Tuesday July 1 2025 Forecast (7:53AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

July opens with an unsettled, warm, and humid day today. Abundant cloud cover starts the day as a disturbance moves by. There are showers most concentrated closer to the South Coast, with offshore thunderstorms, otherwise most of the activity with the disturbance is passing by to our north. Low clouds and fog exist under the disturbance-related cloud deck especially toward the South Coast. The key to today’s forecast, in terms of shower and thunderstorm chances for this afternoon and evening: How much clearing out occurs, which would result in a more unstable atmosphere and better chance for showers and storms. These will also be triggered by a slow-moving cold front entering our region late today and this evening. This front’s progress looks even slower to me than it did just 24 hours ago. Even without the help of much sun, there will still be a shower and thunderstorm threat, and the slow-moving boundary can allow some areas to see several hours of heavier rainfall, leading to local flooding. Severe weather (hail, wind damage) would become more likely if we have more sun leading up to these, so this will be something to watch during the day. The activity continues into tonight as it slowly presses to the southeast. Wednesday was once a “clean” forecast from me in terms of rain chances, but I can no longer rule out the redevelopment of at least a few showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary that will have barely made it southeast of the I-95 corridor by morning, and may take all day to finally move offshore. Areas to the west and north will be dry throughout Wednesday. Thursday’s forecast remains the same – a warm day, with a trough and pool of chilly air aloft swinging through, and while the focus of this is to the north, with the help of a trough we can see showers and thunderstorms develop and move across portions of the WHW forecast area in southern New England during the later afternoon and evening. This feature departs by early Friday, setting up a very nice Independence Day with sun and fair weather clouds, no rain threat, low humidity, and seasonably warm air. High pressure will remain in control with continued fair weather and somewhat warmer conditions for Saturday.

TODAY: Clouds dominant this morning including areas of fog especially south of I-90, along with passing showers also more likely south of I-90. Sunshine at times midday into afternoon, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, may become more numerous later in the day. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point reaches 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls slowly into 60s. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH, but can be gusty around any showers and storms.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine dominant north and west. A sun / cloud mix south and east including the chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms from mid morning through mid afternoon. Highs 81-88. Dew point falls slowly to below 60 from northwest to southeast. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH but can be variable and gusty around any showers and storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs 82-89. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: A shower or thunderstorm possible early, then clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falls below 55. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80–87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Heat and humidity July 6 with fair weather. A frontal boundary moves into the region July 7 with high humidity but a chance of showers / t-storms. Weather from July 8 through 10 to be determined by how long that frontal boundary hangs around. Reliable guidance currently indicates little movement of the boundary – more of a gradual dissipation, with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms into the middle of next week. Temperatures July 7-10 still average a little above normal, skewed more by overnight lows.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

Trend on guidance is to keep that pattern of low pressure and wet weather to the south, high pressure to the north. Today’s indications are a little less high pressure here with additional shower and thunderstorm chances into mid month, and not a lot of influence from Canadian air masses. This is a little inconsistent with previous guidance. Will revisit this next update. Take-away is a somewhat uncertain forecast, leaning toward a few shower and storm chances but no persistent major heat.

96 thoughts on “Tuesday July 1 2025 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. My wife is flying to Boston late this afternoon. Hoping for a quiet time.

  2. God morning and thank you TK.
    We made 87 yesterday at 6:18 PM after the sea breeze quit. 🙂
    71 for an overnight low.

    Currently76 with dp 70

    1. Which is basically nothing. Sure an isolated chance. but basically blah blah blah

      We shall see if that changes with more sunshine than expected.

      Another issue, the main activity is likely to come after most of the sun’s heating…

  12. Another Wordle five for me today. I have always completed within 5-15 minutes after midnight when it comes out. Now more frequently I’m stuck and putting it aside till morning.

      1. Me as well. Got it in 5. When it finally comes it’s like WOW!
        I should have gotten it SOONER!!!

      1. Well, you are clearly the better player. If you don’t mind, how long have you been playing Wordle? curious. Thanks

        1. I’d guess three years or so.

          The site that I used to post my results to has some crazy-good players. Many months I was close to the worst. The winners usually have average scores in the 3.2 – 3.6 range for a month.

          That site has nothing to do with words – it’s about woodworking!

    3. Vicki – A few days ago we talked about the weird words accepted by Letter Boxed. Today I used “nif”! What is that, other than a bunch of acronyms?

