DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

For those awake last evening in a good portion of the region you may have been witness to a beautiful and somewhat rare style of snowfall in this area. Now rare and snowfall has been used together this winter several times because of the lack of snowfalls in a very mild, nearly snowless winter pattern, but this is a different kind of rare snowfall – perfect hexagonal snowflakes falling in calm air from a sky that includes some clearing enough at one point to see the moon, Venus, and Jupiter shining brightly before they set. So both rare and a bit unique. This was the end portion of a snowfall event that even slightly over-performed model and meteorologist expectations, dropping a good 1/2 to 2 inches of low water content fluff over much of the region. This was due to relatively warmer air riding up and over a cold dome of air in place and the recipe was just there for it all to happen that way. This morning, a low level inversion results in some very spotty freezing and/or frozen drizzle, then later today, we may see some additional flakes from a passing low pressure area, the center of which will scoot just north of the region this afternoon, allowing us to warm up a little over yesterday’s chill. This system won’t produce much other than a rain or snow shower to the south, with most of the snow shower activity concentrated to the north of I-90. A few of these showers of snow may put down a quick new coating, briefly slicking up some roads and walks. The system is outta here this evening and a small area of high pressure will then build in overnight into Monday with dry weather. We’ll see clouds advancing during Monday, thickening up later in the day, ahead of a well-advertised winter storm system approaching. This one is going to be a light to moderate snowfall for our region. Model guidance tends to under-estimate the scope of the cold air hanging on with these systems, so I expect this to be a mainly snow event for the WHW forecast area, beginning late Monday night and lasting well into Tuesday, with just some potential for rain to become involved right on the South Coast / Cape Cod before the main precipitation ends Tuesday afternoon. The system won’t have much wind with it for our area as we will be between a primary low that travels into the Great Lakes and a secondary low that forms and moves out south of New England, with not that expansive a circulation, kind of an elongated system, stretched west-to-east. Exit this system Tuesday night, and in builds a small area of high pressure to bring fair weather for the first day of March. But the active pattern will roll on and another low pressure system will impact our region Thursday. Early indications are that this one is destined to have milder air in place for its arrival and take a track a little further north, with a mix/rain event more in the cards versus a snowy one, but at day 5 I’m not ready to lock that idea in just yet, so we’ll see how it goes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty freezing/frozen drizzle this morning. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind calm early, then SW-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with rain before ending South Coast. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland RI, MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Higher probability for the lower sides of the ranges to verify than the upper sides. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

We’ll have a couple of disturbances moving through this weekend with “minor” unsettled weather. The first one moves through from the west today with lots of clouds and eventually a couple areas of light snow, but no real accumulation expected other than maybe a brief coating here and there. The next system comes through from northwest to southeast on Sunday, with a low center passing just to our north. It’ll be a slightly milder day than today but still cold enough to support mostly snow showers, this time favoring areas north of I-90, again with minor accumulation at most. High pressure moves in Sunday night and Monday with fair weather. And then comes low pressure to impact the region with a winter storm threat. Primary low pressure moves into the Great Lakes via the Chicago area. Similar to the system earlier this week, this one will feature elongated low pressure and a redevelopment south of New England, moving eastward from there. With the primary low staying pretty much intact, we may be stuck a little bit in a no man’s land between the two low centers, which can result in lighter overall precipitation. That’s one scenario. Another is that the newer low is close enough to produce heavier bands of precipitation (likely snow) over portions of the region. So there’s definitely a good possibility of some decent snowfall amounts with that system. There may be a rain/snow line involved as well, which will be determined and fine-tuned. This system will wind down and move out later Tuesday and we’re currently looking at a small area of high pressure to bring March in with dry weather on Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow midday to mid afternoon west, mid to late afternoon further east – minor accumulation possible. Highs 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 11-18 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Good chance of snow, but may be mixed precipitation and/or rain is possible to the south. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ends, clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 2, 4, and 6. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Additional unsettled weather early in the period then a drying trend indicated with a northwesterly air flow overtaking the northeastern US. Temperatures near to below normal.

