Thursday January 15 2026 Forecast (7:07AM)

134 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

A transition out of mild and back to colder takes place today, but after last night’s light rainfall in the area, today’s temperature drop will take place with mostly dry conditions, just a slight chance of a few lingering raindrops first thing this morning, followed by clouds giving way to more sunshine as the wind picks up and the temperature goes down. A secondary frontal boundary passing by tonight can be responsible for a passing snow shower, even a brief snow squall potentially. This sets up a dry, windy, and cold day Friday. During the weekend (3 days as it includes MLK Jr. Day on Monday) we will be impacted by 3 separate weather systems. Saturday, low pressure passing by to our northwest brings a warm front / cold front combination. While there may be some early-day sun especially in eastern areas, look for a couple periods of rain and snow – rain favoring the coastal plain and snow favoring areas further inland where there can be some minor accumulation. I’ll detail this further on the next blog post tomorrow morning. The second system will bring a swath of snow to Cape Cod and the Islands and perhaps back through the I-95 belt for a few hours on Sunday evening as a fast-moving storm system passes well offshore, heading north northeastward. The third system will be a trough and cold front that can bring a snow shower later Monday, which will be a windy and chilly day.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with spotty light rain except light mix / snow in southwestern NH & central MA. Sun and passing clouds this afternoon. Temperatures start out 37-44 west of I-95 and 40-47 I-95 eastward, falling into the 30s during the day. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH, increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening snow shower or snow squall possible. Lows 15-22. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 20-27 evening followed by a slow rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic light rain eventually mixing with and changing to snow coastal plain, mix to snow inland with accumulation of up to 1 inch (2 inches higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH) by late-day. Highs 32-39 inland and 38-45 coast occurring before midday followed by a gradual temperature fall. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to N from west to east.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly I-95 belt eastward with best chance of up to a few inches accumulation over Cape Cod. Lows 22-30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.

MONDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of late-day or evening snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Dry and cold weather into the middle of next week followed by a mix/snow chance later in the week, depending on the track of approaching low pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

This period of time continues to feature a leaning toward cold weather and a couple of wintry precipitation chances, with it being too far into the future for any details.

134 thoughts on “Thursday January 15 2026 Forecast (7:07AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK.

    You did say last week that we were in for a prolonged thaw and you were 100% right. The ice has all but disappeared on the Charles in Boston.

    Though I’ve muted many of the hyperbolic clickbaiters on social media, it didn’t stop new ones from appearing on Twitter last night declaring a “major snowstorm” on Sunday. It’s getting ridiculous.

    I like winter, but I do NOT like wishcasting.

  4. Thanks TK !

    SSK: I hope things continue to improve for your wife.

    Wordle: 5 I had the middle 3 letters in the right spot after the 3rd guess. I couldn’t see it, so I used the 4th guess to use as many letters as I had remaining and that uncovered 1 more in the right spot, which did the trick.

    Let it snow as much as it can Monday, if the system comes close enough ……….. no school 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. 2nd guess yielded the 1st 3 letters.
      Guesses 3 and 4, valid but nope
      5th got me 1 more letter so I could get it on guess 6. Brutal. Thought I hadcit 4 times!! Nope!!

      1. A word we all know, but definitely not one being thought of when trying to think of it.

        A tough word for sure !!!!!

    2. Thanks tom things slowly getting better & trying toast today , need to go very slowly . Possibly Tuesday discharge & that will be two weeks in.

  7. Thank you TK!

    SSK – prayers for continued improvement for your wife

    Wordle: 3 (thanks to a very lucky 2nd guess)

  10. Wordle in 4 today. On the second guess all I had was one yellow letter, so I was lucky to get it in 4.

    1. Nice job!!! The word just wouldn’t fall for me. I had every word other than the correct word. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. Great wordling everyone.

    4 for me. I tried two new starter words. Nothing with first word but it was one of the times the word just popped in my head. So odd when that happens.

  14. Thank you, TK. Up to 42 from 37 overnight.

    Glad the rain will stop. Officer LaPortas procession from Franklin to Uxbridge is shortly after noon. Such a horribly sad day.

  15. The later in the weekend system has a low floor and a high ceiling. Everything and anything btwn a miss and a clobber are on the table.

    Here’s why, I believe ……

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026011500&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026011500&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    There’s the southern stream energy and its moisture.

    But, the whole key, I believe, is that northern stream energy. It is easily seen as a 1,002 mb low north of International Falls, MN. It can also be seen on the 2nd link as a disturbance north of Minnesota.

    OK, how does that disturbance interact with the trof.

    Because, if it kind of slides south east or east southeast, it probably doesn’t sharpen the trof much and the southern energy slides too far southeast.

