Wednesday January 15 2025 Forecast (7:12AM)

111 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Northwesterly flow continues to deliver cold air for a couple more days. Today’s weather will be dry and breezy with plenty of sunshine – and you’ll start to notice it staying lighter a little later – into the 5:00 p.m. hour now. Thursday, a disturbance approaches with an increase in clouds and this system may bring a period of light snow and perhaps a few heavier snow showers as it passes through the region in the evening. Behind it though, instead of a push of colder air, temperatures will moderate as winds shift to west and lighten up on Friday, in response to a larger high pressure area to our southwest. The high slides off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This sets up a weekend weather transition in which we see a mainly cloudy, milder Saturday, with late-day and nighttime rain, which may mix with or change to snow before ending to the west, followed by a push of colder air and a drier interlude for much of Sunday. However, another wave of low pressure will rapidly approach from the southwest, and with cold air in place, the chance of snow increases as early as Sunday evening. I’ll watch that for timing/track.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with snow or snow showers – under 1 inch of accumulation. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain evening, ending overnight, possibly mixed with snow west of I-495. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Limited sun. Potential snow by evening. Temperatures steady in 30s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Snow chance early January 20. Snow chance again at the end of the period. Between these comes a significant shot of cold air with dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Cold eases slightly but overall temperatures stay mostly below normal. Another snow or snow shower chance comes around mid period.

111 thoughts on “Wednesday January 15 2025 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I have noticed a difference in the afternoon and within a week, we also begin making progress in the morning, which will be helpful. I get going a lot easier in the light vs the dark.

  3. Thanks, TK!

    I believe we are into the second half of Meteorological Winter starting today! We are also picking up earlier sunrises a little faster now day-by-day.

    20 the low this morning in the Silver City!

    1. And were not far from the second half of the school year 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Day 83 in Marshfield.

      I don’t keep track, our attendance software does, so the teachers see the number everyday 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. 99 more teaching days left in my career (not that I am counting or anything!)

        I sound like a senior. Wait, I AM a senior! And I don’t mean the Class of 2025! 🙂

  4. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_024h-prob01&rh=2025011500&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_024h-prob04&rh=2025011500&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011500&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The first 2 links are the GEFS 00z ensembles. Of those, the 1st is the prob >1 inch of snow and the 2nd link is the prob > 4 inches of snow.

    The 3rd link is the 00z GFS op run and the closest pass of said system.

    I think we can deduce from the ensemble percentages that many individual ensemble members must be a lot further northwest with the wave of low pressure compared to the op run.

  6. Thank you TK.

    Watched 3 TV mets this AM in regard to Sun-Mon.
    Met 1: Boston in the bull’s eye.
    Met 2: Tracks to the SE and we might get light slow or just flurries at most.
    Met 3: Undecided.

  7. 21F currently.

    Sun rises are getting earlier a little each day. Gaining 15 minutes of daylight per week at this point.

  8. I would still like to see some more model consistency with the upcoming Sunday-Monday event. Just not getting it.

      1. ha ha ha ha By then doesn’t do us much good, does it.
        Models representing the past can be PERFECT!
        Models representing the future, well, NOT so much.

          1. neither one of those delivers much if any snow on the ground, assuming events unfold as depicted.

            Perhaps this could be a little bit of a surprise, but apparently not to TK. 🙂

  11. Will we have fire issues around here if we don’t get enough precipitation in about eight weeks?

  13. From our pal Bernie:

    Bernie Rayno
    @AccuRayno
    (2) Right snow looks like a 1-3″ from I-81 in VA northward into eastern New England (includes, DCA, PHL, NYC and BOS). A narrow 3-6″ from central and eastern LI to Cape Cod (as islands). Injection of arctic air in place means potential is there for much more if ENERGY is stronger

    1. Disappointing development. Hopefully the follow-up system delivers. Only consistent part of the winter so far is, “the next system will deliver…”

          1. Are you just waiting for me to post & comment sue ?? Agreeing with another blogger is that ok with you .

            1. Trust me, I am not waiting for anything except a little bit of snow. 🙂

              Of course you can agree with anyone you like, why so defensive?

              1. Everytime I post it’s your still looking for that bust ? I want snow as much as you believe me . Enjoy your day

  20. Dave, have you been watching the run to run differences in the GFS with how it is handling the two storms next week? The wild differences every 6 hours from one run to the next are laughable. I am basically ignoring it at this point. At least with the fake threat last week, it showed a phased solution/hit consistently for several runs in a row before slowly backing off.

