Monday June 16 2025 Forecast (7:55AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

A maritime air mass that took up residence here over the weekend hangs around early this week as well, keeping it on the cool side. A deck of status clouds and some fog blanket much of eastern MA and the NH Seacoast to start today, but fog will thin and dissipate and clouds will break with time. Tuesday will see more cloudiness return as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The approach of this front can also trigger patchy light rainfall at any time during the day and into the nighttime hours as well. Wednesday, we’ll be behind the front, in the warm sector, with a humid southerly air flow bringing lots of clouds and the chance of passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, though most of the day in any location will be rain-free. Thursday, a wind shift to southwest allows a shot of heat into the region – modified of course along the South Coast by flow off the ocean. We’ll have to watch for some stronger thunderstorm activity with a cold front approaching from the west – timining / coverage / intensity TBD and largely dependent on the front’s timing. Right now, my leaning is late timing, which would mean the better chance for heavier storms would be the western reaches of the WHW forecast area, and a weaker version of activity into the remainder of the region in the evening or nightime, but a few days remain to fine-tune this. Behind the cold front on Friday comes drier and slightly cooler air, but an upper disturbance can still trigger a passing shower or thunderstorm that day. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday June 20…

TODAY: Low clouds and fog southeastern NH / eastern MA thinning and breaking, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Short periods of light rain possible. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. A shower possible. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, variable near storms, shifting to NW overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Early days of summer / summertime pattern. A front may bring a shower or thunderstorm later June 22 or June 23, again late in the period. Otherwise a generally dry and warm pattern in store.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

78 thoughts on “Monday June 16 2025 Forecast (7:55AM)”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not sure it even reaches 90 on Thursday. Either way it will feel very hot compared to the STINKO weather we’ve been having with a persistent EAST wind, the wrath of Spring.

  7. I am really struggling with WORDLE. Previous 2 days it took me the full 6 guesses and today it took 4 guesses.

    One complaint. Unless I am missing something, it does not let the player know if a letter is used twice. That messed me up with today’s word.

    1. Do you mean after you’ve guessed a letter and it was not in the solution? If so, it should be dark gray or black in the keyboard displayed in the game. You can enter it again, but the color tells you that you already tried.

      1. NO, I mean IO guess a word and a letter is in the word and it comes up as green. It is there it does NOT let you know that the letter appears twice. I saw somewhere that there was supposed to be a little 2 in the top right hand corner, BUT I don’t see that. I don’t think it is fair. 🙂

        1. So it looks like you actually have to guess it twice in a word, making the solution all the more difficult.

    2. It’s often tough to remember that a letter could appear more than once.

      I had a four today but yesterday was a very lucky two.

  8. Thanks TK. Extended forecasts on ch. 5 show high temps for part of next week reaching the upper 90s. Is the crazy product of a bad model or likely to happen?

    Hope you are feeling better.

  9. Next Tuesday still looks very hot. Still 8+ days out. Something to watch. 0Z Euro still had close to 100.

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2025061600&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2025061600&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    594-597 dm ridge

    Teleconnections suggest cool west, warm east in this time frame.

    Just getting the details as time gets closer

    including possible backdoor fronts (GFS) or cloud debris taking several degrees off of 100F projections.

    But, no, I don’t think the models are going to do an about 180 and have it hot out west and cool in the east early next week.

  11. Imagine the hype this weekend if the models are correct for next week. I just got back from Sarasota on Thursday the heat index down there was 100-105 with 76 dew points. Those temps are hard on some people so they stay inside like we do up here in the winter ❄️. I’ve been blessed with good health so fortunately I can handle the extremes in temperature. I will be seventy in September. Good health to everyone here on this awesome site.

    1. Welcome to the 70+ club. There are actually a few of us here on the blog. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Still a few years away from that club as I’ll be just turning 65 towards the end of this year.

        TBD if I even make it out of my 60s.

  12. FWIW,

    The 6Z NAM only has about 87 for Boston on Thursday with 850 MB temperature of 17C.

    Waiting on the 12z run.

  13. I understand the whole 3rd base, DH, and 1st base controversy and the ensuing bad blood, but really trading Devers … ?!

    1. True, but we do not know how Dever’s mood and behavior in the club house was affecting the rest of the team. I assume that management thought he was or was becoming a cancer and had to be removed. I do understand that.

      1. I don’t know the story but my guess is you may be right. I have said before that we were guests at Ted’s Islamorada home when he called Yaz and was quite angry at him. The sox were in a slump and Yaz had been regularly Tywalking in from left field looking dejected. Ted lectured him for a while on his responsibility to keep the moral up. He told him you never walk in with head down. No matter what you ran in with head high.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    Last week of school. The last day is Friday. Half day for the kiddos; full day for the staff.

        1. I know you will be missed but I’m so happy for you. Wishing you great happiness.

  17. So, the 12Z NAm still keeps it under 90 Thursday for Boston

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061612&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061612&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    BUT BUT BUT

    It does have 850 MB temperatures of 21 C

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850th&rh=2025061612&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    which could potentially mean a high temperature of as high as
    97 with complete mixing. So there is some wiggle room in that projected high temperature.

