DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

We know that low pressure areas can bring us a variety of weather. However, high pressure areas can do the same, in their own way, and the next 5 days will provide an example of that. It may not sound like it when I first say that high pressure will bring us fair weather today into Friday, until a cold front approaches and brings a shot at showers and thunderstorms later Friday. Fair weather is fair weather, but the differences are in wind direction / speed, air temperature, and dew point, based on the position of the high pressure area, and this is a big factor in how it feels. So how does that change during these days? Today, with the high center in the northern Great Lakes, the flow between it and eastern Canadian low pressure will deliver a cool, dry, Canadian air mass on a gusty northwesterly breeze. One note though: Usually on days like this week think of a cobalt blue sky to go with the pleasant air mass, but you’ll notice a bit of a hazy look instead, and this is due to a plume of wildfire smoke aloft from Canada. Tuesday, as the high center builds from the Great Lakes into New England, we’ll see the northwesterly breeze fade away, and much lighter wind which will then allow a coastal sea breeze to develops. Wednesday, the high center starts to move offshore to our east and southeast, so a cool and calm Tuesday night after the sea breeze collapses will be replaced with a light southerly air flow and the first up-tick in the humidity after two very dry days. The air temperature will also rise a little, with some areas breaking 80 after two days in the 70s. This day, the “coolest” air would be at the South Coast due to the southerly wind flow being directly off the ocean water, which does run slightly cooler than what the land will warm up to during the day. Thursday and Friday, high pressure will remain offshore to the southeast and pump in increasing amounts of heat and humidity, peaking on Friday ahead of the aforementioned cold front. So there is how the weather changes from one “fair weather” system during the course of several days. Still, it’s a pretty decent vacation week in the region if it’s the one you picked and you’re hanging around here, or visiting here from elsewhere. Enjoy!

TODAY: Thin smoke aloft, otherwise sunshine with some passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point falls through the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point below 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point below 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog inland low elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point below 50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point rising through 50s to around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive later in the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

There’s some uncertainty on the weekend forecast (July 26-27) based on the movement / positioning of the front that comes into our region later Friday. How I think it plays out is the front is still near the South Coast into Saturday with a shower and thunderstorm threat lingering in southern areas with fair weather to the north, and then the front lifts slowly back to the north with the help of an approaching disturbance from the west Sunday with eventually a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Beyond that, timing of the disturbance would determine the July 28 weather – possibly with the disturbance slow enough for additional showers and storms, then fair weather following that toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Overall pattern indications a west to northwest flow east of a central US high pressure ridge with a trough of low pressure in Atlantic Canada. Shower/thunderstorm chances would be limited to a couple passing disturbances and most of the time the region would see fair weather, with somewhat variable temperatures but no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

Yesterday was the pick of the weekend for the vast majority of people. Today is the pick of the weekend if you like higher humidity, less sun, and at least the chance of a thunderstorm. (And not that this next statement is relevant to the forecast, but I pick both days – haha!) … But writing in favor of the likings of the “weather majority”, the high pressure area that brought us very nice weather yesterday has departed and today we’ll be dealing with an area of low pressure passing to our northwest, bringing us higher humidity and some unsettled weather. Our wet weather / storm chances will be limited though, and for any given location most of today will be rain-free. A warm front passing by this morning brings the best chance of showers to the South Coast and Cape Cod, but a lot of this will stay over water just to the south, and the last of it should exit that region by noon. Otherwise, a cloud canopy covers much of the region to start the day, but later this morning into this afternoon a clearing trend will allow for a fair amount of sunshine – with that sun also reaching southeastern areas later. This means that your Sunday turns quite nice, despite the higher humidity, because a ventilating breeze will accompany the increase in sunshine too. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day, and across NY and northern New England we’ll see showers and thunderstorms pop up and eventually organize into a broken line (perhaps 2 lines as some short range guidance has hinted at that). For the majority of the WHW forecast area though I am expecting the impact to be from one broken line of showers and storms passing through from northwest to southeast generally from 3:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Note! That 6-hour window does not mean you see rain and thunder for 6 hours. It means that during that 6 hour window, the front and its accompanying convective activity move from northwest to southeast across the region. Pick any given location and a shower or thunderstorm would visit for 30 to 90 minutes, in general – with a tendency to be more to the shorter duration of that range. Additional, a broken line of convection can have gaps in it which means that some areas can be grazed or even entirely missed – seeing little or nothing. This is the nature of convective activity, so monitor radar if you have plans in the time window of concern. For areas that do see the stronger storms, expect brief torrential rain, potentially frequent lightning, possible small hail, and the biggest threat being strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. All of this ends by late evening as the front clears the coast. Then cue the Canadian air mass which moves in for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds southeastward into our region. Temperatures fall below normal during this time with very dry air as well. Heading to midweek, Wednesday and Thursday will feature fair weather and a warming trend as high pressure slides offshore.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Sun / cloud mix this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely from northwest to southeast mid afternoon on. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, some higher gusts, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms can contain strong, gusty winds.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Dew point drops below 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point in 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point in 40s Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SSW under 10 MPH.,

