DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Updating our three-part unsettled three-day weekend. No huge changes to report on today’s update. Today’s system is a disturbance with its axis of moisture initially over western portions of the region with some light snow. That moves beyond the region then a re-energizing of the boundary sets up a second area of precipitation, mostly snow inland and rain toward the coast, but not too heavy overall. Snow accumulation of up to a few inches can occur inland favoring higher elevations, with more of a rain to mix to snow event and slushy coatings toward the coast with pretty much nothing from this to the south of Boston. A break comes later tonight through midday Sunday before the next wave of low pressure forms and passes south and east of our region Sunday night, with a shield of snow over much of the region, but steadiest in eastern and southeastern areas where up to a few inches of accumulation seem quite likely. This system moves beyond the region by early Monday, a day that we’ll wait for an arctic cold front to pass by from the west later in the day or evening with a snow shower or snow squall possibility. This leads the coldest air mass of early 2026 so far into the region for Tuesday into Wednesday, but by later Wednesday, the advance of milder air brings some clouds and a chance of light snow back to the region.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic light rain eventually mixing with and changing to snow coastal plain, mix to snow inland. Snow accumulation ranging from slushy coatings coastal plain to 1/2 to 2 inches west of I-95 and 2-4 inches I-495 belt from I-90 northward, greatest amounts in higher elevations. Highs 32-39 inland and 38-45 coast occurring before midday followed by a gradual temperature fall. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to N from west to east.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops south to north but will vary in intensity and can also be in the form of mixed precipitation or rain east of I-95. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow of a coating to 2 inches west of I-95 and 2 to 4 inches I-95 belt eastward. Lows 22-30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.
MONDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of late-day or evening snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening, then clear. Lows 10-17. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Light snow potential late-day or night. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Potential for winter weather events increases. Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
Colder than normal with snow/mix chances for the home stretch of the first month of the year.
Thank you, TK. Up to 29 from a 23 low. And s lovely coating of snow. Very unofficially, I’d say less than 0.25.
I struggled with Wordle and ended with a 5.
4 for me. I struggled mightily as well.
Awesome to get it in 4
🙂
At least you got it and in less than 6!!!
Good morni g and thank you TK.
34 here
Ocean; 42
Looks like the RRFSA did not back off at all. Waiting on 12z suite.
Wordle: 4
Thanks TK
Round one has ended and I got about an inch of snow. Round two this afternoon and round three tomorrow. Minor accumulations all three rounds but nice to see snow on the ground.
12Z Hrrr brings Sunday night snow all the way out to Albany!!!
24 hour snow ending 7 am Monday.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011706&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
This appears to be a N&W trend that just never quit.
We have about 0.75163″ of snow so far 🙂
I got Wordle in 3.
Excellent SClarke
Tremendous!!!
Copying this from the previous post for you vicki in case you missed it: Just read some of the comments… vicki as I mentioned before any of these articles written like a forlorn outtake from a romance novel is always AI.
Here’s that “article” saying the same thing about:
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, etc. – and sometimes changing who is saying it – like having it be Larry Bird – https://ibb.co/NnmvSvbM
You can always highlight a snippet – just six or seven words – put it in quotes and search for it and you’ll always find these articles.
The facebook pages make money off shares and interactions. The sites they link to embed tracking cookies that follow your browsing history. I implore people never to share them.
Thank you. I do exactly that for every political post I get. I have a couple of FB friends who ask me to fact check political posts for them. This got by me for a couple of reasons. First and most important, I thought it needed to be said. It is true just not attributable. Second, my mind immediately goes to lies for all political posts. It just doesn’t go to lies on other topics …..yet.
I messaged TK as soon as I figured it out. He says he’d seen the same wording attributed to a few others also.
I’ll repeat. AI may be great but sadly, especially in the current atmosphere, it’s going to be misused. Often badly
Adding. I rarely share. I more typically search for a legit link to a comment and will share that
Thank you TK.
Unfortunately I’m sticking to my 53 inches of snow ❄️ guess for the pvd area.
I went with 56.2” for Boston, which is half of last year’s total (28.1”).
I know what you mean. Big mistake on my part. No way they make it with such a slow start.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: I also struggled and was lucky to get it in 5.
You got it.
I thought I was in for a fail also. Good 5, Sue!