  22. Meanwhile….ANOTHER 6″ of snow last night at Sugarbush VT. 13″ in the last 48 hours and four feet of new snow since New Years. They are at 135″ on the season and 100% open.

    It has been the month of the upslope….

    1. Jay Peak reporting 20″ of new natural snow in the past 48 hours and 3 feet of snow within the past 7 days. 195″ now on the season.

  23. Cold weather lead to this disaster, the anniversary of which is today…

    The Boston Molasses Disaster, occurred on January 15, 1919, in the North End neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts. A large molasses storage tank burst, and a wave of molasses rushed through the streets at an estimated 35 mph, killing 21 and injuring 150. The event has entered local folklore, and residents claim that on hot summer days, the area still smells of molasses.

    1. As a former Bostonian, the story has always been drilled into our heads. Thanks TK for reminding us.

    2. I’m not sure I have heard that story which surprises me …so let’s assume my old mind forgot??? But wow. Thank you for sharing

  24. Wait …… we haven’t had consistency in the models yet for next Sunday/Monday

    Today isn’t likely to be the correct solution.

  25. Given the ensemble spread, it’s not time to draw conclusions on the next threat, especially based on deterministic model runs.

    And no, it’s not always “the next system”. I’ve been more than clear about that.

    My discussions hold the information. I update daily.

  28. Thanks tk. Got a planet fitness membership again because I predict we’ll get a few snowfall events in the coming weeks that will make running outside annoying.

    2. Yep.
      The pattern that emerges in a few days will start to prove that notion correct. 🙂

  29. I’ve been going to planet fitness since June of 2007. Best thing I have ever done for myself. Im 69 years old no health issues except a fractured right ankle that i injured on black ice twelve screws and a titanium plate. I feel blessed with good health no blood pressure, cholesterol, heart, issues. Oh and yes normal achess and pains for my age but nothing overwhelming. It’s all in the genes we are all predisposed for all types of health issues.

  31. FYI: Forecast snowfall amounts for the Sunday night / Monday potential will be on Friday’s update.

    1. Actually, the 12z ECMWF operational run is not too far away from my initial expectations.

      I never said that was bound to be a major snowstorm, only a “snow event”, the magnitude of which remains to be seen. 🙂

          1. TK said a few days ago that we would reach average to above average snowfall for January, which I believe is around 14″

        2. Never said it was all coming at once.
          We still have half the month to go, and all it takes is a few events. A few events are certainly a potential before January 31 ends.

          What I have indicated for quite some time now is that the pattern change would take place, but the snow chances were weighted toward the end of the window of time that was discussed, and beyond that, for a couple or a few weeks (TBD) before a lull follows.

          I still carry the same outlook I did since I first mentioned it, although I’m starting to see a few signs that the “lull” may be short-lived.

      1. Certainly won’t be anything to write home about, but when you get a coating or a half inch on cold surfaces that are not treated, the slippery factor becomes the real deal.

        There still remains this disconnect with a lot of the general public that road conditions are directly related to total snowfall accumulation. While this is PARTIALLY true, what is much more true is that road conditions are directly related to current and recent weather conditions, including temperature of both air and road surface, rate of snowfall (if snowing), and treatment (or lack of).

    1. So we are basically at 20-30% chance of 1″ of snow per the EPS. GFS ensemble chances of 1″ are slightly higher but still less than 50%.

      Pathetic we have resorted to analyzing the chances of receiving 1″ of snow…

  37. TK – Will there be some areas for the tomorrow evening event that won’t even see a dusting?

    1. It is possible, yes, because the precipitation may be somewhat patchy in nature. But, I suspect most areas will see at least a dusting.

      1. PUKE ANYONE????
        How can we go from persistent off shore systems to this piece of crap?????? Good thing it is the GFS. 🙂

  39. As we discussed yesterday, pattern looks more active and snowier come February once we can get this dry, cold deep freeze pattern to subside.

    The snow anomaly map in Ben’s post below is super blend of several models and shows above to much above normal snow in New England. Looks very similar to the straight up EPS February Snow Anomaly map I posted yesterday.

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    20h

    The latest long-range snowfall guidance paints an active (snowy) picture for February in many states.

    A strong temperature gradient (colder north vs warmer south) may drive a train of storms.

