DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

Today’s weather will feature abundant cloud cover between a front that sits to our south and high pressure over Atlantic Canada. The result is a broad but weak onshore (easterly) air flow. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with highs in the 60s and while dew point temps are sub-60, it feels slightly humid as the dp & temperature will not be that far apart. We will see some spotty light showers from mid level clouds as a weak trough moves eastward through the region in a westerly flow aloft, but this will also be battling a bit of dry air trying to move down from that Atlantic Canada, which can thin / break the clouds for a little sun at times. Clouds thicken tonight as the front to the south advances northward as a warm front, and a couple areas of light rainfall may be generated by this process. Tuesday we find ourselves in the warm sector after that front goes by and prior to the arrival of a cold front from the west. An increase in low level moisture in this air mass and a disturbance moving in aloft will trigger showers and possible thunderstorms, a few which can contain downpours, but it will not rain for the entirety of the day – probably under 50% of the time in any given location. As surface low pressure passes to our north, the cold front will move through Tuesday night, putting an end to the shower and thunderstorm threat. If you’ve been following the blog, you’ve seen me mention the “warmer behind the cold front” synoptic set-up for midweek, and that’s exactly what we’ll have. While we have what is technically by definition a continental polar air mass, originating in Canada, arriving behind that cold front, it will be modified by passing over warmed land and also get a further boost from the down slope effect off the hills and mountains to our west. This results in fair, warm weather but lower dew points Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, a front will move through the region from the north and I remain of the meteorological opinion that this process will be quicker and stronger than some guidance indications. This front will bring the threat of some passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to end the work week, but the coverage / intensity will depend on the timing.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – maybe thinning for a bit of sun at times, but also a stray shower or two possible. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog early. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty, shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Current call on June 14-15 weekend: High pressure pressure far enough south from eastern Canada to keep our region rain-free but cooler, though there may be some variable amounts of cloud cover due to high and mid level moisture streaming along west to east just to our south. Watching for the arrival and passage of a trough and low pressure at some point the first half of next week – leaning toward June 17 for the most likely wet day.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats to pass by – timing uncertain. Variable temperatures but averaging fairly close to normal for the period. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

Today we’ll have a better day than yesterday was. Some early morning fog sits in lower elevations and will burn off. The sun will be filtered to dimmed by a mixture of high level clouds and high altitude wildfire smoke – the former coming from the southwest and the latter coming from Canada. At least we can have a day without a rain threat, even if it’s not bright sunshine. A warm front will begin its approach tonight and Monday, increasing our cloud cover at times, but this will be met with drier air being sent out way from a ridge of high pressure in Atlantic Canada. The dry air will do a pretty good job for a while, often thinning and breaking the cloud advance while limiting any rainfall to just patchy and very light, favoring southern areas. Finally, Monday night the clouds will thicken as the warm front receives a reinforcing push northeastward. Its parenting low pressure area will track north of us Tuesday, dragging a cold front toward the region, which then passes through at night. This late Monday night to late Tuesday evening time period is when we see our best opportunity for showers – perhaps a few thunderstorms at some point during the day on Tuesday while we’re in a warm and humid air mass. At midweek, a drier westerly air flow takes over, and as I mentioned yesterday, we warm up behind the cold front due to the action of warmer land to our west and some down sloping of air off hills and mountains to our west warming up the air mass. Look for fair weather to be dominant with high pressure to our south and low pressure in Canada to our north during this midweek time frame, but we will have to watch a frontal boundary to the north by later Thursday in case it moves a little more quickly than currently indicated by guidance…

TODAY: Early to mid morning valley fog patches and some stratus cloud patches drifting across Cape Cod. Otherwise, filtered to dimmed sunshine with high clouds and wildfire smoke aloft, then some increase in clouds later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH followed by coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Abundant clouds but partial sun. A couple brief periods of very light rain possible mainly south of I-90. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

I have a more optimistic outlook currently than many medium range models have. High pressure may be stronger than modeled, keeping the next round of unsettled weather south of our area and keeping our region, after a brief shower threat with a passing front June 13, generally dry heading into and through next weekend, with another trough and low pressure bringing unsettled weather back at the very end of the period. Not super-high confidence on this just yet. This pattern would prevent significant heat and the coast would often be coolest during the daytimes.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

