9:03AM

STORM…
Most of the analysis on this was done on the previous entry and it is not necessary to repeat it here. The only real change that was not apparent yesterday is a little more mid-storm warm air intrusion aloft as the center likely comes several miles closer to the coast than the consensus track had previously. Tiny difference in track, bigger difference in what falls from the sky. This means that we still see rain with higher elevation mix/snow to start but the rain/snow line also will have sleet involved in it and will oscillate a little more between the I-495 and I-95 belts before finally heading coast-ward as the storm departs. It all gets out of here from south to north tonight.

Accumulation break-down: You know the timing, here are the amounts expected.
6+ inches snow confined to higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA westward, 3-6 inches elsewhere mainly west of I-495 with some of this possibly cut down by sleet, and under 3 inches most areas east of I-495 including northwestern RI and southeastern NH where the most flip-flopping will take place. Expecting mainly rain from Cape Ann to Boston on the immediate coast and across most of southeastern MA including Cape Cod, and eastern and southern RI. These areas may see brief mix/snow at the end of the storm with no accumulation. KEEP IN MIND: The phrase “under 3 inches” does not mean “3 inches”. It means less than 3. When seeing anything with numbers, don’t focus on just the number, but the description with it, and if you see a range, don’t focus on just the top number, but keep the range in mind.

THANKSGIVING / WEEKEND…
Weak disturbance brings clouds and a few snow showers along with blustery winds for the holiday on Thursday. Other than brief lower visibility in a few snow showers, not expecting any travel troubles. But please watch for icy untreated surfaces especially in the morning! The rest of the holiday weekend goes this way: Cold Friday with some coastal snow showers from NH into eastern MA due to a disturbance, sun to clouds Saturday and clouds to sun Sunday as we undergo a warming trend.

EARLY NEXT WEEK…
Cold front passes Monday, no big deal. High pressure builds in Tuesday with a bit of a chill but nothing too significant.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain southeastern areas, snow northwestern higher elevations, and a combination of rain/sleet/snow in between. SEE ABOVE for accumulations. Temperatures fall to the lower 30s well northwest of Boston, middle to upper 30s most areas, some lower 40s hanging on in coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast.
TONIGHT: Precipitation ends south to north as the rain/mix/snow line finally heads east. Lows upper 20s interior higher elevations, lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun possible. Scattered snow showers but no accumulation other than a potential brief dusting in a few locations. Highs upper 30s to around 40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers mainly eastern NH and coastal MA overnight.
Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers possible mainly eastern MA through midday with minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 15. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clouds to run. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 40.

9:24AM

A very interesting set-up, coming out of unseasonable warmth to the threat of significant snow (for some areas) on what is essentially and somewhat arguably the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday). You’re going to either hear or take part in great analysis over the next 24-36 hours so I’m going to take the streamlined route in the discussion here and expand upon it with you all in the comments.

First, today, another very mild day by November standards, though sun will be limited for a while due to lots of high cloudiness streaming northward, it should shine brighter a little later as clouds thin out. But these clouds will thicken back up tonight in advance of a low pressure area developing along a frontal boundary just offshore. This system will be propelled northeastward rather rapidly. With departing warm and moist air to feed the system, and arriving cold air to set up contrast, we have a short-lived by volatile set-up, complicated further by the fact that its passage by southeastern New England will take place on the eve of Thanksgiving, presenting all kinds of complexities regarding both air and road travel. As for the storm itself, it will be moving very rapidly, arriving precipitation-wise during the morning and midday and departing by around midnight. It’s what happens in that 12+ hour period that is critical. We know that it should start as rain in most areas except probably mix to immediate snow in higher elevations of central MA. And in this area it will remain generally snow, where it is likely that the most will fall, which is over 6 inches of snow. This will likely include the tricky I-90/I-84 area which is elevated, and congested on a dry weekend day outside of the holidays at times. Potential for major traffic nightmare here. It’s also quite likely that the immediate coast and down across southeastern MA, coastal RI, and Cape Cod and the Islands will remain as mostly rain, possibly mixing later in the storm as steadiest precipitation is ready to depart. It’s the whole middle section, from Boston through Metro West down into RI and up into southeastern NH and interior northeastern MA that is the most tricky. The most reliable guidance suggest marginal temperatures for the majority of the event, which means at any given time it can be raining, snowing, or both. A cop out? Not at all. It’s that marginal. We’ll just have to see how the event unfolds. There is the potential for some heavier banding features associated with the storm during its passage which would tilt the balance more toward snow where they set up. So the forecast amounts are highly subject to change in this belt. See below for those amounts…

Once the storm gets out of here, and that will happen fairly rapidly from southwest to northeast in the later evening of Wednesday. By Thanksgiving morning, it’s gone, and that day itself is going to feature a gusty breeze, lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a few spotty snow showers with some lingering low level moisture, at least through midday.

