10:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)
High pressure provides a beautiful day today then hangs on for a good part of Sunday as well. Low pressure will track north of New England late Monday and drag an occluded front through the region from west to east late in the day and at night, bringing some wet weather. A small high pressure area will move in behind this with nice weather Tuesday before the next low arrives Wednesday with more wet weather.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs from near 60 coast to near 70 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 37-44 interior valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind light variable to calm.
SUNDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs from near 60 coast to near 70 interior. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-58. Wind light SE to S.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 60-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 70-78.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)
This forecast is not the highest confidence but I’m going to attempt a little detail given that this runs through Memorial Day. Optimistic for dry weather or just a few showers around Thursday May 25, a low pressure system bringing wet weather on Friday May 26, lingering clouds with isolated showers but overall dry weather for Saturday May 27, fair and nice weather Sunday May 28, and a taste of summer for Memorial Day Monday May 29. Much tweaking to be done.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)
Watching this period for a spell of wet weather and then a cool-down.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)
Short on time so will add a discussion later today. Forecast update…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 48-55, coolest interior valleys. Highs 66-82, coolest eastern coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chanced of showers. Lows 55-62. Highs 65-72.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 50-57. Highs 68-75.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)
Wet weather early in the period followed by a drying trend. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)
Dry weather to start the period then a risk of showers returns. Temperatures near normal.

1:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)
A strong ridge of high pressure brings another day of mid summer heat today, over 1 month before we reach the summer solstice. Early-season heat is certainly not unheard of. We’ve had plenty of 90 degree days in May, and even some in April. Either way, this summer preview will be rather short-lived. A cold front will come through the region Friday and return temperatures to more seasonable levels for the weekend. A warm front will then approach later Sunday and make it through the region by Monday, at which time a cold front will approach from the west, the first signs of a return to an unsettled pattern…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. More humid. Highs 75-86 South Coast except cooler islands, 87-95 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunder, favoring areas west and northwest of Boston. Humid. Lows 63-71. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly morning to early afternoon. Humid then drier later in the day. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 46-56, coolest interior rural areas, mildest urban locations. Highs 66-73, coolest coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 48-55, coolest interior valleys. Highs 66-82, coolest eastern coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chanced of showers. Lows 55-62. Highs 65-72.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)
Fair May 23, next chance of rain or showers followed on May 24 and lingering scattered showers with an upper low May 25. Additional unsettled weather possible May 26-27. Temperatures should average below normal overall for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Drying trend expected. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels.

1:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)
A few adjustments in this update, mainly to slow timing of systems and increase the temperature forecast a little bit for Sunday. The basic idea is the same with high pressure in control of the weather, but a warm front will pass through the region early Wednesday and introduces air that is more like early to mid summer for Wednesday and Thursday, and a cold front will pass through the region on Friday, cooling it down somewhat for the start of the weekend. It may rebound on Sunday but there is still a question of a potential front in the vicinity that could result in a larger temperature contrast. That type of even is hard to pinpoint more than a couple days in advance, so will keep an eye on it as it gets closer. The only real risk of any rain would be an isolated shower or thunderstorm with Friday’s cold front.
TODAY: Clouds in eastern areas early, then sun dominates. Highs 60-68 Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 68-76 South Coast, 76-85 elsewhere except 85-90 north central MA and interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. More humid. Highs 75-83 South Coast except cooler islands, 84-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 62-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly morning to early afternoon. Humid then drier later in the day. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 52-60. Highs 66-73, coolest coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55, coolest interior valleys. Highs 66-82, coolest eastern coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)
Look for mild but showery weather during the first few days of this period then a cooler trend with drier weather or limited shower activity later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)
A low pressure trough may be passing through around the Memorial Day Weekend with the risk of at least some unsettled weather. It’s too early to know for sure what the magnitude and impact would be. Assuming this system was around at the start of the period drier weather would likely follow for the last couple days of the month. Fine-tuning to come in the days ahead.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)
High pressure will dominate the weather during the next 5 days with a big warm-up leading to some summer heat by Thursday, then a cold front cutting the temperature down by the end of the week, overall a very nice stretch of weather.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-57. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except middle 70s to lower 80s South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest East Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)
A series of boundaries in the region will bring unsettled weather and changeable temperatures during this 5-day stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)
The pattern during the 6-10 day period may continue here as well but confidence is low at this time.

