Saturday January 11 2025 Forecast (7:54AM)

158 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

While a strengthening storm passes well to our south today and misses the region, it has a weaker upper level cousin with weak surface trough to its north, and that is passing through our region giving us a light snow event. However with the help of a developing mesoscale low and mini version of a NORLUN trough (a type of inverted trough that extends out the back side of the low and pivots around it), the snowfall can be enhanced somewhat in areas along the coast and north of Boston, before the system pulls away into the Gulf of Maine by evening. After that, high pressure to our southwest will nose into New England and provide fair, seasonably chilly weather for our region Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, low pressure will pass to our north, sending a cold front through. This may produce a few snow showers, and also kick up the wind with a slightly colder air mass arriving as we head toward the middle of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow, tapering off in the afternoon but lingering longest north of Boston and along the eastern coastal areas. General accumulation of 1 inch or less south of I-90, 1-3 inches north of I-90 except 3-5 inches in portions of northern MA,southern NH, and some eastern coastal areas. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 14-21. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mosttly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 16-23. Highs 29-36. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

An additional round of snow showers from a disturbance in a cold northwesterly air flow early or mid period, then a snow threat presents itself late in the period as the upper flow shifts to southwest and brings moisture this way from the southern US. Long way to go for details…

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

A shot of colder air follows a beginning-of-period snow chance, and another snow opportunity may follow around January 24.

158 thoughts on “Saturday January 11 2025 Forecast (7:54AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    SNOWING pretty hard here in JP at the moment.
    Looks really Wintry out there.

  2. Thank you TK!

    Nothing exciting down here on the south shore, just some very very light snow. Par for the course these days.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Seeing what Sue said.

    Feather dusting with some flurries flying.

    I’m looking forward to seeing what happens with the mesoscale low.

    1. Love days like this.

      Snow has lightened considerably, but still snowing. 🙂

      We shall see what happens.

  5. This is all synoptic snow / no ocean-effect at this point.

    There may be a little bit of O.E. involved as we enter the baby NORLUN stage up on Cape Ann and later down on Cape Cod, but that will be minimal.

    1. Definitely not hurting, but not adding any snow. If you look closely at the radar loop, one level of echoes all moving southwest to northeast in this area. No lower level echoes moving to the southwest. Later, we will see some of these develop (some with the meso low / trough, some with just the wind flow).

      1. Yes, I have and I too did not see any NE to SW movement.
        I was hoping it was there, but just not visible. Will keep watching.

        thanks

  8. As of 7AM NY has recorded 0.5 inches of snow.
    Any reports for BOS?
    SNOWFALL STANDINGS
    BOS 5.7
    NY 4.2
    I am thinking when the official measurement comes in for BOS they will be up by at least two inches.

      1. AceMaster that means with a negative EPO the cold pattern will persist. The question is can we get moisture to run into the cold air. Depending on the track this could bring opportunities for accumulating snow.

  10. When the NAO comes back toward neutral or slightly positive that’s when we start bringing the main storm track north and Boston’s seasonal snow total starts going up.

  11. I never understand why a lot of people think if you don’t have a negative NAO that is the kiss of death for snowstorms. As you pointed out many times TK when the snow blitz of 2015 happened the NAO was positive. I remember for the blizzard of 2013 the NAO was slightly positive.
    I am hoping when we get around 1/20 that snow window stays open for a few weeks.

    1. Exactly right. It’s not black or white. The NAO is only ONE factor of many. While it’s true that in the general sense, a negative NAO can be better overall for Northeast snow chances, it is not always the case. This time, it was less favorable as it was part of a pattern suppressing the storm track. And I always default to the best and most vivid example, as you noted, the 2015 snow blitz period … positive NAO the entire time, and not only one of the snowiest patterns we’ve had but one of the most sustained cold patterns too.

  12. The radar will be interesting to watch for weather geeks the next several hours. Watch the snow area appear to slow down, and then you’ll eventually notice a consolidation or redevelopment along a line that has a WNW – ESE orientation, quasi-stationary, then a pivot southward. The western extent of that line will determine which areas get “extra” snow accumulation at the end of this event.

  13. Being on the north shore, I suspect I’m good for a total of 3-4.” Been snowing light to moderate for 3 hours now maybe at a rate of 1/2″ per hour. Everything is blanketed. Temp at 30F.

      1. Appreciate your explanation this morning. I wasn’t sure about the dynamics. A mini-NORLUN trough … I’m going to have to remember that one.

