3:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Low pressure wave moving north northeastward will pass just east of Cape Cod by midday today, bringing showers mainly this morning especially to southeastern MA. Cold front number 1 will pass through from west to east this evening with a risk of rain showers in a couple of waves, but they will likely be weakening as they move through, limiting rainfall. Cold front number 2 will pass through from northwest to southeast later Wednesday but will bring mainly cloudiness and probably no precipitation. Cold front number 3 will be due by the middle of Friday, accompanied by rain showers. Cold front number 4 is expected to charge through the region Saturday with a few rain showers. And of course, certainty and timing confidence decreases slightly the further out in time you go so watch for updates.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with occasional rain showers, best chance over southeastern MA including possible brief downpours and a slight risk of thunder. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated showers. More humid. Highs upper 60s Cape Cod and South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, S to SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers through about midnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly to mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.
FRIDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a rain shower. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Dry and relatively cold October 18. Continued mainly dry with a significant warm-up October 19-22, however a rain shower risk comes very late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)…
Rain shower risk very early in the period otherwise mainly dry weather with variable temperatures averaging out somewhat above normal.

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7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
If you are lucky enough to have today off, you win, especially if you planned something outside. A little bit of Summer will linger in the air as high pressure to the south sends a warm southwest wind across the region. Still watching a low pressure area that will travel out to sea to the south but close enough for some clouds and perhaps a shower over Cape Cod early Tuesday. The rest of the region will have to wait for a passing cold front to bring a shower threat later Tuesday, but that does not look very widespread. Fair weather returns for midweek with a cooling trend behind the cold front. Another disturbance will move rapidly across the region Friday with a few more showers possible.
TODAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH early becoming variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers Cape Cod early. Risk of showers elsewhere later in the day. Highs 60-65 Cape Cod, 65-70 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, S to SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)…
A dry but very cool weekend October 17-18. Fair with a warming trend October 19-21.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)…
Mainly dry weather continues with variable temperatures heading into late month.

8:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
High and some middle cloudiness overnight prevented temperatures from falling to their potential lows and therefore frost was isolated in the lowest-lying inland areas. The great weekend weather continues today through Columbus Day Monday as we enter the warm-up phase on an increasing west to south wind. Low pressure passes offshore and a weak cold front slides through from the west Tuesday with a few showers possible, then it’s back to fair weather with a cool-down for Wednesday and Thursday.
TODAY: Filtered sun with variable high cloudiness morning, brighter sun with a few high clouds afternoon. Highs 65-70 except 60-65 deepest valleys. Wind W to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-50 valleys, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
Fair and cool October 16. Possible rain/snow showers October 17, dry October 18, unseasonable chill. Fair with a warming trend October 19-20.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)…
Up and down temperature pattern with a warmer start and colder finish possible, with perhaps a threat of unsettled weather briefly around temperature transition from warmer to colder.

9:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
A fabulous Columbus Day Weekend as high pressure slides in from the northwest today, crests over New England tonight and early Sunday, then slides off to the south later Sunday and Monday. High pressure brings more weather than many realize, and we’ll see that the next 3 days, with a cool gusty breeze today as the ground dries out from yesterday’s showers and plenty of sun shines, though a few fair weather clouds will pop up and float across the sky in parts of the region as the sun heats the moisture lifting off the ground. We’ll see patches of high cloudiness at times as well crossing the sky from northwest to southeast especially tonight and part of Sunday as it starts to warm up aloft. But tonight, it will be clear enough and calm enough with high pressure moving overhead for good radiational cooling and areas of frost forming. Beyond the holiday weekend comes a cold front with just a risk of passing showers Tuesday. Low pressure to the south will track northeastward and pass well offshore with no impact. Another high pressure area moves in Wednesday with dry and nice October weather.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 15-25 MPH through midday, diminishing this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of frost especially valleys, swamps, bogs, and other relative low areas. Lows in the 30s except 40-45 urban areas and immediate shore. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind light W early then WSW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-48 interior valleys, 48-53 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Highs 68-75.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-52. Highs 58-65.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
A chill-off with fair weather October 15-16 and a few rain/snow showers possible October 17-18. Temperature moderation with fair weather October 19.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)…
In contrast to what I thought recently, the pattern will still be dominated by a northern jet stream but it will be a little more amplified in a ridge West, tough Northeast configuration, which points to cooler than normal temperatures and a few episodes of unsettled weather, but no major storms. Will refine this with time.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
No changes to previous discussion. On to the forecast.
