The Week Ahead

120 Comments

1:41AM

Summary…  Another week in which the overall temperature will be somewhat above normal,  and again no significant snowstorms are in the offing. By the MLK Jr. Day Weekend, we’ll see colder weather and some threat of snow showers. The biggest story of the week will be the Thursday wind/rain event.

Breakdown… Monday: A bubble of high pressure brings plenty of sun and cool weather. Tuesday: Low pressure tracking SE of  Cape Cod throws clouds in for the morning and a weak cold front coming down from the north adds a few more clouds to midday, but any precipitation from the low stays offshore and the front is not likely to produce anything other than a scattered rain or snow shower mainly over hilly areas well N &  W of Boston. Wednesday: Starts sunny, ends cloudy as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Thursday: Stormy, but not snow. Wind and rain as very mild temperatures dominate. Low pressure is expected to track northeastward passing near or over Cape Cod by evening. Friday: Low pressure is beyond the region and gusty west winds and cooler air return, with a chance of a few rain showers as it remains mild (cold air is stuck back to the northwest and waits for a cold front to get through the region before it really starts moving in). Weekend: Colder air moves in, but not severely cold. Snow showers are possible at times, especially Sunday as a weak wave of low pressure moves across the region. MLK Jr. Day on Monday may see the cold air reinforced somewhat.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 36-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Low 30-35. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Isolated rain or snow showers possible in the hills far northwest of Boston late afternoon. High 41-46. Wind S around 10 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 26-31. Wind W around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 41-46. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain & wind. Low 40. High 50.

FRIDAY: AM rain showers. PM sun/clouds. Morning high 45 then cooling.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 33.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 18. High 32.

MONDAY – MLK JR. DAY: Variably cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 16. High 29.

120 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks for the update TK.

    Interesting to note how much colder the 00z euro was for Thursday storm. Still shows rain for coastal areas but showing accumulating snow for interior areas. like the NWS said this morning that it’s only 1 run of the euro showing this but for sure something to keep an eye over the next 24 hrs.

  2. Funny, the 00z EURO gave even some coastal areas 2-4″ of snow.
    Even the 06z GFS has this
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120109%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=108&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=01%2F09%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  4. I might finally start to bite on sustained cold in the longer term. Models are starting to be a little more consistent with it. We’ll have to watch the big ridge in the west at the end of the period to see if it moves east and surges more mild air in here toward the end of the month–I wonder if the northern branch will be strong enough at that point to cut any return flow off south of us.

  5. Scott I saw that, just can’t bite as its the only run of the EURO showing this scenario so far. Let’s see what the 24 hours have to say.

  6. I still say we get snow event next weekend. During three day weekend or by mid week. Plowable event between between sat 1/14- and say thursday 1/18. This will be a sneakup storm. I feel strongly.

  7. Hmmm….

    I feel that something is up. I want to see the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Name even.

    We shall see.

  10. I thought a few days ago the Thursday event would be a minor snowmaker for the interior – mountains. It’ll be close to a benchmark storm, in fact. I had said it would move over Chatham, and I think that this will verify. We’ll get rain in the Boston area.

    I’m still not sold on sustained cold next week. I know there is more consistency in the models – thankfully! But, I am taking a wait-and-see approach as it is still almost a week away.

    I’m just glad today doesn’t feel like it did on Saturday. That was a downer for me. Great weather in April, yes (when we often don’t get great weather), but not in January. Good lord, I was practically talking to my plants and trees telling the buds not to sprout. It’s not time yet. And then imploring the birds that mating now is not a good idea (some owls do mate in late January, but that’s an exception – for those of you in the burbs, listen late at night in a few weeks time for the screech owls’ mating calls, it’s a beautiful thing and the closest thing to a sign of spring in mid-winter that we have).

  11. today mostly sunny highs in the upper 30s
    tonight and tuesday more clouds than sun highs in the mid 40s, lows in the uper 20s
    tuesday night increasing clouds with lows in the mid 20s
    wednesday more clouds than sun highs in the low 40s.
    wednesday night mostly cloudy a chance of light snow and rain.
    thursday possible early mixing of snow, sleet and rain( could be bad for early commuters. should change to all rain by mid morning. highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
    thursday night rain ending possibly mixing with snow late
    friday partly cloudy chance of afternoon snow showers. highs in the upper 30s falling durring the afternoon. windy. cold front moves through.
    friday night through sunday partly sunny highs in the low to mid 30s, lows in the mid teens to low 20s.
    this upcoming storm for thursday could give the ski areas some much needed natural snow and after wards can add to it with man made snow if they want to.

