Thursday June 19 2025 Forecast (7:36AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A few forecast tweaks in this update to an otherwise similar outlook to yesterday’s. We start the day under a blanket of stratus clouds for much of the region which will hold back the temperature rise and take a degree or two off the potential high temps for the day, but we’re still in for a fairly hot and humid day, the first real widespread one for the region this late spring. After that cloud layer thins and dissipates, we’ll have a fair amount of sun, but some high cloud areas from upstream thunderstorms can move in later. For the WHW, the timing of an approaching cold front is late to optimize the opportunity for widespread big thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be quite unstable and a fairly healthy low for this time of year will be passing to our north, but timing / frontal position dictates that the most likely area for a solid or broken line of storms to form will be over NY State moving into VT and western MA / CT late-day / early evening. A few advanced isolated to scattered storms can occur ahead of this, but coverage would be less, into western portions of the WHW region (around the CT River Valley). I suspect whatever is left of the line will make its way in broken and weakening fashion across the rest of the region during the mid to late evening hours. A few of the storms can last longer (stronger cells that find a way to survive – outflow boundary regeneration, interaction with other boundaries, etc – which are things we can only now-cast by watching radar). Once the cold front moves through the region a couple hours either side of midnight west to east, the storm threat will come to an end, and a drier air mass will arrive. A tweak to this forecast update regarding Friday is to remove the shower and thunderstorm chance – the reason being the most unstable area in response to the disturbance passing by will be well to the west and southwest and I don’t expect more than fair weather clouds, a gusty breezy, drier air, but still warm temps. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday. Looking into the weekend, you’ve heard talk of a complex of thunderstorms forming Friday night in the upper Plains / Midwest. I still think this will be the case. But first, we may see some debris cloudiness in the area from a small complex ahead of that one passing through our sky early Saturday, a day that otherwise looks dry and pleasantly warm. It’s that night that clouds arrive from the larger complex of storms as it exits the Great Lakes and moves through Upstate NY, adjacent southern Canada and into northwestern New England. In decaying state, it can send some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds through our region sometime in the 3:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. time window of Sunday – timing and details to be tweaked further on this. The remainder of Sunday would be similar to Friday – breezy, dry, and warm. Looking ahead to Monday, it heats up again with a 90+ high temp potential. However a weak pressure gradient leaves the coast vulnerable to sea breezes, so it may be a “not-so-fast” kind of deal on the heat for the coast. Will watch that as it’s still several days away.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun through mid morning. Sun dominant late morning to mid afternoon. Cloud/sun mix later on. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible southwestern NH, central MA, and adjacent CT late afternoon / early evening. Highs 80-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms west to east this evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+ evening, falling to 50s overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 57-64,. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds early with a shower or thunderstorm possible Boston area southward, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 86-93, but can be cooler along the coastline. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Brief heat spike expected June 24 but again watch for a cooler coast. Back-door front should cool the region down, maybe with a passing shower or thunderstorm briefly otherwise mostly fair weather middle of next week. Isolated showers / storms as warmer air tries to return later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

118 thoughts on “Thursday June 19 2025 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    73 here with dp 67 after low of only 69.
    Plenty of Sunshine here. Nothing to retard the temperature rise.

    How high will it go?

    Only 1 AC installed. The other 2 are going in tomorrow and/or Saturday as we can’t wait any longer. Just looks to be too hot/humid starting Sunday for at least a few days. Can’t survive
    that with 1 AC. We can survive 1 day with 1 AC, but not 3+ days.

    I actually ordered a stair climbing dolly to move ACs from attic downstairs. Supposed to arrive today. They are just getting too heavy for me at my age.

      1. Ugh, WordPress is not image-friendly!

        My first guess today worked well for me and I got it in 3.

        1. Awesome. 4/6 for me.

          JPD if you are getting Wordle more than not, I think you are definitely getting it going. You’re doing great.