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Brief heat / humidity spike July 25 with late-day t-storm potential from approaching cold front. Early look at the July 26-27 weekend shows fair weather July 26 and unsettled weather with a disturbance on July 27, but this far in advance timing is not super-certain. Fair, dry weather would follow that later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

West to northwest air flow east of a central US ridge, with trough in Atlantic Canada. This pattern is dry much of the time, brief shower / t-storm chances from passing disturbances, and features variable temperatures with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

High pressure provides a candidate for a “top ten” summer day today with lots of sun, light wind, pleasant air, a coastal sea breeze – all of that stuff! Your decision on the rank! High pressure departs tonight and a disturbance approaches from the west. This is part of our transition into a faster west to northwest flow pattern. Low pressure passing to our north Sunday will provide unsettled weather, but also many hours of rain-free weather. Pay attention because here’s how I expect it to play out! In the pre-dawn to mid morning hours, a warm front will cross the region with shower activity. Some of this can be heavy, particularly toward the South Coast where some short-lived flash flooding / street flooding can occur in heavier downpours. Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms are a slight risk with this batch. Lesser coverage of showers and storms – mainly isolated to scattered – can be expected to the north in the early morning, and the activity may linger longest South Coast / Cape Cod before heading out. A “break period” between this and the arrival of a cold front will allow for at least a few and up to several hours of rain-free weather with a mix of sun and clouds across the region from late morning into much of the afternoon, after which the aforementioned cold front will send what I think will be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the region from northwest to southeast from late afternoon through early evening – possibly fading in strength and coverage as it gets closer to the South Coast / Cape Cod. Initially, this area will have the chance to produce some severe storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Once the front passes, the threat is gone, and we’re going to be visited by a crisp, cool Canadian air mass to start next week. In fact Monday through early Tuesday might remind you a bit of September with below normal temperatures and very low dew points. We’ll see a little temperature recovery Tuesday afternoon, and a more noticeable one by Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore while very nice weather continues.

TODAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point rises through 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH – coastal sea breezes likely.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Shower and thunderstorm potential increases from southwest to northeast overnight – mainly after 2:00 a.m. – with highest chance south of I-90. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming S 5-15 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of I-90 and numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to the south, may linger into late morning toward Cape Cod / South Coast. Sun / cloud mix late morning into afternoon, followed by heavier clouds and a shower / thunderstorm many areas from northwest to southeast later afternoon through early evening. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point spikes to upper 60s to lower 70s, but starts to fall from northwest to southeast late-day. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially afternoon. Watch for potential variable, strong, gusty winds around any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Dew point drops below 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point in 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Central US high pressure ridge and west northwest flow over our region. July 25 and 28 are the most likely “chance of a shower or thunderstorm” days with passing disturbances, otherwise a mostly dry pattern with variable temperatures with the 5-day average generally seasonable.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Basically no change from the outlook of the period that precedes this. Variable temperatures, maybe a little more tendency for cooler from Canada with 1 or 2 chances at passing showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Refreshing Canadian air arrives today and hangs around into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. Today will feature a gusty breeze ahead of the high, while lighter winds and coastal sea breezes will be with us Saturday as the high sits overhead. But by Saturday evening the high center shifts offshore as another trough and frontal system approach the region from the west northwest. This will produce a spike of higher humidity and a couple rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms between the pre-dawn and start of evening Sunday. That said, the day is also likely to feature many hours of rain-free conditions. That system will also be followed by a shot of Canadian air for the start of next week.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls to near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH morning-midday before settling.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by clouds evening. Cloudy overnight with showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun early / more sun from midday onward. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly early morning and late-day west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point drops into 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

No changes. Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. Much of this period will feature dry weather but a couple disturbances can bring passing showers / t-storms. Temperatures show typical variability but average close to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Indications remain for a similar pattern during this period, overall a northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