  13. A hazzard weather outlook has beeen posted. things are changing a will be even more by weekend. information received noaa weather site. The snowshowers they predict for this weekend, I predict this will be are first big snowstorm. There was a storm for next weekend that went out to sea- lets see what happens. I really believe this.

  14. The NAO and AO are two keys if we are going to get sustained cold and the opportunity for Noreaster’s.
    Still thinking a rainorma for Thursday but lets see what tune the 12z runs say. Behind the storm system temps back to where they should be for winter this weekend.

  18. If the 12z EURO and GFS does not show snow, then it was just a fluke.
    With that ridge building in Alaska, the weather we’ve been having is going bye bye for some time.

        1. But if Henry is correct, this winter could very well be salvageable. Dust off your winter scale, Jimmy. 🙂

  20. Take a look at the loop for 6Z GFS, plenty of shots at snow.. Granted its an off run but something to keep an eye on.

    Also as HM pointed out the 6Z GFS shows a potential for snow for Friday as well with a 2nd low developing.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F09%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. There is that HIGH to the North that was depicted in a GFS run
      many days ago. Interesting…..
      1000MB-500MB thickness is still a bit to our North, making
      it a tricky rain/snow forecast. Could go either way, but probably
      still RAIN near the coast. We shall see.

  23. I agree Old Salty I think its a rain event for the coast. I am not sold on wintry precipitation for the interior just yet. I would need to see a few more runs. It will be interesting what the 12z EURO says and is there consistency with 0z run.

  24. It may be interesting what the tv mets say tonight with Thursday’s storm…potential snowfall maps for interior SNE may be needed soon and even the coast might have a very slim chance. The recent NWS Boston forecast now has temps in the low 40s when before temps were upper 40s-near 50. This could end up being a much colder storm than expected. We will see.

  27. OS you are very correct about coastal rain, if you look at precip type it has rian within 495 but we are threaqding the needle if this track holds.

  28. Maybe this is the one that surprises all of us, so far this winter we have seen some snow chances just end being rain, so maybe this is the opposite. I guess one can only hope!!!!

    1. Hadi,

      The 12Z Euro will hold the key. The 0Z had even Boston in SNOW!!!!
      So let’s see what it says. As you are saying, perhaps this will be the
      Surprise snow event of the season!!!??????

      Btw, if I remember back to 1978 and the year of the big blizzard in February, there was a storm around the 2st of January or so, that was ORIGINALLY
      forecasted to be RAIN!! It turned into 22 inches of snow at Boston.

      So I guess you just never know. WOULD like to see the NAM come on board though.

    2. Stellwagen at 45, getting there. IF we had a Big cold high banked to the North,
      that water temp would be a non-issue. We have something up there, not
      sure it would be enough. We shall see.

      Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
      (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
      Last Updated: Jan 9 2012, 9:04 am EST
      Mon, 09 Jan 2012 09:04:00 -0500
      Temperature: 27.3 °F (-2.6 °C)
      Wind: Northwest at 9.0 MPH (7.78 KT)
      Wind Chill: 18 F (-8 C)
      Visibility: 1.60 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1025.3 mb
      Water Temperature: 45.1 °F (7.3 °C)
      Wave Height: 0.6 m (1.97 ft)
      Dominant Period: 8 sec

    4. HarveyWCVB Harvey Leonard
      The Thursday storm is trending colder…increasing chance of accumulating snow, especially north and west of Boston

  30. Look at the 12Z GFS for 1/23 bam another storm with plenty of cold air. Things are gonna get very interesting around here.

  31. John Benson… your original post is up. I had thought I’d done it. Site admin was lacking this weekend. Please accept my apology.

