Sunday May 11 2025 Forecast (7:48AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

The large scale pattern has now shifted from one block to another as part of the transition to the “hybrid” pattern I have referenced several times recently. Previously, the Omega pattern existed – cut off low western US, cut off low eastern US, ridge of high pressure between the two. Now, it’s a Rex Block – high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, located over the central and eastern US. This pattern persists the next few days before itself starting a shift in response to more progression to it west and north. Eventually the features move. The eastern nose of the high pressure area will play a part in giving us fair weather from today through Tuesday, after which it will give way to a northeastward-drifting low pressure area that will increase our clouds and wet weather chances as we head through midweek. I don’t think it will be in a hurry to get all that wet here, though, as the low from the south will be broad and disorganized with no super organized areas of rainfall, instead a more broken rainfall pattern.

TODAY: Lots of sun / few clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 inland, coolest in valleys, 45-52 coast, mildest Boston. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 63-70 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: High clouds increase.. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun / clouds dominant. Highs 60-67 coast, 67-74 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Pattern shift is slow, still in the hybrid block – low pressure not completely connected to the jet stream which becomes more progressive overall. The low pressure area that dominates the eastern US looks weaker than the one associated with the recent omega pattern. This pattern for us would deliver a southerly air flow shifting more westerly with time, but occasional shower chances with fair weather being dominant the majority of the time. Temperatures, while variable, would average near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Heading into late month, the strongest indications are for a progressive pattern – general west to east flow – but with a mean trough in eastern Canada and the northeastern US, making us more susceptible to a shot or two of cool Canadian air with temperatures near to below normal. Overall pattern looks drier.

51 thoughts on “Sunday May 11 2025 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  1. In the words of Al Kaprelian: “Happy Mothers Day to all you MUTHAS out there!” (yup, he said it just like that)

    3. I can’t read that without hearing the high pitch of his voice in my head!
      🙂

  4. Up to 66 here already after a morning low of 51. Certainly will pass 70, but by how much?

    I think 75 may be in play.

    1. I agree it has warmed up quick this morning.

      It is 19F atop mt Washington and the wind is starting to freshen mixing up the column.

      I wonder if the temp may slow its quick rise or even steady off for a bit.

      I would love 75F !!! But, 70F may be more likely. We’ll see 🙂

      1. Yes, you may be correct.
        made it to 67 and then it dropped back to 65. Sun is fighting the cooling. Fun battle.

  13. So a couple notes regarding the pattern, and also the way some people perceive the weather – incorrectly – and then make drama out of it…

    Misconception: March & April were the worst ever in this area. Yup, if you hate when it’s slightly drier and a few degrees warmer than average – it sucked. 😉 Otherwise, it was actually quite nice.

    Misconception: The first 10 days of May rained continuously.
    Reality: The first 10 days were quite wet compared to the average, but we surely didn’t shatter any records for rain amounts or stretches of continuous rain. In fact, we didn’t even phase those.

    Misconception: As soon as it’s March 1 (if you go by meteorological spring) or the Vernal Equinox (if you go by astronomical spring), the weather automatically becomes sunny and warm every day.

    Reality: This never happens. It never has, and it never will, at least while we populate the planet. As mentioned above, we had a mild/dry overall pattern for March & April. The first third of May has been wet, with measurable rain at Boston 8 out of 10 days, but it’s been mild, with the first 10 days tipping the temp departure scale to the +3 degrees side (Boston, and of course this varies depending on location). This is also about the time of spring (mid to late May) that you start to get more consistently “nice” weather. But also that depends on the pattern. It’s not the exact same thing every year. We don’t live in San Diego. We don’t live in the desert. We live in the northeastern US, just north of 40 deg N latitude, adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean, and not far from Canada which holds onto snowcover well into springtime. This is HOW IT IS here. Not sure why so many people can’t grasp that very, very simple concept. 😉

    Misconception: Blocking pattern = bad weather.
    Reality: This is the truth, if you’re in the section of the block that produces unsettled weather. If you’re not, then you can have days of very nice weather. Like today, tomorrow, Tuesday will be here. This, folks, is the nice side of a Rex Block.

    If you see people around social media being silly about all the things I mentioned, you are now armed with the correct knowledge to set them on the right track!

    Weather 101 is now dismissed! Enjoy your Sunday!

    1. Well said TK. Any one who has lived around here for any length of time should be well aware of what you stated! 🙂 I am certainly aware, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. 🙂
      Every Spring, I hope for nice weather, but know that most Springs it’s likely to be not so nice.

      1. Yes, and there’s definitely a difference between liking it and knowing it’s part of what we get.

        The thing about spring, we get our bouts of what most people would define as miserable (the chilly east wind, the overcast, the wet weather), and then we can flip the switch into a pattern like the next 3 days will be. Today’s a bit breezy for some, I am sure, but they’ll take this over many of the days we’ve had this month so far.

  14. Still only 63 here. I guess this will be one of these days where the high temperature will be about 5PM.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    A weather day fit for a queen!!!! 🙂

    A Happy Mothers Day to all moms, stepmoms, nanas, great-grandmas and all who fulfill that important maternal role for us and those in our world!!!! 🙂

    Happy Mothers Day, Mom! I love you! 🙂

  16. At 64 here and wondering if 67 is the over / under for today.

    And very breezy today.

  17. Happy Mother’s Day to all! 🙂

    Started my new pain meds this morning. As I take them throughout the day into the evening we’ll see if I can get a full nights sleep tonight. Haven’t had any real sleep since the surgery. The most so far was 3 hours but most nights have been pretty much “zero”.

  18. My over / under for today was 67 and I am at 67. Could be an over before the day is out.

      1. TK had a general range of 65-72 for high temps for a reason. 😉

        If anything, a few areas will under-achieve, but most areas hit the range. Current temps are 63-71 across the WHW forecast area.

        1. Yes, I understand that. It is just earlier today the temperature was rising so fast that I thought for sure
          we were going to over achieve, then WHAM the temperature dropped from 67 to 63 and remained there for hours.

          So it was a case of cold air advection winning out over the warming sun, until the sun overcame it. I presume.

          https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

          1. it was 67 at 9:03 this morning. 🙂
            I thought we were already in the “cooler” air as of late yesterday. I hadn’t realized that a cold front passed through here right around 9 AM. That certainly explains it. 🙂 🙂

            I had best pay better attention. 🙂 🙂

            1. We are cold advecting today, yes. 🙂 It’s pretty decent c.a. too, for mid May. The strong sun is offsetting it.

  22. Looks like cooler times ahead in the medium / long range.

    Euro Weeklies support this idea.

    1. I was looking 2 weeks out on the Euro and I’m seeing the warmer air almost getting here, but it looks like it’s being blocked. On the Windy app, I’m seeing a constant flow from from northeast to southwest.

  23. Happy Mother’s day to all the Moms out there. Glad it was a nice sunny day. Its getting cooler and cloudy here basically cloudy and stuck in the 50s/low 60s. My body is still not used to having a lack of Sun haha

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