  18. Regarding a severe threat for Thursday from the Norton NWS office:

    As for rain chances, late Tuesday and for Wednesday, there are
    lower risks of shower activity, but majority of the time looks
    dry. Late the week zonal flow becomes ridged in the west and
    trough in the east. A cold front approaches New England Thursday
    afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk.
    While we are looking five days out there is already an area
    highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe
    storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance
    has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including
    mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35
    knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region
    with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive
    this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.

  19. To: JpDave

    I agree with your Devers comment. My post states there was bad blood and it’s no secret that it spilled into the locker room. I wish they could have worked it out with Devers. Sometimes Boston sports teams trades are baffling. The B’s dropped Marchand and he has been a monster in the Stanley Cup playoff games. The Patriots have some in the past which made no sense to me.

    Please let me know about the lightning detector after you give it a try.

    1. I will post on the blog. I am most curious.
      Would be nice to have while out fishing. For someone hiking or golfing it might be most valuable.

      Thanks for the Devers input. Something was going on there for sure.

        1. I’m interested too but more for fun for me and also to loan to my granddaughter when working at the barn or out riding.

  20. Philip, I think it was you who mentioned Alaska’s warming yesterday. I got curious. It is warming apparently three to four times faster than the global average.

    These three links are interesting

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/new-report-highlights-alaska’s-last-five-years-dramatic-climate

    https://www.uaf.edu/news/alaska-continues-to-change-fast.php

    https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/science-rapid-climate-change-alaska-and-arctic-sea-ice-land-ice-and-sea-

    1. Thanks Vicki.

      So goes Alaska, so goes the lower 48. 😉

      I find it fascinating how the colder locations throughout the world are warming so much faster than everywhere else. I believe this includes the Arctic and Antarctica regions.

      1. From what I read the lower 48 is behind Alaska.

        This is AI generated. Most years are this century. We sometimes forget that because it is cold in one area that the world is a big place so that doesn’t dictate world records. It’s the same saying 3-6 and expecting all 6s when there are 3s

        1. Remember how May was cold here. This is also AI generated

          May 2025 was the second-warmest May on record globally, with a global average temperature of 15.79 degrees Celsius, just 0.12 degrees below the record set in May 2024, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. The contiguous U.S. also experienced above-average temperatures in many areas, with Florida recording its second-warmest May.

  22. Something to keep an eye on, as pointed out by the “other’ TK (Tim Kelley). For a couple of runs now, the ECMWF has been generating what looks to be a derecho that develops in the Dakotas Friday night, scoots right across the Northern Great Lakes Saturday, and into Northern New England Saturday night.

    1. Lovely. We had mountain Laurel in our Framingham yard. I always enjoyed when it bloomed

  24. Absolutely beautiful today.

    I am aware of what’s coming, so I’ll take whatever I can get.

  25. A cicada flying through an open window of a car, causing the driver to crash, is being termed a “cicada attack”.

    Media, you have issues. Big, big issues.

    1. They are totally harmless, but I imagine quite startling if flying around inside yhe car. Cicada attack??? Hardly. I supoosecthe driver thought it was a gigantic wasp.

      1. I definitely sympathize with the driver. Not fun.

        The media though. Why call this an attack? It CLEARLY was not. I am so sick of the lying and drama by mainstream media.

        1. My sources tell me that it was a remotely-controlled drone cicada. So far, no group has taken credit for the attack. The drone was captured in the car and is being analyzed for telltale signs of the usual suspects in the area of Modern Insect Warfare.

          Stay tuned for updated to this breaking story!

          🙂

            1. BAHAHA …

              “Breaking News” .. another exceedingly overused phrase.

        2. I suppose it was a “cicada incursion”, though we don’t need that in a headline either.

  26. From Tomer Burg
    Keep this in mind when you see scary looking model maps of 105+ degrees in the I-95 corridor next week.

    The ECMWF & EPS models tend to have a hot bias in the summer in the medium to long range. It will be hot, but likely not *that* hot.

    1. Pretty much like usual, but all of the people “playing weatherman” love to forget that so they can get people riled up.

      Meanwhile, us professionals actually know what we’re doing. 😉

  27. I believe that the Devers trade had been planned for months ever since he refused to play first base when management requested back in spring training. Devers sealed his own fate and yesterday, Sox management sealed the fate of the team.

    1. haven’t sern one of those in 50 years. I used to see them here in JP. but not any more.

  30. I agree the Euro has a warm season, warm bias.

    Just reporting that the Euro at 18z on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, I believe, projects 100F and 102F, respectively, at Logan.

    Its warmest temps yet as it projected its strongest 500 mb ridge.

    Whereas, it has been mostly 594 dm heights, its now projecting 597 dm.

    1. On Wednesday’s 102F, it shows dp’s dropping into the mid-upper 50s and has that classic early morning SW wind becoming the classic (in the rare cases we eclipse 100F) WNW downsloping wind.

  32. The GDPS is more moderately hot next Monday and Wednesday, low to mid 90s. samdwiched around a Tuesday that is cooler in eastern areas due to a back door front trying to sag southwestward.

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