Tuesday AM Update

120 Comments

7:21AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH. Full discussion later today.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from upper 70s South Coast to middle 80s inland areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-65, few upper 50s inland valleys. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 63. High 77.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 82.

120 thoughts on “Tuesday AM Update”

  1. Thanks TK. Doesn’t look to good for my drive to Toronto on Friday….I think it will be quite wet from what I am seeing. What are your thoughts for the weather this weekend in Toronto. It looks to me like they will be on the western edge of any showers.

      1. Thanks Vicki. Still unsure of what border crossing I am going to do. The one we took in April up at the Thousand Islands was only one lane in each direction and quite steep. My wife is not a big fan of bridges!

      1. Thanks Rainshine! We have family there that I haven’t spent time with in a long time. It will be a quick but fun trip! I just hate the drive.

    3. Just looks plain showery right now. Hopefully it will be a setup that at least allows for spokes of drier air and breaks between shower activity.

      1. I am hoping since we will be going to a lake a couple hours of north of Toronto on Sat and Sun.

  3. Thanks TK.
    Going to be enjoying the next few days before the humidity returns. SPC has parts of the interior in the slight risk of severe storms. I think the biggest threat with any of the showers or storms that forms will be the potentially for heavy rain especially with a humid air mass in place. Thursday to me right now looks like the day if were going to see strong to locally severe storms and that would be in the interior west of Worcester.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    Beautiful day today – just about perfect, weather-wise! We were out early to get car maintenance done. There was a nice light chill in the air. Warmed up nicely now, ‘though.

        1. Shhhhhhhh. That’s what I thought it was…..I just want someone to tell me it’s too far out and we will not have a TS three years in a row while on vacation 😀

          How was your birthday celebration, rainshine ?

          1. It was great, Vicki, thanks. Got lots of cards and some gifts 🙂 . We didn’t eat out anywhere fancy ’cause it was kind of hot – but I did get pizza! Pizza and pasta are some of my favorite foods. But I guess my real comfort food is a roast turkey dinner with stuffing, mashed potatoes and gravy. Another reason I love the fall and winter – Thanksgiving and Christmas!

            1. Oh yum. A friend had a small turkey dinner last weekend and it sounded sooooo good. I’m glad your birthday was so much fun.

              1. couldn’t go wrong with grilled burgers and hot dogs with fresh herbs. Early summer corn. 😀

            2. My all time favorite is a roast turkey dinner too! I can’t wait for Thanksgiving. A few years ago, we had Thanksgiving at my brother-in-law’s and all he served was Turkey, stuffing and salad! The year without the mashed potatoes will never be forgotten!

              1. Oh that’s is just plain wrong. You need ALL the fixins. And now I really want a turkey dinner. Yummmm

                1. I just refer to it now as the Thanksgiving without potatoes. It is just wrong not to have them! I could eat any kind of potato every day.

          2. i am hoping it misses us big time that is my brothers birthday for one and two I have Band camp. They will make us march rain or shine and if anything was going to come up here i would like to track it for one and two i really do not want it to come up here if it forms. remember what happened after the last one. no Neagative Nao for most of the winter

              1. Hopefully we will have a postive NAO this winter too. I love the snow but hate all the work that comes with it!

  7. I think a good part of the viewing area comes in at over an inch of rain Fri/Sat and some will get more 🙂

  9. The GFS has been nothing but consistent at the end of its runs for some kind of tropical system hanging around out there off the US eastern seaboard. 18Z has a hurricane going over Bermuda and making a sharp right turn away from the US. It is a long time away but suffice to say, the tropics will be gearing up

      1. Ur right North, didnt even think of that. I hope its not a repeat of last year. I bet the consistency of the GFS will start to draw more attention of the mets if it hasnt already. Question for anyone, is there a different model mets use for tropical systems?

