Wednesday January 22 2025 Forecast (7:16AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

The deep freeze continues today – probably the coldest daytime hours of the stretch, but again not too much wind will make it slightly more tolerable to be outside if you must be. A blanket of clouds comes in tonight in response to a mid level disturbance, and that will prevent the temperature from falling as low as it did last night. Clouds depart during Thursday as dry air returns and a low pressure area I’d once been watching as a threat passes well out to our south at night. High pressure to the southwest noses in with fair weather and a moderation in temperature Friday and Saturday, before a cold front swings in with a chance of a few snow showers on Sunday.

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds and maybe a snow flurry this morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 7-14. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Limited sun morning / abundant sun afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. 31-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Overall trend is dry with near to below normal temperatures but have to keep an eye on moisture / disturbances both south and north for any interaction (eyeing January 27 and the last couple days of the month).

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Near to below normal temperatures. Pattern may turn more unsettled.

88 thoughts on “Wednesday January 22 2025 Forecast (7:16AM)”

    1. As usual, I have no memory of that event. That’s 5 years before WHW. Those were the days, though. 🙂

  2. Good morning and thamk you TK

    6 this morning here.

    More wasted cold.

    We are now a bit more than a month out from the Solstice. There is noticably more daylight. Shortly we will be exiting the coldest part of Winter. Soon we’ll be saying Where did the Winter go? And perhaps where was all the snow? We need some action. Gfs has a good one down the road, but we know where those go.

  3. Thanks, TK!

    +3 this morning. 0 yesterday morning.

    You’re right, JPD. It is getting noticeably lighter during the morning commute.

  4. Thank you TK. At 6F right now.

    Walked the shore. definitely COLD but the absence of wind makes it a lot easier!

  10. What have me learned to this part of this particular winter ……

    The cold air is plentiful this year.

    I don’t feel like the atmosphere has come together for the big 1 this year, yet.

    Feb or March for the intense storm yet to come, is my opinion.

    1. right and I’m Santa Claus. We shall see.
      FRUSTRATING WINTER SO FAR!!!!

      Plenty of cold, NOT enough SNOW and too many suppressed
      systems.

      Sure, there is plenty of time. So Let’s get going!!!!

  12. Thanks TK.

    -3F this morning in Coventry; we “only” got down to 1F yesterday.

    Bakersville, CT in Litchfield County, the typical cold spot of CT, got down to -18F this morning. Impressive.

    Beyond that, coldest readings I am seeing are around -25F in northern NH and VT.

    1. Certainly very COLD, but nothing we haven’t seen before. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Where’s the SNOW???????????????????????????????????????????????

  14. Yesterday the snow records were shattered and now today the cold records are going down….

    Tyler Stanfield
    @TylerJStanfield

    Parts of south LA are waking up to their coldest morning ever recorded.

    Lafayette 4°F (all-time record)
    Baton Rogue 7°F (2nd lowest on record)
    Slidell 8°F (all-time record)
    Lake Charles 6°F (2nd lowest)
    New Iberia 2°F (all-time record)

    1899 record still stands at BTR and LCH.

  15. Don’t discredit the GFS too much. Lately, it’s been the one to sniff things out, then the EURO fills in the details

    2. I’ve heard a few local Mets say the same. I posted links here but darned if I can find them.

    1. I’m sure they are spending as much time as they can in the mud
      at the bottom of the river, pond or lake in which they reside. 🙂

  17. -4.2 this morning in North Reading, I absolutely love the cold!….agree with Tom the big one comes when the cold and warm clash later this Winter and we are on the right side of the boundary…there is a reason February is our snowiest month

      1. I think in some previous 30 day periods used, February was the snowiest, but with the latest period used, January is the winner. If I am wrong, I think there are a couple of people on this blog that will soundly correct me. 🙂

  19. SNOWFALL STANDINGS to date:

    ORH = 18.2”
    BOS = 12.5”
    NYC = 5.8”

    Don’t expect any movement anytime soon. ❄️ 🙁

    1. I think you might be right Philip as nothing in the immediate future unless you live on the Islands

    1. Imagine today’s the day your driving down 95 to winter in Florida until early April ?

      Usually, there’s some sort of progression, even in Jan and Feb that show you, your headed to warmer times.

      1. Tampa NWS has a predicted high of 53F for Tampa today.

        I don’t think so.

        Its 41F right now. They probably don’t have a lot of experience knowing temps will underachieve with the air coming off all that refrigerant just to their north.

  25. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th_nb&rh=2025012212&fh=354&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025012212&fh=354&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Way, way out there, but this kind of setup could create a lot of impactful weather across the US

    Decent to strong SE ridge, while below normal heights and plenty of arctic cold across Canada.