  15. No sure I would trust the HRRR this morning. The 13Z run doesn’t even show the snow that is falling now. Something isn’t right.

  18. When we have to consider 2 inches an “overachiever” you know we have been in bad shape for awhile.

  19. Thanks TK. I just did the drive from the South Coast to Long Island – glad I got on road early. Was not a bad drive at all – look like most accumulation near south central Conneticut- going to Melt anyway here when temp gets above freezing.

  20. According to JR last night, it’s been 1,050 days and counting since Boston’s last 6”+ snow event. ❄️

    I do find it interesting how these tv Mets are counting these things.

  26. It did pick up a bit here but didn’t last long. Back to flurries. Nice to see it falling no matter the intensity.

  29. Solar brightness plus the lightest breeze of the ocean has brought us above 32F and everything has melted.

    We had a good 20 mins of steady/moderate snow. I’m guessing an inch worth that has melted. Oh well.

  31. Finished watching a new series on Apple TV last night called
    Before starring Billy Crystal.

    My wife called it a Horror series while I called it a psychological thriller. Billy Crystal was unworldly in his performance! Absolutely outstanding!
    Jacobi Jupe played the troubled child and was equally outstanding. How a child could pull off this part is beyond me.
    He was unbelievably good!!

    If you enjoy this type of show, it is well worth the look. If not, then likely not your cup of tea. 🙂

    1. Thank you, JPD. Is it appropriate for young to mid teens? My granddaughters are fans of shows like the originals and vampire diaries.

      1. Well that might be a bit iffy. It involves suicide (a cancer victim). No sexual scenes, but some violence and perhaps disturbing scenes. But is was oh so good.

  32. Snowing a little better now with a gentle NW drift to the wind.
    However, it “appears” the back end of the precip as shown on radar, is not far away. Will that be it? OR do we have a lull
    and part 2 will begin? Or will there NOT be a part 2?
    Time will tell.

  35. Been snowing here for 6 straight hours … light to occasionally moderate. I might get 3 more hours of this.

  40. I made an update to the blog a couple hours ago and readjusted the total accumulation … 3 areas: <1 south, 1-3 most, 3-5 in the jackpot areas northeastern MA, nearby southern NH as well. This higher potential still does include the eastern coastal areas from the meso feature.

    The snow:water ratio is nearly 20:1.

    1. That looks like a fine scenario to me. We don’t want that rain-snow line moving northward either.

  43. Snow has once again lightened up here. It was REALLY looking interesting for awhile, but not now. 🙂

  47. Snowing heavy now here. Parking lot pavement is starting to become snow covered.

    JPD, is it possible I may end up with more snow than you in JP?

  49. Yes I had to update and tweak a little … this is not unusual when you’re dealing with smaller scale stuff that is a product of multiple interaction. But at least yesterday we started to get a good hint that it wasn’t just going to be a quick 1/2 inch for everybody when the high resolution guidance was updating. This is why this guidance exists. It’s only “good” for shorter time frames, but it’s really good most of the time.

    I saw noted above about the HRRR replacing the NAM. Keep in mind that tweaks can be made to correct for any shortcomings the higher res guidance has. It’s a work in progress and probably one of the reasons the NAM is still chugging along. Things like this are seldom as simple as “switch one off and switch the other one on”. If only. 🙂

    We are now entering the slow “wind-down” phase for this event, but still a little bit to go for both synoptic (in patches) and ocean effect (in clusters / bands).

  52. More synoptic snow moving in here. Snowing a bit harder again.
    Notice a decent OES just South and East of Boston.

  53. Viewed the entire run of the Euro. Theme was a consistent
    baroclinic zone just off shore with most systems staying off shore, but getting hit with at least part of a couple of them.

    Nudge those a bit North and we could have a pretty SNOWY period. Will be interesting to watch. 🙂

    1. For this far in advance, the EPS % chance of >1″ of snow spike pretty decently around January 20.

  56. Just about 2 inches is all so far here, but snowing quite decently at the moment. I figure another hour or so, perhaps a tad more
    and we’re done. Hopefully in time for me to go pick up a pizza
    for dinner. 🙂

  57. If somebody told me that midway through the 3rd period the Bruins would have only 12 shots in the game and Florida, playing at home, had 29 shots, I’d not predict the Bruins would be leading the game.

    Now, can they old on?

  59. Thanks TK. Just some light snow and flurries on and off here today in Coventry. Maybe a half inch accumulation but some has melted despite it staying below freezing today. Grass is just dusted over at this point.

    Nice to see some overachieving 3-4” snow totals coming in!