        1. Not just last year my friends. Past two years. Earl and Irene. That’s what I’ve been griping about. We’ve been in scituate in vacation for both

          1. To be precise it’s a few days ahead of last year and about 9–10 ahead of earl.

            Say it ain’t so

            1. We will hope your vacation is good and it waits until after! You could be on location reporting for us…..

              1. Haha. Can’t. Water on both sides of house that comes into driveway. Cars in driveway. We had to go home both times 🙁

        3. I was just thinking too that the one that is now at a 30% chance for development is the one the GFS seems to be latching on to because it would put it here in 10-14 days. Unless it is the one still over Africa behind that.

          1. If the NAO is positive or negative, what gives us a better chance of seeing a tropical storm or hurricane? I think it would be positive because a trough over us would deflect it wouldn’t it?

              1. I havent said a word tonight Vicki about tropical storms or hurricanes 🙂

                If you dont want it to happen, then keep hoping for the GFS to show it.

                2. Odds to have a tropical system in the Atlantic during the last two weeks of August….fairly high. But….odds of it impacting New England, fairly low. 🙂

  12. I hope whomever lives in coastal Belize was able to receive communications to allow enough time for some kind of preparation today. Unfortunately, Ernesto looks like its at its strongest now at landfall. The central dense overcast around the center looks impressive.

    1. I sure hope they had warning also. Tom, is it Ernesto that is on the models for August 22-24 timeframe also or is that another disturbance?

  13. The low to mid 60s dewpoints are back tonight, already. Atlantic City, NJ’s dewpoint is 73F and Philadelphia’s is 71F. I guess its back to tropical humidity for a while.

  14. Great blog! My friend showed me the way here and I’m loving it, very informative. You can count me in as a frequent visitor. My name is Ashley, I’m going into my second year of the Atmospheric Sciences program at Lyndon State :). Loving the way Ernesto is looking on the satellite, been keeping an eye on it for awhile.

        1. There’s an area of showers/storms that the NHC has assigned a 30% chance for development, as well as disturbances on the African continent ready to move out into the Atlantic ocean. So, the GFS is probably keying onto one of those features.

          Pattern wise, it seems the long range big picture idea is to feature a bigger prescence of the Bermuda High and thus the varied solutions of the last few days of a tropical system somewhere along the east coast.

    2. seriously thats band camp for me. if it does come up and i hope it does not then i want to be home tracking it

  17. Plenty of time to watch that system.
    The humidity coming back and so does the unsettled weather Thursday through Saturday. As I said the other day it will not rain all day. Tomorrow it looks like far western areas could see strong to a locally severe thunderstorm. The heavy rain to me is the bigger issue rather than a severe weather threat at this time.

  18. That tropical system will not affect east coast, it’s going to be pressed westward into the gulf of Mexico

    1. Thanks Charlie – I’m just going to remain on your boat if you don’t mind! Either way it does add interest!

    2. I hope so, for our sake and for the sake of everyone on the east coast, that u are right. Its all about the placement of that high pressure in the middle of the atlantic. The further south the better chance the systems stay south, but as someone mentioned, if it becomes a bermuda high, then watch out

  20. The 00Z EURO at 180 hrs this morning now has a developing low in almost the exact placement as the 6Z GFS on Wed. 8/15, just to the north and east of the Lesser/Greater Antillies? (i never know which is which) I believe this would be the eventual system. Both models agree about the placement of the system to that point as well as placement of high pressures and overall pattern in the atlantic

  21. I forgot who mentioned this about the NAO on the blog but when Irene came up the coast the NAO was negative as was the case when we got the remenants from Lee. I hope if there is a storm in the Atlantic we get a cold front to coming through and force to make a turn over the fish.

  23. So apparently, the GFS accurately predicted what Ernesto has done to this point…just something to keep in mind

  24. I’ll try and find it again and post the link, but there was an interesting website that I found yesterday that went through all the major hurricanes (> Cat 1) to directly hit our area since records were kept. Historically, about every 50-58 years this happens. Apparently, this year marks 58 years since the last major hurricane. We have not gone longer than 58 years in 400+ years…

      1. phew I feel as if I’ve just dodged a bullet – I thought we’d had one when I was older than

        I have Donna in Sept 1960 at cat 2/3

        And please do not tell me she doesn’t count 🙁

        1. whoa – Bob was a cat 2 – surprised me as I thought he was weaker than Gloria – at least in this area.