  32. Did you also notice that the 12gfs shows a clipper type storm right on the heals or maybe a front coming through with some precip as well

  33. NWS Tauton, discussion of Wed-Thurs Event:

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…
    THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK
    AND PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE UPCOMING NOREASTER. IN GENERAL…
    THE GFS/GGEM INDICATES THIS WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR ALL BUT
    FAR NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH WHERE SOME WET SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE
    FOR A TIME. HOWEVER…THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH COLDER THAN
    THE OTHER MODELS AND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCHES OF
    SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT…THE ECMWF
    INDICATES THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MA. THE
    MAIN QUESTION ON PRECIP TYPES WILL BE HOW STRONG THE HIGH ENDS UP
    BEING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WHERE THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETS UP.

    WE CERTAINLY DON/T WANT TO JUMP ON ONE MODEL RUN EVEN IF ITS THE
    ECMWF AND MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER…IT
    APPEARS THAT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW IN
    THE INTERIOR THAN WE HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. THERE COULD
    EVEN BE A TOUCH OF ICE. WILL PROBABLY KNOW A LOT MORE IN THE NEXT
    24 HOURS TO SEE IN WHICH DIRECTION THE MODELS TREND. ITS ALMOST
    IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY TO MAKE A DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC
    AREAS AT THIS TIME. BASICALLY…RAIN IS MORE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL
    PLAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE INTERIOR. OF COURSE…THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON
    THE EXACT TRACK.

  34. Temps for rest of week-
    1.TUESDAY- 43/27
    2.WEDNESDAY- 42/25
    3.THURSDAY-49/32
    4. FRIDAY- 36/31
    5. SATURDAY- 31/19

      1. I’m trying to see where this is in TKs forecast. I see rain thurs but no indication of an event wed nite into thurs

  39. So when do you think the models change to a warmer solution? 🙂

    I am not hopeful for the south shore but would like the ski area to pick up some natural snow.

  40. Both the GFS and EURO show two seperate streams and not phasing which is helping lock the cold air in the interior, so if they continue to be seperate I do not think it will be warm. If they phase then the warm air come in big time and right now a phased solution does not look likely. We shall see what the EURO says

  42. Looks about the same maybe a tad warmer, still shows snow even to the coastal plain but minima. Big time snows for the mountains!! Joshua you should be happy!!!

  43. This still looks like a mostly rain event for coastal areas(some snow on the front end) and as you go further NW chance are much better for accumilating snow. the 540 is little further on this run vs the 00z run.

  45. I see all rain in the Boston to Providence corridor, north and west of Boston snow is possible but u know what they say if it doesn’t snow in Boston it didn’t snow at all, I think for the vast area of the metro populations will continue there snow drought, have a great day

  46. FYI. Woods Hill Weather is making no changes to the forecast at this point, except to possibly drop Thursday’s high temp slightly and MAYBE introduce a mix at the start in far NW portions of the forecast area (i.e., outside 495 north of the pike).

    No snowcover + warm ground + warm ocean + models that don’t really have any idea about this = cold bias. I know other factors come into play, but I’m betting the ones in the equation weigh too much.

  47. From a very trusted colleague and former coworker: “I hope you’re not buying into the GFS.”

    I realize the Euro has a net colder trend on the last 2 runs, hence the edge toward colder, but not a big jump, on my part.

  48. Anyone notice this on the 12z GFS?
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120109%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=105&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F09%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  49. I would agree with your thoughts after looking at the euro.
    Charlie I gate to agree but the snow drought looks to continue:(

  50. Typical GFS model: Opening all the gifts before Christmas Day and then realizing they were for someone else…

  51. You guys seem to be biting everything that comes along LOL. Thursday is a rain event for us. Hadi yes It will be warm on Friday. I told you guys watch the weekend into midweek next week for snow. To warm after today guys.

    1. At this point I agree that the atmosphere will be more able to support snow starting this weekend. HOWEVER, the key will be getting something to come along and precipitate into it, beyond a weak system on Sunday. Maybe if things hang back and string out a little on some boundary south of New England we can percolate something. But I would not bet money on this scenario right now.

      1. I believe this weak system on Sunday is the surprise storm. I am keeping my day open now for a call in to remove snow.

  52. To go a bit further: The GFS has already “disappointed” snow lovers a handful of times between the week before Christmas and now, calling for some kind of accumulating snow event anywhere from 4 to 15 days in advance. How many of those have verified?

  53. Got to take snow opportunites out in the future with a huge grain of salt. I still see this next storm system as a mostly rain event. Just read the NWS out of Gray Me, and areas in Northern New England could get an accumulating snow from this.