The period may start unsettled and end with a front bringing a shower and thunderstorm threat, with fair and seasonably warm weather in between. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

A quick look back at yesterday: Wind damage from morning thunderstorms parts of north central MA to Merrimack Valley. Flash flooding and pockets of strong wind from slow-moving storms and heavy rain late day / evening central MA into southern NH, but activity largely stayed away from the Boston area as was expected, until much weaker and just as remnant showers. The cold front responsible for that will be moving slowly across our region from northwest to southeast today. With more extensive cloud cover the atmosphere will not be nearly as unstable as it was yesterday. Additionally, a low pressure wave passes offshore to our southeast, putting more marine-stable air into southeastern areas. That low itself may trigger a few showers this morning on Nantucket and perhaps Martha’s Vineyard, but its main rain area will stay over the water. That low actually serves to keep showers from forming and moving in sooner, giving the front a pause. But as the front does move slowly along, it will be the focus for a widespread area of showers. Just enough instability along the leading edge of this will allow for some new development of showers and possible isolated thunderstorms, but for the most part we’re looking at a non-severe event dominated by “just rainfall” messing up some more outdoor plans. Finally, the front starts to accelerate offshore this evening and tonight with drier air arriving, though some lingering low level moisture can result in fog patches. Sunday, a weak area of high pressure moves in with a sun/cloud mix, but we won’t have to worry about any shower activity (yay!). While winds will be light, a general onshore flow will keep the coast coolest. The frontal boundary that moves through will not be that far away as it becomes stationary to our south tomorrow – sound familiar? It should as this pattern has happened several times this spring. A wave of low pressure will be forming on it to our southwest and moving out south of our area on Monday. Initially this will result in more clouds coming back in later Sunday into early Monday, and perhaps some shower activity favoring the South Coast. About half the computer guidance takes this system far enough north for showery Monday, while the other half of the guidance keeps it further south with less impact. I am leaning toward the drier scenario with a narrow but just-strong-enough ridge of high pressure to our northeast holding just enough dry air over our region. This will not be the case Tuesday, however, as a stronger push from a trough and low pressure area from the southwest will bring a warm front through with some rainfall, then a cold front to follow with showers. The cold front pushes offshore as low pressure passes to our north Tuesday night, resulting in improving weather by Wednesday with a drier westerly air flow taking over. Wednesday may be one of those “warmer behind a cold front” days, which are not unusual for this part of the country especially in spring / early summer when you’re replacing a marine-influence warm air mass from the south with a land-warmed air mass from the west behind the front. I feel pretty confident in calling for that scenario even though it’s “day 5”.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Region-wide light fog through mid morning. Patchy thicker fog near South Coast all day. Isolated light showers possible anywhere this morning except mid morning showers more likely Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. Widespread showers and possible leading edge thunderstorms northwest to southeast midday to end of afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Dew point 60+. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW then NW from northwest to southeast late in the day.

TONIGHT: Any early showers near South Coast / Cape Cod ending, otherwise partly cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH followed by coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers south of I-90. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early including a chance of showers south of I-90, then partial sunshine. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. WindE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Dry, warm westerly air flow June 12. Disturbance / frontal system brings a shower chance June 13. High pressure builds in after that with dry weather and seasonable temperatures, coolest coast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Unsettled weather early in the period followed by a more summery feel to the weather pattern, pretty much in time for the official arrival of summer (solstice occurs late at night – 10:54 p.m. June 20).