Friday looks fair, breezy, and cold as high pressure moves in. Saturday will feature increasing clouds as a warm front approaches, and this front may produce a touch of light snow Saturday night (uncertain depending on movement of its associated disturbance and available moisture). For now it looks like a cold front will follow this up later Sunday, allowing Sunday to be milder ahead of the front. Again, timing is a little uncertain this far out. The front may still be in the vicinity Monday which may keep clouds and some threat of precipitation in the region. Plenty of time to look at that.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Limited sun with lots of high clouds morning. More sun with less high clouds this afternoon. Highs in the 60s through midday cooling into the 50s this afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s from southern NH to Cape Cod. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain develops south to north morning-midday, except mix/snow in highest elevations well west and northwest of Boston. Rain/snow line moves slowly eastward but mix/snow may also develop spontaneously closer to I-95 later in the day. Temperatures cooling through 30s northwest of Boston, from lower 40s into 30s Boston southeastward. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow northwest of Boston, mix or snow immediate Boston area southward to interior RI, mix or rain interior southeastern MA and coastal RI, and mostly rain coastal southeastern MA to Cape Cod, all ending from southwest to northeast by or shortly after midnight. Snow accumulation 6 inches or more in higher elevations central MA into southwestern NH, 3-6 inches most other interior locations west of the I-95 belt but also into interior RI with the potential for spotty higher amounts, 1-3 inches on the east side of the I-95 belt ranging down to little or nothing in coastal locations. Lows upper 20s higher elevations well inland to middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun. Spotty light snow showers through midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Touch of light snow at night? Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

10:37PM

No, you don’t get to open the present yet, because it hasn’t even been purchased. What is that? Oh, you mean the Thanksgiving storm? Well, first of all, the storm will be gone by Thanksgiving, regardless of what its impacts are in southeastern New England. And as far as those impacts? Yes, it’s still too early to tell, as it is impossible to determine exact track and rate of development, which will be key, since this will indeed be a very fast-moving system not held up by any blocking, and working with limited cold air moving in from the west and also aloft. Why did I talk about this already? Because you would have scrolled down to find out my thoughts on it anyway, so I just saved you the trouble. So basically the forecast for this that I posted on the previous blog will stay the same for now and then as we move through Monday we can start to expand on it.

Speaking of Monday! There is a more imminent weather system to deal with. A large low pressure area cranking up and moving northeastward through the Great Lakes will send a warm front northeastward across this area early Monday, preceded by a decent slug of rain, nicely timed for your Monday morning drive, if you have to make one. But by afternoon, it will be gone, and just lots of clouds and a few spotty showers will be around. And at that time, the warm and relatively muggy air (for November) will be flowing in on a gusty southerly wind. But as “dramatic” as the warm frontal passage will be, the cold frontal passage will be so lame that you probably won’t even notice it, other than a very slow temperature drop later Tuesday. That day itself will actually still be quite mild and dry with sunshine and a few passing clouds.

Yay! I get to skip Wednesday because I already said a whole bunch of not much about that day. Seriously, though, with some uncertainty and with the importance of the day for travel, we will have to watch to see if snow becomes an issue later in the day or at night. More to come on this…

Thanksgiving: The storm will be gone, and whatever degree of impact we’ll be recovering from, the holiday itself will present a blustery chill with clouds breaking for sun. This colder trend will continue right through Black Friday and Thanksgiving Weekend. We’ll be watching for a weak clipper type system that may blow through the region at some point (timing uncertain but will guess late Saturday to early Sunday for now) with some snow showers.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing southwest to northeast after 3AM. Temperatures rising into the 50s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with rain, moderate to heavy at times, pushing through the region southwest to northeast in the morning. Mostly cloudy with spotty rain showers in the afternoon. Muggy. Highs 65-70. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting back to S 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease and spotty rain showers dissipate. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, gusting over 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunshine with passing clouds. Highs around 60 by midday, cooling through 50s in the afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH through early afternoon, diminishing later in the day.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain coast, rain/snow inland late day, ending overnight as snow inland and mix/rain coast. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clouds and some sun. Windy. Low 30. High 40.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Risk of snow showers late. Low 25. High 35.
SUNDAY: Clouds to sun. Risk of snow showers early. Low 25. High 35.

