Saturday April 29 2023 Forecast (8:11AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

An upper level low pressure will impact our weather during this entire 5-day period, with 3 associated surface lows helping to determine day-to-day weather during this time. The upper level feature is broad and will be making an initial trip to the northeast into the Great Lakes and then a drift to the east into the Northeast during this time period. Surface low # 1 sits off the Delmarva this morning and is in the process of weakening and dissipating, but has a pretty decent ribbon of moisture / rainfall with it. However, there is some very dry air at mid levels holding tough in response to high pressure located to our northeast, and that will keep the initial rain at bay over a good portion of the region for much of the day, with only remnant patches of showers making it into southern and western portions of the WHW forecast area at times during most of the daylight hours, finally getting into more of the region this evening and tonight as the initial low finishes to dissipate. But once that moisture is in here, it will continue to produce showers while the lower levels moisten up and areas of drizzle and patchy fog evolve as well. This sets up a soggy Sunday with at least drizzle much of the time, and occasional showers continuing. Surface low # 2 to impact us is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning and will be moving rapidly north northeastward up the Appalachian Mountains, passing just west of New England Sunday night and very early Monday. This system will have a more extensive area of moisture with it and will produce widespread showers, some of them heavy, and possible thunderstorms, with the bulk of this activity coming through from south to north during Sunday evening (6 p.m. to midnight window). A dry slot will then work in from the south overnight and be with us on Monday, with fair weather despite some variable cloud cover, and mild air on a southwesterly wind as low # 2 lifts northward and away. Finally, surface low # 3, stacked under the upper low in the Great Lakes region, will move eastward and approach the on Tuesday, bringing showers back from west to east, especially during the afternoon and evening based on current timing. Wednesday’s forecast still hinges on the movement of both the upper level low and surface low # 3, and I expect both to be centered right over our area with lots of clouds and pop up showers, with sun:cloud and dry:rain ratios to be determined.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Light rain possible CT, RI, central MA, and southwestern NH at times, but favoring end-of-day. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Showers likely. Areas of fog/drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Showers likely. Areas of fog/drizzle. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas by later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows 48-55 evening then rising slightly overnight. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH inland with gusts 25-35 MPH, 15-25 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to SW overnight.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure lingers with additional showers possible May 4. Indications that blocking may be strong enough to keep the next low pressure area to the southwest and south and high pressure to the north keeps it dry, but on the cooler side, next weekend into early the following week, but low confidence in this forecast at the moment and will monitor guidance trends.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)

Again low confidence but indications of drier weather overall, and eventually a warming trend potential as well.

67 thoughts on “Saturday April 29 2023 Forecast (8:11AM)”

  7. It’s ironic I’m working in the data / analysis unit currently.

    At first glance, Logan is running 2.6F above average for April. Accurate math, but quite misleading.

    It’s due to those 4 excessively warm/hot days mid month that had massive positive anomolies.

    Logan’s on a 10 day run at below avg temps. It’s 14/14 for the month (above/below).

    The math in 2 days will tell you the month was more than 2 degrees above avg temp wise. But, 26 out of the 30 days will have actually been a very or somewhat different feel.

    1. Tom, thanks for this. Statistics study and presentation really needs to be nuanced, and your post is Exhibit A!

    2. Fascinating. Thank you.

      Oddly some of our trees etc are ahead of last year this time. Oldest and family drove to Charleston vacation week last year and they didn’t see any flowering until at least NJ.

      I suspect those abnormally hot days pushed budding. I know they made a huge difference here. We went from nothing to very noticeable buds during those days

    3. While the aphorism “statistics don’t lie” is true, without proper context they can mislead. This is why averages and even medians can be problematic.

      I’m working on a project on misleading prescription drug ads. Well, you guessed it, there’s plenty of misleading going on there, even when the facts are technically correct. Sometimes it’s relatively benign, like in the case of relative and absolute risk reduction. The former can be deceiving, but is used all the time (often without also presenting absolute risk reduction). Sometimes it’s not so benign when conclusions are drawn about a drug’s comparative safety and efficacy that simply cannot be derived based on the data at hand.

      For this and other reasons I wish we didn’t have DTC ads for drugs on TV, radio, and online media. I find that the practice can be unethical. The only other nation that allows DTC ads is New Zealand.

      1. That’s been a constant issue ever since the sensor was relocated to basically above a freaking asphalt slab. It’s in the wrong place.

    5. This will show you that the straight up numbers, while “accurate” don’t always portray the perception.

      Yes people remember that short-lived but intense warm/hot spell, while most of the rest of the month has run cooler than normal, but at a magnitude not enough to overcome the positive anomaly in that stretch, as you mentioned. This particular month is a great example of this effect.