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

The systems on the weather map today and over the next several days might resemble an array of toys in a toddler’s play area. Lots of stuff in play to influence our sensible weather today, this weekend, and early next week. Avoiding a long descriptive run of words that would tire you out as much as cleaning up after the toddler, here’s as concise a summary as I can muster… Today, we have an approaching cold front still well to the west with a warm and humid air mass in place, a pre-frontal disturbance, and the development of both a South Coast sea breeze and East Coast sea breeze. Initially the disturbance is already causing a cluster of showers / t-storms in north central MA to the NH border. In the very short term (up to 9:00 a.m.) this cluster will initially build heading toward the I-495 belt from near Rt. 2 to southern NH, but should then fade while drifting east. This area will be briefly strong with some hail probable and perhaps some damaging wind gusts. Look for 2 more areas of showers / t-storms to fire off this afternoon – one in a similar region to this morning’s, somewhere north of I-90 and well west of I-95, another triggered by the South Coast sea breeze boundary somewhere near I-90, most likely west of I-95 (watch radar if possible to see this in real-time). The first batch should drift east northeast in response to the disturbance triggering it, while the second batch drifts more to the north in response to the South Coast sea breeze boundary. The East Coast sea breeze boundary may act as a barrier to the storms’ ability to push into or east of the I-95 belt – something else we’ll have to watch once the activity develops. During the peak of today’s convective activity, the most organized storms can produce torrential rain with local flooding, frequent lightning, and isolated damaging wind gusts. With the loss of daytime heating and the washing out of the sea breeze boundaries, we’ll be left with a mainly cloudy evening and overnight with just isolated showers and patchy fog forming. Saturday, the cold front mentioned previously will be moving slowly but more steadily across the region from northwest to southeast. While it will be a little cooler than today it will still be humid and we can see some isolated to scattered showers ahead of it, and then likely a more organized band of showers along it as it traverses the region from about noon to about sunset – not in a great hurry. Part of the reason for this is an offshore low pressure system which initially helps limit the front from being active, and delays its arrival as well. We will see if the front ends up under-producing its potential due to that offshore system – something we see at times. Thunderstorm chances are lower Saturday due to the lack of solar heating and resultant instability in the atmosphere. Drier weather follows the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday, but the front isn’t going that far and tries to make a run back our way later Sunday with at least more clouds and possibly some additional wet weather Sunday night. Currently, I’m optimistic that an area of high pressure will dry us out again for Monday, with just enough push to get the job done. But that won’t last long as the next trough and frontal system comes along from the west on Tuesday, returning clouds and showery weather to the region – details TBD.

TODAY: Most of the sun shines through wildfire smoke in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT early morning, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers and thundrstorms in a cluster north central to interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH early to mid morning, diminishing to showers while drifting to the east. Additional scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas near and north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers morning-midday, then more widespread showers move through northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers early, favoring eastern MA and RI, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix, then mostly cloudy by late-day. Evening shower potential south and west of Boston. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds thin for sun but wildfire smoke aloft potential again. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

A drier westerly air flow returns middle of next week but still a shower chance with a trough passing by later June 11 or June 12. Cautiously optimistic that high pressure will control with a dry weather stretch late next week, but this is not high confidence as there are hints of blocking and some guidance is not so “fair”.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

Indications are for fair weather early and end of period / unsettled later mid period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

Today we will have our first taste of the heat / humidity combo as much of the region away from the South Coast makes a run at 90 with dew point readings in the 60s – not oppressive and high end heat, but early in the season these conditions are more impactful than mid summer due to high sun angle and the “not-used-to-it” effect for many people. So if you are outside today, protect yourself from direct sun when possible and stay hydrated! Lingering smoke from Canadian wildfires will add to the hazy look of the day. I’m looking for dry weather other than the small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly 2 regions: 1) North of I-90 / west of I-95 due to a little help from lifting of air over hilly terrain. 2) South of I-90 close to a sea breeze boundary separating marine air from the hotter air mass over land. While the chance is very low in any one spot, any location that does get one could experience a brief very heavy downpour. Any of this activity will diminish and dissipate this evening and a fair, warm, humid night is on tap. Clouds become more dominant heading into Friday with more substantial moisture heading into the region, and this will likely lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms in what I expect to be up to a couple clusters – the first that may form in the morning to midday, the second sometime in the afternoon to very early evening. Activity Friday will favor areas near and west of I-95, and near to north of I-90 in MA, as well as into southern NH later in the day into evening, based on current expectations. These storms’ main impact will be heavy rain with local flooding, but I cannot rule out a severe storm with isolated wind damage. This activity lifts to the north for a quiet evening on Friday, but as a cold front comes into and slowly across the region Saturday, an additional opportunity for showers exists. I think the thunderstorm threat Saturday is limited to eliminated due to a more stable atmosphere overall. Part of this will be due to a small wave of low pressure passing by just to our southeast, putting a southeasterly air flow over much of the region, injecting a more stable layer of marine air, and more abundant cloud cover also making solar heating more limited. The timing of the showers Saturday is still TBD, but I do think there will be many rain-free hours in any given location. Sunday’s weather looks quite nice as the front pulls offshore and a drier air mass arrives. This will persist into Monday as high pressure builds across the region, promoting fair weather.