TODAY: A bit of sunshine eastern areas early morning otherwise mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers developing west to east midday on. A few brief downpours possible. Highs in the 60s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH but occasional gusts of 30 MPH or greater possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing west to east late. Lows 45-50 except lower 50s seacoast region of NH and eastern MA. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Clouds lingering early morning far eastern areas with even a shower around Cape Cod, then remainder of day sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost. Lows in the 30s except lower 40s immediate shoreline. Wind diminishing.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. W breeze.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. WSW breeze.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s to near 80. SW breeze.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
A mainly dry pattern with variable temperatures near to below normal with cool shots coming early and late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
Minimal brief rain risk may visit a time or two from disturbances in an otherwise dry pattern with variable temperatures averaging around normal.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
Weather changes courtesy a fast-flowing polar jet stream during the next several days. First, high pressure drops down from eastern Canada and over New England today, having delivered a shot of cooler air after a mild day yesterday, but bringing plenty of sunshine with just a few passing clouds. A quickly-moving disturbance will pass north of the region Friday night and early Saturday, dragging another front through. This one, unlike its predecessor, will have more moisture with it and bring a few rounds of showers from west to east between midday and late evening Friday. Quite a bit of wind will also accompany the passages of this disturbance and front. Though some cloudiness may linger as the front slows down offshore for a low pressure ripple, expect a dry day Saturday along with plenty of sun overtaking the sky and a cool and gusty breeze. High pressure comes right across the region Saturday night which will be a very chilly night, producing the first frost in some locations. Sunday and Monday (Columbus Day) will bring fair weather and a warming trend as high pressure shifts off to the south and a west to southwest flow sets up.
TODAY: Mostly sunny – few passing fair weather clouds midday then less sun evening from higher clouds in the western sky. Highs 58-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH through midday becoming light variable afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy – increasing high and some middle clouds west to east. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable evening, light S overnight.
FRIDAY: A bit of sunshine eastern areas early morning otherwise mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers developing west to east late morning on. A few brief downpours possible. Highs in the 60s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH but occasional gusts of 30 MPH or greater possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing west to east late. Lows 45-50 except lower 50s seacoast region of NH and eastern MA. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Clouds lingering early morning far eastern areas with even a shower around Cape Cod, then remainder of day sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost. Lows in the 30s except lower 40s immediate shoreline. Wind diminishing.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. W breeze.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. WSW breeze.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s. SW breeze.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Low pressure attempts to move up from the south but probably misses “wide right” or “out to sea” while a weakening front approaches from the west October 13 with mild air and a slight chance of showers. Return to mainly dry weather thereafter with 2 shots of cool to very cool air possible.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Minimal brief rain risk may visit a time or two from disturbances in an otherwise dry pattern with variable temperatures averaging around normal.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
Cold front passes this evening and changes the mild weather of today into a cooler tomorrow, but both days very nice with plenty of sun. Stronger cold front with more moisture to work with approaches Friday then crosses Friday night with lots of clouds and some showers, though not a widespread significant rain event. Front exits by early Saturday with dry, windy, and cool weather returning during the day and fair weather on Sunday as high pressure dominates.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH then diminishing.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers mainly afternoon and night. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Lots of clouds southern and eastern areas with maybe a lingering shower near Cape Cod, then a sun/cloud mix and gusty wind. Lows in the 40s. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
Fair and mild weather to round out Columbus Day Weekend on October 12. A few showers October 13. Fair and cooler weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)…
Quick air mass changes but overall pattern features a few mild days and brief cool shots with mainly dry weather.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
Other than a cold frontal passage Wednesday night that you will only notice for its making Thursday cooler than Wednesday, and another cold frontal passage that you will notice a little more because of its clouds/showers on Friday, not much else will be going on other than great weather this period.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind light NW.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-47 inland valleys, 47-52 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-72. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs in 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
A shower risk around October 14 otherwise dry weather. Variable temperatures averaging out to near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
No change to the overall dry pattern with temperatures near to above normal.

1:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
After lingering ocean chill today between a train of low pressure far offshore that includes Joaquin and the system that gave SC flooding rain, and high pressure to the north. After this, it’s back to the DRY and MILD pattern for the balance of this week, and that should come as no surprise because it is the long term regime. A few chilly days, as we saw to start October, does not mean we’re suddenly in a brand new weather pattern, nor does it mean that Winter’s here. There’s a season called Autumn that actually comes before Winter, and we just saw that season get underway recently. If it seems like I’m writing with a bit of a sarcastic edge, congratulations! You’re very observant. My point here is that people need to realize that weather is weather, seasons are seasons, and they can be highly variable, but they still go as they go. Is a hurricane, such as the strong one that battered the Bahamas, unusual? No. Hurricanes are a natural part of the Earth’s quest to find uniform temperature throughout its atmosphere, only to be thwarted by the sun. Is an “extreme” rain event like the one that hit SC unheard a bizarre occurrence? Define “bizarre” and then we’ll see. These events happen too, more rarely in any given location, but they do occur. And it’s important for one to keep in mind that our history of observing and measuring such events only goes back but a very short time in the history of the planet, not to mention they are impacting an ever-growing population. So, we label them what we like, but the one simple fact remains: they are weather events, products of the atmosphere. If we’re in the way, we’re going to be impacted. And now more people are in the way, so since there is a direct proportion in play here, naturally more people are going to be impacted. So now that we have that cleared up, what kind of things will be impacting southern New England after today? How about high pressure moving down from Canada and providing great weather Tuesday through Thursday? Sounds good to me. And after that? A cold front on Friday will bring a chance of showers, exact timing not known but leaning toward the afternoon/evening for the threat of showers at this time. Forecast? Read on…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with clouds most dominant eastern MA and RI, then partly to mostly sunny afternoon with clouds remaining most prevalent southeastern MA. Highs 58-65, coolest Cape Cod, mildest north central MA to south central NH. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty, strongest coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from near 40 interior valleys to near 50 shoreline. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs 65-75.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. PM showers possible. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
Dry October 10-13. Chance of showers October 14. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
Dry pattern with very limited rain chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
This discussion would essentially be the same as yesterday’s so just to summarize, northeast wind flow continues through Monday then shifts to northerly Tuesday as Hurricane Joaquin and a follow up low pressure area track far southeast of New England while a big high pressure area sits to the north. A new high builds down by the end of the period solidifying the trend back to dry weather here. Coastal flooding at times of high tide will still be an issue into or through Monday before subsiding.
TODAY: Lots of ocean clouds but intervals of sun. Patchy drizzle eastern coastal areas at times. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows 47-54. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Highs around 70.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 44-51. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
High pressure exits with a warm-up October 9, but a risk of showers at night until the early part of October 10 as a cold front passes. Dry weather returns during October 10 and lasts the remainder of the period with a brief cool shot then a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
Shower risk to start this period then a return to dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal, coolest October 15-16, warmest October 17-18.

2:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
Sprawling high pressure north of New England exerts enough influence to keep most rain out of the picture here in southern New England this weekend, but with not quite enough push to get rid of all the cloudiness. There will be some lingering patchy very light rain today as a remnant of the moisture source to our south (producing very heavy rain in the Carolinas) but this risk will diminish as the day goes on, and then precipitation will be limited to mainly patches of drizzle in eastern areas from low level ocean moisture as a healthy northeast to east air flow continues. This will continue to some degree into the start of the new week though the winds will turn more to the north with time, all this as Hurricane Joaquin passes well to the south and eventually east of southern New England by Tuesday. What we will see from the overall air flow and added to by the hurricane will be high seas offshore and big waves and swells coming into the shoreline areas, resulting in some flooding at high tide times in prone areas. Though cloudiness may linger into the early part of the week, the threat of rain will be pretty much non-existent as dry air works down from the north.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Patchy very light rain anywhere morning and midday. Patchy drizzle coastal areas. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.