3:05AM

COMMENTARY
No. Extremes in the spring are not unusual. Stop letting the media make you think otherwise. It’s getting tiring to be honest. If you want my full thoughts, I refer you to the comments from yesterday’s blog entry.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)
Pattern change time! Say goodbye to the upper low which will cause one more day of cool and unsettled weather, then will be replaced by a high pressure ridge bringing a significant warm-up from Tuesday through Thursday, with dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, and a risk of showers and thunderstorms as humidity increases and a cold front approaches on Thursday. By Friday, we keep the upper level high pressure area generally in place but introduce somewhat cooler/drier air as a different surface high pressure area noses its way in from eastern Canada behind that cold front.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with diminishing rain/drizzle morning. Partial sun this afternoon especially west of Boston. Highs 55-63, mildest interior areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, then diminishing.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s except a few middle 80s interior warm spots and upper 60s to lower 70s South Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except middle 70s to lower 80s South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)
Expect high pressure to bring a great day for my birthday oops I mean May 20. After that, things are not so clear-cut as we may see a front drop in from the north next Sunday, set-up a temperature contrast, and then a trough from the west adding moisture to the mix and a period of unsettled weather resulting.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)
Should trend a little drier and warmer during these days.

2:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)
A low pressure area passes southeast of New England today then does a loop to the east of New England Monday before pulling away. Following this, a new pattern gets underway as a high pressure ridge builds along the East Coast, resulting in a major warm-up.
TODAY: Overcast. Rain, heaviest in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH during the first half of the morning, then tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas of eastern and southeastern MA where gusts of over 30 MPH are most likely.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts favoring eastern coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers, most likely in the morning. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)
High pressure will be in control through the weekend of May 20-21 with warmest weather a slight cool-down but very nice air May 19-20 then a warm-up May 21. A frontal system moving into the region will bring the chance of showers later in the period but with continued mild air.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)
Wet and mild start to the period then a drier trend. Temperatures near to above normal.

2:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)
A cool weekend with a significant rainstorm for tonight and Sunday as low pressure intensifies off the Mid Atlantic Coast, moves northeastward, to just east of New England, then does a small loop before moving away Monday, which will also be somewhat unsettled. Then, the pattern completely changes as high pressure builds along the East Coast and initiates a warming trend toward the middle of next week.
TODAY: Filtered sun possible mainly southeastern NH and northeastern MA for a while this morning otherwise a thickening overcast. Rain may reach central MA, CT, and possibly RI by late afternoon. Highs 50-55 South Coast, 55-60 elsewhere. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain overspreading all areas, becoming heavy at times late. Lows 40-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts toward dawn.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain, heaviest in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH during the first half of the morning, then tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas of eastern and southeastern MA where gusts of over 30 MPH are most likely.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts favoring eastern coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)
High pressure will be in control through the weekend of May 20-21 with warmest weather May 18 and 21 while May 19-20 are a little cooler due to a weak front from the north and an area of surface high pressure over southeastern Canada. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur later on May 18. A cold front approaching from the west may bring a shower threat by May 22, which will be a warm day as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)
Another unsettled period of weather is expected but this time it should be a mild stretch and not like the recent/current very cool pattern.