TODAY: Hazy sun much of the day, eventually some clouds pop up later. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mid afternoon to sunset. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas near to north of I-90 and near to west of I-95 midday to late afternoon. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of showers. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79 except cooler coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

Next trough and frontal system brings unsettled weather June 10 into June 11 then fair weather returns with high pressure returning. Temperatures variable, no extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Indications are for fair weather early period / unsettled later period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

Canadian wildfire smoke aloft and variable high clouds together limit the sun at times today which will shine but in very filtered fashion. Our warm-up continues as well with a southwesterly air flow, which persists through Thursday, along with a gradual increase in humidity to “noticeable” levels. While the thickest smoke plume moves out tonight, we can still see varying amounts of it Thursday. We also have to watch for an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few locations, but the triggers will be limited, so the odds of any one location seeing something are small, and would favor north of I-90 and with the help of orographic lift in hilly terrain. Basically a 1 in 10 shot is what we’re looking at. The outlook remains the same with a frontal boundary settling into the region Friday into the weekend with a couple of weak low pressure waves and an upper pattern preventing a clean frontal passage. This presents the opportunity for a few to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with uncertainty as to timing and coverage. Current leaning is greatest chances of activity in the WHW forecast area is Friday morning and midday and again Saturday afternoon and evening. However, don’t make solid plans on that leaning – just have back-up plans if possible. I realize many graduations and other late spring / early summer events take place these days, dependent on weather, and it’s a tricky set-up. Looking ahead to Sunday, I still feel that a push of the frontal boundary to the southeast will be sufficient to clear us out with fair weather returning.

TODAY: Sun filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke aloft may thin somewhat with filtered sunshine, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms, possible favoring areas north of I-90 if they occur. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning to early afternoon. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day / evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Brief fair weather June 9 then a stretch of unsettled weather middle of next week before fair weather returns end of week. Details of the trough and frontal system bringing the unsettled weather not quite known as of yet. Temperatures variable, but not extreme.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Indications are for fair weather early period / unsettled later period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

This is going to be a “big diurnal” day. We haven’t had many of those this spring with an active pattern of wind and cloud cover preventing such set-ups, but today’s is ideal. Overnight, high pressure moved in and some initial clouds dissipated and moved out, leaving us with clear, calm conditions. Temperatures responded by falling quickly – a process known as radiational cooling – an idea set-up where any warmth from the day radiates easily to space as the air is not mixed by the wind. But today’s atmospheric set-up, with high pressure moving in aloft and the surface high center shifting to the south is one that allows a strong warm up. Often in this set-up, your coolest morning spots become your warmest afternoon spots, so areas like Taunton MA, for example, that sit in the lower 40s as of sunrise for low temps, will probably peak around or just over 80 for a high temp – a nearly 40-degree “diurnal” or difference between morning low and afternoon high. A location where the diurnal will be much less will be Boston’s Logan airport, sitting in the upper 50s early this morning without the full benefit of radiational cooling, eventually to have their temperature rise thwarted by a weak sea breeze, so they go from the upper 50s to perhaps near 70, a “diurnal” or only around a dozen degrees. These specific examples suffice to explain our late spring set-up today with the exception of the rest of the details of the sky conditions. A few patchy mid level clouds may appear in the sky later, and a few fair-weather cumulus may pop up during the day, but the sunshine minutes will be much higher than previous recent days. One limitation will be the trend toward more filtering of the sun by an increasing wildfire smoke plume aloft (from Canada). This will be with us into tomorrow as well, as we have a slightly more pronounced west to southwest wind and a warmer day, even for eastern coastal locations. It’ll be the South Coast most affected by the ocean air in Wednesday’s set-up. Thursday continues the warm up, even qualifying for a “hot” day for areas away from the South Coast as we make a run at 90 – a few places reaching it – and a little more humidity with dew points reaching or breaking 60. A cold front will be approaching from the northwest later Thursday, but its approach will not be aggressive and it also will have limited moisture to work with, and the lack of triggering mechanisms for convection, so I suspect as of today’s update that Thursday’s shower and thunderstorm chance will be minimal, with isolated activity favoring areas well west and north of Boston later in the day. The tricky part of this week’s forecast continues to be the Friday/Saturday time frame when the aforementioned frontal boundary will sag into our region and hang around for a while, and we watch for 1 or 2 waves of low pressure to drift up our way from the southwest. Yes, once again this means our wet weather chances increase as we head to week’s end, but what I need to still work out as timing of greatest shower and thunderstorm chances. At “days 4 & 5” there really is no way to know the finer details of convective development and the smaller scale triggers that don’t exist until these showers and storms exist, which play a significant role in governing their behavior, so I’m at a loss of ability to go into much detail just yet other than saying that Friday and Saturday look humid and unsettled.