7:28PM

About half way through the weekend as I write this update, and not a whole lot of change at this time. Of course, media is already jumping all over a potential rain/snow threat for the Northeast for the day before Thanksgiving into early Thanksgiving morning, and while I acknowledge there is something to watch there, there is the matter of some weather to affect southeastern New England before that time. Though I am well aware that this is a huge travel week, trying to get detailed regarding the midweek threat would be a waste of time, as there are far too many uncertainties to allow one a clear enough look at things to make a confident forecast. Regarding that, I’ll play it low-key with moderate confidence but leaving the door open to significant tweaking as that time nears. In the mean time, milder air is coming in as Saturday night rolls on, and lots of clouds and even patchy showers of rain are possible. It has become mild enough for rain versus snow, as milder air has been coming in above during the day and finally at the surface overnight. By Sunday, the milder air will become more established and expect a day of sun mixed with clouds and a gusty breeze. A significant, large sized storm system is going to move northeastward through the Great Lakes on Monday and a large lobe of energy on the eastern side of it will lift through southeastern New England with rain late Sunday night and Monday morning. Most of this rain should be out of the way, though clouds will remain dominant, Monday afternoon, with very mild air. A cold front will sweep eastward across the region on Tuesday but with limited moisture to work with, so there will just be some patchy clouds around. Beyond that, the front will be the pathway for developing low pressure off the US Southeast Coast. As has been the thinking for a while, I do expect this to remain a largely open, fast-moving wave of low pressure though it may rapidly start to intensify while passing southeast to east of this area. The question of exact track and impact will not be answered for some time yet, so for now will just forecast some rain/snow for a period of time Wednesday night, ending early Thanksgiving Day. It does look like a chilly interlude to end Thanksgiving week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures rising slowly from upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely by dawn. Lows in the 40s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 50.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible rain/mix coast, snow/mix inland at night. Low 30. High 45.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

12:17AM

After a somewhat milder Thursday we’re back in the relative deep freeze (as far as November goes) for today, but the temperatures will do a swing thing heading back up in a big way between early Saturday and late Monday, which as much as a 55 degree temperature rise possible. The transition will feature wet weather (Sunday night and Monday morning). Tuesday will still be mild, though not as warm as Monday, and a couple cold fronts will then drop the temperature back toward normal as Thanksgiving approaches. The wildcard will be storm development off the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week. At this time it looks like most if not all of this will remain offshore, which would be favorable for pre-holiday travel. The holiday itself still looks dry this far in advance. And with that being day 7 right now, we’ll stop there, and expand on that and look forward into Black Friday and Thanksgiving Weekend in upcoming posts.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s, closest to 30 in higher elevations northwest of Boston, closest to 40 over Cape Cod. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows around 35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Highs around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain AM. Breaking clouds PM. Low 48. High 68.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 46. High 54.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 46.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

2:00AM

The next push of early-season Arctic air will arrive later today as a cold front comes through, announcing itself only by way of a gusty breeze. And yes it is Arctic air, by definition, based on its origin. Keep in mind the time of year and that the magnitude of the cold is relative to the season. The core of this push of cold air will cross southeastern New England Friday, which will be bright but breezy and quite cold. We are still looking at a moderating trend for the weekend with a sunny Saturday and less-bright Sunday, a much milder by wet (at times) Monday, then a few rain showers but continued mild Tuesday as a cold front approaches. By Wednesday, this front will be pushing offshore and we cool to near seasonable levels with dry weather for the day-before-Thanksgiving travel. A sneak peek ahead based on reliable guidance indicates a dry and cool Thanksgiving holiday. A more comprehensive outlook for travel and holiday weekend weather will be posted in a couple days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Early clouds depart Cape Cod, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty shifting to W during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows around 20 northwest of Boston to around 30 Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

7:30AM

Sufficiently chilled yet? It’s not the Polar Vortex, it’s the Great Lake Monster, or whatever name the media will decide to give the “storm” that caused mammoth snow totals in fairly narrow bands on the lee of the Great Lakes, especially just south of Buffalo NY. To expand on that briefly, most of you know that Great Lakes snow bands are nothing new. This particular setup was just very intense, because of the magnitude of the cold so early in the season (easy to make snow) and the warmth of the water the air was passing over (more available moisture). Add them together and the result is obvious.

