2:41AM

What’s up this week? Well the pattern is still volatile (look it up). A mild Monday? Yes. A cold front will slide through at night with a few showers and set up a bright, dry, breezy Tuesday. By Wednesday, a frontal system will string itself out just south of New England and a series of low pressure waves will move along it through early Friday, resulting in spells of unsettled weather. The 2nd wave on Thursday (moved up a little from my earlier thinking that it would be Friday) will probably produce the most rain. Might someone see the first flakes of snow? You probably heard that rumor already, but it isn’t really a rumor, because indeed things may come together in some areas (most likely northern Worcester County) that Thursday’s system ends with a mix of rain and snow or even just some wet snow. These conditions will be over the Boston area Friday morning so if any showers are leftover, they could in fact be in the form of snow showers. Normally we wouldn’t care so much about this 5 days in advance but when its your chance for the first flakes of the season you look at it a little differently. For most people that novelty wears off quickly (not for me). And even though I feel we remain in the overall mild regime into November, we are going to feel a hint of winter in the air at the end of this week, so get ready for that, especially if you have outdoor plans Saturday night like I do…………………….

Oh and this is not my official forecast or anything but one of the computers says there is a chance of snow showers on Halloween. Don’t get too excited, one of the other ones says fair and mild! They don’t know. We have a week to figure that out.

Here is your updated Boston area forecast for the week ahead! Have a great week everybody!

TODAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. High 50-55. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 40. High 52.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers early then clearing. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

SUNDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 52.

1:44PM

Once again Mother Nature shows who’s boss and screws most of us forecasters over with an inversion and a deck of stratocumulus obliterating the sunny sky that was over far eastern MA. Clouds rule for the afternoon. The rest of the forecast is remaining unchanged  for now, except tweaking Thursday’s sky and high temperature, until I can examine things this evening, at which time The Week Ahead will be posted!

Have a great afternoon everyone!

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Temperature steady in the 50s. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-6o. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 44. High 56.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain. Low 38. High 49.

1:39AM

Here is an updated on the forecast only. No major changes are being made to the previous forecast. A full discussion and week ahead forecast will be posted on Sunday.

I will be at the Southern New England Weather Conference all day today (Saturday). Looking forward to seeing my fellow meteorologists and weather enthusiasts that will be there!

http://www.sneweatherconf.org/index.shtml

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. High 59-64. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 38-43. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 57-62. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers at night. Low 42. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 44. High 56.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 60.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain. Low 38. High 49.

8:56PM

Drier weather will dominate the next few days behind a departing storm system. Upper level low pressure west to north of the region will spin some clouds into areas mainly well west and north of Boston but the Boston area itself should see a fair amount of sunshine Friday & Saturday and full sunshine on Sunday. Temperatures will be more seasonable through the weekend.

Mild and fair weather is expected Monday ahead of a frontal system, which should send showers across the region Monday night or early Tuesday. Brief drying is expected during Tuesday before a wave of low pressure threatens the region with wet weather Wednesday.

Still following some potential storminess later in the week. For now I am not going to really make any changes to the most recent forecast.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 59-64. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 38-43. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 57-62. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers at night. Low 42. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 44. High 56.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 60.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain. Low 38. High 49.

2:29AM

As the rains of overnight head off to the north, a slot of drier air will be moving in from the south today with showers ending, a clearing sky, gusty breeze, and very mild temperatures. This will be occurring as low pressure passes west of the region.

This low, like it’s predecessor, will drift northeastward and finally pass well north of the area later Friday, shifting the winds around to west and bringing in somewhat cooler air. High pressure will control the surface with a generally dry weekend expected, but some weak low pressure troughing above may promote some cloudiness, especially Saturday.

Looking ahead, a mild start to next week should be followed by a wet day around Wednesday and a transition to chilly weather at the end of the week. It is far to early to be sure if it will dry out behind the initial wet weather or we will see additional storminess.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Through Dawn – Episodes of showers, some heavy, and possible thunderstorms. Dawn to 10AM – Mostly to variably cloudy with a few lingering showers. After 10AM – Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH diminishing to calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 48. High 58.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 55.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain. Low 39. High 49.

5:32PM

The overall outlook has not changed too much since my last post. The only tweaks are to delay the arrival of rain slightly on Wednesday, and possibly add more cloudiness to the Saturday forecast.

The makings of the storm for Wednesday and Wednesday night are a combo of energy from the Midwest moving east and low pressure and tropical moisture moving north from near Florida. All of this rides up the East Coast during the next couple days. The eventual main low center will pass west of the Boston area, allowing a dry slot to move in on Thursday, putting an end to the rain and possibly resulting in some clearing. I’ll lean optimistic for Thursday afternoon at this time.

I still expect the end of the week to be generally fair and cooler but some upper level troughing may allow for more cloudiness than might have been expected. I’m still working on those details and we’ll fine-tune the late week forecast as we go through the week. In the mean time you’ll find a fairly generic and safe forecast for the late week period.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to start then clouds return later. Low 45-50. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from south to north during the afternoon hours. Heavy rain may move in from the south in time for the late afternoon rush hour, the greatest chance of this being south of Boston. High 55-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times, tapering to showers from south to north. Slight chance of thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Low 50-55. Wind E 15-30 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of showers during the morning. Becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 65-70. Wind SE  10-20 MPH shifting to SW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 60.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 58.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 59.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 62.