    If the northern stream energy slides a little more south-southeast, going further west of the northeast, then it can sharpen the trof and at the least, stream that moisture in here and could even help rapidly intensify an east coast low if they phase.

    Still 90 hrs out and based on where the northern stream energy is coming from, I have to wonder if its in an area that is well sampled yet.

    Maybe the models already have a handle on this.

    But given where the northern stream energy is coming from, there is a room for a possible change in favor of a productive snowfall for New England.

    1. There IS some hope! Thank you for this Tom. Miss posts like this and would love to see more like we used to see all the time when there’s uncertainty in the forecast, even if it’s a long-shot. That’s why we watch and read here. I know the weather has been ho hum and not much to be excited about, but we should be able to talk about the possibilities and even wish for snow!

  18. So far, none of the models have a block buster by any means (save the GFS the other day), however, should the system come closer to the coast, a moderate snow event “could” be in the cards. Of course, this is ONLY if it comes closer to the coast.

    Canadian, UKMET next then the Euro.

    Still watching……

  22. Thanks, TK!

    51 degrees as we approach the noon hour.

    From the other night’s “The Tonight Show”, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck and Jimmy Fallon (“Three Guys From Boston”) read all the names of the cities and towns in Massachusetts:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhC76xAq7oE&t=32s

    It reminded me (and others) of the days of no-school announcements on the radio before the days of automated phone calls and rolling names under the screen of the TV news.

    Growing up in Mansfield, I would always hold my breath when the announcer on WARA radio in Attleboro would get to the middle of the alphabet, hoping he would say “Mansfield” and being so mad when he skipped from “King Philip” to “North Attleboro” without saying “Mansfield!” 🙂

    1. I, too, am so happy to hear of Lorraine’s good news, SSK. Here’s hoping she can come home on Tuesday!

      1. According to my blog, there is an event that can produce up to an inch or two of snow inland Saturday, and a second one that will graze mainly I-95 eastward Sunday evening.

        The map that is shared is only for the first one of those.

  32. Thanks TK! On top of predicting snow totals we should predict how high Phillips number will go. I say we will stop the count at 1,430. Anyone else?

  33. As of 3 p.m., Boston’s a balmy 50 while Pittsfield is 25. Temps drop was a little later than I anticipated, but it’s incoming now!

    We have a lot of below normal temp days in our future during the second half of January.

    CanSIPS winter forecast from many months ago continues to look pretty good.

    1. We made 52 and are ALL the way down to 49 now. Was out in the Noon hour and it was HOT out!!!! Ridiculous!!!!!

      1. I’m not sure I’d term it “hot” or “ridiculous” considering Boston missed its record by a lot. 🙂

        Here are the top 10 warmest January 15th’s for Boston…

        1 .. 66 .. 01/15/1995
        2 .. 65 .. 01/15/1932
        3 .. 63 .. 01/15/1937
        4 .. 56 .. 01/15/1962
        – .. 56 .. 01/15/1921
        6 .. 55 .. 01/15/1951
        7 .. 53 .. 01/15/1989
        8 .. 52 .. 01/15/2020
        – .. 52 .. 01/15/1940
        10 .. 51 .. 01/15/1952 to be replaced by 52 today making a 3-way tie for 8th place.

        Hmm.. only one from this century. Haven’t been a lot of warm January 15th’s in the past 25 years. 😉

        1. I know that. It felt very warm to me and that is all that matters. It was TOASTY!

          I’m just messing with you.

          Let’s say it was disappointingly mild to warm today. 🙂

          1. When I leave work my brother comes outside in his wheelchair with me to say goodbye and on a day like this he’s just in sweatpants and a t-shirt with no jacket. People think he’s crazy but he’s always done this. He used to work outside in his yard before his stroke in short sleeves when many people were in full winter gear. 😉

    1. As you know, I think the 12km NAM belongs in the garbage bin, but on this particular depiction, it does show something very similar to what my discussion describes. It got “lucky” this time. 😉

    1. The AI’s haven’t seen enough “Gulf Wave” or “Miller A” type systems to have “learned” much about these as of yet.

      They should improve on this kind of system in Winter 2026-2027 which is likely to feature a moderate to weak El Nino.

      1. ? I’m not an expert on this but my understanding was the AI/machine learning models were training on ERA5, going back at least 40 years or so.

      1. Indeed it is. Not a monster, but considering what we’ve been through, not too bad either. 🙂

  43. There are too many models bringing snow into Boston For Sunday night to ignore.

    Could the Euro be 100% correct and it stays off shore.
    Certainly, but hard to totally dismiss these other models.

    Will be interesting to see IF the trend continues with the 0Z suite.

    The southern stream energy is pretty robust and we could get a decent event without phasing with Northern Stream, as long as it doesn’t stay off shore. That is the key.

    1. Agree….the RRFS, Canadian model suite, and the AI suite of both the Euro and GFS would deliver accumulating snow for most of us.

