DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)
A few forecast tweaks in this update to an otherwise similar outlook to yesterday’s. We start the day under a blanket of stratus clouds for much of the region which will hold back the temperature rise and take a degree or two off the potential high temps for the day, but we’re still in for a fairly hot and humid day, the first real widespread one for the region this late spring. After that cloud layer thins and dissipates, we’ll have a fair amount of sun, but some high cloud areas from upstream thunderstorms can move in later. For the WHW, the timing of an approaching cold front is late to optimize the opportunity for widespread big thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be quite unstable and a fairly healthy low for this time of year will be passing to our north, but timing / frontal position dictates that the most likely area for a solid or broken line of storms to form will be over NY State moving into VT and western MA / CT late-day / early evening. A few advanced isolated to scattered storms can occur ahead of this, but coverage would be less, into western portions of the WHW region (around the CT River Valley). I suspect whatever is left of the line will make its way in broken and weakening fashion across the rest of the region during the mid to late evening hours. A few of the storms can last longer (stronger cells that find a way to survive – outflow boundary regeneration, interaction with other boundaries, etc – which are things we can only now-cast by watching radar). Once the cold front moves through the region a couple hours either side of midnight west to east, the storm threat will come to an end, and a drier air mass will arrive. A tweak to this forecast update regarding Friday is to remove the shower and thunderstorm chance – the reason being the most unstable area in response to the disturbance passing by will be well to the west and southwest and I don’t expect more than fair weather clouds, a gusty breezy, drier air, but still warm temps. We welcome summer official with the occurrence of the solstice at 10:41p.m. on Friday. Looking into the weekend, you’ve heard talk of a complex of thunderstorms forming Friday night in the upper Plains / Midwest. I still think this will be the case. But first, we may see some debris cloudiness in the area from a small complex ahead of that one passing through our sky early Saturday, a day that otherwise looks dry and pleasantly warm. It’s that night that clouds arrive from the larger complex of storms as it exits the Great Lakes and moves through Upstate NY, adjacent southern Canada and into northwestern New England. In decaying state, it can send some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds through our region sometime in the 3:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. time window of Sunday – timing and details to be tweaked further on this. The remainder of Sunday would be similar to Friday – breezy, dry, and warm. Looking ahead to Monday, it heats up again with a 90+ high temp potential. However a weak pressure gradient leaves the coast vulnerable to sea breezes, so it may be a “not-so-fast” kind of deal on the heat for the coast. Will watch that as it’s still several days away.
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun through mid morning. Sun dominant late morning to mid afternoon. Cloud/sun mix later on. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible southwestern NH, central MA, and adjacent CT late afternoon / early evening. Highs 80-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms west to east this evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+ evening, falling to 50s overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.
FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 57-64,. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds early with a shower or thunderstorm possible Boston area southward, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 86-93, but can be cooler along the coastline. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)
Brief heat spike expected June 24 but again watch for a cooler coast. Back-door front should cool the region down, maybe with a passing shower or thunderstorm briefly otherwise mostly fair weather middle of next week. Isolated showers / storms as warmer air tries to return later next week.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)
General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.
Thanks TK !
Excellent discussion !
Good morning and thank you TK.
73 here with dp 67 after low of only 69.
Plenty of Sunshine here. Nothing to retard the temperature rise.
How high will it go?
Only 1 AC installed. The other 2 are going in tomorrow and/or Saturday as we can’t wait any longer. Just looks to be too hot/humid starting Sunday for at least a few days. Can’t survive
that with 1 AC. We can survive 1 day with 1 AC, but not 3+ days.
I actually ordered a stair climbing dolly to move ACs from attic downstairs. Supposed to arrive today. They are just getting too heavy for me at my age.
Good luck JPD. Sounds like a wise decision
thank you.
Wish I lived closer old salty as I’d help you in a second .
Thanks, TK.