So, back to our weather here in southeastern New England. There is not much to add to the previous discussion. We have one cold core moving by today, with a brief and slight moderation coming Thursday as a disturbance pushes a weak warm front through the area in the overnight hours tonight with a few snow showers possible. But as the disturbance passes by to the north, its cold front will quickly sweep through the region with nothing more than a few clouds and an isolated snow shower possible, but more importantly sending another cold core across the area for Friday, along with wind.

The weekend warm-up: Yes, it is going to warm up. You won’t notice it first thing Saturday as it will be quite cold, but during the day, with less wind, moderation will begin, and a few clouds will move in. By Sunday, it will be much milder along with lots of clouds as a more solid southwesterly flow takes over.

Early next week will be mild as well, but with occasional wet weather, as broad low pressure moves through the Great Lakes.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny, with high clouds showing up in the west later in the day. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clouding over west to east before midnight, a few snow showers shortly after midnight but most areas dry, then clearing west to east around dawn. Lows in the 20s north and west of Boston but remaining in the 30s to the southeast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow shower in a few locations in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 55.

10:43PM

The next 5 days will feature cold and wind, along with mainly dry weather, as a broad low pressure trough moves slowly eastward across central to eastern Canada and the adjacent US Midwest to Northeast. The only precipitation threats will be from a disturbance moving along in the westerly flow that may deliver some snow showers in the early hours of Thursday, and a few stray lake effect snow showers from the Great Lakes that may survive the long trip over the mountains of NY and western New England – though this is only a slight risk. By the time we get to late in the weekend and the start of next week, a new weather pattern will emerge, and it will be a shift to mild weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Temperatures falling from the 50s to near 40 Cape Cod, 40s to near 30 elsewhere except some upper 20s north and west of Boston. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Watch for icy spots on ground areas that don’t dry quickly enough before freezing up.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill in the teens.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with snow showers early, then sunny. Low 25. High 40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 45. High 60.

11:07PM

The week starts wet, then goes cold, and ends with a milder trend getting underway.

Low pressure will ride up the East Coast Monday but the center of it will likely cut inland and put southeastern MA and RI into a warm sector with lots of wind by late Monday. But any warm air that floods up into that region will not hang around long, for as that low pulls away by early Tuesday, it will drag a cold front through followed by a secondary trough, with lots of wind and a significant temperature drop during Tuesday. The core of this cold will be here on Wednesday, a dry day with well below normal temperature. A disturbance will pass through during Thursday with a few clouds and perhaps a snow shower, but it looks like it will be a fast-moving, moisture-starved system, serving to just reinforce the cold (and more wind) for Friday. Once we reach the weekend, in some ways it may resemble the weekend that’s just ending, with a breezy, bright, cold Saturday, and a milder Sunday with somewhat less sunshine. This will be signaling a significant change in the pattern as we head toward Thanksgiving week, but more will be said about this in the next few days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as brief snow/ice north central MA and southwestern NH. Midnight to 3AM lows 30-40 from NW to SE with a slight rise in temperature toward dawn. Wind calm then becoming light SE to S.
MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Patchy fog. Temperatures rising to 45-55, mildest southeastern MA and RI. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH especially southeastern MA and RI.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with best chance of rain north central MA to south central NH and a few rain showers elsewhere through early evening, then a band of showers and possible thunderstorms sweeping west to east through the region late evening and offshore overnight, clouds breaking as rain ends. Temperatures rising to 55-65 most areas, warmest southeastern MA and RI, into late evening before falling back through the 40s to 30s overnight from west to east. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts over southeastern MA and RI before shifting to W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts all areas overnight.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s through midday then falling through 30s. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Passing snow shower? Low 25. High 40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 50.