      I’m certainly not counting on it, but there is enough evidence not to discount.

  44. Regardless what happens Sunday, it looks like winter’s return is imminent.

    12z Euro is a snow train in the long range with four accumulating snow events on 1/24, 1/26, 1/29, and 1/30. And looks poised for more beyond that.

    12z GFS has two snow events in the long range and a third just missing to the south.

    And the second half of the month looks consistently cold….

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    7h

    Not one, not two, not three, but four or five plunges of polar air will probably hit the United States through the end of the month

    The third, fourth and fifth episodes currently look to bring the most severe cold.

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2011800286214394325?s=20

  45. The Canadian model is notorious for precipitation shields TOO FAR WEST of a low center in this set-up.

    The RRFS has shown early biases of doing the same thing for the southern stream and biases of being to far south for northern stream systems.

  50. Give it up JPD. Yet another lost weekend for snow. 🙂

    I imagine though the fake mets and snow weenies are having a (snow) ball over at the other social media sites. 😉

      1. Don’t apologize for being a snow weenie and never give up hope for snow! We are all Mets at heart, we just don’t have to put out a forecast

      1. Will everyone stop picking on me? I think folks here are taking my comments way too seriously. I certainly wasn’t picking on JPD in the least. I like his map postings. 🙂

        1. No Worries Philip. Never took it as picking on me. 🙂

          But I am not giving up just yet. 🙂

  51. Managed Wordle in 3 today but that followed several days of 4-5-6s.

    We moved my Mom to nursing care this past Tuesday and so far she is managing well. We were able to keep her at home with us for 16 years but needed a more consistent level of care.

    The house is weirdly quiet but she is getting what she needs care-wise at 99.5 yo. Hoping for TK to be right on the end of the month. He so often is. I need a cleansing “moment”….

    2. Also wishing the best for your mom.

      Since I lost my mom in July, after all the initial craziness with what had to be a quickly planned wake & funeral etc, heading through late summer, autumn, and the holiday season, and now into winter, it’s so strange walking down there to a temperature 10 degrees lower than it would be when she was there, and so quiet – no TV, no radio, no singing, no hearing her on the phone with my brother or one of her relatives or old friends. I’m not sure if I’ll ever fully get used to that.

      But there are future plans for that space that bring life and happiness back, and in the mean time my son and I, per her wishes, continue to decorate it for the seasons and holidays as she always did, with our own changes and additions, which she gave her blessing for.

      Sometimes I go down there and turn on her favorite radio station and have a cup of tea. She’s still “there” in many ways.

    3. Hmmmmm my comment disappeared.

      Always nice to see you here. Welcome aboard the wordle train.

      Prayers for your mom and for you and your family. 99❤️. God bless her. Your mom is blessed to have been with you for 16 years. And she is blessed to know you knew she is safer in a skilled nursing facility.

      Hoping for a well deserved cleansing moment for you

    4. It will be the best place for her now.

      My Mom passed away last April. My Dad had taken care of her for 11 years at home, but she too needed that consistent level of care at 89. My Dad 87 still spent every day there from 11-7 for the 7 months she was there.

      I am sure she appreciates you taking care of her for those 16 years, while also balancing everything else you had to do as well.

    2. I think they are geese. Not sure if Canadian or not. I used my Merlin app but it couldn’t come up with a species either

  54. Thanks all for sharing your connections to our story. Wishing best for each where the losses echo. Hope your long weekends are good ones.

  56. I’m just like Acemaster. I miss the good old days of wish casting. It’s what made this blog more fun. However, 50% of the time those storms that once appeared to be a miss actually struck NE. However, times have changed. Rarely, does that occur anymore, so it’s difficult to be optimistic. I’m very much a realist. I call it how I see it. Unfortunately, I don’t see anything to suggest that we in eastern sections see anything meaningful in terms of snow Sunday night. However, I do recognize the signals that are present toward the end of the month. They have my attention even though it’s in the long term. It could ignite excitement around these parts. God willing.

  57. According to JR tonight:

    1. No warm air expected for the rest of the month!

    2. We are now at the midpoint of winter (5.4” to date)!

    1. I agree with JR. There looks to be several impulses of cold air that will influence NE for the latter half of the month. Its during this transition where we have the best at significant snow.

    2. It’s not 100% clear cut solid that there will be “no warm air”. Why is that? We’re going to spend some time near the boundary. All it’s going to take is a low pressure area to cut through the Great Lakes and across northern New England without enough high pressure to the north for cold air damming. “The models” are not going to see this now for so far in advance. We can say that the tendency is going to be for cold, but that doesn’t mean we’re completely excluded from a warm-up.

      In fact, it’s the fairly close proximity of milder air that fuels our winter weather chances heading into later January.

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