C-19 Chat Post – March 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29 -APRIL 2)

Winter’s reminder starts off the new week as we experience strong wind gusts behind departing low pressure, and a chunk of cold air crossing the region. High pressure nudges eastward by Tuesday and helps slacken the wind while moderating the air, so Tuesday will have a bit more feel of spring to it. This high pressure area then crosses the region and positions itself offshore while a frontal boundary approaches from the west Wednesday – a milder but windier day which turns cloudy, and eventually wet as a ribbon of rain moves in from the west, probably late-day or night. As we flip the calendar from March to April, the first question to answer will be timing of rain’s end on Thursday as we’ll probably see a wave of low pressure moving up along a cold front as it passes offshore. I don’t think the timing and arrival of cold air will be such that we flip to snow here before it ends, but that does still remain at least a remote possibility, so we’ll have to watch for that. The Red Sox home opener is scheduled for Thursday, which even if it can be played due to drying weather it will be played with a gusty wind and chilly temperatures – not highly unusual for baseball in early April. High pressure builds into the region from the west by Friday which will be a bright, breezy, and chilly day as another shot of Canadian cold air is delivered, whether you ordered it or not. 😉

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH, but 50 MPH or greater in some higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 60-67 except 50s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Lows 46-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers ending during the morning, possibly mixed with snow. Temperatures steady 46-53 early then falling to the upper 30s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. WInd NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)

Large scale blocking pattern. The overall setup is one that should keep us on the drier side with no major storminess having direct impact on our region. Temperatures are tricky, leaning toward an April 3-4 weekend warm-up and a cool-down the first part of the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)

Larger scale blocking pattern may keep it on the cooler side of normal but with limited unsettled weather as we may remain in a drier part of the block.

C-19 Chat Post – March 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 -APRIL 1)

Hope you enjoyed yesterday. Although it started out with a gusty northwesterly breeze and ended up with a chilly sea breeze for some, by late March standards it was a nice day. Today won’t be quite so nice. It’s already overcast and approaching low pressure from the west will send a slug of rainfall into the region. There’s enough instability with the system that we may even get some thunderstorm activity with the rainfall this evening as an occluded frontal system moves across the region. Although we do need that rain to help alleviate recent dryness and also fire danger which has been spiking on our dry, breezy days. Speaking of dry and windy, that’s the type of weather we get Monday as our rain-producer moves away and pulls a chunk of cold air out of Canada. High pressure moves in with a less windy and milder Tuesday, but March may exit with a bit of a roar as strong cold front approaches from the west Wednesday with windy and showery weather by late-day or nighttime. In the medium range, we’ve been pondering the questions of what will happen when the front crosses the region around April 1. Well, it will bring colder air back to the region – that much we know. It will bring some wet weather to start the new month – that much we’re pretty sure of. Will it move slowly enough that enough moisture will be around for that rain to change to snow? It’s still several days away, so I’m not sure, but I’m leaning away from a “snow” threat there and maybe just some rain showers or snow flurries as the front moves off and cold air arrives. Still time to fine-tune this.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle developing during the morning especially near the coast. Rain arriving west to east midday continuing through afternoon. . Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, also areas of fog. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 58-65 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 42-49. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Temperatures steady 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

Large scale blocking pattern. Leaning toward mainly dry but cooler than normal weather with broad low pressure evolving and staying quasi-stationary to the east of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

Larger scale blocking pattern may keep it on the cooler side of normal but with limited unsettled weather as we may remain in a drier part of the block.

C-19 Chat Post – March 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The home stretch of March 2021 starts with a nice day as high pressure enters the region today. While the center of the high is still to our west we’ll have a gusty breeze this morning, which will settle down as the high moves overhead during the day. Today is definitely the pick of the weekend though for outdoor activity, as advancing low pressure will bring cloudiness back in tonight which thickens up quickly Sunday morning and is followed by rain, which we need to knock down fire danger and chip away from what had been a rebuilding precipitation deficit. Sunday’s rainmaker will exit by early Monday and behind it will be a shot of windy and colder weather. High pressure heads into the region from the west by Tuesday – a nice day, and then gives way to an approaching frontal system from the west Wednesday which will be milder, and may turn showery by day’s end…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, diminishing afternoon..

