Friday February 28 2025 Forecast (7:21AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

We close out February today with a day that features sun, passing clouds, chilly air, and a gusty breeze, but one hazard on the ground this morning is patches of black ice on untreated surfaces that did not dry from yesterday, in areas that temperatures have temperatures in the mid 30s or lower (surface temperatures can be 32 or lower). Watch out for that until mid or late morning when the combination of dry air, sun, and wind should largely eliminate it. As we start March, we’ll do so in a pattern with frequent changes. Saturday will be an unsettled day as low pressure moves rapidly west to east, passing just to our north. Its warm front may provide a burst of snow with minor accumulation in southern NH and parts of northern MA in the early morning hours, with some lighter mix/rain to the south, before we get into a mild interlude with a sun/cloud mix, and possibly a rain shower to accompany the low’s passing cold front later in the day. Sunday and Monday will feature dry weather, cold air, and a gusty wind as we get a delivery of polar air from Canada. High pressure brings a more tranquil Tuesday but clouds will start to increase ahead of our next low pressure visitor…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Pre-dawn snow/mix north with up to 1 inch of snow in southern NH, lighter mix/rain south. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with precipitation tapering off quickly. Variably cloudy afternoon with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts midday, then NW late-day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Low pressure (most likely track through Great Lakes) brings unsettled weather to start the period, followed by a shot of colder air, then a winter weather chance around March 8-9.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Two additional storm systems can impact the region with precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

82 thoughts on “Friday February 28 2025 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    36 here this morning.
    Snow is virtually gone, save for some piles and and a bit of patchy cover here and there. Tons of bare ground.

    The Euro is the only model depicting any real snow chance.
    Consistebtly has 3/8-3/9 as a threat date.

  4. Dr Andy Hazelton.

    I’m thinking some here, who follow hurricane season closely, have read his posts.

    Lost his job yesterday.

    I don’t believe he was a probationary employee.

    Some of the improved hurricane forecasts we’ve seen come from the work of people like Andy and others.

    I’m sure he’ll have multiple job offers from private companies in no time, but will he have access to all the materials and technology thru NOAA/NWS? My guess is not quite.

    1. What is going on is SHAMEFUL!!!!!!!!
      I don’t know who the hell they think they are, but I am hoping
      they will get their come uppings sooner rather than later.

      And SHAME on all the idiots out there who voted for that moron.

      1. I’m pretty passionate right now on how I feel about everything.

        I do think the government has areas that can be cut.

        I just think it needs more time and transparency.

        Take a month to investigate all divisions.

        How many employees do they have, what do they contribute?

        Then, evaluate what can be trimmed, what can be cut and things still run effectively with a little less. And yes, nothing can be trimmed is not an option.

        And then, bring the findings first to the affected workers and then the American people.

        Decreasing government spending some is ok and I think a lot of people would support.

        Its just been butchered in its execution and lacked in any humanity for the employees being affected,

        2. Decreasing departments that either oversee the co presidents businesses or have/can regulate them is diabolical. Now it’s Verizon and Starlink can assume the roll of “fixing” the FAA…..and be awarded a huge contract for doing so.

  8. Thanks, TK

    A nippy 30 degrees in West Taunton at oh-six-thirty.

    How are you feeling?

    Last day of Met Winter!

  9. Thank you, TK. I hope you are feeling better today and are hearing positive news for your brother.

    3. Yup, it has been very very consistent. Intensity and track varied slightly run-to-run, but is has had this feature.

      Now we’ll see what the 12z run shows.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    I’ve worked in the private sector, in academia, with (but not for) government entities, and on my own (self-employed). During this time, I’ve noticed across ALL settings administrative “bloat.” It is definitely not confined to government. In fact, because of the public nature of the government – almost everything is revealed to us – whether and where there may be bloat becomes more obvious.

    My biggest concern, however, has less to do with bloat, as I don’t necessarily see it as a bad thing (it’s often a reflection of a highly complex society in which regulations exist, often to ensure a functioning civil entity). My issue is viewing government functions from a profit or revenue perspective. Most jobs in government have nothing to do with profit or revenue. Thank goodness they don’t. Being a public servant – whether it’s a firefighter, a teacher, a climate scientist, a prison warden, a regulator, an intelligence officer, a public health official, a train conductor, a parks ranger, a mailman, a researcher – is just that: Serving the public. And this service isn’t (and shouldn’t be) subject to a profit- or revenue-maximizing maxim. The vast majority of folks that I’ve known who work in the state or federal government could have been employed in the private sector for considerably more money. Instead, they opted to dedicate themselves to the public good. I find this admirable.