Thanks TK
SPC Outlook for today. An update will come around 8:50 this morning.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1750312548
Wind Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_WIND.png?1750312809
Hail Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_HAIL.png?1750312816
Tornado Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_TORN.png?1750312634
No changes with latest update or none that I could notice. 🙂
The sunshine that was previously here is now gone.
Thank you, TK
Up to 73 from 66. 71 DP. Sill some blue sky south with filtered sun to the east
Sun back out here.
Wordle..
got today’s word in 5 guesses. just can’r seem to get it going.
For kicks, here are my first 9 days stats
https://ibb.co/Zz4zhtRF
I’m testing pasting my results here:
Wordle 1,461 3/6*
⬛⬛⬛
⬛
Ugh, WordPress is not image-friendly!
My first guess today worked well for me and I got it in 3.
Awesome. 4/6 for me.
JPD if you are getting Wordle more than not, I think you are definitely getting it going. You’re doing great.
Wordle 1,461 4/6
⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜⬜
⬜
Is that what you expected? Doesn’t look right to me.
What is the 3/6? Did you get today’s word in 3? if so, that would be AWESOME! It was a tricky word.
Here’s what I wanted to paste:
https://ibb.co/1Y2PmqTn
Just did the same. Really nice 3 SClarke
https://ibb.co/1tWhyHWc
So does this mean you have played over 1400 games and you averaged getting the word in 3 guesses? That is phenomenal!!!
Oh no! The 1461 is the number of today’s game. Tomorrow will be 1462.
The 3/6 means that I got it in 3 guesses today.
Oh, ok. Thanks
Today’s in 3 guesses is very good, I think anyway.
Once again, I lost guesses as my 1st word yielded nothing.
One last comment. Oddly either first or second words yielding nothing seems much more common recently for everyone I follow. I had one letter in my first word and zero in my second a couple of nights ago.
JPD. This is where you find your overall stats. I’ve played almost from day one but switched from my iPad to phone so lost total games played count.
https://ibb.co/35xC7PZG
I tried that also. I’m not sure why the copy and paste results work elsewhere but not here.
It looks like the only squares that appear in WordPress are the ones that were misses. In your case it was 3 in the first guess, 3 in the second and 1 in the third.
I wish this worked.
Good catch. And I wish it worked also. I, along with a few others, post daily on FB. It’s pie simple
76, dp 69
No changes with the latest update that came out about 10 minutes ago.
My prediction Severe Thunderstorm Watch Springfield area west.
🙂 yup agree with update. Watch may be from MA/NY border West and SW We shall see.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2025061912&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2025061912&fh=12&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z HRRR simulations for 22z and 00z this evening, I believe.
Chances of anything in the coastal plain, Slim to none and slim just slipped out of town.
lol 🙂 🙂 🙂
This is not a big severe weather event but a couple towns in western areas of SNE could get a strong to severe thunderstorm. Heavy rain, lightning, strong wind gusts would be the main threats.
Warm night coming tonight, may not get below 70F in central and eastern MA
But, lowering humidity and modest cold air advection tomorrow will hold temps to a 10-14F rise from morning low temps and with a nice breeze a dps falling into the 50s, I think tomorrow has top 10 day potential for comfortable summer weather.
Only thing that might put a damper on tomorrow would be the wind.
True, but it can be a positive to ventilate drier air into houses, etc and I think it will feel refreshing.
How True!!! Didn’t go there.
I am hoping next week will be the worst of the heat for the summer. I expect heat alerts for early next week.
I am truly worried about the upcoming heat.
Not likely as severe or long lasting as most media will have you thinking.
Let us hope so.
But 3 days of 90-93 will do it for us.
Small plane crash in Beverly. 1 dead.
That’s awful! This is the flight details.
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/N9573M/history/20250619/1230Z/KBVY/4B6
https://www.aircraft.com/aircraft/227451395/n9573m-1967-mooney-m20f
Thanks TK.
78, dp 70
12Z NAM still only projected 86 for Boston.
Could it be right?