TODAY: Sunshine, patchy clouds, and variable high altitude smoke, tending to increase later in the day. Highs 71-78 except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun filtered through high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke aloft may thin somewhat with filtered sunshine, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)

Currently leaning toward a push of drier air and return to fair weather to finish the weekend on June 8, fair weather early next week and unsettled weather with a trough and frontal system approaching by mid week. Temperatures variable, but not extreme.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

At least one round of unsettled weather, favoring later in the period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

Upper level low pressure pulls away from the region today and high pressure builds in our direction, but the northwesterly air flow between the two of them keeps us cool, and cold air aloft still allows some clouds to pop up during the day today, in addition to the existing ones moving along in the air flow – similar to but less extensive than yesterday. If you were paying attention, you noticed a veil of wildfire smoke overspread the sky from the south late yesterday (into last night). This was actually from Canada, but it took the indirect route around the upper low and then into our region as the circulation started to lift to the northeast. Since then it’s cleared back out, but we’ll be seeing it return more directly in a northwesterly air flow aloft later Tuesday, Wednesday, into Thursday, before getting pushed back out late week, at which time the sky will likely be more cloud-filled anyway. But before that, we have fair weather, lots of sun, and a strong warm-up in store as high pressure slips to our south Tuesday and Wednesday, into Thursday. Later Thursday, the approach of a cold front from the northwest can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the region. That front will then move into our region and temporarily become quasi-stationary with a couple rounds of probable showers and possible thunderstorms at some point Friday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny but increasing high altitude smoke late in the day. Highs 71-78 except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun filtered through high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke aloft may thin somewhat with filtered sunshine, then a sun/cloud mix with isolated to scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

A frontal boundary nearby to start the weekend brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms June 7, then a push of cooler and drier air brings fair weather for June 8. Fair weather early next week with high pressure in control, and a trend toward unsettled weather with a low pressure trough moving in toward midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

At least one round of unsettled weather in a transitional pattern – details TBA. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

Change the month / change the pattern. I used to joke about this with colleagues in my early days of forecasting. It just seemed like this happened enough times that it was a “thing”, but it’s really just a coincidence. We start June today with lingering effects from the pattern we had much of May, but immediately begin a transition to a newer pattern which will dominate the next 5 days. Today we welcome June but continue to feel impact from yesterday’s storm system as low pressure swirls in eastern Canada while drifting away. We’ll be under the influence of its circulation through Monday, but most notably today when we have a gusty breeze and start the day with a fair amount of stratocumulus clouds in the storm’s back-side circulation. Additionally, as clear patches allow more sun to shine, the cold air aloft in combination with the solar heating of the surface will trigger cumulus cloud development. I don’t think the cloud cover will be as extensive as last Sunday’s similar set-up (if you recall that), but the sun will most definitely be limited, along with below normal temperatures, so it will be a bit cool-feeling if you’re outside. Additionally, I cannot completely rule out a spot shower wandering into the region mainly north and west of Boston late in the day. Monday’s weather will be less breezy and more sunny, and while it’s still on the cooler side of normal, you’ll feel it as warmer out there with the combination of less wind and more sun. High pressure slides south of our region Tuesday through Thursday, and those days will feature a significant warm-up – a nice summer preview. Fair weather will be ours Tuesday and Wednesday, also much of Thursday, but a cold front approaching from the northwest later Thursday can trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity. The details of that threat, unknown at this point, will be clarified as we get closer to that day.