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1879342478605836533

    1. Immediately someone will think of jumping on this and saying “but you said January, now it’s February, what’s next, March?”

      Anybody who would react that way hasn’t been paying attention to what I’ve been saying.

      The pattern change BEGINS this weekend.

      Pattern changes are most often not instantaneous.

      Yes, once it changes, it stays that way for a while. And the lull I thought would follow it may be short-lived, if it even lulls…

      1. Guilty as charged. In my defense, in mid Dec, I heard you say things like, “conditions will be more conducive to snow events here in early January.” You would say that’s not the same thing as saying, “the pattern is changing in mid-Jan.” To me, it’s synonymous which is where I’m coming from. Every winter I hear the same thing about windows of opportunity which keep shifting out when events don’t pan out.

      2. The older I get, the more I understand the concept of being slow to react to change. I promise you that the only thing I will say is yippeee.

      3. I have to admit that this winter has so far been making me remember writing a school research paper almost 50 years ago touting the future of nuclear fusion – just 20 years until it’s a viable source of energy! That “20 years from now” mantra has been with us ever since. (Although, Commonwealth Fusion just down the road from me in Devins is doing some very impressive stuff.)

        And where is my flying car? And you kids, get off my lawn! 🙂

  40. I find it interesting that the Saturday (rain) event has “no doubt”, but the Sunday evening (snow) event has only “potential”. 😉

    Of course most snow events generally show only”potential” in the long, medium or short range.

    1. Think we will get some snow late Sunday / early Monday Philip but it won’t be anything significant.

      2. Define “significant”, because a couple inches on a really cold surface that was wet just hours before can be a lot more significant than you realize.

        1. Significant snow fall is a large amount of snow that falls in a particular area over a certain amount of time .

  42. If u look at Ben knolls website you can see that the ecmwf is predicting above avg snowfall for February. My phone isnt letting post the link.

      1. sorry about that, I was in the ER earlier today and only had my phone. I didn’t see your post previously. For those wondering its nothing major, its something back in the states I would get done at an urgent care center or regular practice, but here in Australia they are more stingy on what can and can not be done at those locations.

  43. JR used the words “shovel and plow” at the end of his last newscast of the evening. A good sign. 🙂

  44. The only reason the “snow” part was not as certain, Philip, was because it was further out in the future.

    It’s going to snow here Sunday night – the only question to answer is snow amounts.

    I’ve never said anything about this being a “big storm”, not that you have indicated that (this is just a general statement). It’s a snow event potential I’ve been eyeing for many days for “around January 20”. The potential is still there, and rather solid for the event. Probably a light to moderate event. Working on those details. 🙂

    1. A widespread steady snow for a few hours will be fine with me, and as you’ve been saying that there will be more in the pipeline into February. 🙂

      1. I believe that’s what will take place – amounts TBD.

        I’ve seen a whole lot of “calling winter off” posts around social media … again. It happens every year before winter has hit it’s 1/3 mark. 🙂

        And yes we’ve had 2 very lean winters in a row leading up to this one, which, by the way, is not unusual. 🙂

        You’ve heard me mention the term “recency bias” on here. It’s a very very real thing.

        I just saw somebody post on a local TV’s page: “I remember when we used to have real winters. It’s been many years.” That’s completely incorrect. Stats will prove it.

        1. We had a “real winter” as recently as 2021-22 when Boston received 54.0 inches. Closing in on 3 years if my math is correct. ❄️ 🙂

          The 1950s had several lean winters.

  45. 0z Canadian also came in much stronger with the Sunday night/Monday Am system….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025011600&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    6-10” across the interior and it is so much stronger and farther NW that it would introduce some rain southeast of 84 and south of the Pike in eastern MA which would cut down on totals there.

    Kuchera snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011600&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps

  47. Sounds like Pembroke can’t manage their own water system.

    They need to get that figured out…

    1. I didn’t hear about that. Can I assume they don’t get their water supply from the Quabbin?

    2. The water is horrible in certain parts of town but not all . They have tried blaming the brown water at times from when they do hydrent flushing , but that’s not the case . I am happy that it made the news as I was pushing for some publicity

      1. Yeah it was the first I’d heard of it.

        “First, we have to get a feel for how often it’s happening.” … I think they already have a feel for that. The residents tell them every time.

        They can figure out the cause and implement a fix faster than they’ll tell anybody it can be done.

Comments are closed.