79 here now.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061912&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Up to 80, dp 71
79F here. Soupy, but NOT hot.
82, dp 72 the YUCK is BUILDING!!!
1/2 hour to noon and still only 82, not sure 90 is in the cards and that is a good thing as far as I am concerned. But we’ll see how the temperature responds to the mid-day and early afternoon high sun angle.
As of 11AM 81 temperature 77 for the dewpoint. The highest dewpoint I have every experienced in my life was 81 7 years ago when I was vacationing in Virginia.
STICKORAMA YUCKORAMA
NWS Heat Risk. You could zoom in for SNE. It goes out from now until 6/25.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/
Cool map. Thanks for posting.
83, dp 72
Temp range at noon…
65 Nantucket to 85 Norwood.
What a day of tremendous heat! Unforgettable! 😉
🙂 🙂 🙂
84, dp 73 here
No change from the SPC with the latest update.
3rd update in a row with no changes.
It’s 84F and doesn’t feel terrible outside. Yucky, yes. Awful, absolutely not. Worthy of the nonstop heat warnings? No. And you all know how much I detest heat and humidity.
I can’t stand the hype on TV. Wouldn’t a straightforward, more accurate forecast without hype be better for ratings? Or is it all about the show? I pine for no nonsense news of all kinds. Not just weather, current events, and politics. Sports, too. I hate the overdramatization and soap operas. It makes me watch less, not more TV.
Politics and weather are intertwined now. It is all about ratings
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KOKX/standard
I just headed to the center to pick up some things from a friend. Nws says 89 with 77 dp here. We stood outside and chatted for a bit. I am not complaining cause I have AC but it not only felt uncomfortable but I needed to use my inhaler and systane eye drops when I got home.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1
I definitely agree there’s a valid point of over action by the media.
The heat indices on these 1pm obs are all running 91 – 94F due to the low 70s dew points.
I think the decent breeze is easing a bit, what is a borderline hot, very tropical day with an intense sun near its solstice max.
Overreaction by the media.
It’s media at its best. I never cared to learn weather conditions from other than an actual and local meteorologist
Those thunderstorms feeding up off a very unstable atmosphere.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 9pm for most of the SNE the exception eastern areas of SNE.
Could be good your way, JJ. Are you close to the marine influence or further inland?
I am further inland. Will see what happens.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061912&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z Euro Tuesday temp projections
Observations:
The projected strength of this next ridge hasn’t backed off. It’s maintaining, as the days go by of 594-597 dm which is multiple deviations above avg heights.
I feel like the ridge’s strength peaks Monday, Monday night and is ever so slightly starting to get flattened a bit in southern Canada, but that’s a sign of a disturbance trying to approach, ahead of which would generate some sfc wind at the surface in southern New England.
So, yes, sitting here right now, 126 hrs out, I think 98F at Logan definite has a shot as does a 100F. I think the dps might drop into mid 50s Tuesday afternoon, add down sloping and if the seabreeze is held at bay at Logan, it has a real chance of a new June record.
Thanks TK.
Up to 87F here in Coventry with a 75F dewpoint and a heat index of 97F. It is indeed PUTRID out there as Dave would say.
We are headed to NJ tonight for a softball tournament this weekend. Looks nice tomorrow and near 90 over the weekend down there. As long as the humidity stays lower, it’ll be manageable.
Vicki, a belated Happy Birthday! Hope you enjoyed your day.
And Captain, congrats on your retirement!
BDL now up to 91F as of 2PM.
Good luck with the tournament.
Thank you, Mark. I had a lovely day complete with a surprise visit and flowers from my son late evening
Meanwhile, in Montana….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/rare-june-winter-storm-to-hit-with-12-inches-of-snow/ar-AA1H1f9K?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=b861abe0ba6f490da80ed4523f4848a1&ei=42
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=MSO&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
🙂 🙂 🙂
I think our favorite reporting location has its first 90F day.
90F at one of those 54 min obs, 1:54pm specifically.
90 here,
but I thought they made 90 previously???
