The Week Ahead 2.0

30 Comments

4:47PM

Well I tried earlier, with confidence, to say that eastern MA and nearby areas would be largely storm-free this afternoon, but some pop up downpours have already proven this to be an incorrect postulation of events. And as of 4:30PM, a broken line of thunderstorms approaching Route 495 from the west is further proving my solution of today’s weather quite inaccurate.

Short term: Thunderstorms will cross much of eastern MA, southern NH, and parts of RI, between 4:30PM and 6:30PM. Although many of the storms will be weakening, some may produce gusty winds and very heavy rain

Remainder of the week ahead discussion, unchanged from previous post:

A cold front will cross the region from west to east during the first half of Monday, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting severe storms as this front will be arriving at the time furthest away from maximum heating, and because of somewhat more stable air ahead of it than what would be seen if the wind were more from the southwest or west. Either way, some of the showers and storms may contain gusty winds and downpours with brief flash flooding possible. Hopefully most of this will take place before Monday morning commute time and impact will be minimal.

Once the front clears the region, a quick shot of cooler and drier air will move in for the end of the day Monday through Tuesday morning. The humidity may actually start to increase again later Tuesday but should not be too noticeable. This slow process of becoming more humid will continue Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday looks like a fair weather day as weak high pressure remains in control. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend, things are a little less certain. A trough of low pressure is expected to drop into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. The question is, does it sit there for a while, move eastward right through the Northeast, or something in between? Obviously many people have outdoor plans, and also the nights of the 11th and 12th are important for star gazers as it will be time for the Perseid Meteor Shower. It’s too far away to start talking about detailed sky conditions. I hold out hope that if the trough holds back in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast is strong enough, we may see a pure tropical flow from the south, and though this often is a pattern of scattered showers and storms, we also see periods of clearer, haze-free sky as the air is coming from the tropics versus the more polluted Midwest. Plenty of time to figure out what will happen next weekend.

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Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Showers and thunderstorms crossing the region west to east, weakening with time, but still locally heavy downpours and gusty winds occurring in some locations. Temperatures cooling through the 80s into the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Another band of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west mainly after midnight. Lows around 70. Very humid. Wind S 10-15 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east morning. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Humid morning, less humid in the afternoon. Highs 80-85. Wind S shifting to W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Cooler and drier. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Dry morning, bit more humid later. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

30 thoughts on “The Week Ahead 2.0”

  1. Thanks TK !

    There appears to be a cell, around the area where Rt 128 and Rt 3 intersect, that is intensifying. Maybe near the Bedford/Wilmington area ?

  2. Storms were moving southwest to northeast – now it seems, especially the ones on the CT/MA line are moving more easterly. Rain-cooled air (73 degrees in Sudbury) and sky is brightening.

  3. Thanks, TK for your update. Don’t feel bad – no one can truly predict clearly the weather yet – even with all the fancy equipment. You still are pretty accurate in your forecasts!

  6. Just looked out west window – sky a bright yellowish-orange. And it is raining out. I love it when the sky looks like that – very summery.

    Looks like it’s going to be a wet and maybe noisy night. I am looking forward to some drier air, ‘though it still is going to be on the warm side.

    1. My grandson and I were just out looking for a rainbow but couldn’t find one :(. Amazing how yellow it is outside

  9. I think the 2 separate lines in ny will consolidate to 1 and will come through here between 10pm 1am

    1. I was thinking they would fizzle between darkness and storms that have been going thru this area this afternoon They seem to be weakening in middle – west of MA Since they do not seem severe I would like you to be right.

      Also having seen TK and Toms future cast for last two weeks in August I hope you don’t mind if I climb aboard your boat with cooler air. Of course they have cast us both out to sea but were kind enough to offer life jackets

        1. I figure with the two of us in the same corner (or boat somto speak) the two of them don’t stand a chance. ……..it’s mom nature who unfortunately is the wild card

    1. I’m getting off my boat and onto yours for these storms too. 10-11 is nice timing – I’m still awake……sort of

  11. my family came home early and said that they cleared the beach because of severe weather. Well around here there was some nasty thunder and lightning with really strong winds

  12. Leaving the house at 2 am for work tomorrow, hope the rain will be done. Next saturday were having a party here, hope the rain stays away for that.

  13. Tk I know it’s far out but as Florence enters over the gulf stream a couple hundred miles east of Florida am I am seeing that it is quite possible that strengthening will happen and bring it to hurricane status as it moves north toward NC? Thanks

  14. Its looks like one more line of showers and storms but it seems to be weakening. I was surprised with severe weather reports across SNE today. I thought if there would be any it would be extreme western areas of SNE. I even saw a tornado report in upstate NY.

    1. JJ imju st checked the radar and the cells don’t seem strong enuf for a severe warning. What am I missing. Even in the tornado box earlier it didn’t look severe

  15. I am hoping that Saturday can be rain free or close to it. I want to do a lot of shopping to take advantage of the tax-free weekend. There is one item in particular that I need badly. I personally do not like to shop on Sunday unless it is a real emergency.

    Jeremy Reiner has the best forecast that works for me. Friday a washout and Saturday very early showers then clearing with nice dry air returning by afternoon.

    TK, do you like his forecast or will the cold front stall as usual? 🙁

  16. I don’t see any all day washout since that very rarely happens in the summer but I think we go into an unsettled stretch late week into the weekend. I like Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

  17. Charlie, in response to your comment, some of the storms like Florence are still running into dry air and having trouble gaining strength. Also Florence is at a somewhat high latitude and may be destined to turn north before sucked into anything drawing it toward the mainland.

    However, tropical storms seem to be sensitive to enviromental/weather changes and can get finicky, so one never knows.

  18. Hi Everyone,

    Not much rain here so far (.06). Storms have weakened both times that they have gotten here.

    I agree with TK about the second half of August, especially if the NAO goes above Neutral for a while, which is being hinted at.

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