12Z NAM 24 hour snow ending 7AM Monday morning
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011706&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Note: this shows SNOW in the air for the entirety of the Pats game
3KM NAM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011706&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
6Z Euro qpf
https://ibb.co/1f9zdtQ2
that is 0.5 inch for Boston S&E even more to the SE.
Bring it on!!!
12Z HRWFV3 24 hour snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
SSK, I hope Mrs SSK continues to improve and will be home soon
Maybe tomorrow or Monday as it’s a very slow process . They need to do a blood transfusion today but I was assured it’s safe
Sounds as if her medical team is being Thorough and cautious. That is excellent. Prayers continue to you all
Thank you
Me like this, the 12Z RRFSA for 9PM Sunday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026011712&fh=38&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 6
You got it. Tough word today,
I actually thought I had it in 3, but it didn’t like my word. I did, but it didn’t. 🙂 4th guess got it.
Thanks, it was.
Very happy with the 6 and whew, indeed 🙂
Excellent in 4, JpDave !!!!
Thanks, but SClarke is the engineer today coming in with a fantastic 3!!!
Awesome, SClarke !
Good work getting this one, Tom!
12Z HRWNNSSL 24 hour snow ending 6 AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwnssl&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=47&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks, TK!
12Z HRWARW 24 hour snow ending 1AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
This is the model I have been waiting for,,,,
12Z RRFSA 24 hour snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
A bit of a BACK OFF from the 6Z run, but still pretty consistent with most models and TK’s 2-4 inches.
It was never going to be much more than a 1-3, 2-4 inch event, just a matter IF the snow would get in here or not.
Busy with school, so I haven’t really had a ton of time to look thoroughly at op runs.
I did this morning and 1 thing is loud in the long range.
Signal for cold !!!!! Really cold !!!!!! Joshua is happy kind of cold !!!!!
I think I saw a GFS panel showing an overnight where it’s -30F in Montreal and I saw a Euro panel where it was 0F in Boston.
Now -30 is SOMETHING, 0, big deal. 🙂
Sure 0 is cold, but NOTHING we haven’t seen before.
I think we had -10 in JP several years back.
Coldest I have been out in was -25 in Southern VT in January.
I mean I was outside in that.
Wife and I sKiied ALL DAY in -14 degrees at Ragged Mt, Danbury, NH
Skiing in -14F, I hope that meant packed powder conditions 🙂
Ya think? Snow was superb!!! Other than the cold, the conditions were fantastic. Really didn’t even feel the cold.
I would NEVER attempt that now. That was MANY years ago!!!!
ICON 24 hour snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011706&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
RDPS 24 hour snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011706&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Things have certainly jumped back north and west from yesterday.
INDEED they have. Will they stay that way????
Too bad the MEGA BOMB the GFS portrayed several days ago wasn’t materializing. Now, that would have been something.
What is coming up is NOTHING, BUT for this season, a monster!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Indeed 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026011700&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026011700&fh=294&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Certainly COLDEST of this season, IF it verifies.
Tom I wonder if we overachieve on this one like the others we have had all overachieving. Monday am at 5:30 commute will be loads of fun
Slug of moisture almost here. Will it get in here before it
warms too much. Currently 36 here. Hopefully it will come down as snow. If it waits too long, it will RAIN for sure.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Thanks TK.
1,422 ❄️
It will be good to finally see some real snow for the Boston area (eastern MA) as it’s been in a proverbial “snow hole” for much of the season so far.
Coming up on the 4th anniversary. Maybe I’ll celebrate by posting “4 snowflakes” next to the number. 😉
Speaking of…
We just passed the 4th anniversary (January 15) of the Hunga Tonga eruption.
Which is partly responsible for our everlasting snow drought, correct?
Possibly playing a roll.
Fun.
Thanks, TK.
I look forward to the Arctic blasts. Some single digit nights in Boston would be welcome.
As far as snow is concerned, I like that, too. But it looks like another fairly light snow event coming tomorrow. I’ll take it.
12Z GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026011712&fh=39&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
24 hour Kuchera Snow, ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z GDPS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026011712&fh=36&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
24 hour snow ending 1Pm MOnday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
re: Pats Game
It looks like it will be snowing for at least the end part of the game and some models have it snowing the entire game. We shall see tomorrow. We’ll certainly know a lot more prior to game time.
I hope they luck out and the snow holds off until after the game, but I don’t think that will be the case.
I actually hope the snow really gets going during the game! It would greatly favor the Patriots even more imo. 🙂
It doesn’t favor them as much as you think. It favors teams with strong defence. And they are up against the best one in the league.
