DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
An upper level trough approaches today and passes through the region Sunday, and will only be responsible for some increase in cloud cover later today while it now appears most shower activity stays north and west of the area with just a few stray late-day showers wandering into mainly Boston’s northwestern suburbs. Sunday, a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms can develop, but would be isolated to at most scattered coverage. Although any that do develop could produce small hail due to the pocket of very cold air aloft, associated with the upper trough. High pressure builds back into the region Monday through Wednesday of next week with more fair and dry weather.
TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog early morning in some locations. Sunniest through midday then more limited sun later in the day with an isolated shower possible northwest of Boston. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low elevation fog patches possible. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas south of MA/NH border. Highs 68-75. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with coastal area breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
A Canadian cold front drops through the region between later September 18 and early September 19, renewing Canadian high pressure and more dry weather. Temperatures variable, but not extreme, averaging near normal.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Still no indications of any significant changes to the overall weather pattern heading into late month.
Model caveats…
RRFS: Overdoing showers today. Underdoing showers Sunday.
HRRR: Pretty decent.
NAM 3km: Overdoing showers today. Underdoing showers Sunday.
NAM 12km: Who looks at the 12km NAM anymore?
GFS: Over-forecasting rainfall throughout its entire run (00z) and of course can’t be trusted with tropical systems.
ECMWF: Fair to use, has a decent handle.
GDPS: It has an ok handle on the pattern but I wish the precipitation depiction didn’t look like a child got into someone’s can of green paint.
That is all. ๐
This is great !
Very interesting. Thank you
Good morning and thank you TK.
52 earlier this morning. 56 now.
Thanks TK !
It was so nice and cool for sleeping in the camper.
Fall camping is some of the best, it was cooling quickly enough last night to want to be closer to the campfire.
Nothing quite beats cool nights and a fire
I can think of a few things. ๐ ๐ ๐
๐
Wordle in 4. This one was tricky. Never heard of the word.
Good getting this one. And That explains a lot. After three I have four letters with one in the correct place and no idea what the word is.
Oh great ๐ ๐ ๐
Thanks for the heads up Arod !
Took 5 and ๐
4 for me as well.
I know this word and have used it before. ๐
And, it was tricky. To me, this was the best Wordle word since I started playing. I give it 5 stars. ๐
After 3 guesses, I had 4 letters, only 1 in the correct position.
I fiddled with a few letters and nothing doing. Then I stared at it again and WHAM!!! It came to me in a flash and I KNEW it would be the correct word.
Fascinating yet extremely frustrating game.
Excellent JPD. I got it only by entering letters randomly. My fourth guess helped a lot but even after Looking up the meaning of that guess, I still donโt understand what it is
I wrote a couple of black jack card counting articles that were published in BlackJack Forum magazine. In at least one of them, I used that word to explain a few things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack_Forum
Now defunct.
Met the founder and publisher in Las Vegas for breakfast one day.
That seems like a life time ago. ๐
Very interesting. Thanks!
Got it in 3 today..
Wow. Very impressive
Good morning and thank you, TK.
48 now after a low of 45
The Texas Rangers and I think Cleveland have caught fire. Texas swept the Brewers and went on the road and beat a decent Mets team last night.
Suddenly 3 back of the Sox who go against Max Fries today.
I know theyโve been resilient all year, but I still donโt think a playoff spot is a lock.
Iโm with Philip, that Roman Anthony injury is massive and I give the Sox credit for playing .500 ball since it happened. But if Texas plays .800 ball as theyโve been doing, they will pass us in the last 14 games.
Max Fried
Who if Max Fried? I assume he is a good pitcher for some team. ๐
Shows you how much I follow baseball these days.
It used to be my passion. How things change.
Braves pitcher who, I think hit free agency and chose the Yanks and all that money they offered.
Heโs very, very, very good.
Thanks Tom.