    1. But the flip side is, they are always operating in the red with little or no fiscal responsibility.

      1. But what they are doing is irresponsible. They are just decimating agencies with no regard to what Is “bloat” ,as Joshua used., and what is not. If they want to rid waste, then do it in a thorough and thoughtful way that leaves the agencies intact. That is NOT what is going on here at all.

        1. Absolutely. They have already had to rehire key people or try to in more than one agency. But the intent was never ever for the purpose of cutting waste.

          1. The intent is the combination of revenge and destroy the government.

            These 2 maniacs NEED to be STOPPED. I am waiting.

            This is what I received in an email today:

            This week members of Congress advanced a budget resolution to cut $900 billion in Medicaid. The magnitude of these cuts put older adults and people with disabilities at risk of losing coverage and critical home and community-based services covered by Medicaid. As referenced in my January update we must continue to look at the Agency’s operations, which may inevitably result in cost-saving measures. These types of reviews are occurring throughout the entire ASAP network.  Please know that the CBES leadership team continues to work with our many partners, government officials, Mass Aging Access, and others to advocate for the funding necessary to ensure that we will be able to provide services and that supports each individual’s need to age in place with dignity and respect.

            What they are doing and the clueless members of Congress as well, have very far reaching consequences that will result in the Deaths of many thousands of persons, if not much more.

          2. Trump wants to turn this country into NAZI Germany and if you don’t believe it, I have some swamp land in Florida to sell you.

              1. He had some competent people RESTRAINING him. If he has these people now, what is happening
                would NOT be. He has nothing but sycophants in there doing his will.

                1. I will bet you $10,000 dollare that at the end of trumps term will not have become Nazi Germany. And i do have the $10k cashto bet

                2. In addition to the fact the savings from the cuts have been proven to be a lie, much of what is being done is against the constitutional law T swore to uphold. This is without question a constitutional crisis.

                  Now out of respect for TK, I’ll leave you to it.

  14. If the budget passes as they wish it to be, I will be OUT of a job.
    So, yes, I am concerned. Am I over reacting? I THINK NOT.

    The EURO better come out soon to get my mind on something else.

  17. Not that they ever were, but now, anything out after 72 hrs might as well be discarded.

    If you can’t see what’s going on up by the Aleutian Islands, with how much that has an effect on the 500 mb flow downstream of it, then the projected flow over the US after 72 hrs is no more than a guess.

    Think of how many northern stream disturbances rotate through and out of the semi-permanent Aleutians Island 500 mb area of low pressure. And now, the models won’t have that data sample.

      1. TK, WxWatcher, SAK, JMA can answer in much more detail, but I’m assuming at critical levels of the atmosphere, at 800mb, 700mb, 500 mb and other critical levels, the balloon carries/releases ??? an instrument that measures temp/humidity/wind an other important properties of the atmosphere that affect the weather and then, that data is input into the models calculus and physics equations that then project a simulation of the atmosphere, ie, its op run.

        2. I would offer that there are more crucial areas of the atmosphere that have to be sampled for data.

          That is why, during hurricane season, for example, occasional high flight level recon flights are sent over the Bermuda High because it is semi permanent in summer and has such a large effect on where the hurricane is going to go. You have to know how the Bermuda High is going to behave.

          In the cold season, which has a ways to go, you HAVE TO KNOW how the semi permanent Aleutians Island low is behaving, specifically how disturbances flowing through the low are behaving. With Kotzebue stopping that balloon, we are blind. With the Kotzebue balloon, we probably had 6 days of decent northern stream simulation. Now, its down to 3, and thats for us in New England. The Pacific West is going to be blind up until the storm hits them. Now of course, theyll have satellite and radar and other things, but the Pacific Northwest wont really know intensity as well as it would have prior to yesterday,

  18. I’ll just give an example of the long reach of short shortsightedness. My son is a mechanical engineer for a fairly small company that develops and builds proton therapy devices for cancer treatment. Treating a tumor with protons rather than the traditional use of photons has advantages is many circumstances. The company has devoted the past few years to designing and building a new generation of their product. The first one has been delivered and is currently being installed in CA.

    The FDA approval for something like this normally takes months. The news that many of the FDA employees responsible for medical device approval lost their jobs sent the company into a tizzy. Now the news that they are trying to rehire them has the company dizzy.

    And more important there are the lives that could have been saved.

    1. I have tears as I read. I’m certainly hoping no one here misses the horrific potential this presents.

      I would be surprised if any of us has not been affected by Cancer in one way or another

      Please thank your son and let him know people are working to stop this.

  19. I have said my piece. I am done….

    But I am not even interested in the weather right now.
    More important things going on…..