COMMENTARY

These final 5 days of February will remind many people why you don’t “call winter off” early. None of us have the “authority” to do that, based on the winter so far. Our individual perceptions may differ, but the fact remains, winter doesn’t end before it ends, and even the best forecasters can’t see far enough into the future to guarantee such a silly notion beyond a week or so, let alone a couple months. We best leave that to mother nature to decide. She’s been doing a pretty decent job at it since before we around watching. 😉

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Speaking of the final 5 days of February. Here they come! And they start out fairly harsh. Yesterday’s messy system was followed by a brief shower of freezing rain for many areas last night, even with thunder in some areas! A quick coating of glaze occurred with the passage of these where it was cold enough, and many areas have icy ground to start the day. We did see a bit of a temperature rise overnight though, helping to loosen up the ice and melt it a bit in many portions of the I-95 belt and southeastward, but off to the northwest it has stayed colder. The warmest part of the day is now, and soon, as a cold front goes by, the temperature will fall during the day, into the 20s in areas that are in the 30s, and through the 20s in areas that are already in the 20s, along with a pretty decent wind. Other than a brief snow shower possible with the front’s passing, expect dry weather during today. Tonight’s a cold one – single digit low temperature for most along with below zero wind chill, so bundle up for biting air and beware again of icy areas underfoot! The weekend features ok weather, but slightly unsettled. While it’s coldest Saturday and a bit milder Sunday, both days carry precipitation chances – with a few afternoon snow shower possible as a disturbance moves through the region Saturday afternoon, and a few snow showers (maybe rain showers toward the South Coast) on Sunday afternoon as a weak low pressure system moves quickly through the region. Then our attention turns to the potential winter storm early next week. Monday is “set-up” day behind the Sunday system as high pressure builds in with dry, chilly weather but increasing clouds. We’ve seen our guidance go from painting a picture of a blockbuster snow to a more “ordinary” one during the last several runs regarding the Monday night / Tuesday threat. I will say that it is the best opportunity we’ve had so far this winter of widespread snowfall, but that we still have some details to work out. An initial low is likely to move somewhere into the Great Lakes region, and its elongation and redevelopment details are going to determine what we end up with. There are still several scenarios on the table regarding the detailed outcome, so for now the wording for the day-5 forecast will be generic, and there will be a long period of fine tuning ahead over the next few days…

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds with a passing snow shower possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 28-35 early, then falling into and through the 20s. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers north, mix/rain shower south in the afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Good chance of snow, but may be mixed precipitation to the south. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 2 and 4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Additional unsettled weather including another precipitation threat around the March 6-8 window. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

We’re in the midst of a drawn-out period of unsettled weather. First was a burst of snow to sleet, some freezing rain (except South Coast rain where it was milder), as a warm front tried to push into the region. The snow area held on longer with a weaker warm intrusion aloft, and allowed a bit more in the way of accumulation further east (inside I-95) to the north of I-90. This frontal boundary doesn’t really make it far, and it just ends up heading back to the south today anyway as surface cold air drains down from the north behind an initial weak wave of low pressure that passed by here. Next comes the frozen / freezing drizzle that will occur today due to a low level inversion – cold air with a light northeasterly air flow trapped below a warmer southeasterly air flow not too far above that, which keeps the moisture trapped near the ground and results in little droplets of water – liquid that freezes on contact with surfaces, or just frozen and falls as little ice grains. We’ll still have some episodic bursts of snow and sleet to the north, sleet and freezing rain south, and non-freezing rain (well south). With most main surfaces treated, we shouldn’t see too much trouble on the roads, but any untreated walkways and stairways, etc., can be slick, so use caution if you have to be out there. The next phase comes as another low pressure wave and frontal boundary push through from west to east this evening, with a little more substantial precipitation – mainly sleet and some snow in southern NH and northern MA, freezing rain to the south, but again with temperatures probably just above freezing it may be just liquid rain right along the South Coast. This batch of precipitation skedaddles pretty quickly overnight and an arctic cold front will be coming through on Friday, possibly accompanied by a snow shower or snow squall. Luckily, a gusty wind and very low dew point will help surfaces dry off without too much icing, but any areas that don’t dry off will quickly ice over if they are not already frozen, as we see a temperature drop during the day. While this arctic shot will be tame in comparison to the one on February 3-4, you’ll still feel it, especially Friday night, with temperatures dipping to the single digits above zero, but wind chill readings going well below zero with the help of a busy northwesterly wind. While the breeze keeps up somewhat into Saturday, it will not be as strong or gusty, and with at least partial sun shining from a higher angle, despite temperatures being well below normal for highs, it will feel somewhat more tolerable to be outside. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers to traverse the region Saturday afternoon though as a disturbance comes through in the northwesterly air flow. Temperatures moderate on Sunday, back to about normal levels, and a weak clipper low will move quickly through the region during the afternoon and evening hours with a round or two of precipitation probable, most likely falling as snow, but possibly some mix/rain toward the South Coast, depending on the magnitude of the temperature moderation that day. In its wake, we’ll have a fair and seasonably chilly day on Monday, but clouds will already be on the increase before the day is over ahead of the next storm system in a continued active weather pattern…