TODAY: Many clouds / intervals of sun. A spot shower potential late-day, favoring areas north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 62-69. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior valley locations. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late-day. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)

A frontal boundary will be nearby June 6-8. This time, no big low pressure areas – different pattern. What we do have to work out is a couple of waves of low pressure that will have an impact on the front’s position and associated shower / thunderstorm threats. It’s pretty far into the future, but my current leaning is the frontal boundary stays to our northwest June 6 (Friday), then moves through in the early hours of June 7 (Saturday), settles to the south, before making a temporary run back this way later June 8 (Sunday). The sensible weather from this scenario would be a shower and thunderstorm threat Friday night and first thing Saturday, and a shower threat later Sunday. Indications are for high pressure and fair weather early the following week (June 9-10).

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

Continued uncertainty about the details of the pattern, and current leaning in this time frame is for weak blocking with high pressure north, low pressure south, and our region favored to be on the drier side of that pattern, but having to watch low pressure to the south, “just in case”. Again, don’t hang up on any details here – this is just a general idea for now.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

An unsettled Saturday to close out May is what we have for our area today. This is due to low pressure cutting across the region – center passing over the western reaches of the WHW forecast area. The most widespread rainfall has already occurred, with the last couple bands of showers and downpours moving through from south to north as I write this, and a dry slot already starting to move in from the south. The latter will overspread most of the region with an episode of at least partial clearing – maybe even full sunshine for some areas for a couple hours. As the low center pulls further north, we switch from a southerly air flow to a westerly air flow. Wrap-around moisture will return a lot of clouds to the sky this afternoon along with at least isolated to scattered showers. Sometimes convergence of air on the back sides of these systems as they finish peaking in intensity can consolidate the showers into a more widespread rainfall area, and this is a possibility, especially for areas north of I-90, at some point late-day / evening. Playing the forecast wording as just scattered showers, but watch for this at the end of the day. Drier air will spread in overnight and Sunday as the low pulls further away. With some chill air aloft thanks to upper level low pressure, we’ll still see diurnal clouds pop up on Sunday and some already existing stratocumulus clouds associated with the upper low, so it won’t be a perfectly sunny first day of June, but it will be nicer than today, though you’ll have to put up with a gusty breeze if you plan to be outside. Another wrap-around batch of clouds may greet you first thing Monday, and I still think some diurnal cloud popping up takes place that day too, but it looks like quite a nice day just the same. On yesterday’s update, I was concerned about a low pressure area to our south being too close to allow a warm-up to last more than one day before being interrupted, but the indications are stronger that this low will be further south and weaker, allowing high pressure to sink to a position just south of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Result: Dry weather and a strong warm-up.

TODAY: Clouds, fog, showers, downpours around into mid morning but a clearing trend south to north mid morning to midday before lots of clouds return from the west with isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely early, then variably cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 62-69. Wind W 10-20 MPH, few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

A frontal boundary from the north drifts into the region early in this period bringing the chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Current thinking is low pressure moving into the Great Lakes and eventually north of our area pulls the boundary back to the north with warm weather and less of a shower and thunderstorm chance June 6, then pulls the front back through with a few showers early June 7, followed by fair weather later in the period. Temperatures cool down briefly then warm up again late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

There has been a lot of non-clarity about how the pattern shapes up heading toward mid June. The latest trend is for weak blocking but configured with high pressure over our area and low pressure well to the south. This set-up would be fair and seasonable, coolest coast most days. Still not the highest confidence on this outlook, so check updates.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Unsettled weather prevails for the final 2 days of May as a kind of summary to the month we just went through. Drought Monitor update yesterday did indeed show the drought is gone with the exception of a very small area on Cape Cod and Nantucket. In the short term, there’s additional drought reduction / elimination potential for those final areas as well. Today, a frontal boundary sitting in the region triggers a few early-day showers, and a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 belt region. Coverage should be fairly low overall, but any area that does see one or two pass through can experience brief downpours. Tonight, a wave of low pressure rides up the boundary and delivers widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms from late evening through overnight generally from south to north. This main area will depart by mid morning with a dry slot delivering some sun, but the trailing trough can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms any time from midday on, and an additional disturbance will bring another batch of showers and storms in the evening. This reflects faster timing than what I indicated on yesterday’s update, as the disturbance will take on more of a trough form, connected to the low pressure area that just went by, instead of developing into its own low center. This is good news for Sunday, with a drier westerly air flow dominate all day. The fact that we still have a trough overhead though means that chilly air associated with it aloft will allow the development of a fair amount of cumulus clouds on Sunday, so it’ll be a “limited sun” situation. I don’t think any of these clouds will grow capable of producing showers, so it should be a rain-free day and a bit cooler than Saturday. Monday and Tuesday feature a westerly air flow, dry weather, and a warming trend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including an early-day shower north of Boston. Partly sunny afternoon but isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Late evening and overnight widespread showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers / thunderstorms end south to north by mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible any time midday on. Highs 66-73. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly mid evening to 3:00AM. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, may be cooler at the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but potential coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