11:51PM

An active pattern will continue with plenty of changes during the week ahead. Despite the action, we will see a fair amount of good weather!

Here’s the breakdown:

Monday… Low pressure that gave us the windy weekend is still spinning over eastern Canada and will produce a gusty breeze but fairly mild temperatures. Showers that move through in the overnight hours will be gone by dawn and so will most of the clouds, with only a few clouds during the day.

Tuesday…A complex area of low pressure developing to the west and south of New England will start to send clouds into the region. Earlier, I thought there could be some rain breaking out well in advance of this system, but current indications are that it will remain dry during the day.

Wednesday…A storm system riding up the East Coast will pull plenty of tropical moisture into it and produce a healthy amount of rain. Minor flooding is possible.

Thursday…The storm will be on its way out, but will continue to influence the region with gusty winds, a sun/cloud mix, and a risk of a shower. Cooler air will still be back to the west and northwest so this day will be mild.

Friday…Low pressure continues to move away, high pressure moves in, and a gusty breeze blows between the 2 systems, pulling chilly air into New England.

Weekend…High pressure should be in control with beautiful Autumn weather.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy.  Showers moving through west to east then ending by dawn. Low 51-56. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 64-69. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 61-66. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy.  Rain likely. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 58.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 59.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

7:36PM

A broad area of low pressure passing north of New England spreads its large circulation across the area, resulting in windy weather this weekend and even Monday. Though we are not seeing the unseasonably warm temperatures of last weekend, it is still on the mild side for this time of year. A disturbance passing through the region today created a few passing showers, though a few of them were briefly heavy. Even some rainbows were spotted as later-afternoon showers were departing and the sun broke through the clouds as it lowered in the western sky. Another disturbance will head across southern New England late Sunday night the main threat of showers being in the overnight hours.

Looking ahead, a complex frontal system and a couple of low pressure areas are expected to bring unsettled weather to the region Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving away later in the week when a drier, chilly shot of air is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 47-52. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 62-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers from midnight to dawn. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 49. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 51. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 63.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 56.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 58.

10:56AM

TODAY: Sunny start then clouds developing during the day, and more moving in from the west later in the day with a slight chance of an isolated showers especially west of Boston. High 62-67. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Low 43-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 46. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Chance of showers late. Low 51. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 48. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

5:24PM

Updated forecast for the Boston area…

THROUGH SUNSET: Areas of showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, but also breaking clouds from the SSW before sunset with a glimpse of sun not impossible. Temperature in the 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11PM. Low 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 15-20 MPH late.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then clouds developing during the day, and more moving in from the west later in the day with a slight chance of an isolated showers especially west of Boston. High 62-67. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 43-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 46. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Chance of showers late. Low 51. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 48. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

2:55AM

Updated forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon, with some heavy downpours possible. Greatest chance for heavy downpours will take place between 3PM & 6PM but also cannot rule out breaks in the clouds and even a hint of sun in the western sky before it sets… High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers early. Low 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 62-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 43-48. Wind W 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 62-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 46. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Low 51. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 48. High 60.

1:06AM

This late night and early morning has produced an amazing spectacle: A 22 degree lunar halo that was text book perfect with the Full Hunters Moon shining through a deck of cirrostratus clouds. Just inside the left edge of the halo sat the planet Jupiter at midnight. I’ll never forget the view as I stood outside looking up at this.

Now, we are about to pay a bit of a toll for all the great weather we have just gone through: Three unsettled days. It could be worse. No severe weather is expected, and flooding should be pretty much a non-threat except in a few areas that see some heavier rain over nearly saturated ground. I still do not expect this to be a widespread issue.

The unsettled stretch of weather will take place as a low pressure system from the south feeding on tropical moisture moves through the region, and a low pressure system from the west catches up with it all.

The better news is that this unsettled weather is expected to move away by the weekend, leaving us with sun and clouds, gusty winds, but mainly dry weather and seasonable to mild temperatures.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle near the coast during the afternoon and a slight chance of light rain mainly south and west of  Boston during the late afternoon hours. High 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 50-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain through early afternoon tapering off to showers later. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Low 55-60. Wind SE 10-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 64.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 67.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 65.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

4:50PM

I hope everybody in the New England area had a chance to enjoy the fantastic summer-like Columbus Day Weekend! I know I did. Boston smashed their record high of 82 on Sunday, setting a new high mark of 87. As of the writing of this blog, they are very warm once again today, at 85. But the big warmth is about to come to an end, replaced by cooler but still fairly mild air, as the overall above-normal temperature regime continues. I’m not expecting to see a return to summertime temperatures again, but they will continue to run warmer than normal overall for this week.

A back-door cold front will send cooler air into the region tonight and Tuesday, holding in place Wednesday. High pressure will initially remain in control with dry weather, but low pressure moving northward will first send clouds into the region on Wednesday followed by wet weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers may linger into Friday as a secondary system has to pass through. This should open the door to a fair, mild weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 48-53. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 65-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY: Rain likely. Low 53. High 66.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 55. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

3:00AM

Another quick update to the forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Sunny. High 82-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 50. High 63.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 61.

2:35PM

Just an update! No changes!

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Sunny. High 77-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.