TODAY: Cloudy. Freezing and/or frozen drizzle. Periods of snow/sleet north, sleet/freezing rain south with rain well south. Temperatures fall slightly to 26-33. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. A period of sleet and freezing rain, maybe just rain immediate coast, and may mix with snow higher elevations southwestern NH to north central MA with a minor accumulation (coating). Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early to mid morning clouds with a passing snow shower possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 30-37 early, then falling into and through the 20s. Wind N-NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain midday on. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats February 28, March 2, and March 4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

Additional unsettled weather including another precipitation threat around the March 6-8 window. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Take a breath. The sun shines this morning for a while, but we have a lot of “weather” on the way and many details to pin down in the coming days, and we get to work quickly. After a small area of high pressure departs, clouds come racing in ahead of a warm front, parented by an approaching low pressure area. While the surface front never has a chance to get very far north into New England – maybe just inland of the South Coast early Thursday, it warms significantly above us, so that precipitation that starts off as snow for much of the region this evening (except mix/rain South Coast) turns to sleet and rain, but that rain will be freezing rain where surface temperatures are cold enough, especially west and north of I-95. While the main area of precipitation exits with the initial low pressure wave moving along or just south of the South Coast early on Thursday, the surface boundary will actually sink southward and temperatures trend downward during the day. Low level moisture behind that low pressure wave means that frozen drizzle and freezing drizzle is possible anywhere the temperature is below the freezing point – which will be pretty much everywhere except the immediate coastline, so watch for slick travel / walking on untreated surfaces even without much precipitation occurring during Thursday, especially if it’s freezing drizzle which would produce a glaze (where frozen drizzle would not as it is essentially miniature sleet. A second low pressure wave comes along Thursday evening and night with another episode or two of precipitation, likely freezing rain and/or sleet except maybe just rain if temperatures hang above freezing near the coast. But it’s wise to plan for slick spot potential even here if temperatures are marginal because just a degree or two can make a difference between your foot meeting a wet stairway/walkway or an icy one. After wave number 2 exits, an arctic cold front goes through on Friday, maybe with a snow shower or two, and like Thursday, the temperature drops during the day, but more dramatically, along with an increasing northwesterly wind. This cold shot peaks Friday night, similar in timing but far less in magnitude than the one just 2 weeks prior. However, it’s still enough that wind chills will plunge to below zero with air temperatures getting into the single digits, so if you do have Friday night outdoor plans, be ready for that. Saturday will be a cold day as well, but with a bit less wind, and at least some sun, higher in angle this time of year, so it won’t feel as cold as the same air mass would in January. Some instability may help to produce a few passing snow showers that day. Sunday, temperatures moderate a little, but a clipper-type low pressure system moves quickly in and through the area during the afternoon and evening with a period of wintry precipitation – mostly snow it appears, but warm enough for some sleet and rain toward the South Coast, depending on the specific temperature profile for exact precip-type. Will fine-tune the Sunday details over the next few days…

TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice/rain arrives early, tapers toward dawn. Snow/sleet accumulation of up to 1 inch I-95 belt, up to 2 inches north central MA to southwestern NH, and some icing conditions away from coastline. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of frozen drizzle and freezing drizzle (maybe not freezing along the shoreline). Temperatures fall slightly to 26-33. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. A period of sleet and freezing rain, maybe just rain immediate coast, and may mix with snow higher elevations southwestern NH to north central MA with a minor accumulation (coating). Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady 27-34 early, then falling to 15-22 by late-day. Wind N-NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain midday on. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats around February 28 and March 2. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Additional unsettled weather including wintry precipitation opportunities around March 4 and March 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Lots of unsettled weather in the forecast now as the pattern shifts away from what had been a mild and dry one to a colder, wetter one. Today, a low pressure wave passing just south of our region has spread a swath of rain (South Coast) and snow (elsewhere) across the region to start the day, resulting in some minor snow accumulating mainly on unpaved surfaces where it’s snowing. This will taper off as that wave moves away this morning. A cold front will sweep eastward across there region from late afternoon through evening with another period of precipitation, shorter duration but a little heavier, so some additional snowfall accumulation is likely in southern NH and northern MA, especially away from the coast, with more of a mix/rain situation in the I-95 belt and eastward from there. But this exits quickly tonight and with partial clearing, temperatures drop below freezing, so watch for icy conditions on any untreated surfaces, even where rain fell. Wednesday will be a dry day, but with clouds re-thickening as a small area of high pressure gives way to another approaching low. This is the start of a 1-2 punch of precipitation, the first Wednesday night into early Thursday, the second late Thursday to very early Friday. The precipitation profile will be complex as 2 low pressure waves moves just south of our region. The first one starts as snow most areas, mix South Coast, then transitions to rain South Coast but sleet and freezing rain elsewhere as the surface is cold but it warms up aloft. Expect some tricky travel in many areas and especially untreated surfaces for the Thursday AM commute. Another round of precipitation, again predominantly sleet and freezing rain except rain closer to the South Coast where it stays above freezing, comes at the end of the day Thursday into the early hours of Friday before tapering off. As the second low pressure wave moves away, an arctic cold front will come through the region on Friday morning, perhaps with a few snow showers at times during the day, even behind the front, but most notably a turn to much colder and windy weather through Friday evening. Bitterly cold Friday night and early Saturday and only a modest recovery keeping it well below freezing for high temps Saturday, but with less wind, and sunshine, so feeling more tolerable with a higher sun angle at this time of year. Next low pressure area wastes no time moving in so it may be snowing again by sometime Saturday night…

TODAY: Overcast through mid morning with a period of snow, accumulating a coating to 1 inch on unpaved surfaces I-95 northwestward, with mix/rain to the south. Mostly cloudy afternoon – rain/snow showers return from the west late-day, snow showers mostly north of I-90 with rain showers south. Highs 38-45 by midday but may fall a bit in the afternoon. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow showers of 1/2 to 2 inches north central MA and interior southern NH and up to 1/2 inch northeastern MA to NH Seacoast, with rain showers mostly south of I-90. Partial clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouding over. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely, except possibly just rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Sleet/freezing rain except South Coast rain early morning. Additional snow/sleet/freezing rain may return late in the day. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain, maybe just rain for a while South Coast. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady 27-34 early, then falling to 15-22 by late-day. Wind NE backing to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sun followed by increasing high clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Low pressure impacts with snow/mix and maybe some rain (precipitation types to be sorted out when storm tracks are better known) February 26, February 28, March 2). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Additional unsettled weather including wintry precipitation opportunities around March 4 and March 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Complex, changing weather in a new weather pattern during this week… Rain has already exited Cape Cod after a disturbance brought some there overnight, and today, while being mainly cloudy, will also be mainly dry, other than the chance of a passing rain shower later with a cold front. Tuesday, a small, quick-moving system will approach from the west. Initially a wave of low pressure will ripped out just to our south bringing some rain to the South Coast, then later in the day a frontal boundary and the main system will swing through from west to east with a period of rain/mix/snow, rain most likely to the south, mix to snow to the north (southern NH and northern MA) where a small accumulation can occur. Exit this system at night with a break into Wednesday as a narrow sliver of high pressure moves across the region, but then we enter a stretch of unsettled weather later Wednesday through Thursday and into Friday as a pair of low pressure areas track eastward, passing just to our south. This will be a colder set-up than we’ve seen for many of our storm systems this winter, and we’ll be dealing with a variety of precipitation. Right now, the idea is that things get underway as snow late Wednesday except mix/rain South Coast, then with colder air hanging at the surface but warming aloft we see a sleet / freezing rain situation later Wednesday night into Thursday for much of the region, but perhaps warm enough for just rain South Coast. This breaks for a while as low number 1 exits, but then Thursday evening to early Friday low number 2 comes along with another swath of wintry precipitation, but again maybe some rain at first along the South Coast before ending as something frozen. All areas may end as snow showers Friday as the final low moves offshore, intensifies, and drags colder air in. Once we get to the end of Friday, the look and feel of mid winter will be dominant – something that we never really saw, except parts of the region for a brief time in late January.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH evening, N under 10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain possible South Coast in the morning. Rain/mix/snow arriving west to east afternoon, snow most likely southern NH and far northern MA where a coating to 1 inch of accumulation may occur, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Highs 38-45 by midday but may fall a bit in the afternoon. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouding over. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely, except possibly just rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Sleet/freezing rain except South Coast rain early morning. Additional snow/sleet/freezing rain may return late in the day. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain, maybe just rain for a while South Coast. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix likely early, then variably cloudy with snow showers possible. Temperatures steady 27-34, falling during the afternoon. Wind NE backing to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching another low pressure area with a snow/mix threat for the February 25-26 weekend, leaning toward Saturday night / Sunday morning for most likely period of impact. Active pattern may send another system with snow/mix/rain leaning toward frozen variety February 27 or 28. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Similar pattern into the early days of March, unsettled, colder with some wintry precipitation opportunities – watching March 2 & 6 as very early call. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