Not a severe thunderstorm but I got some gusty winds and loud thunder along with lightning.
A good portion of the area, including here, is under a severe t storm watch.
Sorry if this has already been mentioned
90 dp 72 here.
heat index 97
The thunderstorm which was non severe is now severe warned heading toward Hartford. Some gusty winds, brief heavy rain, lightning, loud thunder when the storm was in my area.
Hi!
Everything on track!
No changes!
Bye (for now)! 😉
92
Not as bad as the media hype. Course I was in low activity mode and stayed in the shade. Now I can start wondering about Tuesday with its 100 plus temps. Hopefully the next few days will be lower temp and humidity.
Ch. 7 has 100F for next Tuesday.
Not happening.
Briefly made 91. We shall see if it spikes back up.
Back to 91 with dp 73. Heat Index 100
On my way into the office, listening to SiriusXM I heard a DJ say that it was “over 100 here in New York City today”.
Central Park hit 88 before thunderstorms moved in and LaGuardia got to 90. Max heat index was 94 at the Park and 97 at LaGarbage.
May be inside Ungaro Coal Fired Pizza Cafe.
I think I just figured out where I’m having a meal when we head down to NYC for a weekend in late August.
I was just thinking that sounds like a place you’d have been! I guess soon though…
I got it from a list of top 10 pizzerias in NYC, so I think you’ll enjoy it!
funny
Because now the “heat index” is the temp. Ugh. I’m not even sure if the heat index got over 100 there, or they just read someone’s car thermometer. This was NOT an earth-shattering heat day, sorry.
I remember this so assume (yep I know what Felix said) we discussed it here. I thought I remembered thinking it a good idea so looked it up. My AI now best friend says
“The National Weather Service (NWS) has lowered the heat index thresholds for heat advisories and warnings to improve public safety during heat waves. This change is motivated by research showing that the previous thresholds were not adequately protective, particularly for vulnerable populations and in areas unaccustomed to high heat. By lowering the thresholds, the NWS aims to provide earlier warnings and encourage more proactive measures to mitigate the health risks associated with extreme heat.
Here’s a more detailed explanation:
Lowering thresholds for earlier warnings:
The NWS has lowered the heat index values that trigger heat advisories and warnings. This means that alerts will be issued sooner, allowing individuals and communities more time to prepare for and respond to dangerous heat conditions.
The primary goal of this change is to reduce heat-related illnesses and fatalities by providing more timely and accurate warnings. By lowering the thresholds, the NWS hopes to encourage individuals to take necessary precautions, such as staying hydrated, limiting strenuous activity, and seeking shade or air conditioning. ”
Now to see if I can find out if it made a difference
dropped to 89 and dp down to 70.
Not much T-storm activity.
will it increase?
Not really. It’s going along as I expected it to.
The cold front hasn’t even reached Buffalo yet.
Sluggish!
This is probably a good time to remind people (and I’ll bring it up again) that about a decade ago, the NWS LOWERED what is considered the low limit for a heat advisory. It used to be 100F heat index. For the last decade it’s 95F. By default, that means you’ll see many more of them issued than you used to.
Move the goalposts – change the results.
Above comment was meant to post here.
Sorry
Erick went from a Cat 3 to a tropical storm after reaching land. This area has been a little bit of a hotbed for tropical development.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7
Thank you for these updates Longshot.
Most welcome. 🙂
Watching the WooSox who are up 5-2 over Buffalo.
The Red Sox play the Giants tomorrow night. The Giants picked up a new player. His name is Devers.
Hmmm name sounds familiar to me.
Worked in Halifax today & it was a warm one for a big job
Thanks Tk
High temp range for the WHW forecast area today…
Coolest high: 69 at Nantucket.
Warmest high: 94 at Norwood.
Still 76 with 71 DP at 10:40
At 73F
The front did not make it through until nearly dawn – it was way back there last night and took many hours to make the trip.
Dew point falling now.
Also, new post!