12Z SI GFS 24 hour qpf, ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
SI = AI
I can’t find an SI but I type that so often when I’m trying to enter AI
Part of NWS discussion from earlier this morning:
A lot will be determined on how much that main shortwave can dig
and result in a backed upper level flow. There are also some timing
differences among the models. While areas of light snow may develop
later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon…appears the bulk of the
steady snow will be late Sunday afternoon and night. Temps also may be
near or above freezing in spots during the day Sunday…so we expect the
bulk of the travel issues to develop later Sunday afternoon and evening.
Currently…our best estimates on snowfall are an inch or two possible
across the interior with 2-4″ possible across parts of RI/eastern MA.
Now if the track ends up on the western edge of the guidance…we
may see 2-4″ of snow well back into the interior with a swath of
3-6″ across RI/SE MA. If the track were to end up on the eastern
side of the guidance…snow accumulations would be little if any
snow across interior southern New England and just an inch or two
across RI/SE MA.
What snow was on the ground has mostly gone poof.
I remember skiing in negative temps. Only once did we have a mountain close due to a combination of strong winds and low temps.
I’ve probably said this before, but I also remember many, many nights when I’d help my dad spread a quilted blanket over the car engine and then close the hood.
Pats are favored by a field goal. There are thoughts out there that snow might favor the Patriots. Color me dubious on that one.
You can be dubious, but against the Texans, who play home games in a stadium with a retractable roof, I do believe it would give the pats an edge. Maybe not a large edge, but an edge just the same. Yes, I know both teams have to play in the same weather, but at least the Patriots practice in the cold and at least some members have played in the snow before. We shall see.
Temperature will be near or “just” above freezing, so the field may or may not get covered. Depends on the intensity. And of course it depends upon whether the snow begins before or during the game. Going to be a FUN day tomorrow!!!!
Thanks TK!
Going to be a lot of very happy snow lovers across SNE next ~3-4 weeks, starting Sunday. The analogies I’ve made a handful of times about this being a 2014-2015 type winter (following last year’s 2013-2014 type pattern) are looking really good right now. And of course, not an exact repeat to that magnitude. TK has been all over the notion that despite some “ghosts” showing up for most of the past couple months, 1/20, or thereabouts, has always been the better opening window for real snow threats.
As for Sunday specifically, I would tack on about 2” to TK’s ranges, which is really not that big of a difference at all (0.2” QPF). But I do think snow will be a meaningful factor in the Pats game. Watch for this system to arrive ahead of schedule (à la the RGEM) with the lack of a blocking high to the north. Also, I could see mixing being a concern certainly on the Cape and maybe even parts of southeast MA. Not a great cold air source with this storm, and if it bumps much further NW, that’s gonna be an issue.
Thanks!
Yeah even tho it’s not really hit on hard in my discussion, I’m worried about the lack of really good cold heading into the Sunday event.
A lighter event in some areas actually means a better chance for snow.
A heavier event and there immediate rain/mix issues.
Thank you WxWatcher!
Always like hearing from you.
I like what you are saying
I find interesting how the precipitation today (snow) refuses to move eastward. It’s literally STUCK just to the east of Worcester.
What’s causing it to remain in place? I don’t get it.
It’s NOT even snowing in Worcester!!!!
Here is the Holy Cross Web Cam
https://www.holycross.edu/visit/webcams
Yes, the short range guidance had it even lifting back north and west of there for a while.
This was modeled very well by the short range guidance and I also talked about it in my discussion.
The axis would remain to the west for quite a while before moving eastward later. Dictated by the upper air flow and it’s happening exactly as expected.
I am seeing some flakes now appearing in Worcester.
Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Some pretty solid green echos with NO RESULTS.
Column should moisten up quickly with those echoes.
12Z UKMET 24 hour snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Not joining the same party as the rest of the models
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Sorry meant to post this one as well
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=36&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Snowing steadily in Worcester now.
2nd what TK noted above re: tomorrow’s event, the temps are marginal during the day, they do cool a bit near/after sunset, so blending in snow depth change maps may be necessary here.
The key to the entire westward expansion of snow shield and slightly higher amounts is the 2nd shortwave.
It doesn’t make the difference between a miss and a major snowfall, obviously, but it makes the difference between a minor graze and a steadier episode of snowfall with light to borderline moderate accumulations.
Are you talking Sunday’s system?
Where is the 2nd shortwave? What level?