          Wordle 1,461 4/6

          ⬜⬜⬜
          ⬜⬜⬜

      2. Is that what you expected? Doesn’t look right to me.
        What is the 3/6? Did you get today’s word in 3? if so, that would be AWESOME! It was a tricky word.

          1. So does this mean you have played over 1400 games and you averaged getting the word in 3 guesses? That is phenomenal!!!

            1. Oh no! The 1461 is the number of today’s game. Tomorrow will be 1462.

              The 3/6 means that I got it in 3 guesses today.

              1. Oh, ok. Thanks
                Today’s in 3 guesses is very good, I think anyway.
                Once again, I lost guesses as my 1st word yielded nothing.

                1. One last comment. Oddly either first or second words yielding nothing seems much more common recently for everyone I follow. I had one letter in my first word and zero in my second a couple of nights ago.

      3. I tried that also. I’m not sure why the copy and paste results work elsewhere but not here.

        1. It looks like the only squares that appear in WordPress are the ones that were misses. In your case it was 3 in the first guess, 3 in the second and 1 in the third.

          I wish this worked.

          1. Good catch. And I wish it worked also. I, along with a few others, post daily on FB. It’s pie simple

  2. No changes with the latest update that came out about 10 minutes ago.
    My prediction Severe Thunderstorm Watch Springfield area west.

  3. This is not a big severe weather event but a couple towns in western areas of SNE could get a strong to severe thunderstorm. Heavy rain, lightning, strong wind gusts would be the main threats.

  4. Warm night coming tonight, may not get below 70F in central and eastern MA

    But, lowering humidity and modest cold air advection tomorrow will hold temps to a 10-14F rise from morning low temps and with a nice breeze a dps falling into the 50s, I think tomorrow has top 10 day potential for comfortable summer weather.

      1. True, but it can be a positive to ventilate drier air into houses, etc and I think it will feel refreshing.

  5. I am hoping next week will be the worst of the heat for the summer. I expect heat alerts for early next week.

  6. 82, dp 72 the YUCK is BUILDING!!!

    1/2 hour to noon and still only 82, not sure 90 is in the cards and that is a good thing as far as I am concerned. But we’ll see how the temperature responds to the mid-day and early afternoon high sun angle.

  7. As of 11AM 81 temperature 77 for the dewpoint. The highest dewpoint I have every experienced in my life was 81 7 years ago when I was vacationing in Virginia.
    STICKORAMA YUCKORAMA

  8. Temp range at noon…

    65 Nantucket to 85 Norwood.

    What a day of tremendous heat! Unforgettable! 😉

  9. It’s 84F and doesn’t feel terrible outside. Yucky, yes. Awful, absolutely not. Worthy of the nonstop heat warnings? No. And you all know how much I detest heat and humidity.

    I can’t stand the hype on TV. Wouldn’t a straightforward, more accurate forecast without hype be better for ratings? Or is it all about the show? I pine for no nonsense news of all kinds. Not just weather, current events, and politics. Sports, too. I hate the overdramatization and soap operas. It makes me watch less, not more TV.

  10. I just headed to the center to pick up some things from a friend. Nws says 89 with 77 dp here. We stood outside and chatted for a bit. I am not complaining cause I have AC but it not only felt uncomfortable but I needed to use my inhaler and systane eye drops when I got home.

    1. It’s media at its best. I never cared to learn weather conditions from other than an actual and local meteorologist

  11. Those thunderstorms feeding up off a very unstable atmosphere.
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 9pm for most of the SNE the exception eastern areas of SNE.

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061912&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z Euro Tuesday temp projections

    Observations:

    The projected strength of this next ridge hasn’t backed off. It’s maintaining, as the days go by of 594-597 dm which is multiple deviations above avg heights.

    I feel like the ridge’s strength peaks Monday, Monday night and is ever so slightly starting to get flattened a bit in southern Canada, but that’s a sign of a disturbance trying to approach, ahead of which would generate some sfc wind at the surface in southern New England.

