Friday January 31 2025 Forecat (7:40AM)

115 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

A wave of low pressure passing to our south today and tonight will send a ribbon of precipitation into our region. I do think the surface temperatures will be sufficiently above freezing enough and it will have warmed enough aloft to avoid any snow / ice at the start, with a late enough onset of precipitation, so that arrives as rain for pretty much the entire region this afternoon into the evening, but then colder air will filter back down from the north, and we’ll see precipitation change to snow (where it’s heavy enough) and freezing drizzle (where it’s lighter) from north to south during the hours that its also getting set to taper off / move out of the region. But this will occur with enough time left for a minor snowfall accumulation and some spotty areas of icing (where the freezing drizzle falls or a melt/freeze process takes place). While the precipitation exits by about dawn Saturday, the icy conditions it leaves behind will linger, so be aware of that if venturing out to start the weekend. Treatment / sun / sublimation will do their things to mitigate this during the day Saturday and again Sunday, but watch for lingering icy spots where this does not take place! As for the weather, fair, cold weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds in. A very cold night Saturday night will result from high pressure overhead. The high then slides off to the east and a clipper low approaches later Sunday, and much like the Tuesday night / Wednesday system we’ll see a burst of snow with its warm front, get into its warm sector on Monday, then see some rain/mix showers later Monday with its cold front crossing the area. This will then return fair and colder weather to the region Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives midday-afternoon southwest to northeast. Fog develops and can become dense. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain in the evening, changing to snow and freezing drizzle from north to south as it gradually tapers off from west to east overnight, with some glazing, and snow accumulation of scattered coatings to 1/2 inch South of I-90, 1/2 to 2 inches I-90 northward, with the 1-2 inch amounts most likely in northern MA and southern NH where it snows longer. Watch for black ice on snowless surfaces. Lows 20-27. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy eastern areas at dawn, otherwise sun/cloud mix. Highs 26-33. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10 inland, 10-17 coast. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, may end as a snow/rain mix. Lows 20-27 early, then rising into the 30s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower, maybe snow/rain mix well north and west by late-day. Highs 41-48. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day from northwest to southeast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A stray snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Next low pressure system looks like a snow to rain event for the region in the February 5-6 time window, with details TBD. Another storm system potential, favoring a snow/mix solution for the February 8-9 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Busy pattern brings one more storm threat by mid period. Variable temperatures, no extremes indicated.

115 thoughts on “Friday January 31 2025 Forecat (7:40AM)”

  2. Thank you TK. Was thinking of climbing in So NH tomorrow, maybe taking on something smaller … 3,000 ft or under. I don’t mind climbs in the snow but do mind icy conditions. Might put this one off for a week.

  4. Thanks TK. Timing clearly slowed with today’s rain. I thought it was forecast during the day and into evening and now it’s afternoon overnight. Dry air or track ?

    1. It is moving along.

      Sunrise today: 6:59 AM
      Sunset today: 4:57 PM

      Tomorrow will be close to 2.5 minutes more of daylight.

        1. I can’t help but agree with you. But I sadly don’t think we will ever know. I am hoping I’m
          Wrong

            1. You are certainly free to voice your opinions of the current or past administration’s ! However your comment yesterday and today are leaning in the direction of being political. I do feel that yesterday’s DEI comments were not necessary in light of such a tragedy. The facts will continue to come out. WHW has done a good job of remaining neutral. Let’s keep it that way.

      2. Thanks JPD.

        Yes, the military helicopter was most definitely at fault based on that video. The U.S. Army should absolutely be held accountable and compensate the families of the jet passengers and crew.

        Also, the Army should re-evaluate its aviation training methods for sure.

        2. I did hear that the helicopter was flying at a higher altitude than is acceptable for a military vehicle in that particular situation. I also heard that the plane was asked to change runways, and that there were not enough personnel in the control tower.

          What may happen is that blame gets spread around.

            2. Yes, and that plan was coming from Hartford. Scary. You wont ever catch me on a flight to DCA. I don’t like flying to begin with and am already dreading flying out west to Calgary for our western ski trip this year. Its an irrational fear I know….flying is still the safest form of travel and statistically the odds of dying in a plane crash are miniscule but events like this and the recent South Korean crash rattle me.