I don’t see it at 500 mb?
What am I missing?
thanks
I read WxWatchers 1st paragraph above and this is what came to mind ……
Rampart, this is squad 51
10-4 …….. 51, go ahead
Ah, Rampart, we have 10 weather enthusiasts here, they are passed out, pulse rapid and BP elevated. Unable to wake up. They appear to have been reading a weather blog.
10-4 ……… 51, start an IV with d5w and transport as soon as possible.
10-4 rampart.
I loved this show growing up.
Catch an occasional rerun now and then.
Can’t believe the show is 50-55 years old.
And what show was that? I really don’t know.
Emergency
Not sure I ever watched that show. I suppose I did at some point, just don’t remember it.
I’ll check you tube and see If I recognize anything.
Here is a clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE3W6I32mek
I think I remember those 2 characters.
Btw, the acting is ATROCIOUS!!!!!!!!
I mean really BRUTAL!!! I couldn’t watch that now if you PAID me.
It’s more fun to watch now than it was then. 🙂
I love that show! I watch Emergency every day on MeTV. I remember it as a teen.
Thanks Tom. Your post was hilarious. It describes many of us here! 🙂
Also, they were not as bad acting as you think. 🙂
This was a very popular, long lasting show.
It was on for a good 5-6 years iirc. Emergency! was an offshoot from Adam-12, another great show.
Jack Webb produced those shows.
I loved that show!!!
12Z Euro AI 10:124 hour snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z Euro has system farther N&W and slightly stronger than
0Z run.
Reading what TK said just above, the models must have been missing the 2nd disturbance but have keyed in on it now.
12Z EURO 24 hour 10:1 snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026011712&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks, TK.
Enjoying the anticipation of football and possible snow!
TOTALLY!!!
In the middle of the second round of snow. This snow is a wetter snow with the temperature near 32. First round of snow was a fluffy inch. Roads are snow covered. Round three tomorrow.
Still waiting for round 1. I don’t get to see 2 rounds. 🙂
Not sure I even see round 1 as it may be rain.
Euro at or just above freezing during its 6hr panel of best precip.
Pretty chilly at 850 mb
I trust snow at Logan and 99% of places.
In this case, I’ll be curious to see what happens in easternmost marshfield. Just a bit of a breeze also off the 42F ocean.
I can see where there’s 4” at the old exit 12 at Rte 3, then in town center, there is 2” and by the time your in Brant Rock, it’s a coating of cement snow.
Please let us know. That happens often down there, doesn’t it.
Will do ! 🙂
Half an eye to the games, the other half, out the window 🙂
Green echoes over me, but still NOTHING!! No Snow, No Rain,
NOTHING
By radar I should have nearly moderate precipitation and I have “a few flakes”. Indicates dry air below the precipitation generation area.
It should moisten up fairly quickly. Snowing pretty good In Worcester
https://www.holycross.edu/visit/webcams
Wordle in 4 (west coast time 🙂
Excellent.
JPD there are 2 shortwaves in the main flow for tomorrow’s system. It’s hard to see the first one on the maps but it’s there. That’s the initial burst of precipitation. The 2nd one or “the main shortwave” is the key to the accumulation as the fist one probably won’t do much except produce a burst of inland snow and coastal rain/mix mid to late afternoon.
As long as the end result tomorrow is…SNOW! ❄️
It’s not going to be a big snowstorm though, so make sure you’re not expecting that.
Also, surface temps for this in the I-95 belt and coastal plain are not that cold. This will be a factor.
Surprised with a little over 24 hrs to this event in eastern sections there are no advisories yet. Really speaks to the uncertainty with this event.
I suspect they will be out shortly you would think
That’s exactly right. They will wait until as late as possible to issue it. I can pretty much guarantee you one of the things they are considering is surface temps during the event. Not that cold in eastern sections where if it were colder we’d expect the “heavier” snowfall totals without having to think much about it.
One just popped for Worcester county. Remember noaa and nws continue to be understaffed with the threat of more cuts.
12z Euro, NEXT Sunday.
Logan: low of -2, high of 4F.
Well we know how bad those 2m temp forecasts are, even on a “decent” model, but it goes give you the idea that cold times are ahead.
Yes, but will it be just more WASTED cold???
According to TK, no. But for the record, I also don’t believe in “wasted cold”. I believe in the pattern being whatever it is. Sometimes it’s cold and dry. Sometimes it’s cold and snowy. Sometimes it’s different than that.