    So, yes, sitting here right now, 126 hrs out, I think 98F at Logan definite has a shot as does a 100F. I think the dps might drop into mid 50s Tuesday afternoon, add down sloping and if the seabreeze is held at bay at Logan, it has a real chance of a new June record.

  13. Thanks TK.

    Up to 87F here in Coventry with a 75F dewpoint and a heat index of 97F. It is indeed PUTRID out there as Dave would say.

    We are headed to NJ tonight for a softball tournament this weekend. Looks nice tomorrow and near 90 over the weekend down there. As long as the humidity stays lower, it’ll be manageable.

    Vicki, a belated Happy Birthday! Hope you enjoyed your day.

    And Captain, congrats on your retirement!

    1. Thank you, Mark. I had a lovely day complete with a surprise visit and flowers from my son late evening

  14. I think our favorite reporting location has its first 90F day.

    90F at one of those 54 min obs, 1:54pm specifically.

  15. Not a severe thunderstorm but I got some gusty winds and loud thunder along with lightning.

  16. A good portion of the area, including here, is under a severe t storm watch.

    Sorry if this has already been mentioned

  17. The thunderstorm which was non severe is now severe warned heading toward Hartford. Some gusty winds, brief heavy rain, lightning, loud thunder when the storm was in my area.

  18. Not as bad as the media hype. Course I was in low activity mode and stayed in the shade. Now I can start wondering about Tuesday with its 100 plus temps. Hopefully the next few days will be lower temp and humidity.

  19. On my way into the office, listening to SiriusXM I heard a DJ say that it was “over 100 here in New York City today”.

    Central Park hit 88 before thunderstorms moved in and LaGuardia got to 90. Max heat index was 94 at the Park and 97 at LaGarbage.

        1. I was just thinking that sounds like a place you’d have been! I guess soon though…

    1. Because now the “heat index” is the temp. Ugh. I’m not even sure if the heat index got over 100 there, or they just read someone’s car thermometer. This was NOT an earth-shattering heat day, sorry.

      1. I remember this so assume (yep I know what Felix said) we discussed it here. I thought I remembered thinking it a good idea so looked it up. My AI now best friend says

        “The National Weather Service (NWS) has lowered the heat index thresholds for heat advisories and warnings to improve public safety during heat waves. This change is motivated by research showing that the previous thresholds were not adequately protective, particularly for vulnerable populations and in areas unaccustomed to high heat. By lowering the thresholds, the NWS aims to provide earlier warnings and encourage more proactive measures to mitigate the health risks associated with extreme heat.

        Here’s a more detailed explanation:
        Lowering thresholds for earlier warnings:
        The NWS has lowered the heat index values that trigger heat advisories and warnings. This means that alerts will be issued sooner, allowing individuals and communities more time to prepare for and respond to dangerous heat conditions.

        The primary goal of this change is to reduce heat-related illnesses and fatalities by providing more timely and accurate warnings. By lowering the thresholds, the NWS hopes to encourage individuals to take necessary precautions, such as staying hydrated, limiting strenuous activity, and seeking shade or air conditioning. ”

  20. This is probably a good time to remind people (and I’ll bring it up again) that about a decade ago, the NWS LOWERED what is considered the low limit for a heat advisory. It used to be 100F heat index. For the last decade it’s 95F. By default, that means you’ll see many more of them issued than you used to.

    Move the goalposts – change the results.

  21. Watching the WooSox who are up 5-2 over Buffalo.

    The Red Sox play the Giants tomorrow night. The Giants picked up a new player. His name is Devers.

  22. High temp range for the WHW forecast area today…

    Coolest high: 69 at Nantucket.
    Warmest high: 94 at Norwood.

  23. The front did not make it through until nearly dawn – it was way back there last night and took many hours to make the trip.

    Dew point falling now.

    Also, new post!

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