8:52AM
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)…
The Vernal Equinox occurs early Sunday morning, and for those who still don’t know exactly what that means, it’s when Winter turns to Spring. We all know around here that it doesn’t automatically mean we leave Winter, harsh or not, behind us and see nothing but sun and warmth. Spring in New England can bring that, but more often than not brings a variety of weather ranging from the pleasant to the lingering feel of Winter, though one of the more common feels in Spring, especially if you live near the coast, is ocean-boosted chill. On this final day of astronomical Winter, it will be the feel of Winter we have as a pretty cold air mass has been delivered to us from Canada, but this is not like a mid Winter cold, and the strong March sunshine will offset the existing air mass, as well as the fact that it won’t be too windy. Net result, a bright, chilly day, that doesn’t feel that bad if you’re outside. The next order of business is the storm threat, which as you know, we’ve been eyeing for a long while. The error lies not in the fact we knew there would be a storm threat in this window around the Equinox, as it is indeed there. As I always say, it comes down to details in the end, as far as the actual impact. You can still have identified a storm threat and have the storm pass just too far away to impact you directly, or you can get a storm full-on, or anything in between. If you’re incorrect in your initial assessment as a forecaster, there will be no threat at all. This is not the case this time. The ultimate result, as far as southern New England is concerned, is the storm will impact the region, just not in a major way. Everyone will see cloudiness, most of us will see snow, but few of us will see the kind of snow that has to be moved around to make travel easier. That appears as if it will be confined to the southeastern reaches of our area, as the storm threat is coming in the form of a couple loosely connected areas of low pressure which are never given the full opportunity to join together, forming a larger system that would have had a greater reach and a more northward track. And it is even more complex than just 2 low pressure areas. There are no less than 4 pieces of energy, which as of this morning, are still hundreds of miles apart, that would need to come together to make the “worst-case scenario” occur. As meteorologists (and some enthusiasts) we only have past experience, current information, and human-programmed computer guidance to rely on. And in some cases, the latter is going to reveal its limitations. This is one of those cases. It is generally, at medium range, a widespread model error across the board. We can argue which models are better or worse, and it’s obvious that a couple picked up on this new southward trend sooner than others, but that’s not to say they would perform any better or worse on a situation slightly different than this. There is never anything truly 100% certain in the science of meteorology, and though we’ll learn from this situation and hope to apply some of this knowledge going forward, the truth is we’ll never see this exact set-up again, and that is both the beauty and ugliness of this science that I and many others love so much. So now that you know my view on all of this, we go forward and finish the forecast, and the adjustment has been made to push the snow area further southeastward with minor to borderline moderate amounts (break-down below). Timing of the snow will be mainly Sunday night to early Monday. The systems all push away during Monday and help deliver a short-lived shot of colder air for Tuesday. A warm front will move into the region Wednesday, bringing cloudiness and possibly some precipitation with it.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the middle 10s to lower 20s. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy with variable high clouds from the south and scattered lower clouds from the ocean. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light NE to E.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops south to north but may barely make it north central MA and southwestern NH, and will be steadiest and moderate at times mainly over southeastern MA. Accumulations from 1 inch or less north central MA into south central NH, 1-3 inches Boston area, 3-6 inches southeatsern MA. A mix with rain may hold accumulations down under 3 inches outer Cape and Islands. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod region.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with any snow ending. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs middle 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)…
Milder with only a slight risk of spotty rain March 24, leading to fair and warmer weather March 25-26. Cooling trend and becoming unsettled March 27-28.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
Progressive pattern of frequent changes still looks likely with variable temperatures and at least a couple threats of precipitation.