dry stretch of weather the first several days of August, starting out cooler than average followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Seasonable weather, limited wet weather chances is the general idea, but we will have to keep an eye on a few potential things to bring some unsettled weather to track. Long way out / long time to check them out.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Today is a day that will “look” hot and humid, because of a veil of Canadian wildfire smoke that is moving northwest to southeast across our sky in the upper level wind flow. But looks can be deceiving, because while it will be a warm day, it won’t be nearly as hot as yesterday, and will be much less humid, as a Canadian air mass with much lower dew points has arrived behind a cold front. That was the front that triggered thunderstorms for many areas, especially southeastern sections, during yesterday afternoon. High pressure is now in control and will provide our nice day, albeit with smoke-filtered sunshine. At least there is no rain threat, and this makes 4 consecutive Saturdays without a drop of rain in Boston (5 out of 6) – how come the mainstream media isn’t talking about that streak?! 😉 That said, the area is not going to have a completely dry Sunday, as a quick-moving disturbance will be delivering a batch of showers from west to east Sunday morning and midday. Although it moves out quickly enough that a few to several hours of the afternoon / evening may end up being fairly decent with breaking clouds and just a chance of an additional passing shower. High pressure moves in Monday with fair, warm, humid weather, then slides offshore with a shot of heat and humidity for Tuesday. Another wildfire smoke plume is likely to filter the sunshine again on Monday. A trough / frontal system approach late Tuesday with a thunderstorm threat, but timing may be later evening / night, limiting the thunderstorm chances. Wednesday, another high builds in with fair, warm, less humid weather.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine / high clouds also stream in midday on. Highs 78-85, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Smoke exits / clouds increase. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely west to east morning-midday. Clouds can break for sun but an additional shower possible rest of day. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Clearing but patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers / thunderstorms possible, mainly western areas. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Eyeing a disturbance for a shower/thunderstorm chance some time July 31. High pressure brings fair weather for the first several days of August, starting with a shot of cooler air then followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures but also mostly dry weather with a continued dominant northwesterly air flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

The biggest forecast focus in the short term is today’s heat and thunderstorm threat. The set-up is the classic high pressure offshore / cold front approaching and moving in from the northwest. No records are likely to fall in the heat department today but it’ll be pretty hot nonetheless, with high humidity, but not unlimited sun as already high and mid level clouds associated with the upper trough driving the frontal system into our region are already moving in as I write this. So expect some sun limitation from those. What we really need to watch for are developing cumulus / cumulonimbus clouds which will be a sign of the thunderstorms. Initially, I think a few isolated storms will pop in southern NH and perhaps north central MA, with eventually these increasing in number while the area moves southeastward, eventually forming a broken to solid line as it moves through the I-95 / I-90 belt and southeastward from there. The area with the best chance for the greatest coverage is southeast of the I-95 / I-90 region. Regardless, any storm can be strong to severe, so keep a close eye on the sky / radar especially if you have outdoor plans. I’m eyeing the possibility of a few more showers and storms, maybe even a small line, that can develop later in the afternoon and impact parts of southeastern NH and northeastern MA, which has been indicated by some reliable short range guidance. By tonight, the front sweeps through and the threat ends. High pressure builds in for Saturday which will be quite a nice day, but you’ll already notice some high clouds streaming across the sky during the day ahead of the next disturbance, which is set to bring more cloudiness back along with the chance for showers and thunderstorms at some point Sunday. Guidance varies on the timing of the shower / storm threat from this, but I’m leaning toward a dry morning and afternoon / evening unsettled weather. I’ll tweak and detail this on my weekend blog posts. Early next week, fair weather returns along with some July heat to go along with it as there’s no real delivery of Canadian air behind Sunday’s system. Later Tuesday, the next disturbance / front may be close enough to trigger late-day showers and storms to the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop north and west of Boston 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. time window, increasing in coverage while moving through Metro Boston, central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI mid through late afternoon. Additional showers / storms possible southeastern NH and northeastern MA late-day. Any thunderstorms can produce frequent lightning, small hail, and strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls below 65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds with a chance of afternoon showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, but turning cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind NW up to 10 MPH except developing coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers / thunderstorms possible, mainly western areas. Highs 85-92. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Overall pattern is dry with a slight cooling trend with dominant northwesterly flow from Canada. Disturbance bringing shower threat is most likely to pass by sometime July 31.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures but also mostly dry weather with a continued dominant northwesterly air flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