Wait, I thought that the Royals were the team to watch out for? Now it’s the Rangers. Meanwhile, neither team has caught the Red Sox all season, and has very little time to do so. After this weekend, the Red Sox host the pathetic A’s while the Rangers go to division-leading Houston.
There are 14 games left. If the Red Sox go 7-7, the Rangers have to go 10-4 the rest of the way to catch the Red Sox (Oh, and they’d still have to pass one of Houston or Seattle to do so).
It was and you correctly told me that day it wasnโt the Royals to worry about. I was wrong.
God love you, I hope you can still find some way to improve with the use of your words in conversation.
In my heart, I donโt think you mean to, but somehow you demean people when they get something wrong.
You’ve spent all season talking about how this team wasn’t good enough, now you keep looking for teams that are going to catch them.
How about spending some time talking about the fact this team, despite all the gloom and doom from nearly everyone after the Devers trade, continues to excel and is on the cusp of not only getting into the playoffs, but potentially hosting the Wild Card round, or even winning the division?
There’s a reason I stopped listening to sports radio a decade ago. We were in the golden age of Boston sports and all they wanted to do was tell us how bad everything was and not to enjoy it. That attitude is everywhere now with our local teams and I honestly can’t stand it. We have the absolute worst fanbases, and it’s all because of sports radio. Try being positive about our local teams for once.
That worked well.
Sox offense is a yawn fest. I really miss the years when they had really good offense up and down the lineup and who would make pitchers work.
Iโm been on a fortunate/lucky Wordle run lately.
3
I KNEW you would get this one. ๐ Nice job!
Sclarke will have it as well.
Thanks !
WOW
๐
Max Fried as Tom said was a free agent signing for the Yankees this season. He pitched with the Braves for a number of years. He became the ace of the pitching staff when Gerrit Cole missed the season with Tommy John Surgery. He had a little rough patch when coming back from a blister but lately he has looked like the ace of the pitching staff.
Thanks, TK!
I got Wordle in 3 today.
This game sure has it’s high points and it’s low points
I Knew you would. Nice job!!
Awesome
There have been some days this summer that if it wasnโt for โWordleโ the number of comments would have ended up being in the single digits.
Only on heat wave/heat index days did the comments light up like a Christmas tree.
Nature of the business. ๐
Just not much going on weather-wise. ๐
Thatโs for sure. ๐
The cooler regime we’ve had is far more impressive than the limited number of hot days we had. ๐ I know I like to talk about ALL weather. ๐
Thanks, TK.
Max Fried is an excellent pitcher. The Sox have done well, however, against lefties. Last time they faced Fried, they won, albeit in a pitcher’s duel, 2-0. Guess who homered against Fried that day in June? Devers; his last homer as a member of the Red Sox. Raffy is quietly having a good season, by the way. Only .260 batting average, but he’s been good where it matters in terms of production: 31 homeruns and 102 RBIs. His Giants collapsed around him following the trade in June but have really picked it up lately. They’re breathing down the neck of the stumbling Mets for a wildcard spot.
I’ve been wrong about the Sox this season. I’m glad to not have been right. Still, I share Tom’s concerns. The Sox have been resilient. Let’s see what happens as we close out the long season.
Northern Hemisphere ACE: 47% of normal to-date, one of the lowest observed.
Western Pacific ACE: 35% of normal to-date. Remarkably low.
Pattern does not support anything in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean for the next 10 to 14 days. Wind shear will be a hindrance to any formation.
The disturbance well to the east in the Atlantic as of this afternoon has a 0% chance of development through 48 hours and 50% chance after 48 hours through 7 days. I actually think that chance will be lowered in future updates.
TK – Will the name โErinโ retire even though she didnโt hit any landmasses?
Nope. Doesn’t need to be retired.
Itโs all clear here now but for awhile this afternoon the sky looked like it would open up at any moment. When I went outside for a walk, a raindrop did hit my glasses but nothing more came of it.
Dark clouds to my S and SW
New post…