In the next 5 days we transition out of the pattern we’ve been in much of the winter. The La Nina driven ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, while not vanishing, weakens and flattens and allows colder air to the west and north to expand a little further east and south in the next 5 days (and beyond). For this forecast period, it means unsettled weather as we will be in a battle zone between the warmer and colder air. A few weather systems come by our region during this time. Today, while we have a mid and upper level system bringing its moisture through our region in the form of clouds, it will stay rain-free, but also warm up over yesterday’s temperatures as we get a strengthening southerly air flow. Tonight and early Monday, a disturbance will arrive and kick off some wet weather over Cape Cod and the Isands, and maybe briefly in to RI and southeastern MA around dawn Monday, but then this system will be kicked eastward by an approaching trough and cold front from the west. This may bring a rain shower to portions of the region in the afternoon and evening before it moves offshore and is followed by a small ridge of high pressure with a dry start to Tuesday. I was more optimistic about this day’s forecast previously, but not so much now as it’s evident that the next disturbance will be moving in quickly, and we see a quick return of clouds and then some rainfall with a warm front / cold front combo moving through. As this system exits Tuesday evening, it may end as snow with small accumulation potentially for northern MA and southern NH. Tired yet? Well the weather isn’t going to be as yet another, slightly larger scale trough and low pressure area moves in for midweek, probably starting as rain but may evolve into a mix/snow situation before it’s done with us – details to be worked out.

TODAY: Early sun mainly eastern areas, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S up to 10 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely overnight Islands / Cape Cod, and brief pre-dawn rain possible RI to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid to late afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending, possibly as a period of snow in northern MA and southern NH with some minor accumulation possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain with a possible trend to freezing rain, sleet, and snow from north to south. Temperatures starting 38-45 then gradually falling. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming mostly NE to N.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

An unsettled and somewhat colder pattern appears likely for the the final days of February. Main storm threat exists around the February 25-26 weekend based on current timing of features – likely including frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Similar pattern into the early days of March, unsettled, colder with some wintry precipitation opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

A dry February weekend, well 2 out of 3 if you included Monday’s Presidents Day holiday as part of a 3-day weekend. High pressure approaches and provides a bright, dry, chilly day today with a gusty breeze at times as the air mixes, but diminshing later on. The wind blowing across the water will result in more cloudiness across Cape Cod for several hours before that moves off / dissipates. Only a few passing fair weather cloud fragments may drift across the sky elsewhere. The high shifts east and a southerly air flow takes over Sunday with lots of clouds. An upper level disturbance then moves in from the west and triggers some rain showers in the region late Sunday night into Monday. A lot of this may stay just offshore but there is a decent shot for eastern areas. Later on, a cold front approaching from the west and northwest may trigger a few more rain showers before we get a shot of chilly, dry air for Tuesday. We start seeing evidence of an evolving weather pattern by the middle of next week when the next low pressure system moves in from the west on Wednesday that may start with a variety of precipitation – something to monitor and fine-tune later.