  54. MJO just cruised into phase 7, will it get to phase 8?
    If it does, then we are ready for a major pattern change.

    1. By the time we get there we will be half way done with meteorgical winter as the is 6 weeks left 🙂

      1. We’ll be at the stage where the sun angle and length of daylight makes it impossible to keep any snow pack that gets put down. Last year was a different ballgame. Preliminary snow pack before Christmas, and semi-permanent one from December 26 until forever almost.

        1. It was. We dont have a garage and thus park one car in the driveway, one in the street so we can leave as necessary. With all the snowplow snow on the street sidewalk, both cars were in the driveway for what seemed months. The snowpiles from the driveway were so high, that the low sun couldnt always make it over them and thus the driveway usually remained icy.

  56. Watching ole Petey Bouchard on the 4 o’clock news right now. He’s saying he doesn’t think it’ll be cold enough for anything more than a wintry mix only at the beginning of the storm in the interior. He thinks Boston will certainly be all rain.

    1. I’m with Petey on this one.

      Hi Christie! Haven’t seen you post in a while. Happy 2012 to you!

      1. Hi! I’m always lurking, silently reading the posts and comments, and crossing my fingers for some white stuff. That pre-Halloween storm was wild but it’s been so long that I seem to be experiencing winter withdrawal symptoms.

        Happy New Year!

      2. Woods Hill, you’re very biased on whom you let blog. I guess that is your porogative but I guess I can trash your blog- That is mine!!!

        1. You got an apology earlier. The first comment not getting approved right away was an oversight. You are free to voice your opinion here.

        2. Welcome. When you post if you could use John Benson that would be great. Don’t want any confusion. Thank’s.

  57. I guess it’s too much to ask for snow January!! Blah

    Hi Christine maybe you will bring us some snow by blogging again:)

    1. Hadi I still see snow for the weekend, plowable in the timeframe say sat 1/14-
      thurs 1/19. Lets see if this pans out. I still am going with above for snow. It is right now depending on how long this cold front can stay. I think Feb will be a very tough month. I do also believe March continues to do what It has been doing, being raw and rainy.

    1. Thanks for the head’s up Jimmy…and snowing pretty good at the moment. It would be strange if DC ends up with more snow to date than Boston’s current 1-inch received during the pre-Halloween storm.

  59. The 8-14 CPC outlook has the cold air gone again and warmth returning to the entire south in a zonal manner. I am now wondering if this cold coming this weekend is yet another temporary pattern change and that dreaded SE ridge will return in full force.

    Just when I was getting excited about winter again…. 🙁

    1. The snow is knocking Philip. Hang in there. We will by no means go snowless, not that you said that. Charlie thinks It will though.

      1. No John, I don’t believe we go snowless for the winter or January for that matter. I am just wondering out loud though if there is one final warm spell by month’s end before we get more consistent cold & snow for February & March. I guess I was hoping this current warmth would be our last for awhile.

          1. John, I am leaning towards the 17th (Tuesday following MLK weekend) or just beyond instead, but things may change still. The Thursday storm still might have surprises too.

            1. Good we are still in the same thinking. But be aware of Sunday into Monday for somthing that I think is coming togeather.

        1. Sorry Charlie…if February and even March brings snow that mets are now hinting at, that 1936-37 record will stand. I am not very confident though if we get anywhere near normal snowfall, however. We will have to wait and see about that scenario.

  60. Something being shown on the GFS for the 15th, I wonder if it will be there tomorrow. I point it out because of all the cold air that would be in place for a storm.

    1. I have been saying this all along, but not sure If anyone is hearing me. Plowable storm next weekend, or right after. Those snowshowers for Sunday
      will be being talked about. I have just postponed my plans for Sunday, as I think I will be called in to work snow. My guess is Sunday but give me some wiggle room.

  61. Actually, the 8-14 day outlook temperature map looks very similar to Henry Margustiy’s map of awhile back. His map had the entire south still warm, but the northern states as well as NE would have cold and storms running from west-to-east just to our south bringing snow from time to time.

    So after thinking about it, the CPC looks on schedule after all. 🙂

    1. Just got done reading. There will be a storm in the time frame of 1/14- 1/19.
      Even though he is thinking 17th maybe give or take a day before or after.

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