  11. TK – What will my morning commutes be like tomorrow and Monday 6-7 am? Steady rain or mostly drizzle?

    1. Sunday AM: Overcast, pasty drizzle, fog, frequent showers, stiff easterly wind.

      Monday AM: Broken clouds but may be obscured by a fog, no precipitation, very little wind.

      1. Thanks TK. In the back of my mind I picked Monday as the very worst of the two. Pleasantly surprised as to no precipitation at all for that morning. Thanks again! 🙂

          1. Just a steady sheet drizzle. A soaking drizzle. I think we should be pretty lower level saturated at that time with that as the result.

              1. It’s not really an “official” weather term. Just something some of us meteorologists / weather enthusiasts toss around. Sheet drizzle, paste drizzle, etc. – just descriptive terms.

  12. Quick sports note. While I’m not a fan of the NBA, I have never in my lifetime observed such a competitive 1st round. While I liked basketball in the 1980s, the 1st round was about as predictable as it could be. And home court advantage really meant something. Now we see some really fascinating series in which top seeds are eliminated and home court advantage isn’t what it used to be. NBA is getting to be like the NHL in this regard. That’s a good thing, in my humble opinion.

    1. I wish though that there was more “defense” in today’s NBA. Had the Celtics suddenly gone cold (or even just “cool”) from 3-point land, no way they would have won game 6 the other night. Whoever hits the most from “downtown” wins.

  13. First time in ten years I get to watch my Knicks play in the eastern conference semifinals
    Knicks Celtics conference finals???

  14. Dry air is winning the battle – currently obliterating the rain area as it reaches the western limits of the WHW forecast area.

    This should continue for about 5 to 6 more hours.

  15. Any chance the Sox game gets squeezed in tomorrow before the heavy showers come through? 1:35 PM first pitch…

  16. Just taking a look at some of the 12z guidance regarding the days ahead. This jumps out at me about days 5 & 6 (Wednesday & Thursday).

    I touched on the position of the surface low being key to the sensible weather and this is especially crucial for that day. I think we may, when that stuff approaches later Tuesday, see the surface low initially ride to the north a bit, keeping us on the southwest to west wind side of it, and this may hold into the first part of Wednesday. If this is the case, with the aid of sunny breaks, we could be warmer than I have in my forecast above, but with highs occurring during the morning or midday. After that, the low pressure would shift to the south and we’d end up on the cooler side of it with a temperature drop later on. I think the coolest day of the next unsettled stretch may be Thursday (May 4), when we see maximum combo of cold aloft and delivery of cool air at the surface behind the surface low (which would be to our southeast) and upper level low (which would be centered to our east).

  17. JJ, the Knicks are a great story. They’ve gone through a terrible stretch, really since Patrick Ewing was there. Now they’re definitely a competitive team.

    Of all the players in basketball, I love the way Jimmy Butler of the Heat plays. I know he’s not the best player, but man can he take over a game. Such a competitor.

    In the NHL, unfortunately for the Bruins, the Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk is a great competitor. I like watching him play.

    1. Whether the Bruins lose tomorrow night or a game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, it’s going to be quite devastating around here with so much accomplished during the regular season setting records left and right.

      1. Disappointing is a word I’d use. If sports fans lets this devastate them, they need to re-evaluate priorities. 😉

        1. Yes, disappointing, but anything short of making the finals will be pretty PATHETIC given the season they had.
          Of course, anything could happen in a final 7 game series.
          But they absolutely should make it there.

          1. I hate to say it ( and I hope I’m wrong ) I do lot like the bruins chances at home tomorrow night as they are having some issues & not all but the main thing is Ullmark ( he’s exhausted & it’s starting to show & cost us games . The bruins need to get back to a solid 3 periods of good , smart & disciplined game. I think you now have game 7 do or die & I think the bruins will be in panic mode . Rotation of goalies is what has been working for them & they have not done that ( usually at this level you stay with one unless you need to make that switch ) I’d say at this point you start Ullmark but first sign of trouble or soft goal , you pull him . And if they do loose tomorrow I’d say shame on them , two winnable games they gave away . Of course this is just my opinion only .

  18. Might see a few unscheduled breaks of sun moving into outskirt areas of WHW region even into Metro West as we go through mid afternoon. Dry air still winning the game.

  19. Joshua this whole century being a Knicks fan has been tough with only two playoff series wins which includes the one this postseason. They have only made the playoffs four times this century. There is hope among Knicks fans things are turning around. No matter what happens this series great season considering the best case scenario at the beginning of the season was get into the play in tournament

    1. I don’t watch much basketball, but I saw two games the Knicks played this year and I liked what I saw.

  20. I’m with TK on use of the word “devastating” when it comes to sports disappointments. I will be disappointed for sure if the Bruins lose tomorrow (I expect them to lose, by the way). But I won’t be devastated. I reserve that for truly devastating things like a death or hospitalization in the family, a natural disaster, a missile strike killing civilians in Ukraine or Sudan.

