10:54PM
Before you say “hey it’s not gonna be hot”, I put the word “heat” in quotes because Tuesday night is going to feel like a mid summer’s night, very warm, humid, but with the addition of strong wind and a round of heavy rain. What’s causing all this? A cold front, ambling its way west to east, a push of warm, tropical air ahead of it, cooler & drier air moving in behind it. Further south (Carolinas, portions of Mid Atlantic, etc.) may see severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes, but a stabilizing influence of the southerly wind off the Atlantic, and less favorable upper level conditions, will preclude any serious severe weather. However, conditions are favorable for strong wind gusts from the south, with gusts over 40 MPH possibly causing some wind damage.
Back to the rain for a moment… The forecast area will not see all that much during the day, just a round of light rain or showers during the afternoon Tuesday as the leading edge of the warm sector moves across the region. By evening we blast into the warm sector and the temperature does not fall, and if anything it goes up into the 70s after having struggled slowly through the 60s during the day. Although it will turn quite humid, you won’t feel it as you would on a calm summer night, thanks to the wind. But this humidity will be the fuel for a band of heavy rain which will come across the region from west to east during the overnight hours (early Wednesday morning), exiting the coast as the morning commute gets underway. Any slowing of this line will mean a greater impact on the commute with reduced visibility and road flooding. Cape Cod will see the heaviest activity during the morning hours. A final burst of strong wind may accompany this line as it arrives.
As Wednesday goes by, we’ll see drier air working in from the west, breaking clouds, some sun, but also the slight risk of a few additional showers.
The front will sit not far offshore, so any ripple of low pressure could toss clouds and showers back toward the coast, and this may happen at least over Cape Cod on Thursday. Most locations should see dry weather Thursday and Friday with a narrow area of high pressure.
As mentioned on the previous discussion, a large scale trough will set up over the Midwest, sending pieces of energy toward the east. Some of this energy may result in a few showers by next weekend. We’ll also have to watch the moisture still lingering offshore as it may want to try to get involved. It is too early to tell how this will unfold, so the weekend forecast will be low to medium confidence with generalized wording.
Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…
OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Cloudy with periods of light rain or showers in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH eventually gusting over 30 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and muggy. Showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region mainly after midnight. Temperature rising to 70-75. Wind S 15-25 MPH gusting 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and over higher elevations, may shift to SW and W briefly with arrival of heaviest rain, then diminishing and becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers ending west to east early but some heavy showers and possible thunder lingering over Cape Cod during the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny later morning through afternoon with isolated showers. Temperature cooling into the 60s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 51. High 66.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 72.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 55. High 75.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 70.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 69.