Some graupel here now looks to be changing to light snow.
You should see some mixing and maybe some back-and-forth as the atmosphere warms a bit the next few hours.
Thank you. It’s very very light now but watching for more of nature’s entertainment
Today I’m going to root for the Broncos instead of the Bills. Yes, I know we would get a home game for the AFC Championship next Sunday, but Josh Allen scares me more than Denver’s thin air. Besides, the Patriots have proven themselves “road warriors” all season long. They can handle intimidating road crowds. 🙂
It’s gotten so now that Josh Allen no longer needs running backs or receivers as he just waits (or doesn’t) and just takes off for huge yardage. Not to mention, near the goal line, he gets quite a bit of help from his friends, lol (“tush push”). 😉
I know everyone here will totally disagree with me as always when it comes to sports but go ahead. I won’t respond in kind or feel guilty. Go Patriots!!! 🙂
So far you’re the first person I’ve heard want the Broncos to win that game, but I guess we’ll see!
Agree
Don’t you want to see Buffalo & NE go at it for a third time ? I do because I feel the pats can beat them .
Nope! Pats have zero home field advantage (Gillette is a morgue). Josh Allen will beat them
100% agree with you on this. I do NOT want to see Josh Allen. Tough either way for the Pats though (assuming they beat Houston which will not be an easy task).
Ok that makes 2 people. 😉
All is on track today. The axis of precipitation remains west of Boston with snow out there, mixing on the eastern edge of the precipitation area. The atmosphere is slowly, slightly warming, enough that the Boston area should get a burst of rain/mix as the axis finally swings eastward between 4:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. at which time we’ll also see the disturbance helping to generate the precipitation taking off to the northeast and ending it all. So basically just at the time it warms up and moves eastward and would be a rain event for the coastal plain, it ends instead.
Then we wait to see what happens tomorrow.
I just saw a few fleeting flakes!
Steady light snow here. Light Accumulation on cars and a bit on walks and driveways
Re Pats. If they really earn the win, IMHO they are capable of besting any team. naive?? Maybe.
Agree. I believe this is their Super Bowl. Especially since Sam Darnold is hurt for the Seahawks who I think is the best team in the league. If Pats win tomorrow, the path is open for them all the way though it won’t be easy of course.
They are most definitely capable of beating any team.
Any team is if they play the right type of game. 🙂
I would not count out any of the teams that are still in this race. 🙂
Been flaking off and on here since 1:52 PM. 🙂
NO steady snow.
18Z HRRR 24 hour snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
It has backed off a bit from the 12Z
Treating roads here.
Moderate to Heavy NOTHING here.
From a colleague of mine (Mr. Anonymous) regarding tomorrow’s event…
I have paraphrased a bit to clear up a few things for ease of reading.
“I am not impressed overall with this event, despite a storm track further NW.
MOS shows sfc temps 34-38F for much of the event across most of CT, all of RI, eastern MA including Cape Cod. Precip intensity is not nuts (best 6 hour liquid equiv amount on the HRRR is 0.50 inch over Outer Cape Cod), so despite the cold 850 and 925 mb, the boundary layer remains a big problem.
There is zero high pressure to the north. In fact, it is one big trough from Labrador to the Great Lakes. This is rare for a coastal storm, and key for ptype in this event. So the low level cold is limited, and more importantly, there is no solid N or NE surface / boundary layer wind to constantly drain the cold air into SNE during the event.
Just before the precip starts in Boston, the BL wind is 240 degrees at 11 knots and 6 hours later it is 140 degrees at 4 knots. Does that look like a wind direction that is conducive to significant snowfall? Also Boston buoy SST is 42F. Without solid ageostrophic flow and a mechanism to drain low level cold from the N into the heavier precipitation area, again, this is a big problem for precpitation type and ability for snow to accumulate. You need this to offset the relatively mild ocean temps.
The difference between what falls from the sky and what stays on the ground can be quite notable, so I would temper my expectations here. Not a big storm in terms of central pressure, all in all not a big difference or improvement from the nickel and dime events we’ve seen so far this winter for many areas.”
There’s always a Debbie Downer, isn’t there?
We’ll just have to take what we can get. I hope this thing over achieves.
He’s actually just a really good forecaster.
Do any of us know him? Sound a lot like JMA.
I think I might. He may post also on New England storm chasers ?????