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle morning. Rain arriving west to east by midday continuing thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with area of fog/drizzle and a passing shower or possible thunderstorm. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day or nighttime rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Cold front moves through April 1 with at least a round of rain showers – will watch for an area of low pressure that may form on the front and give a period of rain and even mix/snow depending on timing of precipitation vs. arrival of cold air. Blocking pattern evolving means we will have to look for our weather not necessarily coming from the west during the days following this, and colder air from Canada may win out. We should have a couple or a few dry days but it may eventually turn unsettled before this period is over.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Larger scale blocking pattern may keep it on the cooler side of normal but with limited unsettled weather as we may end up in a drier part of the block.

C-19 Chat Post – March 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)

So yesterday worked out close to what was expected – maybe a bit longer to get the clearing to the NH Seacoast, where it arrived mid to late afternoon. Inland areas were the ones that warmed to the upper 60s and lower 70s, as expected, while coastal areas stayed cooler, also as expected. Clouds came back in overnight and we’ve already had a few showers and dowpours travel across parts of the area early this morning. A few more rounds of showers can be expected today as a much weakened form of the activity that caused severe storms / tornadoes in the South yesterday lifts through our region. This is all in advance of low pressure that will pass north of our area tonight and drag a cooler air mass in, but with dry weather, for the start of the weekend. But our weather systems are on the move and we’ll only have half a weekend of good weather as the next low charges in on Sunday with a nice slug of rainfall, but it’s needed rainfall as we’ve been rather dry this month. When that system exits it will be followed by a brief but strong shot of colder air with wind on Monday, reminding us that the Canadian reservoir of cold is not yet empty. But high pressure moves over the region by Tuesday when we’ll have much less wind and moderating temperatures.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy into mid afternoon with episodes of showers including the slight risk of a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds / clearing west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod & Islands, 58-65 remainder of South Coast and interior southeastern MA, Cape Ann MA, and most of interior RI, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny with a few high clouds afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle morning. Rain arriving west to east by midday continuing thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain possible evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A passing light rain and / or snow shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Quicker-moving pattern – now leaning toward unsettled weather for the last day of March with a system approaching from the west. Early April weather dilemma in 2 parts: 1) Does a cold front coming through on April 1 keep on moving and just turn us breezy & chilly to start the month, or slow down and keep unsettled weather, rain and even some snow, in the area? 2) Do April 3-4 warm up with high pressure to the south, or does a Canadian high pressure area win a battle and keep us on the cooler side and possibly unsettled near the boundary? Not really sure how either of these go yet…

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)

Obviously very low confidence given the low confidence of the period of time before this, but today’s leaning is for a larger scale blocking pattern pattern with our area on the cooler side of normal but also fairly dry…

