Wednesday January 14 2026 Forecast (7:32AM)

109 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

High pressure offshore and a cold front approaching from the west combine to bring mild weather today, but with lots of clouds and perhaps a touch of light rain – though this will be spotty, almost non-existent, and the highest chance is tonight as the front starts to move through. Thursday is a transition day as the high temperature occurs in the morning followed by a decline during the day behind the front, with maybe a few snow showers sneaking in as it gets colder, otherwise it starts to clear out later in the day. Previous ideas of an upper low causing snow showers on Friday are basically abandoned in favor of just cold, dry weather. Things are on the move a little more quickly than previously expected, and the next trough and frontal system will move through the region later Saturday, but cause lots of clouds during the day which thicken up for a period of rain / mix late day or at night. This system heads offshore. Guidance shows a low forming on the front and the trend has been for this system to make a close pass, at which time it would be cold enough to support a period of snow Sunday. I do think the bulk of the system will remain offshore, however, but I’ll keep an eye on it as we head toward the weekend.

TODAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Spotty light rain possible mainly late-day. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of mix to snow showers morning, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-47 early, then falling into the 30s. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry. Lows 16-23. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain / mix potential. Temperatures steady or rise slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of mix / snow showers early. Chance of snow / mix afternoon Cape Cod. Temperatures fall into 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Generally chilly and dry weather early to middle of next week. Watch for potential snow / mix end of period, but timing and set-up of potential system is uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

This period of time features colder weather and a greater potential for an event or two with mixed and/or frozen precipitation.

109 thoughts on “Wednesday January 14 2026 Forecast (7:32AM)”

      1. Thanks !

        I had the 5th letter in the right spot and one other letter in the wrong spot after guess #1

        I thought, well, I have a word in mind that has those 2 letters and ended with that specific letter. Went for it and luckily, it matched.

        1. That’s the way to do it! I was hopelessly lost.
          Had 1 letter in position and one out of position on guess 1. Guesses 2,3 and 4 yielded no additional information, except letters not in the word. Pulled it off with guess 5.

          1. Awesome 2 Tom and good to get it JPD. I feel a fail coming. After 5 guesses with three letters, two in correct position, I’m still hopelessly lost

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    40 here

    Ocean: 42

    18z gfs whopper of snow storm GONE on 0z and 6z. Thanks for the tease gfs.

    Wordle: 5
    Was on my way to a fail, but managed to pull it off.

      1. I don’t feel so badly now. Welcome to the 5 car. I have coffee ready and something stronger if need be. 🙂

      1. Pretty PATHETIC isn’t it!!!

        Not for nothing, but here in JP, we got in an OE band in a system last year and picked up 7 to 7 1/2 inches. NWS didn’t want to believe it, BUT it was SO!!! My ruler doesn’t lie!!!
        Neither does Hadi’s.

        1. 100% we did. Ridiculous they even say otherwise. And honestly the year before we even had one that was over.

  6. Wordle. I didn’t fail after all but have a pHEW 6. I am hoping to sneak up to the 5 car for those refreshments

      1. IF ONLY!!!!!! I briefly got excited, BUT had to remind myself that it was the piece of shit GFS! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. Good to hear from JpDave! I know he’s ok after seeing the 12z GFS.

    Mark, JimmyJames, Hadi, Joshua ….. all good? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  16. If I was a gambler, I’ll gamble that the social media pages go nuts on an operational run outside day 4 from the model that has the poorest score out of all major global models and virtually no ensemble support. 😉

  17. Thanks, TK!

    NFL playoffs (NWS) forecasts:

    Denver: Saturday Sunny, with a high near 50.

    Seattle: Saturday Night Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 37.

    Foxboro: Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Chicago: Sunday Night A chance of snow showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.

  19. Comparing 12Z GFS 500 mb with 12Z Euro 500 mb and so far out through hour 90 they look virtually the same.

    What this translate to for the potential storm I know not yet.

    We shall see.

    1. Ok at hour 96 the Euro 500 MB is beginning to look somewhat flatter than the GFS. My gut says this translates to a weaker system developing and likely passing off shore or more off shore than not. Interesting watching this….

  21. The Euro does, however, have a several hour period of light snow
    likely during Pats Game on Sunday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026011412&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026011412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026011412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    May even end as some rain

  22. I am looking at that 500mb vorticity maps the difference between the EURO & GFS happens around hour 96 with the tilt and some other minor differences with other features I believe that makes the euro flatter and out to sea. GFS tilts that trough after hour 96 with a bit more interaction with what is behind it over the Lakes/Ohio Valley when the EURO has it more seperated with little to no interaction. Gonna be fun tracking these differences but I would lean EURO/UKMET at the moment over the GFS.. Regardless I think a more stormy pattern is setting up and I think February will be rather fun for you all to enjoy while I am in the sweltering 100 degree dry heat of Australia with bushfires.