One more day in this current stretch of heat and humidity today, but we mark a coming transition with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms from both a weakening disturbance (late morning to mid afternoon) and a cold front (late afternoon through early evening). Despite some parameters for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, there exists several parameters limiting such activity, so a little atmospheric struggle ensues and my forecast reflects this by just keeping it as chance of showers and storms with a fairly low risk of isolated severe thunderstorms. Nevertheless, all it takes is one, so keep an eye on the radar through evening. After the cold front goes by, the chance is by the boards, and a cooler, drier air mass arrives overnight. Friday is going to be quite different than I was thinking just a few days ago, when my forecast was for slower timing. Instead of higher humidity and showers/thunderstorms around, it’s just going to be a day of sun and passing clouds, low humidity, and seasonably warm weather – maybe a bit reminiscent of what we saw July 4. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday with fair, pleasant weather. A quick-moving disturbance and cold front will bring a round or two of showers and thunderstorms to the region sometime during the first 12 hours of Sunday (but probably only lasting a couple to a few hours in any given location). Timing on this will be nailed down in the next couple updates. Another Canadian air mass arrives Sunday afternoon to be with us through Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise partly cloudy. Fog patches especially in areas that saw rainfall.Lows 68-75 with similar dew points early then falling dew points through the 60s overnight. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 83-90. Dew point falls into / through 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH mainly morning-midday.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by clouds evening. Cloudy overnight with showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun early / more sun from midday onward. Showers/thunderstorms most likely very early, then just a chance of a passing shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point drops into 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. During this 5-day period a couple passing disturbances / fronts can bring a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise dry weather dominates with variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

Indications continue that the pattern changes very little heading through the end of July – northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

The heat / humidity combo peaks today under high pressure aloft with surface high pressure offshore. While we keep the humidity into Thursday, the heat gets knocked back a peg as we have more clouds along with shower and thunderstorm chances as a disturbance and cold front approach. There will probably be 2 our 3 rounds of shower and storm chances through evening, and the potential does exist for a few severe storms. The cold front that I was eyeing for late week passes by more quickly than originally anticipated, and this allows me to forecast the heat easing and the humidity dropping noticeably on Friday, with the showers and storms out of the forecast for that day. Even cooler and drier air will arrive for Saturday via Canada as high pressure builds into the region. Quick-moving systems means that next disturbance arrives Sunday bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region – though it looks like more time will be rain-free than wet on that day. Timing may even be quick enough that most of the wet weather threat is the first half of the day, but that is TBD, so check updates in the next few days for Sunday’s forecast fine-tune!

TODAY: Plenty of sun & a few popcorn clouds. Highs 87-94, 79-86 South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevations. Lows 69-76. Dew point 67-73. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise partly cloudy. Fog patches especially in areas that saw rainfall Lows 68-75 with similar dew points. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 83-90. Dew point falls through 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 59-66. Dew point falls to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. During this 5-day period a couple passing disturbances / fronts can bring a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise dry weather dominates with variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Strongest indications are that the pattern changes very little heading through late July – northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

What’s left of a cold front drifts offshore and dissipates today, but brings lingering showers to Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket first. High pressure builds offshore with predominant heat and humidity through midweek. Some short range guidance has shown the possibility for an isolated shower / thunderstorm popping up this afternoon and with the higher dew point air and a couple boundaries around from recent rain showers, I can see that as a slight chance, but after the early showers leave southeastern areas, it will be a generally rain-free day. Wednesday’s rain chance is nil. It is Thursday, when a trough approaches and passes, and Friday, when a cold front swings through, that have shower and thunderstorm opportunities, both of which will be focused on more closely starting with my next update. Behind that late-week cold front comes a pleasant air mass for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Cloudy start with showers Cape Cod / Islands, otherwise a sun / cloud mix with only the slightest chance of an isolated pop-up PM shower. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 CC / Islands. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 65. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise variably cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 81-88. Dew point 70+, may drop late-day west to east. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Northwest flow dominates. Disturbances around July 20 and one or two more after that bring passing shower and thunderstorm chances while most times are rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Large scale pattern features a ridge of high pressure in the central US. West to northwest flow here brings variable temps averaging near to above normal and passing disturbances can bring a couple shower and thunderstorm chances but again much of the time fair weather would rule.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