Watching a weak but broad area of low pressure to the south of New England which may thwart the midweek warm-up at least for a day June 4 with more clouds and a broad scale onshore air flow. Warmer weather returns after that, but watch a cold front from the north late next week (later June 6 current estimating timing) for a shower/thunderstorm threat. Early optimism for rain-free but slightly cooler weather June 7-8 weekend with influence from Canadian high pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Still some hints of weak blocking and a round or two of unsettled weather, but details remain very fuzzy out this far.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

An unsettled weather pattern is with us for the final few days of May, and the first several hours of June, in keeping with our weather pattern of late. Reiterating good news, pollen counts have been kept lower by frequent rain (good for allergy sufferers) and we have obliterated whatever was left of drought / abnormal dryness across the region. For many, that’s not enough of a consolation prize, but for those folks, I also have some better news – if you have patience. There isn’t much change to the players and their parts in the unsettled weather of the next few days. A warm front moving into the region today is thwarted a bit by a weak wave of low pressure forming on it and passing just southeast of our area. While many areas saw showers in the pre-dawn hours, additional showers can occur today, favoring RI and southeastern MA through early afternoon, after which the rain threat is a done deal for a while. But primary low pressure passing to our north still has to drag another frontal boundary into the region and it will do that tonight into Friday, and not hurriedly either. This boundary will be the focus point for a few showers and possible thunderstorms during the day Friday – right now leaning toward the I-90 / I-95 belts being more likely, with most of the activity occurring during a few hour window in the afternoon. There are many outdoor graduation ceremonies scheduled for Friday evening and I believe most of them won’t encounter any weather-related issues. I’d love to be able to say that front is going to be pulled cleanly through and we clear out for the weekend, but it’s not the case. Two low pressure areas look like they need to move through our area. The first will deliver a bout of rain later Friday night into Saturday morning. The track of the low center is somewhat crucial to how the balance of Saturday turns out. A further east track keeps us on the cooler, cloudier, damp side. A track further west could give us a few hours of drier, warmer weather before a round of showers and thunderstorms followed it. Leaning ever-so-slightly toward the western track scenario but please check updates on this. One final low pressure wave will ripple up the boundary the early hours of Sunday, but I think this one will move swiftly enough so that most of the shower activity with it will occur between late Saturday night and Sunday’s sunrise time. Again check updates on this too. If this prognostication is correct, most of Sunday would turn out decent. Finally, a drier westerly air flow brings nice weather Monday.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy – breaks of sun favor northwest of Boston early – showers / drizzle most likely south of Boston through early afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH early, becoming variable to S later.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm favoring the I-90 and I-95 belts midday to mid afternoon. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain early, then variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 61-68. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken with another round of widespread showers overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds and showers very early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Fair weather and a warm-up into the middle of next week. Watch for a shower threat with a frontal boundary from the north late week which may introduce a cooler maritime air mass, but this outlook is quite uncertain at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Hints of weak blocking and a round or two of unsettled weather, but details impossible this far in advance. No major temperature departures anticipated.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Dry air aloft thinned out a veil of high clouds overnight that had spread into the area late yesterday, but while offshore high pressure keeps us dry today, upper level moisture will increase again and a sunny start will lead to a cloudy finish to the day. Tonight into Thursday, a warm front moves into and partially across the region, slowed by a developing wave of low pressure on it. That results in a period of showery weather, and a slow diminishing of them on Thursday as the low saunters away and low level moisture hangs on. Finally a stronger low, albeit further away, moving through the Great Lakes will put us into a warmer southwesterly flow for Friday – a day that looks largely rain-free except for the slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as a moisture-starved cold front approaches. This front won’t stay moisture-starved for too long though. As it settles through the region Friday night and hangs around for a little while, a wave of low pressure forms and moves up along it Friday night into Saturday with more widespread rainfall. This system should be moving along enough that we get some improvement for a while for part of Saturday, but another disturbance can cause another round of showers later on, probably at night (timing / coverage to be fine-tuned). Finally, we clear out behind all of that on Sunday to start June with a nicer day.