  25. The only hurricanes to hit New England in my life Gloria in 85 and Bob in 91. I have been saying for years New England is long overdue for a strike from a hurricane.

  26. Definitely praying that nothing comes our way. I’d rather save it for a good snow storm! What about Saturday??? Our church is having a cookout and we are trying to figure out if we should postpone. Is it a wash-out as channel 7 keeps saying or is there hope?

    1. I think Dylan tempered her forecast this morning and said showers. I am half asleep when I listen but did think that she’d gone more in line with TK.

      1. Oh good…last I heard was Pete B last night and he kept saying that Saturday was a complete wash-out. However, I almost wish it were since then the decision is easy to postpone. Showers aren’t horrible but not real fun for an outdoor event. Ugh…decisions, decisions!

        1. Those kinds of decisions are so difficult. Mostly because you don’t want to disappoint people and then because everyone will have his/her own opinion. Good luck. The one thing I know and suspect all at your church know is how much you care and how difficult it is to be in that position.

  27. I think the hurricane they are referring to 58 years ago was Carol in 1954. Nothing has been even close to as strong and destructive since

  28. Some good news for the summer lovers:

    July 2012 was hottest month on record for contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, NOAA says.

    2. It’s just a weather cycle right? Wrong it’s global warming, over the next 50 yrs Boston will have its 1st winter with 0 snowfall 🙂

  29. have a new brace that allows me to take it off when i want to go in the pool but sadly the pool is green 🙁 and they say do not do much on land. this makes no since to me :/
    i can swim but can not but pressure on it.

    1. I think swimming is the most gentle/even type of pressure – it’s really great for rehabilitation. Maybe someone else here knows more than I do.

    1. Did you see news about July hottest month in history of keeping records. Above

      Here not so bad so thought it would make you happy. With horrendous drought elsewhere not so good

      1. I dont think its an all day rain Saturday John….rather maybe a line or two of showers and storms during the day.

        I wonder what the July temp anomolies were across the pond ? I think parts of northwest Europe have been rainy and chilly.

  31. Dylan mentioned on her morning blog that her wedding will take place on Saturday October 6th. I wonder if it will be here or her home state of NJ? By that time she will be on her second month of her Weekend Today Show gig.

    Who knows…maybe Dylan will be in line to take over Al Roker during the week someday. Still years away from his retirement I imagine. I believe he is somewhere in his 50’s. 😉

  32. Today’s sun angle and length of day were equal to May 3rd. So, come this Saturday, its April 30th equivalent.

      1. Hi Philip.

        I use 2 things. First, is the old Farmer’s Almanac. Thats what I like it most for, their monthly pages that contain the day of length, sun declination and tides.

        The other is google Taunton National Weather Service. Go down on the left side of the page (almost near the bottom) and click The Sun and Moon (its under miscellaneous). There, under a few drop boxes, you can determine the location, month and year you’d like sun or moon data for.

        1. Thanks Tom! I went to the Taunton NWS site. 🙂

          P.S. You should also consider teaching earth science as well! 🙂

  33. Does anyone know How Friday night will be after 7 be for the ferry to the vineyard ? Thank you!

    1. From what I see there will be showers around, it will be tough at this time to say whether it will be raining in those areas, but there will be showers around 🙂

      1. The other issue could be fog as some really tropical air is coming northward ahead of a surface low traveling to the west of the region.

    1. Pretty cool Coastal. Sent me reminiscing. I was fortunate to get into University of North Carolina at Asheville. Remember flying there for a tour, etc. Chose LSC instead.

  35. Pardon my slowness updating. Working on update now. Posted as soon as possible!

    Previews…
    Humidity is coming back Thursday through Saturday. Hottest day Thursday, wettest time Saturday morning, thunderstorm threats far NW of Boston Thursday, still fairly far to the NW Friday but moving closer later, and one more round later Saturday all areas. Will take a look at weather for the Perseid Meteor Shower as well.

  37. Not often I say this about an 18z run, but the 18z GFS is the smartest run in a while.

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