C-19 Chat Post – March 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

“Hey! Where’s my 70 degrees?!” I’ll hear this somewhere online or in person this morning. I can almost guarantee it. But I’m going to take this opportunity for this reminder. A TV or weather app icon may show you a number, but an icon can’t add value to a forecast. It can’t tell you that today dawns with overcast, areas of fog, scattered rainfall, and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It can’t tell you that the conditions were expected to start out that way because we’re still in the cool air mass ahead of a warm front. It isn’t going to explain to you that it takes time for that frontal boundary to move across the region, but it will do so. It’s definitely not going to tell you that once it does cross the region that the clouds associated with it may not completely break up and clear out until later morning or even very early afternoon. It’s certainly not going to tell you that the clouds may be rather stubborn to clear out at all over some South Coast locations, especially Cape Cod, where they are surrounded by water relatively cold compared to the incoming air mass. And depending on how good your app is, no icon is going to explain that coastal areas may never even get close to 70 today because the air flow will be from the east and may even shift to northerly for a short time there thanks to a very weak low pressure wave on the front, and then will be weak enough to allow the development of sea breezes near the shoreline of the region. But all of those tidbits are true, and I hope they added some value to your expectation of today’s weather. So now we can move onto tonight and beyond, and a more conventional description: Low pressure parenting the warm front that crosses the region today will pass north of our area tonight and early Friday and drag a cold front through the region with an episode of rain showers, but it will take until evening for this front to clear the entire area, so we’ll spend much of the day still in the warm sector, although much winder due to a much tighter pressure gradient thanks to that low pressure area intensifying as it passes. A low pressure trough will pass by in the evening introducing colder air to the region. So our weekend will start chilly and breezy Saturday with some passing clouds, but that day will turn sunnier and less windy as high pressure moves in and the pressure gradient relaxes. This sets up a quick temperature drop off Saturday evening with mostly clear sky and light wind to start, but this temperature drop will be thwarted by the quick advance of cloudiness, which will act as a blanket, ahead of the next low pressure system. This system will be a small but rather potent low moving through the Great Lakes, sending an occluded front our way likely resulting in a solid band of rainfall arriving during the midday hours of Sunday and continuing until the evening as a secondary low starts to form over the region just as the low starts to pull away. As the new low center becomes the dominant one and pulls off toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will cause us a period of windy and colder weather Monday with the potential for a few passing rain and/or snow showers and a reminder that winter left us not all that long ago…

TODAY: Overcast through mid morning with areas of fog and drizzle and additional areas of rain tapering off from west to east. Breaking clouds west to east late morning followed by clearing with sun dominant this afternoon, except clouds hanging on closer to the South Coast especially over Cape Cod. Highs ranging widely from near 50 Cape Cod & Islands to near 60 other coastal areas where it may cool back to the 50s during the afternoon to 70-77 away from coastal areas, warmest in interior valley locations. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH this morning shifting to SW around 10 MPH midday on but coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with rain showers arriving. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm through mid afternoon. Variably cloudy late-day. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod & Islands, 58-65 remainder of South Coast and interior southeastern MA, Cape Ann MA, and most of interior RI, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny with a few high clouds afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle morning. Rain arriving west to east by midday continuing thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain possible evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A passing light rain and / or snow shower possible. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

High pressure moves in with fair weather for the last couple of days of March, coolest March 30, milder March 31. A slow-moving cold front approaches April 1 and takes its time departing the region April 2 with a period of unsettled weather. High pressure moves in with fair weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Leaning toward the idea of high pressure centered to the south of New England with dry and milder to warmer weather to start this period, but we’ll have to watch a boundary to the north with colder air on the other side, which may drift down and bring cooler and potentially eventually unsettled weather to the region toward middle and latter portions of this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)

Our stretch of pleasant days is behind us and now it’s time for some of the unsettled weather that spring is also known for. One low pressure that has been hanging around the US Southeast Coast is lifting out to the northeast now and will add a little bit of its moisture and air flow to our atmosphere ahead of a warm front, which is parented by a stronger low pressure area heading east northeastward from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley, passing well north of our area through Thursday. First, the southern low / warm front combo will increase the cloudiness today and lead to a period of rain later this evening. The weakness of the low and its progression will allow the warm front to make it through, and put us nicely into the warm sector behind it on Thursday. The cold front trailing from the St. Lawrence Valley low leads to another low pressure area that will be intensifying as it heads into the Great Lakes. This will keep us in the warm air into Friday morning when a cold front trailing from the Great Lakes low will come through – rain showers ahead of it, drying behind it during Friday, although that will still be a fairly mild day as, typically for our area, the colder air will wait until a secondary trough passes through to really get into the region Friday night. This sets up a cooler and breezy but dry day Saturday between that departing low (which also exits via the St. Lawrence Valley / Canadian Maritimes) and high pressure in the Great Lakes. This high will come eastward across the region allowing for a chilly Saturday night, which probably would end up even colder if not for increasing clouds ahead of the next low pressure area. This low will also travel through the Great Lakes and pass north of our area, but will be an occluding system and moving fairly quickly, likely to bring wet weather back for a short but notable visit during Sunday. Weekend or not, we do need rain.