I’ve weighed all the factors, many of which we can chat about in the comments section. I’ve come up with an educated guess for how the weather will behave during the Winter of 2014-2015 in southeastern New England. I think one of the major players this Winter will be the above normal early snowcover in Siberia, which tends to lead to more periods of negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. I also think a fairly strong Pacific jet stream, which tends to try to flood the Lower 48 with milder air, will be a factor. A wildcard is the emergence, or lack thereof, of El Nino, which was expected last Winter, but did not show, and is expected still, but has been basically a no-show again. I believe eventually we may sneak into a very weak El Nino episode that may have a very short life span.

Putting all this together with the other indices that are important in determining weather patterns, I have come up with this outlook for the Winter.

Winter overall (December through March): Temperature slightly above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall slightly below normal.

Breakdown by month…

December: Tendency for AO/NAO to be alternating between weakly negative and weakly positive, a bit of a see-saw pattern, stronger Polar jet stream, weaker Subtropical jet stream, and a lack of phasing. Expecting the mildest part of the month, relative to normal, to be the first 10 days, with a colder trend for mid month and a milder trend at month’s end. Temperature near to slightly above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal.

January: Strong split flow, dominant Polar jet stream with moderate to strongly negative AO/NAO, but a little weaker than average Subtropical jet stream due to the lack of emergence of El Nino. A milder trend that comes at the end of December continues to early January before a cold pattern takes over. NAO strongly negative enough to result in dry weather rather than stormy weather. Snow would come from fast-moving Polar jet stream short waves. Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal. This will be the month of the cold outbreaks.

February: AO/NAO starts out with a negative bias then trends more positive. Still a split flow pattern but Subtropical jet becomes more active and Polar jet weakens a little. Phasing of streams, which had been not happening too often, happens a few times and brings an increased risk of storminess, but at the same time less intrusion of Arctic air from Canada. Temperature above normal. Precipitation near to above normal. Snowfall above normal. This will be the month with the greatest risk of major snowfall, despite it being considerably “milder” than January.

March: The pattern of February may spill over into early March but then retrogression sends Winter out West as the East warms and dries ahead of seasonal normal. That means Winter departs quickly in New England. Temperature above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal.

So, how much snow will Boston have this Winter? The average is 44 inches. They have had above normal snowfall during the last 2 Winters. The last time they had 3 consecutive Winters with above normal snowfall? The Winters of 1975-1976, 1976-1977, and 1977-1978. I think this may be a season where some of the excitement comes from watching that number to see if we reach #3 again, but we ultimately fall just short, with 41.1 for Logan Airport, the majority of it coming in the month of February.

That’s my best guess!

8:34AM

The discussion is basically the same as the previous so will leave it that and only add that a very minor surprise this morning was a few stray snow showers surviving all the way from the Great Lakes to the southwestern suburbs of Boston – no accumulation, only a few flakes in the air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds and a very light snow shower southwest of Boston into mid morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 35-42, coldest in higher elevations inland. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32 by midnight, may rise slightly later. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to SW.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds with a very slight chance of a few snow flakes morning, then partial sun by afternoon. Highs 43-50, mildest southwest of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, some mix possible well inland. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Rain or snow shower late day? Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.
FRIDAY: Sun and high clouds. Low 25. High 40.

7:33AM

Not a blast, but a slow easing into the coldest air of the season so far, which you still must wait until later Tuesday to see arrive. Still not a whole lot of change to the forecasts previously posted. Here though I can offer you a little more detail regarding the coming weekend. First, we get rid of the small rain to snow event, which as of the time of this writing, is basically over everywhere except rain drops and a few snow flakes on Cape Cod. Where snow did accumulate, we saw generally a coating to an inch or so, mainly on unpaved surfaces. That will melt today as the sun returns and the ground is still relatively warm. The day will turn mostly sunny as dry air moves in and the developing storm moves away. It will be chilly, but not too cold, though the breeze that develops will give the air a nip. Look for a cold night tonight under a clear sky and active breeze. The weekend will be a bit of a split, with lots of sunshine Saturday as high pressure dominates, though still breezy as there is a squeeze between high pressure centered to the southwest and low pressure more intense but far away to the northeast, and then expect a period of cloudiness and perhaps an isolated snow shower as warmer air moves in aloft. The cloudiness may actually decrease a little bit later in the day. Things are still looking the same for the first half of next week, unsettled Monday as low pressure rides up the East Coast but bringing mild enough air for a mainly rain event (still watching for some mix inland), then the coldest air of the season so far by later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, into Thursday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clearing by late morning then mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s inland, lower 30s coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated light snow showers through early afternoon. Partly sunny later afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, some mix possible well inland. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Sun/clouds. Snow shower late? Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