    Could translate to a huge area of snow, sleet, frz rain, rain and possibly severe weather. La Nina’s tend to feature SE ridges at some point during a winter.

            1. Thanks JPD. If I am reading it correctly, it’s not in the proper phase for snow at this time. Am I correct on that?

                1. The dates are on the line, so you can tell where
                  we are for each date. The phases we are looking for are 8,1 and 2.

  29. Yes JPD, MJO has only been marginal help. And right now it’s going to scoot through weak phases 3 through 6, then enter 7, 8, 1 and strengthen. First time in several winters we’re going to see that! (Except briefly in late January 2022).

  30. You know you’re in a cold pattern when your “warm ups” take you back to normal. 🙂

    I had a feeling the Atlantic Nina and temporarily negative spike in the AMO might lead to an episode reminiscent of the 1980s winters. Bingo.

  31. TK, does an MJO phase of 1 or 2 have any relationship/correlation to the presence of the southeast US ridge ?

    I only ask because the end of the euro op run also suggests SE ridge.

    Set up correctly, that can be a good snow maker for the northeast.

    1. I haven’t studied it so intently to really correlate that, but phase 1 is generally a very good one for snow in the Northeast. Phase 2 is marginal until late winter when it becomes more favorable.

      WxW has talked about the SE ridge actually helping our snow chances up here, and I totally agree with him.

      A lot of people make (often incorrectly) the assumption that a ride in the SE automatically kills snow chances here. But not always. We’re not losing the Canadian cold. In fact, we’re not even really losing our tendency to be cold here either.

      That combination can be both snowy and “messy”, meaning the incidences of sleet/ice also go up in parts of the Northeast. Neither one is a guarantee to dominate especially looking at it this far in advance, but if I had to guess, I’ll lean white over icy.

  33. That cloud blanket is approaching now, and will increase in the next few hours, and keep tonight’s temps from falling to the levels they fell to last night, as talked about in my discussion this morning.

  34. As I look at more info this afternoon, that “warm up back to near normal” is looking less and less solid to me. We’ll get a couple days in the 30s I’m sure, but I’m already thinking of changing my 30s to 20s for Saturday’s forecast.

    The colder side of things just keeps winning out.

    Darn it that I almost pulled out the stops back in November when I saw 2 models that forecast monthly weather going colder for January through March.

        1. Actually, it did pan out pretty well.

          We gave a window to watch of January 5-20. Two systems occurred during that time, the last of which was widespread. So yes, it did.

  35. Here is the Euro MJO forecast:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

    We are coming out of a fairly strong Phase 1/2 and now are in unfavorable Phase 3. It is forecast to weaken and go through unfavorable phases 4 thru 6 next week into the first few days of February when it looks like it wants to start circling back around towards Phase 7, albeit still weak.

    TK, how do you know this circles back around into Phases 8/1/2 and strengthens as we head into mid February? Just projecting based on its normal cycle or is there a longer range model that predicts this index further out?

    1. Combination of normal cycle and overall pattern.

      I’ve been watching the MJO intently for several years now. You recall how often I said it was the enemy of the snow lover the last few winters. 🙂

      That’s gradually changing now.

      1. I hope you are correct….and while we are at it, let’s slow it WAY down on its progression thru 8/1/2 as well 🙂

      1. There is for sure a bit of a hint 1/30-2/1 with maybe some OES opportunities, but I am also seeing signals to delay to around 2/5-2/6. I know, I was the guy who said winter stormy patter 1/20 – 2/5. Now I am thinking a possible delay again…Boy who cried wolf….

        There will also be a pattern change to troughing out west and ridging in the east mid (or late February)

          1. Welcome to medium and long range prediction! This is not unusual!

            But let’s also be realistic, we just had a widespread significant snow event. And the pattern itself has been “active”, it’s been the tracks that have taken these systems elsewhere.

            Again, welcome to predicting the future. Give it a try using science sometime and it’ll be a very different perspective, I assure you. 😉

  42. I know what the temperature is but like I said yesterday the cold before Christmas that had the wind everyday, it felt way , way colder .

    1. I actually had mentioned specifically that despite the cold, we’d be lacking the strong wind, making it more tolerable. No surprises there. But this air mass is still colder. We measure by actual air temperature, not wind chill. 🙂

  44. According to JR this evening, NO SNOWSTORMS IN SIGHT!!! ❄️ 🙁

    Boston snowfall to date = 12.5”

    1. He was talking about the next several days regarding significant storm threats. There are many opportunities for flakes, and there are chances for larger events on the horizon. Go check out today’s discussion!

Comments are closed.