TODAY: Lots of clouds Cape Cod with increasing sun there later in the day. Sunny with just a few passing clouds elsewhere. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later and shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Highs 45-52. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight favoring the South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain that may start as a mix. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Unsettled weather early in the period may produce a variety of precipitation trending toward frozen before tapering off with mid period dry weather. Another storm threatens with potential wintry precipitation later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Flatter Southeast ridge and a jet stream in a position further south than it’s been much of the winter results in a pattern of near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation including frozen stuff.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

A cold front approaches, slowed briefly by a developing low pressure wave, then passing through the region from midday through this afternoon. Mild air and an increasing southerly wind under an overcast sky ahead of the front will lead to periods of rain showers during its passage, and the rain showers may end mixed with or turning to sleet and/or snow in some areas north of Boston if precipitation lingers long enough until the early evening. Tonight, the colder air invades, along with a gusty wind, so it’ll feel like mid winter finally. Our weekend is dry, but with two different types of weather. Saturday is sunniest and coolest with a gusty breeze as high pressure approaches from the west and low pressure departs via eastern Canada. Sunday is milder, with a shifting wind to a more southerly direction, but also turns cloudier as that southerly air flow brings increased moisture. Upper level low pressure will help kick off a new surface low just south and east of New England Sunday night into Monday, bringing a good chance of a period of rain favoring RI and eastern MA and perhaps the NH Seacoast early Monday. A trough and frontal system will keep clouds around and may produce an additional rain shower anywhere in the afternoon hours. Tuesday, a shot of chilly, dry air arrives with a gusty breeze once again.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of rain showers west to east starting at mid morning. Areas of fog through early afternoon. Breaking clouds but additional rain showers possible through late-day, except sleet and/or snow showers possible southern NH / northeastern MA. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH this morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts possible this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Early clouds, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with a few snow showers possible mainly NH Seacoast to MA North Shore. Clearing thereafter. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W and diminishing later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Highs 45-52. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight favoring the South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A gradual pattern shift will be ongoing with a stretch of unsettled weather at first then potentially more of that at the end of the period. More precipitation variety becomes probable with a colder trend taking place. Timing/details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Newer weather pattern more evident during this period with a couple of low pressure areas potentially impacting the region with a variety of precipitation including frozen stuff, and an overall colder temperature regime. Timing/details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

A word of caution: You hear talk of a pattern change. Yes, the pattern is about to change, or technically is already in the process of doing so. But it’s not a flip-switch. It’s a slow process. The weather during the next 5 days will be very reflective of the pattern we’ve been in much of the winter. Mild. Lack of snow. We will get one cold shot, but it will be brief. The resultant weather from a larger scale pattern change won’t be showing up in this 5-day period, but focusing on that first, this is what we have coming up. Today will be kind of the opposite of yesterday, which started with clouds and went to sunshine. Today we start with the sun and trend cloudier. But with a nice temperature launch pad we will see a lot of readings approach and break 60 for highs. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of temperatures way into the 60s, as we have a weak boundary in the area cutting off some areas to the north from getting too warm, as well as a wind component off the water keeping the South Coast in check, so the warmest areas will be somewhat limited. But either way, the region will enjoy yet another mild winter day. Rainfall holds off until tonight, with the northward push of a frontal boundary, and then a wave of low pressure cuts across the Northeast, a bit closer than previously forecast, so the frontal boundary on Friday will be close, warm air shorter-lived, rainfall sooner, and temperature fall ready to take place starting at midday and onward through afternoon and evening. For the most part, any moisture will be out of here before it’s cold enough to snow. One possible exception is southern NH which may catch a few snow showers on the back side of departing low pressure as the front pulls offshore during Friday afternoon. I do expect a gusty wind to dry the ground off for the most part before temperatures fall well below freezing Friday evening, but any areas that remain wet will quickly freeze over, so keep that in mind if driving or walking on any untreated surfaces. We have a dry weekend ahead as high pressure approaches Saturday, and moves just to the south of the region Saturday night and eventually off the Atlantic Coast by later Sunday. Saturday will be a breezy and seasonably cold day, with moderating temperatures and less wind Sunday. A low pressure disturbance will approach from the west later Sunday night into Monday, igniting a weak secondary low over or just east of our region during Monday. This won’t be a big deal for us, just a weaker system with some unsettled weather in the form of rain showers with air on the mild side.