Offshore high pressure increases the heat and humidity today, but with fair weather. Heat and humidity peaks on Friday but with the addition of a shower and thunderstorm chance from a cold front moving into and through the region from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. This breaks the heat and lowers the humidity and sets up a stellar summer Saturday as high pressure moves in. But systems moving right along mean that we’ll head right back to an unsettled weather threat Sunday as a disturbance and frontal system move in from the west. Currently, it looks like a dry morning followed by a showery afternoon, and I will have to fine-tune timing, coverage, and duration for that system still. Behind that, another high builds in with fair weather for next Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive during the afternoon with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lingering showers / thunderstorms possible south of I-90 early, otherwise clearing. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls below 65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point near 60. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds with a chance of afternoon showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A general northwesterly air flow will send a couple disturbances / fronts through with limited shower and thunderstorm chances during a stretch of mostly fair weather. Most likely days for non-zero t-storm chances are July 29 and 31. Temperatures variable, averaging not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Indications continue for large scale northwest flow – some up and down temps but nothing extreme, and mainly dry with a couple passing shower / t-storm chances from disturbances moving along the upper flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

An area of high pressure will slide offshore today and sit for a few days, turning up the heat and humidity as we head toward the end of the week. This morning, being rather cool, calm, and still dry, will present quite a contrast from just over 48 hours from now when we’ll be on the day of peak heat with high temps in the 90s for most areas with dew points nearing 70. That rather brief heat spike will be cut back this coming weekend though. We’ll have a cold front cross the region Friday late day / evening with a thunderstorm threat, and high pressure settle in enough to provide fair weather for Saturday. But a disturbance from the west may bring unsettled weather back to the region at some point on Sunday. Some guidance has this further south and not much of an impact here, but I’ll monitor that.

TODAY: Mostly sunny – high cloud patches passing by during this morning and pop-up fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive later in the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but can be strong and gusty near any storms.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 83-90, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point upper 60s. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A general northwesterly air flow will send a couple disturbances / fronts through with limited shower and thunderstorm chances during a stretch of mostly fair weather. Temperatures variable, averaging not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications continue for large scale northwest flow – some up and down temps but nothing extreme, and mainly dry with a couple passing shower / t-storm chances from disturbances moving along the upper flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

High pressure sits overhead today, providing a very pleasant summer day. The high then slides offshore Wednesday and anchors for a while into late week, initiating a trend to warm then hot weather with more humidity Wednesday through Friday. Later Friday, a cold front approaches. The timing of this front will determine timing, coverage, and to some degree intensity of thunderstorm activity. Afternoon to early evening arrival would mean greater potential, while later evening arrival would lessen the potential. This is something to be fine-tuned over the next few days. Saturday’s weather will be less hot, still humid, and contain the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary slows down and becomes quasi-stationary while losing its identity, so this time I cannot call for a clear-out / dry-out situation. Will keep an eye on that.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog inland low elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point below 50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point rising through 50s to around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive later in the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but can be strong and gusty near any storms.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

A disturbance may bring additional showers and thunderstorms July 27 and/or July 28 with a trend toward mostly fair weather after that with only a brief shower / t-storm chance at some point from a passing disturbance next week. Temperatures somewhat variable but overall more seasonable.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Early August indications are for large scale northwest flow – some up and down temps but nothing extreme, and mainly dry with a couple passing shower / t-storm chances from disturbances moving along the upper flow.