    The last time I was “devastated” because of a loss was in 2003 when Boone took Wakefield deep in Game 7 of the ALCS. I really thought that the curse would never end. But, you know what, it was my two then young kids who told me, “Dad, it’s the Red Sox, we love them anyway. They’ll never win it all, but that’s okay.” They were right. Of course, we know what happened in 2004. They did reverse the `curse.’ They did win it all. But that doesn’t negate what my children were trying to tell me.

    1. I have seen a lot of negativity in people having already decided that they’ll lose game 7.

      They play the games for a reason. The negative Nancies have already handed the series to Florida. It’s 3-3. It’s not over until someone has won their 4th game. What happened prior to this matters not. This is a one-game, winner-take-all situation.

      When the puck drops tomorrow, it’s 0-0.

      1. You’re 100% right, TK. I’m sorry if I sound like a “negative Nancy.” It’s my gut feeling. That’s all. Not scientific or based on anything other than a distressed stomach.

      2. I’m not sure if you saw my post above , I don’t like them tomorrow, but I hope I’m wrong . Florida has been capitalizing on the many bruins mistakes, I think for the bruins what has been going on prior need to stop . Need to be better in net , play the style of game that got you here & do not start slow , need pedal to the metal for 3 or more periods no excuse . Believe me I want them to win but there making it a lot harder than it needed to be

        2. I’ve already seen several posts on social media trashing the team and stating they refuse to watch game 7. You know what I say to these folks? Great, turn your back on your team, but don’t call yourself a fan in front of me, because you’re not a true fan if you ignore them for any reason other than health reasons.

          Otherwise, I don’t think that’s fair. Has the team been disappointing? Yes, in this series, at times. But they’ve also won 3 games in this series. They are .500 in this series. Exactly the same as the regular season against this team. Not sure why this is surprising anybody.

          If anybody thought the Bruins were going to breeze by this team just because they won the presidents trophy and the Panthers “just made it into the playoffs” then they haven’t been watching hockey for long, or haven’t been paying attention to how this game works. 🙂

          I believe in my team. Go Bruins!

    1. I’m sure the coaching staff has considered that option. We’ll see who they go with. 🙂

    2. If Ullmark is letting goals in early tomorrow or call them soft goals Philip, they will pull him . That’s it for hockey talk from me , let’s hope for the best

      1. You get a lot of made up stuff about what the coach said or didn’t say, so I go to real sources. He said he has no issue going with Sway if he feels that’s the right move.

        But we’re not the coaches, we’re the fans. I’ll leave the decisions up to the people paid to make them.

        Just saw another person post they were not watching the game if Ullmark is in net. NOT a fan, sorry. NOT a fan.

  22. I have very little confidence in my Rangers winning tonight and forcing a game seven on Monday but I am a trye fan and will watch the game tonight. Since the Devils made the goalie change down 2-0 in the series the Rangers have scored a total of two goals in games 3-5. If they don’t win the series second straight year blowing a 2-0 series lead. They went out and got Kane and Tarasnko at the trade deadline to win the Cup. If they go out in the first round to me this season is a failure.

  23. I was saying earlier today Rangers fans hoping for a game seven while Bruins fans are surprised they are playing a game seven tomorrow evening.

  25. Bruins have been disappointing maybe its because I am in Miami for a conference and the sport gods want to torture me.

    I also saw the Patriots draft today. I haven’t paid attention as I presented at a conference this week. Anyway. First pick was a very good pick. I would give that an A+ but the middle of the draft disappointed round 3 should have been a receiver/TE not another corner and could have used the 3rd and one or two of the 4ths to get to the front of round 3 to get a good reciever. Boute could be a surprise. Overal I would give the Patriots a B Good start, good ending, 3rd and 4 rounds needed to be better

    1. It is rough if you have allergies. I am trying to kick my week long headache

      I hope tomorrow is better for you

  27. This weather sucks, lol. Nothing makes me want tj move faster than March and April

    B’s will be fine. It will be close going to the 3rd and Boston put it away.

    No team should be beat the C’s if they actually play with their heads. They are the deepest team by a mile. No team brings Brogden off the bench and they barley use Grant William’s. Both are starters on 95% of the teams out here.

    1. Good thing we have this weather. Allows us our agriculture, water supply, and many other good things. 🙂

      1. Speaking of agriculture, I hope we’ll have our local strawberries and peaches. Some years they either fail completely or are in very short supply.

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