TODAY: Patchy fog early morning. Partial sun then becoming cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain mid evening through overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Lingering rain or drizzle with patchy fog possible early morning, otherwise cloudy to start then increasing sun southwest to northeast, but clouds may linger near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Highs 49-54 Islands / Cape Cod, 57-64 remainder of South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with rain showers arriving. Lows 48-55. SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and rain showers likely until mid morning, then mostly to variably cloudy with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55 Islands & Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast and southeastern MA as well Cape Ann, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a possible rain shower early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely midday-afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W late.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Windy/colder possible rain or snow showers March 29 in the wake of intensifying but departing low pressure. High pressure moves in with fair weather for the last 2 days of March, starting chilly then moderating. Uncertainty to start April but a slower-moving frontal system may bring unsettled weather at some point during the first 2 days of the new month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)

Confidence lowers this far out but high pressure should be in control with fair weather and a warming trend to start, followed by unsettled and cooling weather.

C-19 Chat Post – March 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

One more very nice day in our four-day stretch of fabulous March weather. Once again with high pressure over us and a light wind, we’ll see sea breeze development keeping the coast cooler while inland areas warm nicely. But let’s face reality: This is New England and this is March. You know this isn’t going to last, and it’s not. Changes are coming, and it starts as an often-seen springtime cut off low to our south lifts out and adds moisture in the form of cloudiness to our sky as a warm front approaches from the west Wednesday. While any rainfall from the low to the south stays mostly offshore, a bit of a link between that and the warm front does produce a period of two of rainfall from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Wednesday itself will be a cooler day with a more general onshore gradient wind flow and extensive cloud cover, but we’ll bust into the warm sector on Thursday when all areas see a nice southwesterly wind. This will help much of the region warm to levels that feel more like mid to late spring, but at this time of the year the water temperatures mean that a southwesterly wind is going to keep the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, much cooler, and there may also be more cloudiness down that way as a result of the warm and relatively more humid air passing over that water. As a cold front approaches and passes through the region during Friday, we’ll start in the warm air but see lots of clouds and increasing rain shower activity from west to east as the front nears. Behind that front, which will be parented by strengthening low pressure passing to the north of the region, a shot of breezy and cooler air arrives for Saturday, but it will be a dry day to start the final weekend of the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy at times South Coast region. Highs 49-54 Islands / Cape Cod, 57-64 remainder of South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 Islands & Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast and southeastern MA as well Cape Ann, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

The back half of the last weekend of March look unsettled as low pressure approaches and moves in from the southwest with some beneficial rain potential for March 28, that may start out as a rain/sleet mix over some interior areas if enough cold air gets in just before the system arrives. With much colder air nearby, we have to watch the track and evolution of this low as it may not end cleanly as just rain on March 29, but with the potential for some mix/snow involved as well. This low may also be slow to move away with a bit of an atmospheric roadblock in place, and this should result in a windy/colder ending to the month with even a reinforcing shot of cold air possibly arriving and lasting through the first day of April. There are some notable differences in the various guidance out that far so will re-evaluate this going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Going to be near boundary of Canadian cold and US Mid Atlantic warmth. You know what that means. Uncertain temperature forecast made even more complicated by the ocean water temperatures. Also the potential for a couple rounds of unsettled weather is certainly there. Not even going to try to venture anything day-to-day this far in advance. Stay tuned…

C-19 Chat Post – March 23 2021