Sunday June 15 2025 Forecast (8:53AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

Happy Father’s Day to the dads reading! Another quick update as this recovery is like taking the Cog Railway up Mount Washington, but leaving the actual train behind… 😉 No big changes again. High pressure to northeast, gradually slips southward the next few days. Our air flow goes from easterly to southerly between now and midweek. Meanwhile, a little jet stream energy tries to move in at times. This, combined with increased low level moisture, will eventually lead to the return of shower chances in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, we get a brief shot of heat and humidity along with a chance of thunderstorms as a cold front will be approaching from the west at that time. And rewinding a bit, when I say “heat”, I don’t mean Bermuda High super heat blast etc. – like the hype you may have already seen on social media (“death ridge”, etc.) .. Ignore all that. Yup there’s some hot weather coming for parts of the East this coming week – it’s called a pattern change. For us, it means a brief shot of above normal temperatures as we’re in an overall west northwest jet flow and close to boundaries of cooler air.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower, mainly west of I-95 later-day. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. A shower possible. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

The summer solstice occurs at 10:54 p.m. on June 20. That day will feature less humidity but a shower or thunderstorm chance as a secondary trough sweeps through the region – most of the day being rain-free however. June 21-22 weekend looks mostly dry and seasonably warm but cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas on June 22 with a trough nearby. Another disturbance can bring a shower or storm threat June 23 and/or 24.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free and fairly seasonable, with some normal temperature variability.

52 thoughts on “Sunday June 15 2025 Forecast (8:53AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Happy Father’s Day ……, I can’t believe it’s mid June.

  5. Thank you TK and hope all is well.

    I am putting the over / under in Swampscott at 64F. If the easterlies win out, 64F might be tough to hit.

    Not sure if all towns along the south shore will get to 60F.

  8. To be sure, it’s cool today, however, I could feel some warmth of the sun poking through thinner clouds and thus, it feels better today.

    In contrast, there was no warmth from the sun yesterday and through early afternoon, it lightly showered or sprinkled to add to the chill.

  9. For those of you that already wrote the Red Sox off, not only are they back at .500, they are only 1 game out of the Wild Card with 90 games to play.

    1. The young players being called up have definitely added some energy to the team and have made watching them much more appealing.

      Excellent last rotation from the starters.

      And Crochet has to be battling today’s Yankee starter, Max Fried for the leaders thus far for the Cy Young award.

      1. I watch every game I can. I thought in the beginning of the year they would be just above 500. I would love to see them somewhere around 540-550.

        They’ve held Judge to very little. Judge’s weakness at times has been pitches that are low and away. Of course that’s also true for a lot of hitters.

        Game today is 1:35 PM.

  10. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Fathers Day to all dads, stepdads, poppas and important father figures in the lives of children. 🙂

    The Sox are fun to watch right now and I will be doing that after mowing the lawn.

  11. Regarding heat….

    This coming Thursday, model consensus upper 80s to lower 90s.

    Next Tuesday, both the GFS and Euro have 100 degrees or more
    for the Boston area. We’ll see how these verify or not.

      1. SHHHHH

        Many folks have a severe heat/humidity sensitivity and become quite ill in this type of weather. Consider yourself very lucky that you don’t suffer from that.

        2. Old salty I realize that , it was not meant to be disrespectful, I don’t like the cold I like the heat .

  12. Thursday might have some thunderstorm potential. Will see if any thunderstorms become strong to severe. Hopefully the heat next Tuesday is overdone on the guidance.

    1. I presume it is overdone as well, but one never knows. something to watch for sure.

    2. I thought of that, but so far neither the GFS or the EURO
      show any convection on their charts. 🙂

    1. That would be absolutely Brutal!!!!

      A temperature of 100 with DP 71 – Heat Index of: 109
      An if either temperature, dew point or both is higher, then heat index would exceed 110. Very dangerous for some people!!

  14. Not for nothing but the EURO projected 850 MB temperatures
    are at 25C!!!! Not sure I have ever seen that!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2025061512&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Aside from the projected temperature, let’s take a look at a theoretical high temperature possibility would would be
    take the 850 MB temp in F (77) and add 5.5 F for each 1,000 feet. 850 MB is approximately 5,000 feet depending on pressure at the time.