      1. The ECMWF model will trend to the others.

        The southerly track after a cutter, often leaves this model forgetting to generate enough precip on its northern flank.

        I have been eyeing March 8 for a long time, with reason.

  21. The best way to answer the balloon question right now is this…

    Any real time data that can be recorded and used as input into the model programs is beneficial, assuming it’s not bad data (which is fairly rare as these things are done with great care).

    The loss of a balloon from one site, while not end-of-the-world, is certainly more hurtful than neutral, and NOT helpful one single bit. And who’s to say they stop there? My guess is they won’t, and here’s some further info…

    This comes from a colleague (anonymous)…

    “Craig McLean, a former NOAA chief scientist who said he got information from a person with first-hand knowledge, told The Associated Press that as many as 1,300 people will be fired in two rounds, 500 Thursday and 800 on Friday. That’s about 10% of NOAA’s workforce.”

    1. Turns out I think it was 900 on the first day…

      I think one of the saddest things I have seen on social media in the limited amount of times I’ve looked at comments are how many people 1) find a justification in doing this without actually knowing the details and 2) saying things like “easiest job in the world, wrong 99% of the time and still paid big bucks” or “who needs them? They’re never right anyway.” Grand displays of bullying and ignorance, and that’s not even debatable. It’s fact – bullying and ignorance.

        1. Social media doesn’t stink. A significant percentage of people using it do.

          The platform has so much potential when the intended use is good.

      2. Thank you for the balloon information. Again absolutely fact.

        The Supreme Court is rigged to support the man in the white noise. I hope the lower courts continue to follow the rule of law.

        One thing I’m not sure about is if the courts don’t stop this, Nws may not rehire. The co president intends to move to a privatized weather system.

      1. Not likely, but it would not surprise me if it’s modified to become something different than it is now, and become less of a service than it is now and more of a “pamphlet”.

        We can hope not. I have a strong feeling a lot of these things are going to be somewhat reversed when it all backfires, badly.

        I hate to say this, but people WILL die because of decisions made without proper knowledge. It was preventable. They have no interest in preventing it, for the time being………….

        Now, obviously everybody knows I don’t want this to be a political debate platform, and it won’t be, but when drastic decisions have a major impact on the very thing this blog stands for, I’ll make a comment as to whether or not I agree with what’s being done, and I do not agree with what’s being done. If you’re going to make changes to something, you should have significant knowledge as to what it is, and what it does, before you eliminate it.

        That will be all I have to say on the matter, for now…

          1. On a separate note, I’ve always been amused by the word “pamphlet”. It’s just funny. 🙂

            1. The word “pamphlet” is funny to me because a piglet is a small pig and a booklet is a small book, so surely a pamphlet is a small pamph.

              I used to work with a lot of very smart people that didn’t have English as their first language. Some of their questions, struggles, and observations on the language were eye-opening to me.

  23. Someone mentioned government agencies being “in the red” and not “black.” Well yes, many government agencies are not supposed to be in the black or operating surpluses. For one thing, often their entire purpose conflicts with profit-maximization as a goal. Whether it’s the Environmental Protection Agency, USAID, CDC. FDA, Department of the Interior, you name it … being in the black is not and should not be an objective.

    And even a cursory glance at Keynesian macroeconomics shows that government deficits aren’t necessarily bad (they’re sometimes vital in times of need, such as when is money is spent during a recession, depression, or pandemic). Likewise, surpluses aren’t necessarily good (however comforting they sound). Government spending, whether in basic science research, infrastructure, education, medicine, healthcare, retirement, etc … can be indispensable.

    Does waste exist in government? Yes. Fraud? Yes. Do these things exist in the private sector, too? Yes. Either sector is no better or worse than the other.

    To the degree possible, BOTH sectors need to be cleansed of waste, fraud and conflicts of interest. For that to happen, thoughtful, methodical work must be done by state and federal governments in concert with the private sector.

    2. Thank you , Joshua. I started looking for an explanation earlier and was side tracked. I never would have found a source with even half of the information here. Excellent post

  24. Not a friendly room at the moment with zero opportunity for rational thought or opposing views so taking a step back before I get in trouble. Weather is boring as hell for the foreseeable future.

  25. I’m glad to report that the snow depth is decreasing on my deck. Maybe 3 inches of frozen stuff remains. I may be able to get to the closest chair to the slider tomorrow.

    Front yard is bare. Back looks like a combination of ice and maybe frozen slush. Most houses on my side of the street are bare except piles. Houses facing NNW are still solid cover

  28. I was just too far NW to see that. Just had the bright southeastern horizon.

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