      Along the way, I learned that “niff” is British slang for a bad smell.

  14. It is a STICKORAMA SWEATORAMA out there!
    Friday for Independence Day could end up being one of it not the best day for Summer 2025!

  15. Thanks, TK!

    Continued prayers and best wishes for Mom for a speedy recovery!

    Sprinkles here on Canada Day morning.

  17. 00z euro develops a 594 dm ridge for 2 days early next week.

    Develops it further east than the one just after the solstice.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2025070100&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here are the associated 850 mb temps

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2025070100&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here are the projected sfc temps

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025070100&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Some caveats:

    This hasn’t been consistent like the post solstice ridge and the euro does have a weak high in southeast Canada, so opportunity for a cooler solution at the coast per a possible back door front.

    1. The Euro likes the beat and gives it a 98!!!
      That’s hot enough!!!!

      I say NO to that! Say it ain’t so!!!

  19. Off topic non-weather question:

    Why doesn’t Boston have a WNBA franchise?

    That league is expanding.

  20. Thank you TK. Just catching up on the last few blogs and just read about your mom. She is in my prayers for a full recovery.

  21. For the Wordlers on here, it took me four today in approximately 21 seconds. Should have done it in 3. 🙂

  23. A real treat when you get those dew points in the 40s during the summer months.

    1. Indeed.

      I certainly think July and August will feature cool fronts that drop dps into the 50s from time to time, but I wonder if this July 4th airmass of possible 40s dps will be the driest air for a while.

  24. The 12z ICON goes nuts on temps next Monday. > 100F.

    I’m not going to post it because I’m not crazy about the Icon model, but it is another model following the brief but intense 4th trof, with a signal for a building 500 mb ridge behind it with some decent heat for a couple days.

  25. The GFS builds decent heat in by Sunday.

    Models seem to be struggling with timing at the moment, but a signal seems to be solidifying of an amazingly comfortable July 4th followed by a fairly quick warmup and a big one at that.

  26. Taking time headed out today.

    Yesterday was a top 10 summer day up here by old orchard beach.

    Just about 100% sun, low 80s at the campground, probably in the mid-upper 70s at Pine Beach. That water was chilly, but not ice cold.

    Today, it feels like a warm, wet cloth. Thankfully, the camper has AC. 🙂

  27. GFS also in on next Monday.

    Well, we’ll have to see what the GDPS and Euro have.

    Perhaps next Monday, we’ll get to see what feels worse, 94F with a 72F DP or 102F with a 63F DP.

    Early next week’s ridge is more of a western Atlantic ridge, so I’d expect high humidity.

  30. Any update on storm potential today? Sun has been in and out here. Is dew point still scheduled to drop tonight? Thanks.

    1. We’ll start to see things fire up in the next few hours. I think it’s going to take the form of a short line or broken line … NE-SW orientation, somewhere in central to northeastern MA.

      Convective axis will very, very slowly shift southeastward with time. The process is going to carry into tonight with showers and storms shifting to the south and east.

      The process is likely to be so slow, that the boundary will be around to fire up a few more tomorrow morning to mid afternoon in southeastern MA, RI, and CT. This was a change from the previous outlook.

  31. Went out for a run around 530/6am. It wasn’t too warm but the humidity was brutal. I was sweating in no time. Feels like I wandered into a swamp.

    1. My take at the moment …

      It’s a low confidence forecast period, but I am so fed up with the heatwave hype. It shows up on one model, one run (that’s all it takes) and the media goes nuts. The obsession with heat is out of control – seriously. I could find endless statistics to accurately describe this summer so far as nothing much out of the ordinary. Yes, some heat. Yes, some cool. Yes some snow. There have been anomalies – like EVERY year. Did they mention that during the 2 hottest days in the Northeast last week, that the average temperature for the entire Lower 48 was actually 2 deg F BELOW normal? Nope, of course not. That would be a meaningless stat maybe to someone sweltering in 102 degree heat in Boston, but it’s not a meaningless stat at ALL. Yet such things are just ignored because they are not exciting enough. At least they are going on the actual record. You wanna see some impressive heat coverage, check back to late June and July of 1988, where the % of the country over 90 was far greater than what we’ve seen so far this summer. Hey, just reporting the facts, but what do I know. 😉