Mid July. July weather in the forecast. Sounds about right! This week will feature fairly high humidity, some heat, and several thunderstorm chances. High pressure offshore pumps in the warm and humid air today, and a trough and cold front approaching from the west triggers showers and storms to our west this afternoon. Later timing on the frontal boundary, which is losing identity as is, means that the activity is likely to peak to our west, but still can be fairly potent entering western portions of the forecast area by late afternoon, but losing potency while moving into eastern areas this evening. Areas that do see a stronger one can experience gusty wind and torrential rain with brief, localized flooding. Activity will fade while moving east and southeast tonight, but what is left of the frontal boundary will still be over southeastern sections into Tuesday morning, and can help ignite additional showers until about midday before it moves offshore and largely dissipates. This leads to continued warm and fairly humid weather Tuesday, and a building of heat and higher humidity as we head into Wednesday, a day that high pressure should prevent pop-up storms for the region – though borderline so maybe an isolated one mainly well west and northwest of Boston where than can be some orographic aid from hills. Thursday, heat and humidity continue, but a disturbance approaching from the west means afternoon thunderstorms will become more likely (more on this chance in the next couple updates). Friday, we keep the humidity, but maybe turn down the heat a notch with more cloudiness as a cold front approaches and crosses the region, triggering more showers and storms.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog dissipate early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with more clouds later in the day. Showers/thunderstorms become likely western areas mid to late afternoon and probable eastern areas evening – some strong with gusty winds / downpours, but a weakening trend while activity moves toward the east. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm early, favoring eastern areas. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with least sun morning and most sun afternoon. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA mainly until midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 65-71. Dew point near 65. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Afternoon thunderstorms develop west to east. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise variably cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, generally in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70+, may drop late-day west to east. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late-day from west to east.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

High pressure provides fair, warm weather but lower humidity July 19, starting the weekend on a nice note. Question for July 20 is how fast does the next disturbance arrive from the west with shower and t-storm chances. Leaning toward quicker timing and a threat before day’s end, but may get through much of day before that. This timing would allow it to clear out for July 21 but need to watch for next disturbance and shower/t-storm threat later in the period as we establish a faster west northwest flow pattern aloft.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Large scale pattern features a ridge of high pressure in the central US. West to northwest flow here brings variable temps that can include heat shots, and disturbances that can bring a couple thunderstorm chances, although rain-free weather would be dominant.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

High pressure offshore continues to sink southward, and similar to yesterday we’ll see a morning stratus and fog layer burn off to a sun/cloud mix, and a general southeasterly flow keeps the coastal areas cooler than the interior as we remain fairly humid today. A more southerly air flow takes over tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front, which will bring an increasing shower and thunderstorm chance from west to east late-day and night, but as the activity is starting to dwindle due to the loss of solar heating. The front will be slow to cross, as previously mentioned, and this brings about the chance for additional showers into a portion of Tuesday, mainly along and east of I-95, with a diminishment of the chance as the front slides offshore. High pressure builds on Wednesday, both surface, and aloft, resulting in a sunny day with the air heating up, but a potential sea breeze capping the rise at the coast. A little change from yesterday’s outlook is prompted by fairly reliable guidance showing a stronger trough approaching on Thursday as we see a warm to hot, humid southerly air flow. This can increase the potential for thunderstorms before day’s end.

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog give way to a mix of sun and clouds. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly west of I-95. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with least sun morning and most sun afternoon. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation locations. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Afternoon thunderstorms develop west to east. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

A cold front moves through during July 18 with additional showers and thunderstorms along with high humidity. High pressure builds in with fair weather to start the July 19-20 weekend but a vigorous disturbance from the west northwest, signaling a shift in the pattern, may arrive as early as July 20 with t-storm chances, followed by fair and warm to hot weather early the following week. May have to tweak that disturbance timing on future updates due to normal uncertainty with guidance so far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

Large scale pattern features a ridge of high pressure in the central US. West to northwest flow here brings variable temps that can include heat shots, and disturbances that can bring thunderstorm chances, although rain-free weather would be dominant.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

High pressure offshore, sinking slowly southward, provides mild to warm, humid weather this weekend, with a passing disturbance bringing only the chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm to the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH this afternoon. Otherwise, it’s a rain-free weekend. Broad scale southeasterly air flow will keep coastal areas cooler than inland areas during the days, and areas of fog will form at night, dissipating after sunrise. Above the low cloud / fog layer this morning is a swath of higher clouds fanning off thunderstorms in Upstate NY, so as clouds break there will still be some other clouds above that, limiting the sun for a while. Tomorrow this should not be the case, and breaking up of the fog and stratus layer will lead to more sunshine. By Monday, a cold front approaches from the west, and a southerly air flow ahead of it bumps up the low level moisture and brings back more cloudiness. Showers and thunderstorms firing up ahead of this front may arrive by late-day, mainly to the west, but much of the day likely ends up being rain-free due to the later timing of the front, which will also be somewhat slow to make its way through the region. This means that southeastern areas can still see a shower or thunderstorm into a portion of Tuesday. High pressure building in for Wednesday but surface and aloft will result in sunshine and very warm weather.