7:31AM

As a large scale trough centered to the west tries to press eastward at times, colder shots of air will be introduced into southeastern New England. One such shot has already arrived in the wake of yesterday’s mild air. A second shot will arrive early Friday behind a disturbance which will be in the process of rapidly developing as it moves by the area, just offshore, overnight tonight to early Friday. This will bring a period of rain changing to snow, which will not hang around long, but will produce some minor accumulation. The problem: timing. Just enough snow may accumulate on some roads to make for briefly slippery travel for the Friday morning commute. Most of the accumulation from the event will be on unpaved surfaces, where up to an inch or 2 is possible. Most areas will see less than this, and a few higher elevations can see slightly more. By later Friday morning, it’s done and offshore, leaving the remainder of the day brighter, breezy, and chilly. This represents a slightly stronger version of the disturbance than was expected yesterday. Still relatively low-impact, but given time of year and time of day, something we cannot ignore.

The remainder of the outlook is basically unchanged. Dry and chilly Saturday with high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the northeast of the region, bringing a gusty and chilly breeze across the region. Low pressure approaches later Sunday and then takes most of the day to pass through the region Monday as strung-out energy along a boundary. This still looks like largely a rain event, but some mix/snow cannot be ruled out over some interior areas so it will be watched. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a shot of the coldest air of the season so far is expected, but it may take until later Tuesday to actually arrive behind another front.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine with a few high clouds through midday then increasing high clouds and less sun later. Highs around 50. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain developing west to east late evening, changing to snow west to east overnight, but only mixing Cape Cod. Lows around 30 interior higher elevations, 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with snow/mix ending west to east by mid morning except later morning Cape Cod. Snow accumulation from traces to a slushy inch Cape Cod and immediate coast, around 1 to possibly 2 inches mainly unpaved surfaces elsewhere, locally over 2 inches in interior higher elevations. Sun/cloud mix remainder of day. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain, some mix possible interior. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

7:20AM

As the hype-style news stories and headlines go on, we’ll just stick to forecasting and talking about the weather here. I do realize that some very cold air is heading down into parts of the USA and that some rather significant snowfall has already taken places in portions of the northern Plains to far northern Midwest, but this type of thing is not unprecedented, even if it does have a significant impact on the region it occurs. And just because somewhere in the northern Plains got dumped on with over a foot of snow doesn’t automatically mean that exact event is coming right to where you live, despite what many media will push you toward believing. So, what is really most likely to happen here during the next week, and why? Read on…

First, the fog. Temperature and dew point being the same is saturated air and in a situation with calm wind can lead to dense fog, which formed in much of southeastern New England overnight and will slowly dissipate during the day today. The low overcast with it will also try to break up as the day goes on. A storm passing east of the region will be too far away to have any significant impact. Also a cold front will be approaching from the west but will not have a whole lot of moisture to work with, so we’ll be left in the middle with mild and slowly drying air. Just a few rain showers may survive along the front to get into areas mainly north and west of Boston toward the end of the day. Some areas will see more sun than others by later in the day.

Tonight, the front will push through and will bring the first slug of colder air in. Thursday will feel quite a bit cooler than today, and will be. But another trough will cross the region Thursday night with a few snow showers as even colder air comes in, leading to a windy and chilly day Friday with sun and passing clouds.

The weekend will start bright and cool Saturday as high pressure dominates, but a low pressure area will then approach from the southwest later Sunday which will probably start bright, finish cloudy, and turn wet at night. It should be mild enough for mostly rain from the next system, but with colder air very nearby we’ll have to keep an eye on that for changes. The energy from that system should be strung out enough so that Monday will likely be a cloudy and damp day. But by Monday night another push from the west will kick that all out of here and introduce the coldest air of the season so far by Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Dense fog slowly dissipating with low clouds lingering during the morning and midday. Breaking low clouds with at least partial sun possible this afternoon. Slight chance of showers mainly NW of Boston later in the day. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 30s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night, possibly mix at start. Low 25. High 44.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 44.
TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Windy. Low 25. High 38.

7:27AM

Quick forecast update. Full discussion on next post later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle after midnight. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle and light rain through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy later but with a clearing trend western areas late. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 30. High 44.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/snow at night. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 45.