Ocean Rules

80 Comments

4:02PM

No, I wasn’t hiding from my bad forecast yesterday, though I felt like it. I fell victim to something I have before but on occasion have noticed. This time it escaped me. I did expect a back-door front to move in late yesterday, NOT in the wee hours of the morning. What accelerated this process? The answer lies in the thunderstorms that went through in the hours just before the marine air came plowing into eastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. As those thunderstorms moved offshore and weakened, they became ruled by downdrafts, or downward moving air. Once this air reaches the surface (land, ocean), it spreads out. There was a sufficient amount of this to basically create a new boundary of maritime air, which invaded in the pre-dawn hours. This resulted in my missing daytime temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees in some cases, and of course the sky in eastern areas was basically overcast all day, not the at least partly sunny that I had been expecting. Once again, owned by Mother Nature.

Onward…

The ocean is showing us how it can be in control even today as much of the region has been stuck in the cool maritime air with lots of clouds dominating.  This stays with us through tonight, and wet weather becomes involved as a disturbance from the west moves through the region in 2 parts tonight and on Friday. The first is pretty much in the area already, with some showers spreading across parts of north central and eastern MA as of 4PM, and these will be around through early evening possibly even mixed with a few pellets of sleet. More numerous showers will be around on Friday. All of this will be offshore by Saturday but just enough troughing overhead may result in some lingering clouds for at least part of the day. By Sunday, and much of next week, a high pressure ridge building over the Northeast will mean fair weather, and a warming trend. Temperatures of 70 or higher are possible in many areas by Tuesday through midweek, but the coastal areas will be a wildcard, as a relatively weak gradient may allow seabreezes to develop at least a couple of the days. Because of this, temperature forecasts for next week are not with high confidence.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH SUNSET: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possibly mixed with sleet crossing parts of eastern MA then diminishing. Temperature near 40. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle and a slight chance of rain showers. Low 33-38. Wind E up to 10 MPH diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY:  Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle early. Rain showers likely throughout the day. High 45-50. Wind calm then becoming S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas fog in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 39-44. Wind light variable becoming N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 51-56. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 67, probably cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 72, probably cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 75, possibly cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 78, possibly cooler coast.

80 thoughts on “Ocean Rules”

    1. Low clouds near shore and south of NYC showing motion of lower surface winds associated with high pressure.

      Higher clouds, showers and thunderstorms associated with higher level winds (jet stream). Nicely shows different wind direction comparing aloft to surface.

      In north central NH into western ME, I don’t know if that’s snow cover or low stratus/fog that didn’t burn off all day.

    1. I would expect them to be seeing fair weather on a daily basis at least through Thursday, with daytime highs in the 80-85 range.

    1. Hey Vicki.

      I was at an educational related conference (differentiated instruction) at the Crowne Plaza on the Natick/Framingham line. Boy, that rt 9 is an interesting ride from 128. Kind of reminds me a bit of Rt 1 on the north shore.

  4. An observation from the surface, or the other perspective from the satellite, noticed that the cloudcover which had been ocean stratus is now solid mid level cloudiness and moving WNW to ESE, remnants of the storms in NY associated with the first part of the disturbance. Quite a change in the sky just to remain mostly cloudy in eastern MA. 🙂

    1. It’s so weird that 30 miles inland where I am it’s cloudy but with frequent sunny breaks since around 2pm I actually thought today was nice, thanks tk

  6. So TK…are 80 degree temps now totally out of the question for next week? I may end up being completely wrong, but I am still wondering about the very end of the month and especially first week of April.

    1. Not at all. If we get west wind strong enough to overcome any sea breeze, we’ll go to 80 even at the coast between Wednesday & Friday.

  7. All next week looks like 60’s/70’s, I can’t believe I was in garage and there are my 2 shovels, never needed them, there’s a 1st for everything 🙂

    1. Charlie, where do you live? I live in Boston and needed my shovel twice in January (albeit barely) and once for the Leap Day storm only due to some stubborn slush on my steps that never melted during the day. The sidewalk was bare.

      Also, I never needed a shovel for the pre-Halloween event. Once the sun got to work, any slush (1″) melted quickly.

  8. I am into March Madness, but if the B’s don’t win tonight, I am going to fall on my sword.

  9. Harvard lost to Vandy 79-70…very disappointed TK? 🙁

    I really thought they had a shot of winning a couple games since they weren’t in a particularly tough bracket at least early on. Maybe next year. 🙂

  10. I have a perfect bracket so far and by saying that I might have just jinxed myself.
    I have Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State, and Kansas as my final four teams with Kentucky winning the title.