TODAY: Low clouds / fog dissipate to a sun/high cloud mix this morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy this afternoon with only a slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the hills of north central MA and/or southwestern NH. Highs 73-80 coastal plain, 80-87 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog return. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Low clouds / fog give way to sunshine. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92 but a bit cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

High pressure slides offshore with a bit of heat and humidity July 17. Next cold front moves through July 18 with the potential for showers/thunderstorms across the region. High pressure builds in behind that with fair, seasonably warm weather heading through the July 19-20 weekend through period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

High pressure builds aloft, probably centered southwest of New England. This is a hotter pattern here, but also a northwest flow which allows a couple disturbance to bring shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

Improving weather is in the cards for our region today and this weekend. This is not a fresh Canadian air mass we have moving in, rather it’s just an area of drier air aloft and still fairly humid conditions at the surface as a weak area of high pressure drifts southward just east of New England. Large-scale onshore air flow results, easterly at first then shifting more southerly with the migration of the high pressure area. This will result in a slow warm-up, but no high heat. Additionally, residual moisture in the region can lead to pop up showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-495 both today and Saturday. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm if a cells is organized enough. Such activity should be absent Sunday. It’s Monday when our next chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms occurs, in response to a cold front moving in from the west, with warm, humid southerly air flow ahead of it. Right now, timing looks later-day / evening for this activity, but will monitor for changes in timing. The front may be a little slow to cross the region completely, resulting in additional shower chances for southeastern areas into part of Tuesday, with those details to be determined.

TODAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog. Clouds break for sun at times midday on but a pop up shower possible west of I-495, mainly hills of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78 coastal plain, 78-85 inland. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Low clouds become widespread. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Low clouds and areas of fog dominate at first, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 73-80 coastal plain, 80-87 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog return. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Highs 82-90. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

High pressure dominates with fair, warm to hot weather middle of next week. Watching for next frontal system with shower and thunderstorm threat for about July 18 with fair, warm weather returning late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

Pattern shift allows high pressure to build just to west and nearby with an overall warmer to hotter pattern. A west to northwest flow aloft can deliver passing showers and storms as disturbances move through the flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

One more unsettled day before we see improvement Friday and this weekend. Today’s main issue is heavy rainfall this morning, mostly in a band just to the south of Boston down to northern and central RI and eastern CT. While this band can have some thunderstorms embedded in it, the main threat from it is flash flooding to impact some property and of course commuting. Use caution in this area. The disturbance responsible is causing a pretty widespread rainfall across the region – although with a break ongoing as I write this along much of the South Coast. Finally the shower activity will diminish and just become isolated by midday on, but we’ll remain under a blanket of clouds with a cool onshore air flow. As weak high pressure begins to exert its influence on us Friday and especially this weekend, we’ll see improved weather. We can still see some pop up showers on Friday and some areas of fog each night / early morning, but the general trend is for fair and slightly warmer weather and moderate humidity heading through the weekend. The next trough and frontal system arrives Monday with higher humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers with possible embedded thunderstorms, heaviest eastern CT, northern and central RI, I-90 belt of MA during this morning with flash flood potential. Showers taper off becoming light and isolated midday on. Patchy fog this morning. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Considerably cloudy but breaks of sun develop. A pop-up shower in the afternoon favors southwestern NH and central MA hills. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 82-90. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Frontal boundary may still be over southeastern areas with shower and thunderstorm risk July 15. High pressure dominates with fair, warm to hot weather middle of next week. Watching for next frontal system with shower and thunderstorm threat for later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Pattern shift allows high pressure to build just to west and nearby with an overall warmer to hotter pattern. A west to northwest flow aloft can deliver passing showers and storms as disturbances move through the flow, but can’t pinpoint such events this far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