TODAY: Sunny start / mainly cloudy finish. Highs 65-72 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind SW to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers arrive and continue. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers diminish, slowly. Drizzle and patchy fog. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH early, becoming variable to S later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain early, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers then overnight clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

A stretch of fair weather next week. Coolest early in the week, then a warm-up, but end-of-week may see a back-door cold front (maybe accompanied by a few showers) and a cool-down with the arrival of a maritime air mass.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Maritime air may dominate the June 7-8 weekend but optimistic that it’s controlled by high pressure with fair weather. A transition out of that and a hint at some weak blocking may mean some unsettled weather thereafter, but it’s far in the future and no clear, strong signals to what happens yet.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure in control of the weather makes today an easy pick of the week. It warms a little over yesterday, especially inland, but the coast will feel a cooling sea breeze. You’ll see some high clouds fanning up from the southwest during the day, but they won’t do much to interfere with the sun. Those clouds will start to increase during tomorrow though as high pressure slips offshore and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes with its warm front approaching our area. This front can bring some rain later Wednesday night then sets us up for a more humid and showery Thursday behind it and ahead of a cold front, the latter of which will pass by as low pressure moves eastward across southeastern Canada late Thursday to early Friday. You’d think that the passage of low pressure to our north and a cold front moving through would clear things out and set the stage for a couple of fair weather days. That often happens, but not this time, again. We’ll have upper level low pressure lingering and moving slowly through the region during the last couple days of the month – Friday and Saturday. The front that goes by won’t get that far east of here, and while an additional trough may kick off a few showers Friday, I’m watching for a potential wave of low pressure coming up that frontal boundary go bring some additional rain. If the timing is just so, most of that rain will come through Friday night and taper off Saturday, but it would likely still be an unsettled start to the weekend (and finish to May) with additional showers. There are several days to fine-tune this part of the forecast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Some high clouds. Lows 49-56. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 66-73, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

June 1 looks drier, maybe a pop-up shower with the last of upper level low pressure lingering before moving away, with temperature on the cooler side of average. Warmer weather looms in the early days of June behind this as high pressure sets up to our south and a more westerly flow results. Maybe the next disturbance later in the period brings a shower / t-storm chance.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Still not high confidence in this forecast period, but a little weak blocking may try to return with some additional unsettled weather, but this version of it would be less impactful than the events we saw during May.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

Upper level low pressure finally pushes off to the east today and high pressure moves our way from the west. There’s enough chilly air above us to still trigger the development of diurnal cumulus, but they won’t be as extensive and spread (stratocumulus) like yesterday, allowing a sun/cloud mix, and they won’t grow enough to produce showers here (that can take place but will be in the mountains to the west and north). After a cool start, it will be a pleasant day with generally light wind including a coastal sea breeze, where it will be a little cooler than inland as far as high temps go. Conditions are favorable for outdoor Memorial Day observances. High pressure builds and is in control for a stellar Tuesday – the pick of the week. After that things, cycle back to the weather being controlled by low pressure. Wednesday, a trough approaches and low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Its warm front will approach our region, increasing the clouds. A period of rain with the passage of that warm front occurs Wednesday night. Thursday, we get into the warm sector of the low with a southerly air flow, higher humidity, and showers around, until a cold front passes by at night or early Friday. But Friday can see additional showers in the area as the Great Lakes low is stacking under its upper low which has to drift eastward across the region, so the air will remain unstable that day.

TODAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sunny start except patchy clouds in western hills. Sun/cloud mix late morning on. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clouds dissipate. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 49-56. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 66-73, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

A low pressure trough aloft and a series of surface troughs bring a chance of showers (possibly thunderstorms) during the last day of May. Upper level low pressure gradually weakens and the flow becomes a little more zonal early days of June, but additional disturbances about June 2 and 4 can bring shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Still a mixed bag in our guidance but the general outlook is similar to yesterday. Not high confidence but leaning toward a couple periods of unsettled weather but no major systems or significant temperature departures from the long term average.