TODAY: Partly sunny early then mainly cloudy. Late-day rain possible. Highs 57-64, coolest in southern NH and the northern half of central and eastern MA, warmest southern interior MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with highs of 50-57 South Coast. Wind SW-S up to 10 MPH may shift to SE or E for a while in areas near and north of I-90.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely evening. Lows 50-57. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday including a period of rain showers, possibly heavy, from west to east across the region. Sun/cloud mix thereafter but a brief snow shower possible parts of southern NH, maybe clipping northeastern MA. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Gradual impact of pattern change starts to show up during this period. Fair/breezy/cool to start and probably returning at the end of the period. Between a complex low pressure system moves through from west to east, probably as mainly rain for our area, but can’t rule out a colder trend and some mix/snow involved before the system is finished impacting the area. Southeast ridge weakens and colder air to north and northwest is closer.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Newer weather pattern more evident during this period with a couple of low pressure areas potentially impacting the region with a variety of precipitation including frozen stuff, and an overall colder temperature regime. Details to be worked out in the days ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

A warm front pushes through the region this morning with thicker clouds and perhaps a brief period of rain. Behind this front many areas top 50 degrees for a high temperature today, except maybe parts of the South Coast where a gusty southwesterly breeze will be coming off cooler water. Moisture from this area will result in some lower clouds for a while streaming across RI and southeastern / eastern MA which may limit the sun at times as it returns with the departure of the thicker middle clouds above. But overall not a bad afternoon despite the gusty wind picking up. As an initial wave of low pressure tracks to our north this evening, the boundary that went by as a warm front will be pulled somewhat back to the south and should bisect the region by morning, and it may sit there for a while Thursday. This along with a return of high and eventually mid level clouds will be a limiting factor in the entire area seeing record warmth. The greatest chance will be south of the boundary in eastern CT, RI, and interior southeastern MA. Again South Coast areas will be modified to the cooler side due to the wind off the water from the south and southwest, though it will not be as strong as today’s will be, so many of those areas should make it into the 50s, while areas north of the boundary may also fail to reach 60, with a narrow area of lower to middle 60s away from the shore and south of the front – kind of a needle-threading situation for the warmest temps. Boston’s record high for February 16 is only 60, so they do have a shot to tie, but may stay just below depending on how much sun / exact frontal position. A stronger low pressure wave moving through the eastern Great Lakes will pull the boundary back to the north as a warm front and put everybody into mild and more humid air by Thursday evening and night with a period of rain. A brief slice of rain-free, windy, and mild weather for early Friday just ahead of a strong cold front, which will be pulled through as the low center heads quickly down the St. Lawrence River Valley. After a windy and relatively brief period of rain showers, which may be heavy, the second half of the day will feature dry weather, a shifted but still gusty wind, and falling temperatures. This sets up a seasonably cold but breezy Friday night and Saturday as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and high pressure approaches from the west. But as many of our colder shots have been this winter, it’s a quick one, and as high pressure moves over and then south of the region Sunday, we’re fair again but milder…

TODAY: Cloudy with brief light rain possible this morning. Sun/cloud mix east, sunnier west afternoon. Highs 45-52 Cape Cod / South Coast, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early then mainly cloudy. Late-day rain possible. Highs 57-64, coolest in southern NH and the northern half of central and eastern MA, warmest southern interior MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with highs of 50-57 South Coast. Wind SW-S up to 10 MPH may shift to SE or E for a while in areas near and north of I-90.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely evening. Lows 50-57. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday including a period of rain showers, possibly heavy, from west to east across the region. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Large scale: La Nina has already shown signs of weakening and is forecast to weaken further as we head into late February. This, combined with other indices, have been giving indications of a weaker / flatter Southeast ridge which has dominated our winter with mild and nearly snowless weather. Regional scale: Expecting a minor system with light rain/mix for February 20, a shot of cool air and gusty wind February 21, then watching the February 22-24 period for a larger low pressure impact with a variety of precipitation possible, with the obvious monitoring and fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

As we head down the home stretch of February and reach March, the shift in weather pattern should be more evident with temperatures, while variable, less persistently mild and much closer to seasonal normals for this time of year, along with 1 or 2 storm systems to potential threaten, including the chance of frozen precipitation being involved. Yes, it’s still winter, and will still be winter when we reach the start of March too…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