We’re back in an unsettled weather pattern that started with a few showers and thunderstorms in the area yesterday that blossomed into a more concentrated belt of storms coming in 2 parts and giving much of the region from I-90 southward quite a lightning show including some areas of torrential rainfall. Today, the disturbance that triggered the final round of storms late last night is still moving through with additional showers and embedded downpours this morning, but this activity will diminish today as the disturbance departs. We are left with a light but regionwide flow of marine air from the Atlantic as a frontal boundary sits just to our south. Areas of fog will result, and a general cloud cover with limited breaks. Any breaks / solar heating along with existing surface boundaries can fire off a few more showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon – mainly near the South Coast and also inland generally west of I-495. As another disturbance crosses the region tonight, these will be morphed into a more general shower area that will give much of the region some needed rain overnight into Thursday, with heavier thunderstorms probably confined to areas well to the west – generally west of the WHW forecast area. This activity will diminish leaving us with just a lot of clouds and maybe a spot shower on Friday. Some weekend improvement seems in the cards as weak high pressure builds in, we go rain-free, and experience a modest warm-up.

TODAY: Areas of fog. A cloudy start with fairly widespread early showers and embedded downpours.. Mostly cloudy – partial sun possible – later morning on with pop up afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms mainly west of I-495 and south of I-90. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. A shower possible in the evening. Widespread showers return overnight including thunderstorms with heavy rain. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, tapering off west to east afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower possible. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Disturbance and frontal system brings a shower / thunderstorm chance to the region July 14 into July 15 followed by fair weather by the middle of next week. Next shower / thunderstorm chance comes at the end of the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Early period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Mid to late period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

The remains of Chantal clipped Cape Cod and the Islands with heavy showers and thunderstorms in the early morning hours today, but have exited that region. We’re left with a another humid day, quite warm (not as hot as yesterday most areas). A cold front moving through the region from north to south will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms in scattered / clustered form mainly this afternoon, with a second surge possible in some areas tonight into early Wednesday as the front becomes mainly stationary just to the south. A little push from high pressure to the northeast should then limit the shower chances to the South Coast and well west of Boston for the balance of Wednesday, before a disturbance from the west increases the chances and coverage from west to east on Thursday, tapering off Friday as the disturbance continues onward to the east. Weak high pressure takes over Saturday with better weather. I am optimistic that the previously-mentioned disturbance and shower chance for Saturday will be something that occurs north of our region.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, some storms can be locally severe and some can produce torrential downpours with flooding. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Additional scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy – some limited sun possible. Scattered showers anywhere early, then favoring areas south of I-90 and west of I-495 later on. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially midday and afternoon. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers diminish. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Fair and warmer July 13 to finish off the weekend. Disturbance and frontal system brings a shower / thunderstorm chance to the region July 14 into July 15 followed by fair weather by the middle of next week. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Into mid period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Later in the period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

The holiday weekend is over (unless you extended it) and we move into the heart of summer now. And today will certainly feel like it with heat and high humidity thanks to high pressure offshore. The increase in moisture, combined with solar heating, can lead to a few pop up showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon, although most places will not see anything. Any of that activity dissipates this evening, but the clouds will increase overnight with both the approach of the remains of T.S. Chantal from the Southwest and a cold front from the northwest. The former will bring a batch of showers from pre-dawn to mid morning Tuesday, but heaviest and most concentrated activity is likely to occur over Cape Cod and the Islands. The latter will increase the shower and thunderstorm chances from northwest to southeast from midday through afternoon. With some sunshine, it will still be able to heat up and also it will be quite humid. Showers/storms will simmer down and diminish Tuesday night as the front pushes through, then settles to a stop near or off the South Coast Wednesday into late week. A little press of high pressure from the north will keep us mainly dry Wednesday with just a possible shower to the south and west of Boston. A wave of low pressure moving eastward along the front to our south will increase shower chances later Thursday into Friday. Wednesday through Friday will also be noticeably cooler than early week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Any early isolated showers dissipate. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase especially east of I-95 overnight. Lows 71-78. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA early, then redeveloping from northwest to southeast midday through afternoon. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. A shower possible south and west of Boston. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly in the afternoon. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly morning and midday. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

The July 12-13 weekend will be governed by weak high pressure and mainly dry, though a spot shower or t-storm can’t be ruled out July 12 as an upper disturbance passes by. A modest warm-up but no high heat is expected. Disturbance brings increased shower / thunderstorm chances early next week with a drying trend by midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Through mid period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Later in the period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.