    So take 77 and add 27.5 (5.5 * 5) = 104.5

    https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/278/

    OR

    Forecasting surface high temperatures using 850-mb temperatures is a technique that leverages the relationship between temperatures at this altitude and surface temperatures, especially on well-mixed, sunny days. By assuming the daytime boundary layer extends to 850 mb, the temperature at this level can be used to estimate the maximum surface temperature.
    Here’s a breakdown of the method:
    1. Understanding the Relationship:

    The 850-mb level is roughly 1.5 kilometers (about 5,000 feet) above sea level.
    In a well-mixed boundary layer, temperature decreases with height at a rate of about 10°C per kilometer.
    Therefore, if the atmosphere is well-mixed up to 850 mb, the temperature at that level can be used to estimate the surface temperature

    And we use Centigrade the surface temperature could be
    25C + (10C * 1.5 ) = 40C or 104 F

  15. Lost 12 pounds on my diet & exercising the last 6 weeks . I think I tossed it out the window this afternoon cooking steak tips , turkey tips , Chinese sausage, salads & strawberry cake . I’m screwed !!!

  16. Teleconnections wise, PNA, NAO, etc, a setup of healthy NW us trof and central/eastern ridge looks reasonable early NEXT week.

    I think we’ll have to watch if the impressive progressive strengths of these 2 features hold in the coming days. 597 dm ridge in the east, that seems more in place in July or August, when the atmosphere is even warmer.

    I think as we progress, perhaps the models dial back some to 591 dm and projected temps closer to lower 90s, etc.

  18. Red Sox SWEEP Yankees with 2-0 win!! 1st time this year the Yanks have been swept. Sox manhandled Judge.

    Sox over 500 and off to the west coast.

    1. I hope this will be the impetus to more consistent winning. The opportunity is NOW!

      They don’t need to “light it up”, if they can just win 4 games on the trip. Of course 5+ would be fantastic imo.

  19. Thanks TK! Hope you are feeling better – at least the sun came out today but this beach bum has us at 0-4 as far as having good beach weather on weekends. So it would make sense that the heat comes roaring in to make up for this putrid start to beach season

  21. First time the Yankees have been swept this season.
    1-5 against the Red Sox.

  22. The Ensemble means for next Tuesday are generally lower to middle 90s. Given that it is still a Day 10 forecast, I put ZERO stock into the operational runs.

    1. I hope you’re right on that, but I do find it interesting that you and TK seem to have little or no faith in 7-10 day forecasts in general.

      1. It’s not “no faith” really.

        We both make medium range forecasts regularly, and we make them with a realistic expectation that they may, and hopefully are at least good enough, but may end up being not that great…

        When it comes to model forecasts, or simulations, more accurately put, you know how we both feel about those.

        That’s when it becomes about the ability to know how to USE the tools, not just “put what the model has because, well, that’s what the model says!” 😉

    1. Stunned.

      Devers is the Sox best hitter by a very wide margin. If the trade return was high quality pitchers, I’d say great. But it’s not. It’s more middling stuff.

  25. Stunned.

    Devers is the Sox best hitter by a very wide margin. If the trade return was high quality pitchers, I’d say great. But it’s not. It’s more middling stuff.

    1. One pitcher is on the injured list and the other will be sent to AAA with the remainder just “prospects”. Oh brother.

      Sox get absolutely NOTHING out of the deal, other than adding to the loss column for the rest of the season. 🙁

  27. Chilly times in Alaska, and things you won’t hear in the news…

    Fairbanks: Latest first 70 degree day on record.

    Anchorage: Coolest first ten days of June in a half century.

    1. I heard recently on the radio news that Alaska is warming 2x faster than the lower 48.

      1. That general idea has been around for a very long time (about 75 years).

        If you take the statewide average, it’s warmed at about .65 degrees per decade, while the Lower 48 average is about 0.35 degrees per decade. This is explained due to Arctic Amplification, coming mostly from regions that had permafrost, that then lost it over time..

        These areas have gained and lost permafrost cyclically over the large time scale.

        1. So the Alaska “warming” has been happening all along? Global warming has nothing to do with it?

          1. No. There is a relationship there as well.

            I was giving you the physical reasons why the rate is faster there. Media always leaves out the science.

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