              1. I have the same irrational fear. And having a sister in law who flew 40+ years know it is irrational but still.

                I digress. But Jenny, bless her, was working pam am 103 to London…..she was miraculously bumped for the return flight that went down over Lockerbie. She was grounded and then had a military escort out of Tehran when the hostages were taken. She volunteered along with every pan am crew member to fly in when hostages were released but when military planes went in, she was on one of two flights that brought others trying escape back to the US. There is much more and this isn’t related at all to discussion but I’m so proud to has known her.

                2. She sure was. I wrote notes that I have somewhere as she talked about sitting in the International and watching Tehran burn. And having to walk through a double line of armed Iranian guards, eyes down to take a flight out.

                  She said Argo was good. Not completely fact based but worth watching. Might be a good idea for me to watch

          2. I saw this too. My heart goes out to the ATC. I had a friend wayyyyyyyy back who was an ATC at Bradley. It’s an incredibly stressful job. I did read that there was only one ATC for both commercial and helicopters rather than the normal two.

            “ The report, reviewed by The New York Times, said that one controller was communicating with both helicopters and planes. Those jobs are typically assigned to two people, not one.” ~ NYT

            https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-wants-hire-2000-air-traffic-controllers-2025-2024-03-11/

            I’ m absolutely not placing blame on ATC. We have shortages in many professions now and too many are stressed and overworked

            1. Regardless, the one ATC gave the helicopter pilots ample warning and it is on the recording. Hard to blame this on anything but the helicopter pilots who:

              -deviated from their scheduled flight path
              -were flying at too high an altitude
              -didnt somehow see the large aircraft lit up out of their front left window
              -made no attempt to deviate from their path last minute when they must have seen the plane in front of them.

  13. Rain is in!

    I was in the mood for a nice winter rain so this one is pleasing to me. 🙂

    Later though, things change as this gets set to exit.

    2. I, for one am NEVER in the mood for a winter rain event. 🙁 I hope to be in a better mood come late Sunday, and that won’t be saying much (C-1”). ❄️ 🙂

  16. Not just rain, but cold rain is the worst in the Winter…..if it’s going to rain might as well be 70 from my perspective. I’m just glad it might end as snow to cover up the brown landscape albeit temporarily

  17. ….and the 12z Euro has nothing good to offer, though TK might like it. It’s a warmer run than 0z with more nice, pleasing winter rains and mix events (I would insert vomit emoji but dont know how).

  18. According to the Washington Post:

    In the DC area, “An average of more than 100 helicopters a day zip around and underneath arriving and departing airline flights.”

    “On Wednesday evening, the position of helicopter controller — a role typically staffed until 9:30 p.m. — had been combined ahead of the crash with that of local controller, according to the report. Doubling up those roles can create challenges for an air traffic controller, especially if the airspace is busy. The roles use different radio frequencies, and airplane pilots and helicopter pilots cannot necessarily hear each other even if they’re both in touch with the tower.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/01/30/dc-plane-crash-helicopter-recovery-no-survivors-potomac-river/

  19. Can see effect of recent cold pattern. I don’t think a drop of water has soaked into the frozen ground. It hasn’t rained a ton today, yet there’s just water atop most of the ground.

  20. The fog across frozen lakes and ponds is very photogenic today when combined with the nearby landscape. 🙂

        1. Good news about them!!

          Your snow accumulation will be less than 1 inch. But this is one of those cases where you’d actually want some snowcover, because it’ll be a snow over wet ground, which is rough, and when that freezes over, it provides a measure of traction. The less snow accumulation you have, the greater the threat of smooth black ice you’ll have. So use a lot of caution.

  21. Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    3:22 PM EST Fri, Jan 31, 2025

    …RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90…

    Periods of rain will gradually transition to snow from north to south this evening. This transition should roughly occur between 6 and 9 pm north of Route 2…reaching the I-90 corridor in the 9 pm to midnight time frame. This snow should exit the northeast MA coast by the early to mid morning hours on Saturday..

    Overall…we expect 1-2″ of snow near and especially north of I-90. Localized 3-4″ amounts are possible north of route 2. Motorists traveling later this evening and especially into the overnight hours should be prepared for roads becoming snow covered and slippery.