  11. My bracket is perfect too. I’ll let you know how I did when it’s over………….btw when is it over? 😉

  12. maritime air will continue to effect most of coastal new england as an upper level disturbance moves through.. The mixture of lower maritime air and an upper level disturbance will allow some heivy showers and thunder storms across most areas with areas of fog,mist and drizzle. greatest chance of thunderstorms will be western areas of the state. temps will range from the low to upper 50s across the interior, with low 40s and upper 30s across the eastern half of the state . It is going to be a raw day. it will be a good day to look at the radar and satilites and see whats going on as it happens

  13. I didn’t bother with NCAA brackets this year for the first time in years. It seems lately every time I pick teams that are likely to end up in the final four, 2 or 3 of them end up being eliminated midway in the tournament. Last year all 4 of my picks were eliminated early. Maybe I’ll have the stomach to do brackets next season especially if more local teams get in. 😉

  15. Anybody have any predictions of how much severe thunder storms we may have this spring and summer. I wonder if tuesday night was an early indication of what may happen.

  16. Been going through the blog archives tonight. I just have to say that this blog is awesome 🙂

      1. Hey Longshot… It was a great game. 21 out of the 23 NCAA tournaments a 12 has beaten a 5 seed.
        It looks like I am in trouble with UCONN right now.

  20. It will be interesting if trees start budding by months end assuming we get those 80 degree temps next week. It has been many years to the best of my memory of budding trees in March. Most times they don’t really get going until mid-April at the earliest.

    TK, any thoughts on the first week of April? I still have the feeling it could be a bit below normal.

    2. Not quite there yet…but sometime soon we’re going to get chilly and stay that way for a while (at least a few days).

    3. I see u keep asking but I’m not sure what your asking, what r u talking about with the 1st Week of April? Just curious, I c asking this?

  21. I may get a lashing after posting this but late next week if we get the right wind direction, some areas could make a run at 90.

  22. Hello from Mandalay Burma!! 102 currently but dry heat here. Hoping to bring back some of the heat with me in Sunday for next week!!

    2. Everytime I got to Arizona that’s what they say, ohh it’s 108 but it’s a dry heat haha just saying bud, 🙂 glad ur having fun and no please don’t bring any of that back home 🙂

    3. Hi Hadi – it’s great that you are popping in to say hi – what a wonderful trip for you. If you don’t mind, can you keep the 100 deg temps there and maybe just bring back some 70s 😉

  23. Parts of SE Mass with clear skies and light winds…many 33 and 34F readings.

    Top of Mt Washington…….36F.

  24. I was watching coverage of the area affected by the tornado in SE Michigan last night. I had to listen twice to see if I’d heard right when they said Michigan.

  25. Melissa over on BZ blog has the same title as this one…. great minds think alike, or do u think she visits us once in a while?

  26. Just curious — if the trees pop nearly a month early, but we have a rather average summer, could that lead to an earlier-than-usual foliage season?

    2. Coastal is correct. The foliage will depend more on the weather at the time than the weather beforehand (though that can have some impact in the longer term .. drought, heat, excessive moisture, etc.).

  27. a normal early april feel to yesterday and today. then a nice early april weather for the weekend . then april and may weather for the up coming week. It might feel like summer in areas late next week.
    today mostly cloudy chance of showers and thunderstorms some sleet may mix in. highs in the upper 40s
    tonight becoming partly cloudy lows in the upper 30s
    saturday and saturday night mostly sunny highs in the mid 50s lows in the mid 30s
    sunday and monday mostly sunny highs in the upper 60s lows in the mid 40s
    tuesday and wednesday mostly sunny highs in the low to mid 7os lows in the upper 40s and low 50s
    thursday mostly sunny highs in the upper 70s

  29. Oh no Charlie!! Don’t want to bring 102 home but maybe 80 would be nice.

    Burma is a place everyone should visit, it is unreal how beautiful it is. The people are truly what make it a great destination. It was ranked by Lonley planet as the #2 destination in the world to visit.

  32. Well, after 3 days of clouds, rawness and even some rain, I’m ready for the sun to return. Back over 12 hrs of sunlight tomorrow ! It’s like Sept. 24th equivalent or so.

    1. The latest CPC 8-14 day outlook shows “normal” temps for the entire east coast with the heart of the warmth pushed back to the midwest. It will be interesting what future maps show in the coming days. The major cold in Alaska looks to be relaxing eventually as well.

    1. Hi Philip. I will try to remember but my computer is off. I have sons family bday party tomorrow and as long as daughter doesn’t deliver baby I should have computer On by sun. Please do remind me. My mind is unquestionably in other places:)

  35. Stunner in the NCAA tournament with Norfolk St becoming just the fifth 15 seed to beat a two. With the Missouri loss one of my final four teams is out. How is everyone else doing with their bracket?

    3. This is why I didn’t do a bracket this year. The last few years there have been too many of these teams coming out of nowhere and upsetting strong favorites messing up many potential final fours. 😉

  36. Duke is only up by two starting the second half against Lehigh which would be something to have two 15 seeds win in the same tournament.

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