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)
Upper level low pressure departs today and another one moves into the northeastern US from west to east this weekend through Monday. On Tuesday, a new pattern begins as upper level low pressure is gone and a high pressure ridge takes its place.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Slight chance of showers. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain develops late in the day. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 interior. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy, tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)
The overall pattern will be dry and warm, though temperatures may cool for a day or 2 mid to late period near the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)
Pattern will likely favor a nearby boundary and this opens the door for frequent passing disturbances bringing episodes of wet weather, as well as temperatures ups/downs.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)
Upper level low pressure departs through Friday and another one moves into the northeastern US from west to east this weekend through Monday. This keeps the unsettled weather pattern going, first with mainly just cloudiness dominating. The arrival of the next low will kick off a surface storm that is expected to bring some significant rain by Saturday night into Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 interior. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 42-47. Wind light NE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind light NE.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops afternoon and continues at night. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 interior. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy, tapering to lighter rain/drizzle. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief mix possible higher elevations early otherwise isolated showers. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)
A pattern flip to a high pressure ridge dominating the eastern US means overall drier with a warming trend, though we’ll have to watch for high pressure to the north pushing a boundary southward and making at least coastal areas cooler at some point mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)
Pattern will likely favor a nearby boundary and this opens the door for frequent passing disturbances bringing episodes of wet weather, as well as temperatures ups/downs.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)
Upper level low pressure continues to spin over the region but starts to elongate and eventually slips off to the east through Friday. Another upper low and associated surface system will impact the weather this weekend. There is some question as to how far north the resulting storm will come and that will determine timing, duration, and magnitude of rainfall, something to fine-tune in the next 2 days.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers mainly afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 39-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers mainly AM. Lows 40-47. Highs 56-63.
SATURDAY: AM sun, PM clouds, chance of rain late. Lows 42-49. Highs 56-63.
SUNDAY – MOTHERS DAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-52.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)
Lingering cool air and a risk of showers May 15 as upper level low pressure hangs on, then a transition to warmer and mainly dry weather follows as the pattern becomes more progressive.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)
Starting out dry and seasonable to warm, then wet weather returning later in the period.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)
Upper level low pressure will continue dominate the weather during the next few days. Again though we will be given examples of how periods of nicer weather can also take place during this time, this morning being one of them with some sunshine before clouds dominate. We may also see a little more sunshine Wednesday and perhaps Friday, with Thursday being the “least fair” day of this stretch. Confidence drops for Saturday due to uncertainty on development and movement of a possible coastal storm, but going with a drier forecast for now in between systems as the current upper low moves out and another one approaches.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers this afternoon. Highs 54-61. Wind light SW to S becoming variable, with sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers mainly afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers mainly PM. Lows 40-47. Highs 56-63.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers mainly AM. Lows 40-47. Highs 56-63.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 42-49. Highs 58-65.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)
Another upper low may bring a rain risk May 14 into May 15 which could even end as a mix in some areas on May 15. The remainder of the period should be similar to the weather we are currently experiencing as upper level low pressure lingers over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)
Still looking at a possible transition to dry and warmer weather during this period.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)
Upper level low pressure will dominate the weather during the next several days. Its orientation is shifting so after our fairly mild weekend it will be cooler for this week, though it still will not result in any all-day rain, just episodes of showers. The low will start to elongate and drift away toward the end of the week.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers eastern MA early to mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers anywhere midday through afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers afternoon. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers mainly afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers. Lows 40-47. Highs 56-63.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Lows 40-47. Highs 56-63.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)
Another upper low moves into the region on the weekend of May 13-14 and brings a risk of rain, though there is some chance this surface feature stays far enough south for a miss. This should be followed by a pattern similar to the one going on this week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)
Still looking at a possible transition to dry and warmer weather during this period.

11:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)
Not much to change in today’s update. Upper level low pressure will continue spin over the northeastern USA for the entirety of this period, which is an unsettled pattern but not full of wash-out days. As always, timing individual periods of wet weather is a little difficult but updates will continue to process of focusing the forecast especially through the first 2 days.
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon on. Showers likely over Cape Cod and a few scattered showers mainly west of Boston late in the day. Highs 58-66, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Daily risk of showers, highest risk Tuesday PM and Thursday AM based on current timing. Lows 45-52. Highs 56-63.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)
Elongation of the upper low early in the period and then another slightly more progressive upper low later in the period will likely keep it on the unsettled side with temperatures near to mostly below normal for this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)
Continued somewhat lower than average confidence on this outlook but still feeling that a milder/drier stretch of weather may get underway during these days, at least toward the end.

8:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)
Upper level low pressure will spin over the northeastern USA for the entirety of this period, but despite some weather apps telling you that we were in for days upon days of rain, we are not. We had some significant rainfall on Friday as the surface system associated with the upper low moved across the region, and now we will see varying weather during this period, caused by a blocking pattern – when weather systems move very little or stay nearly stationary for a period of time. But even when you are in the low pressure region of one of these patterns, you can still get episodes of good weather when areas of drier air move into your region. In this case, the low pressure area being centered a little more to the west this weekend will allow it to be fairly mild, and part of the weekend will feature some sun too. A shift east and southeast of the upper low early next week will result in cooler weather, but still unsettled with several opportunities for showers. To time these opportunities is difficult, so will leave it as a more general idea and fine-tune with each update.
TODAY: Overcast through midday with areas of fog dissipating. Mostly cloudy afternoon with best chance of intervals of sunshine southwest of Boston. Steadiest rain over southeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise episodes of scattered showers and brief downpours possible anywhere, but favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 64-69 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible. Lows 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny morning through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon on. Showers likely over Cape Cod and a few scattered showers mainly west of Boston late in the day. Highs 58-66, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Daily risk of showers. Lows 45-52. Highs 55-62.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)
Elongation of the upper low early in the period and then another slightly more progressive upper low later in the period will likely keep it on the unsettled side with temperatures near to mostly below normal for this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)
Low confidence forecast but looks like a transition to a more progressive pattern may try to get underway meaning weather systems move along and some warmer air will also return.