TONIGHT & SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 45-52. Highs 60-67.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows 47-54. Highs 64-71.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 47-52. Highs 60-67.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
High pressure brings bright and dry weather October 8 then moves offshore with a warm-up October 9 with fair weather to start and a shower threat late as a cold front approaches. High pressure brings fair and cooler weather October 10 and milder October 11 – a nice looking weekend. Fair/warm October 12.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Shower risk to start this period then a return to dry weather. Briefly cooling then moderating.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
Joaquin will pass well southeast of New England late Monday and Tuesday at which time our weather will be improving. Before that we’ll be locked into the northeast to east wind flow between a front to the southeast and a big high pressure area over southeastern Canada, with lots of clouds. Wettest weather will be today with only spotty light rain/drizzle over the weekend.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain return from south to north. Highs 47-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly Cape Cod. Chance of drizzle. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle mainly eastern and southern areas. Lows 45-55. Highs 55-65.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
Dry weather October 7-9 with a milder trend. Showers possible around October 10-11 and continued mild.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation near to below normal.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
Some of the uncertainty is becoming more certain. That is, we’re starting to get a better idea of the future path of Joaquin, and this forecast will be adjusted accordingly. Before that, we still have the front that went by yesterday sitting offshore and close enough to hold lots of cloudiness in the region including a chance of some additional wet weather, especially Friday and especially Boston southeastward. Additionally, some coastal flooding will be possible at high tide times still during the next few days from persistent northeast wind and astronomically high tides. For now, going to shift the thinking with Joaquin to a further east scenario which would keep the hurricane offshore with no landfall on the US East Coast and only a risk of fringe effects in this area. Still enough uncertainty in the forecast to not let guard down.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain mainly southeast of Boston. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially Boston area southeastward. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH or greater.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially south. Lows 50-55. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially east. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
Return to fair weather early in the period with seasonable temperatures. A warming trend follows with a risk of showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Pattern again will favor the long term trend of milder than drier than average conditions.

12:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
A lot to cover because in comparison to recent weather, it’s an action-packed 5 days ahead. Now a word of caution: Don’t misread what I say here. My approach is always to take a step back and see what I am most certain of, explain it as best I can, and separate that from what I’m not sure of and lay out the scenarios or tell you what I think is most likely to happen regarding that. I’m also not going to hide from the fact that this week’s pattern is far different than what I was calling for during last week for this week. But that’s weather. A couple missed details and your entire medium range forecast is finished. But this is why we update this blog every day. Things change sometimes, and this time they did. So enough primer. Let’s get to the actual paint job then see what may need another coat or 2 later. A cold front will settle southeastward across southern New England during today, creating its own lift as it pushes a warm and muggy air mass out of the region. This lift will be enhanced today by a low pressure area moving up from the Mid Atlantic into southern New England just ahead of the front, and finally linking up with it before exiting. This low will send some downpours through the region during the morning and midday with a few additional downpours possibly trailing behind the departing low later. I think this moves quickly enough that the most common rain amounts will be in the 1 to 2 inch range. Spotty higher amounts are possible, especially northwest of Boston during the morning and possibly over far southeastern MA later in the day as the front finally makes it to that area. And then comes a bit of a break as the front sits offshore and high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. This high will be rather large and sprawling, not close enough to push it’s clear, dry air in, but enough to create a moderate to strong north to northeast air flow across all of New England Thursday and Friday. The impact from this will be large waves and rough surf along the coast, especially north-facing and east-facing shores, where coastal flooding is possible during high tide times. Additionally, it appears that the front that comes through today and sits offshore through Thursday may bend back westward across the region during Friday, sending more rain into the region from east to west. It may move far enough westward to leave us in a lull for much of Saturday. All the while the high will continue to be stretched out to the north of the region and he wind will turn more easterly on Saturday. Now, while all of this is going on, we’ll be keeping an eye on Joaquin, a tropical storm as of this writing but forecast to become a category 1 to 2 hurricane as it mills around east of the Bahamas through Thursday. It’s what happens with it after that which is the big question. The scenarios are wide-ranging, but I can see the most likely one at this time being one in which the storm is drawn northward starting on Friday and continuing through early Sunday before it takes a turn to the northwest and possibly makes a landfall later Sunday somewhere in the Middle Atlantic. It is important to note and remember that this is just one scenario, the one I feel is most likely, but far from a certainty. A set-up like this would send an area of significant rain northward into southern New England later Sunday. Though we would not see the strongest winds from the actual storm in this scenario, with high pressure still holding on to the north, there would be some significant wind between it and the storm system. So now to simplify all this into a detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers in the morning becoming numerous to scattered during the afternoon. Some heavy rain. Chance of thunder with some of the downpours. Humid. Temperatures steady in the 60s may fall into the 50s west and north of Boston by late. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to N from west to east across the region.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few showers. Areas of fog. Lows 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Temperatures in the 50s. Gusty NE wind.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Slight risk of showers and patchy drizzle. Temperatures rise into the 60s. Gusty E wind.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives south to north, may become heavy late. Temperatures in the 60s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Based on current thinking, the remains of Joaquin in the form of broad low pressure would track northeastward from the northern Mid Atlantic through New England with additional showers and wind Monday October 5, diminishing as the low exits Tuesday October 6, followed by dry and breezy weather October 7-8 with a warm up by October 9.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
Showers possible early in the period followed by a return to dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.