  22. Dense fog has developed here (as TK forecasted correctly above). I don’t believe the tv Mets even mentioned the possibility. 😉

    Spot on as always TK! 🙂

    1. I actually forgot to add it to my text at first, and had to go back and edit, which I couldn’t do until about 90 minutes after I posted the forecast.

      Right after I posted, I left for work. Right after I arrive at work, I head downstairs for 1 hour to serve breakfast to memory care residents. After I did that, I looked and said “Hey, my forecast is fogless!” and fixed it. 🙂

  25. Models all of the general idea of a changeover to snow, but they differ on timing and how far South the changeover goes before
    precipitation ends.

    Could be interesting.

    I just drove my my house out to Dedham and temp went from 40 up to 43 and coming home it went from 43 back down to 40.

    Interesting. NO SNOW out there, still holding onto some snow cover here in JP, mostly in the shadey areas.

  30. Thanks TK.

    Overrunning galore indeed. Great news for the Northeast/mid-Atlantic drought. Lots of tricky ptype forecasts ahead. But with the growing Pacific influence (-PNA) and increasing prevalence of the Southeast ridge, ski country remains my bet for the most wintry precip next 2-3 weeks. But I don’t think SNE will get skunked either.

    This pattern will also help out several areas of either long standing or budding drought here in the West. Much of the CONUS has been very dry for several months now. That is coming to an end.

    1. This is absolutely great news for the drought!

      It kind of blows my initial February forecast out of the water, but hey, forecasting the weather 3 months in advance? Yep…

        1. I had it active start and finish, quiet middle. That still technically can happen.

          1. Perhaps an active start and middle, then a quiet finish? Would that still work for you? 🙂

  31. Today’s CPC 8-14 day outlook (through Valentine’s Day) is for near normal temps and above normal precipitation.

    I would prefer at least slightly below normal temps just to be sure. I don’t want ice events either, especially for the interior.

    1. You don’t need below normal temps to snow. Near to slightly above normal temps will be more favorable for wintry weather events during the back half of winter.

      In fact, in our current set of indices, below normal temps often are dry patterns. We’ve already seen that.

  32. Rain/snow line is a little ahead of short term forecasts. Already at the MA/NH border.

  33. Not sure how much this does for the drought. The rainwater is going into rivers and lakes, but none of it is actually getting into the frozen ground. Huge puddles out there with nowhere for the water to go

    1. More than just this event, which does very little. It’s the longer term active pattern that will be favorable, especially since our snow chances increase as we move forward. Snow is generally more efficient at easing cold season droughts than rain is, because the vast majority of the time the melt of a snow pack is gradual, versus rain events which are much quicker in their delivery of water. Slower is better when you have at least partially frozen ground.

      This is one of my main areas of expertise as an agricultural meteorologist for 35 years now, so it’s something I’ve always payed very close attention to. 🙂

      1. The 2015 snow (110.6”) if anything led us into a major drought. Made things worse if I recall correctly? 😉

        All the snow on the ground just evaporated into the stratosphere.

        2. The 2015 snow didn’t lead us into the drought on its own. We were already at great deficit, long term.

          The problems with 2015:
          1) The snow pack was low water content to start with.
          2) The first point made the second one easier – and yes you remembered the term – sublimation. A cold, dry March with a high sun angle and the snow disappeared more back into the air than into the ground.

      1. A plane crashed 30 seconds after taking off from Philadelphia airport into houses below causing fire ball . Sounds like two on board & possibly medical plane , breaking news

  37. Sugar coating here.

    6z GFS is full on board snow train. Doubtful but at least something to track.

  38. Very icy from the looks of it.

    I have to agree about the comments earlier. Nothing nice about 39 degrees and rain in winter. It was raw, and miserable yesterday afternoon and evening. I also like all of types of weather but yesterday was just not nice.

    2. I loved it! Even took a short walk. 🙂
      I’m not sure what it is about rain/cold, but it is very invigorating to me. And then last night, I took another walk with large feathery flakes of snow falling. Best of both worlds!

  39. Looks like about an inch of snow in North Reading…very light snow falling at the moment…snow pack hung in there good up here….widespread snowcover still of a few inches or so

  40. I hate a cold rain anytime but especially during the winter. If I can’t have snow give me sunshine and mild temperatures over a cold rain.

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