Now I wonder if we were better off with the original offshore track? Is this going to be like a “spring” snow event in which snow falls like crazy at 38F but melts immediately on contact?
I don’t think it will ever snow like crazy with this event.
Temperature “may” be closer to 32 than to 38. We shall see.
This is not a set-up for a big snowstorm here. The expectations should have always been tempered.
Quite dark and very light rain here.
Definitely an over producer in Amesbury this afternoon. Cancelled our dinner plans and I’m actually going to have to get out there and shovel.
Still NOTHING here. Was some off and on snow an hour ago, but NOTHING now. Did I say NOTHING? Oh, I meant to say NOTHING.
Pretty much as it was expected to do. HRRR & RRFS both nailed the timing and evolution of this one.
NY as of 1pm has recorded 0.5
Snowfall Standings
NY 8.2
BOS 5.4
The main axis now is shrinking and on the move to the east. Pretty heavy snowfall from I-495 to I-95 belts but the time is limited. As it moves eastward you’ll see more of a snow/rain mix and then the entire thing will be gone an hour or two after sunset.
Quite dark here, but no precip yet that I can tell.
Temp hanging steady at 44.
The further east and southeast one resides, this event is just going to present itself with a rather short-lived burst of rain, mix, snow, or any combo thereof.
Thanks, TK!
RAINING here now with a touch of snow mixed in as I verified that with the windshield test. 🙂
Temperature: 37
18Z NAM exhibiting a bit of a Norlun
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026011718&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
14 hour Kichera snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18Z 3KM NAM 24 hour Kichera snow ending 1PM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I have been waiting for this one.
18Z RRFSA 24 hour Kuchera Snow ending 7AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Nice NWS discussion. They are on board for a general 2-5 inches.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1
Now all we need is to get TK on board. 😉
3 inches reported from Mt. Wachusetts.
That’s a short drive up the street for me. Sneaky moderate snow here today. 4” on the snow board.
Hey Retrac, you’re still alive and kicking!!!! Great to see you here!!! MUST BE SNOW IN THE AIR!!
Thanks for the report. Much appreciated.
And, btw, Visit more often. 🙂
Regarding the 2 short waves. I looked and looked and looked.
This is from the 500mb chart of the 18Z HRRR.
Does this depict the 2 short waves?
https://ibb.co/DNHj3Py
Yes.
Great. Thank you.
Just measured 4 inches of snow between the two rounds of snow. A bit of an overachiever as the forecast called for a coating to an inch.
Excellent!!! At least some got some snow.
Still RAINING here after a touch of off and on light snow.
Now I am waiting for round three tomorrow.
I thought there were only two rounds.
Today and tomorrow.
In terms of weather, I think a general 2 to 5 inches across southern New England with pockets of higher amounts possible if the system digs a big more and travels closer to the coast.
In terms of the Bronco’s vs Bills. I think its a toss up. They both create issues and advantages for the Patriots.
Broncos, disadvantaged, need to play at Mile High, which is a disadvantage, especially since I don’t believe they can fly out early.
Here is the thing the AFC you have three very good defenses in the Texans, Broncos and Patriots, Two of these teams have offenses that are average the Texans and Broncos. Bills have a top 5 ranked offense yet most of it because of Josh Allen being Josh Allen. they have a top tier pass defense but their rush defense is bottom 5. Patriots are a well balance team based on the stats. Patriots defense is going up against the middle of the pack Texas offense while the top tier Pats offense is going against a texans defense. Its going to be snowing, Texans play alot of zone but will likely increase the man vs man due to lower stats for maye, but that opens up running lanes and with the expected weather, could favor the Patriots overall. Probably not as much as some think but the advantage will be there. My main concern is the kickers ability to make long field goals as I think we se alot of those.
Should be a most interesting game.
18Z Icon has backed off some
24 Hour Kuchera Snow ending 1PM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18Z RDPS 24 hour Kuchera snow ending 1PM Monday, about the same as the 12Z run
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026011718&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=rdps
38 and still RAINING here with temp 38
Double 38s, a nice round number
Let’s hope the Patriots do that number tomorrow!
Thank you for verifying my coastal plain rain forecast. 🙂
🙂
Philip my area had two rounds of snow today. First one was early this morning which was a fluffy snow and the second was this afternoon which was a wetter snow.
Lucky you Jimmy! ❄️ 🙂
“Rain” now picking up here. Oh well. 🙁
This is what I forecast for your area.