  60. Really like the look of the pattern on the 12z Euro and even GFS from 1/20 on. I think the GFS is overdoing the next cold intrusion which is leading to more suppression and keeping the storm track more off shore as opposed to the Euro. Should get more active either way with several snow chances after the quiet upcoming week.

  61. Snowing decently. Depending how long it lasts, we “may” make a run at 3 inches here. IF not, will settle for 2 or 2+ inches. Still, given the situation, I’ll take it.

  64. Just had a decent burst down here and everything is white now. Went to the store and the roads were bare. Came out of the store and everything was covered. Now the dilemma of having my newly licensed driver take the car to work or drive him. Definitely leaning towards driving him. He needs to have a snow-covered parking lot lesson first.

  65. Looks like the MESO enhancement is actually focused more from Boston to the South Shore – so the right idea but the wrong placement by HRRR. Bonus snow for southeast of Boston now.

  66. I still have flakes coming down. Been snowing moderate to just flakes for 10 hours. Time to measure.

  67. 1.75 and starting to see a Dusting here. For the first time it is accumulating on my side road. I took trash out a bit ago and the slush on the driveway was starting to get a bit slick.

  71. We have an inch on the ground but it’s been snowing all day and with what melted earlier, I’d say we’ve probably gotten 2 to maybe 3 inches all day.

  72. The snow opportunities haven’t been many, but the few that have occurred have either met or exceeded expectations, in my opinion.

  74. My information is pointing towards the patriots are really close to an announcement In the very near future & are just working on the contract . If you follow football , you know Adam reports the truth .

    1. The only thing I’m following in football right now are the playoffs. 🙂

      I don’t care what the Pats do right now. They’ll do what they do and the rebuilding will continue for a few more years. 🙂

      1. Me too but as a pats fan I want to know who my coach is & who there coming with . Looking like Mike Vrabel & it’s highly rumored Josh is coming along for the ride . I’m rooting for Houston in this game & Buffalo tomorrow

          1. Yup! Roster and talent are everything. Even the greatest coach ever didn’t and couldn’t succeed here with what we currently have. It’s why I’m hopeful the front office goes bye bye as well

            1. Agree all around Ace & Sue . They have a lot of money available to spend & a decent # draft pick . I also agree with clearing out the office as I am sure if it’s Mike or someone else , that’s what there going to do , let’s hope . Glad Houston won & I am a Bills fan the rest of the season lol , Go Bills

      2. Agree. Let them rebuild and allow them to let true fans know when they have something to tell them. In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs.

  78. Final measurement for JP: 1.75 inches.
    Nothing more. That is all she wrote. 🙂

    Still looks very picturesque out there.

    We’re at 8.75 inches on the season.

  79. Final measurement for Boston (Logan) = 1.8” ❄️

    Snowfalls to date (updated):

    WOR = 11.9”
    BOS = 7.5”
    NYC = 4.2”

  80. Man, this game is really confirming my feelings on Justin Herbert since he came into the league. Not a winner.

  82. Nick Caserio leaving the Patriots back in 2020 that is a sneaky nugget of when things started to change. Thats when getting players to the Patriots started to stink…. I really think the front office is a major issue of why the Patriots have struggled. This adds another reason why I want Vrabel.
    Vrabel would have more say in drafting and FA than Elliott Wolf and others in those departments. They and the Krafts were the death of the Patriots. Caserio is showing he is probably one of the best in terms of the BB tree.

    1. Also in terms of the superbowl.
      Bills or Texans vs the Lions or Vikings. Those are the teams I am hoping get to the superbowl. I would really like Lions to make it all the way.

      1. I want the Lions to win it ALL! They haven’t won an NFL Championship since 1957, long before most of us here were born.

    2. I think we underestimate the part Brady played in keeping the team together.

      He succeeded with BBs poor drafting. He literally begged BB to draft when he said he was getting older and needed more support along with trading of weaker and others. Walker comes to mind but there are many more examples

      2. Bill stated there was a disconnect between him and the front office his last 4 years. When Casserio left we saw a change and it wasn’t for the better. We saw the Patriots suffer through a gutting in the behind the scenes and the krafts used Bill as at he scape goat and then again with Mayo. I never have believed it was one or the other, I feel like it was always the combo of the two. There is a reason why the raiders reached out to Bill and it was Tom which just continues to tell me that they have a better relationship than some people think. I think Vrabel would be the best fit as he will bring his own people in and basically get rid of the people that shouldn’t be in football decisions.

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