  23. I was commenting near the end of the blog last night after seeing the 0z guidance that we needed to watch that Sun-Mon system as the models seemed to be trending back towards an early development of the system and a track closer to the coast. Being its still a 4-5 day threat, plenty of time for things to change between now and then.

    I would not at all be surprised if SNE gets into a period of lighter snow Sunday into Monday. But watch the larger storm happen as we will be up in northern VT skiing for the 3 day weekend!

    I did get a good laugh out of the 12z GFS. Had that momentary tingle and burst of excitement, then it quickly dissipated when my rationale brain took over and I reaffirmed it was the GFS.

      1. The members that are very few and “in the ballpark” of the standalone operational run are usually quite in error.

        1. That’s the Canadian ensembles not EPS. And they are all pretty darn weak.

          EPS is well offshore.

      3. I meant more strength-wise….GFS op has the low down to 969mb! Nothing close to that on the ensembles. But yes a few of the ensemble runs are close to the coast and would deliver accumulating snow. Nothing close to two feet though…

    1. #RealMeteorology, not just reacting to one operational run of the model that’s in last place, by quite a bit, in performance.

      I just don’t get how so many people out there will literally bite the hook with the rancid bait on it. It’s comical.

      1. We pretty much know NOTHING will happen, but we must look just the same on the hope that something changes.

        1. It may not be “nothing” but it’s highly unlikely to be that dramatic a “something”.

          1. That is pretty much what I meant by nothing.
            A coating to an inch or 2 is NOTHING in my book.
            Gimmie some REAL SNOW. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  26. I posted some footage of epic snows in Turkey yesterday.

    How about Kamchatka Russia today….

    Weather Monitor
    @WeatherMonitors
    12h

    A powerful cyclone hit the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia this morning, with winds reaching up to 30 m/s. Authorities urged residents to stay indoors.

    https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/2011346069129740302?s=20

    Volcaholic
    @volcaholic1
    Jan 13

    An INSANE amount of snow has been dumped in Kamchatka, Russia

    https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/2011048294026244514?s=20

    1. There were some pretty epic snowstorms in the Middle East and that part of Russia in the 1990s as well.

      I tracked them. 🙂

      It can go nuts there with the right pattern in place.

      1. He’s getting it too. Moscow was also crushed this past week with its heaviest snow since 1970….

        Volcaholic
        @volcaholic1
        21h

        Russia’s Hydrometeorological Centre says the Jan. 9 snowfall ranked among the five heaviest in Moscow’s 146 years of weather records.

        The Moscow Mayor’s Office says city services cleared nearly 1 million cubic meters of snow over the weekend. Even for a winter-hardened city, this was an exceptional snow event

        https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/2011211083931857394?s=20

        1. Pretty crazy….

          Electroverse
          @Electroversenet
          19h

          100% of Russia is blanketed in snow.

          From the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Far East to Moscow in the West – all 17.1 million square kilometers of the transcontinental country is currently covered.

          Moscow has logged its heaviest snowfall since 1970 this week. Snow depths exceeded 65 cm (25.6 inches) in parts of the capital, the highest in 56 years.

          Roads, railways, and airports have been disrupted.
          More than one million cubic meters of snow cleared in 24 hours.

          And it’s not over – more is in the forecast.

          https://x.com/Electroversenet/status/2011241860384325832?s=20

  27. Bingo. I nailed it. Social media didn’t learn from the last epic GFS fail and they are already biting on this one. At least that’s predictable without much of any error potential. 😉

    I was hoping after this most recent one, that at least some of them would learn. Nope!

    Anyway, on we go here, in the name of science!

    1. I don’t go on Social Media, just here. I haven’t been on FB in 6 months or more. Share one of these as I’d love to see it.
      Post ALL of the necessary caveats!!! Thanks

      1. But. But. But. I have done a really good job blocking the social media nonsense so I don’t have room in my life for it. Maybe share a couple and I’ll know to skip ?????

        1. Oh brother. I thought you may have posted the “bread & milk” guy. Now HE’S funny!!!
          😀

    1. I had no mobile internet between work’s WiFi and home’s WiFi, so it impacted me.

  34. 18z GFS still has the Sunday/Monday storm but is weaker and a bit further offshore. A much more reasonable depiction if we are able to get a “hit” out of this. A general 3-6″ with 6″+ into some areas.

      1. We shall see how the 0z runs handle things. Worth watching for sure, but I think our chances aren’t so hot.

  37. Global models that messed up the last event are doing the same thing right in the same time range (day 5 / day 4). The correction should begin tomorrow.

  38. 0z Euro still off shore for Sun/Mon but sideswipes southeastern areas with a bit of snow.

    Multiple snow events on that run though in the long range….

    1. Reflects my discussion for Sunday and beyond on yesterday’s (and today’s) blog post, which is now available!

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