An upper level disturbance went by overnight with a few rain and snow showers that if you were not awake for them you’d never have known they were even around if they passed by your area. High pressure heads for New England today but some lingering clouds will be in the sky in the wake of the upper low before we see more sun as the air dries out, but a nice day overall. High pressure moves overhead tonight and today’s gusty breeze will drop off, then the high moves off to the east Wednesday and a warm front moves through from southwest to northeast with more clouds and a possible shower of rain through midday before some clearing, and a return of the breezy weather. A cold front will approach but not quite get here Thursday as the boundary will have to wait for another low pressure wave to move by the region that night, when our best chance of rain occurs after a very mild day. The anomalous warmth continues very early Friday but as the low moves by to the north, the front will swing through, the wind will shift, and the temperature will go down later Friday as it dries out. This leads to a dry, chilly start to the weekend.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain shower in the morning. Sun returns afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early then mainly cloudy. Late-day rain possible. Highs 58-65, probably cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62 morning, falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Dry weather to finish off the weekend February 19. A milder trend arrives February 20 maybe with a touch of light precipitation, but this one looks more brief with fair weather on February 21, then a colder trend and potential unsettled weather including wintry precipitation later in the period, though low confidence on timing and details this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Flatter ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast allows the boundary between warm air to the south and cold air in Canada to be in our region with a more unsettled pattern as a result and colder than its been allowing a greater chance of frozen precipitation being involved.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A pretty potent low pressure area is passing southeast of New England early today but is far enough out to sea that it barely got its rain area over the South Coast, and that exists via Cape Cod this morning, leaving the region with a dry but breezy and cool day as clouds try to hang on through the day. Upper level low pressure scoots southeastward across the area tonight and very early Tuesday with a few snow showers mainly in NH and eastern MA. The balance of Tuesday, Valentine’s Day, will be nice but on the breezy side. A small area of high pressure crosses the region Tuesday night allowing the wind to drop off, but the wind picks right back up Wednesday as the high moves offshore and a disturbance moves in with clouds and a rain shower threat. This warm up continues through Thursday but additional wet weather arrives later as low pressure heads northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes. The low will then move down the St. Lawrence Valley Friday, dragging a cold front across the region with more wet weather, and putting an end to the warm-up. The timing of the front will help determine the high temperatures for Friday. My early idea is a midday frontal passage, a very mild and wet morning, and a colder and drier afternoon with plenty of wind.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Early rain Cape Cod. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA with spotty minor accumulations. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 by late. Wind calm early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 58-65, possibly cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62 morning, falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Dry weather expected over the February 18-19 weekend with a gusty breeze and chilly air Saturday, less wind and a little milder Sunday. Minor system may scoot through with a bit of precipitation February 20 and watching a larger low pressure system with a precipitation threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Flatter ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast allows the boundary between warm air to the south and cold air in Canada to be in our region with a more unsettled pattern as a result. Many details to work out in the days ahead…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

A pleasant winter Sunday finishes off our weekend today. It starts bright but ends less so as clouds advance ahead of approaching low pressure. The low is destined to pass southeast of New England on Monday, with its precipitation shield, in the form of rain, getting into the South Coast region, but not much further north than that – perhaps up to the Plymouth MA area. I’m taking the end-of-system snow chance out of the Outer Cape Cod region because the system will be moving too quickly and the air that is cold enough to support any snow will not be in place quickly enough. Behind this system comes a small but potent disturbance to pass through the region early Tuesday with the possibility of snow showers, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA, where spotty minor accumulations may occur. This moves out quickly though and the balance of Tuesday is nice, but on the cool side. The return of milder air on Wednesday will trigger cloudiness and possible spotty rain shower activity, but I don’t think we get a clean warm frontal passage initially – I think we get a wavy boundary in the region, so we have to wait on Thursday for another surge of warmth to arrive, probably with a lot of clouds and some additional potential rain. This has me doubting the magnitude of warmth being advertised by some outlets, although it will most certainly be a day of very mild air by February standards either way. So I leave a little bit of fine-tuning to do for the end of the 5-day forecast period and move on to the details the best I have them now…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain up to South Shore. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning rain Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA with spotty minor accumulations. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with possible snow showers favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA early, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25, 11-18 in normal cold spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 by late. Wind calm early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 58-65, possibly cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Fridays seem to be our dramatic day of the week this month, from arctic outbreak on February 3 to warm surge on February 10, and now February 17 looks like a warm start, strong cold front to pass with showers and wind, and much colder finish. Timing of the front may be earlier and warmth may be shorter lived – will monitor that. Following this looks to be a drier period of weather, chilly over the February 18-19 weekend, milder after.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Pattern gets more interesting here as we see the Southeast ridge flatten a bit and colder air dominating Canada and not far away. Boundary nearby, watch for a series of low pressure systems to start impacting our region. Probably on the mild side of these initially, but that may change with time…