      I’ve seen some inconsistency in guidance – which I pointed out on my summary in the DAYS 11-15 today. Yesterday there was a distinctive leaning for dry (not hot) here. Today the leaning was for humid and showery (not hot) here. So which is it? It’s hard to say. That could be the model(s) trying to figure out a transitional pattern and struggling. But around (or just after) mid month, one could make a case for NW flow, variable temps, and additional MCS systems impacting the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. I’ll be eyeing this…

      1. From a former coworker of myself and TK who runs his own long-range forecasting business now:

        “CFS V2, ECM, Graph Cast, and AIFS 16-30-day forecasts are consistently too warm during the past 30 days across most of the Great Plains, the Midwest U.S., and into the Northeast U.S. Corridor. CFS V2 is much too warm across Canada while other models show mixed results in Canada except Graph Cast which is too cool. On average, 16-30-day forecasts during the past 30 days are too cool in California. The CFS V2/ECM forecast error is explained by the unusual amplitude during the past 30 days of cool low pressure centered on the Great Lakes and across the polar region from Greenland to Alaska while a strong ridge was present on the West Coast. Temperature forecasts are unable to predict the amplitude of these features in 16-30 days causing the bias. AI model error cannot be accounted for by the dynamic physics of the prevailing atmospheric pattern. Although certainly not perfect, the ECM forecast has the edge as calendar summer is about to begin.”

        TL/DR version – the models are too warm in the longer range, and can’t seem to handle the persistent troughs in the Great Lakes.

  34. Couple of tstorm warned areas on NY/Ma border. Maybe a line south of that could reach you, JimmyJames.

  35. I am noticing a line forming in the Hudson River valley. Will see if it misses me north or I get in on the action.

  36. Thanks, TK.

    It’s awful outside. I had to work in a friend’s community garden for 2 hours. I’m now nauseated and groggy. It’s kind of unbearable. Relentless humidity, the sun baking us all. Not fun to be outdoors.

    I envy those who can handle it. I wish I could. I do try. But I can’t.

    Even 40s and rain – certainly not my favorite weather type – beats this crap in my book.

    1. Hmmm baswed on that radar, it seems to me that sever thunderstorm watch should be extended Northeastward or a new watch box issued. Those storms look pretty intense to me.

      1. I had not put my deck umbrella up till yesterday. As I don’t leave up with storms/wind, I just pulled it down. It probably will jinx me getting anything

  39. My wife and I have watched the 1st 3 episodes of PATIENCE
    on PBS. OUTSTANDING show!! It airs Sunday at 8PM, but is available on DEMAND starting the Next Monday.

    Very well done. It’s about an Autistic women working in the records area of a police department and she ends up helping solve cases.

    Well worth a look.

  43. Just had quite the show from the 15th floor of the Gold Building in Downtown Hartford. Lots of cloud to ground lightning strikes and some very close.

  47. This was the most cloud to ground lightning I’ve seen in several years. There were some strikes very close to my house, the bolt and instant shotgun kind. Secondary was the torrential rain. 1.51” in the gauge.

    1. Wow. That’s three times rain that we got. Tons and tons of lightning. My grandson has been following it on my lightning tracker

      Quiet here now. Some fell apart. As it was over us

  48. The bring is just south of us toward uxbridge and Mendon. But it is absolutely wild here. Up to 0.80 and constant thunder and lightning

  50. The wildfires in central Canada are back after a respite.

    Last of the visible, so we’ll take a look tomorrow, but several ventilated a lot late this afternoon into the eveningz

  52. I had to laugh when I woke up on the first day of my mini vacation and it was raining. However my boys and I made it to the north fork of Long Island in Riverhead and got our round of golf in before the downpours resumed at 6pm and it looks like rain will subside by our tee of tomorrow at 10:30 so no complaints anymore from me. Go Summer 25! You rock!

  53. 0.90” in the rain gauge here in Coventry from tonight’s activity. It was actually well needed as areas of the lawn and some of the hydrangeas outside were starting to show some signs of stress with the recent hot dry weather.

    1. I’d noticed water area quite low here again also. My DIL said the Blackstone river and canal that they abut need rain before all fish die again. Our final number was 1.09

  54. June was a dry month. Media didn’t mention it much because they were fixated on “rainy weekends”. This is where the real story gets lost. Some of the mets sneaked it into their broadcasts, but I’m sure they were not told by their news directors to mention it, but instead try to find raindrops on weekends to talk about again. 😉

  56. Another great forecast today TK!!

    Still (mostly lurking) but read every day since BZ!

    DOH!!!

Comments are closed.