I know. Always hoping for a surprise. 🙂
You might mix a bit.
You likely start as rain or mixed tomorrow also, so be ready for that.
Two rounds of snow here also. ……early am and early-mid afternoon. Both a solid coating maybe 0.12 inch or a bit better. First , gone. Second, going
We will know better on this blog, but tomorrow during the day not all that much will happen. Most of the snow that does occur takes place tomorrow night. But you know across social media you’ll see everybody asking where the snow is. Here, you’ll know better. 🙂
I m working Monday while she’s still at the Hospital, not looking forward to that commute
We’re at 3.5″ now. It’s beautiful the way it’s stuck on the trees.
Oh wow. How Lovely
18z GFS has backed off ever-so-slightly. Almost unchanged from 12z.
Yes, noticed that.
, but it is the GFS.
Yes, it is the GFS, but the GFS is also “not that bad” inside 72 hours. It’s when you get outside of that its performance takes a nose-dive.
On, point taken.
All in all, still om track.
Bills losing but look TOUGH!
If we win, NOT sure of the poison. Bills here or Play at Denver. I don’t like either choice. I really don’t want us in Dener, so I guess the lesser evil is bills here, but I am scared to death of Josh Allen.
If we could play Denver here, we’d be ok. But that altitude is a killer.
BILLS 10. Broncos 10.
Anybody’s game!
Every time I look it seems like the numbers are going up . A.J. Has 3-5 right up yo Boston & locally higher
Bills are shooting themselves in the foot.
Now they are playing better and have bounced back.
Bills 24, Broncos 23
Did anyone see this on CH 10 the other night? I meant to post it, but forgot. Pete Bouchard was hilarous!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdDZdyC1E8s
I did and I’m laughing even harder this time around.
And now 30/27 with seconds remaining
Wow. What an effort
ALL of the NFL playoff games so far have been great games down to the wire…except for last week’s Pats/Chargers game. I expect tomorrow’s Pats game to be a low scoring rock fight like last week. Broncos winning is the best possible outcome.
Denver is a paper tiger. It took Buffalo five turnovers for them to win by 3……
We win tomorrow, and book your SB flight.
100%
NY final snow total one inch
Snowfall standings
NY 8.7
BOS 5.4
A lot of locals have started to boost snowfall forecasts but I’m not so sure.
00z suite tells a lot as it comes out.
Indeed I’m starting to see a lot of 3-5 + down here
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1
It’s in the mid 30s and 30F to the Canadian border.
Not any real advection of cold air into this system.
I’m not saying rain, but certainly a fairly wet snow and taking a while to accumulate until after sundown tomorrow.
Just wonder if there’s enough QPF left in the last half of the system to get to 3-6 in SE Mass.
I can see what the 00z HRRR and 00z NAM are showing in SE Mass, but given the boundary layer temps, I’d be thinking 2-4 inches of water-logged cement.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2026011800&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Which is kind of being hinted at on the snow depth change map.
Bo Nix. Broken foot. Done
Wow !!
I saw that! Thought it was fake news. Old friend Jarret Stidham will be the starter
Go figure
Bo nix being injured is interesting
I am surprised with that allen and cooks interception
I like the pats chance if they get through the texans. But i think seahawks win it all
Perhaps so but if the Pats get past the Texans who I think has the best D in the NFL despite Seattle having the best “points against”, I’ll take my chances with Drake Maye over the fraudulent Sam Darnold particularly since the Pats D isn’t too shabby either. The stars are aligned.
https://ibb.co/7J9hhf4Z
Snowfall forecasts
Also, channel 7 zoomed in on foxborough lol: https://ibb.co/kg4Px0Vm (he did give a caveat that the bulk of accumulation would fall after the game)
90% of their 2-4 inches will be after the game.
Also thanks for the maps collection!
Love you Dr!
Likewise 🙂
Thank you Dr!
You’re welcome!
Hawks running away with this game
Two very different games today.
Bruins spot Chicago a 2-0 lead then score 5 unanswered goals for a 5-2 win, their 6th straight victory, this one on the road.
Traveling to Dallas Tuesday. That will be a tough game.
Bruins have been a nice story. Their scoring ability has surprised me.
Tried that LocalTV+ app that was mentioned here a few times. What a great app. I didn’t know it was Boston run and a nonprofit. I’ll have to donate to them if I use it enough! Great when the stations apps aren’t working to pull weather maps.
Celtics clobbered the Atlanta Hawks 132-106.
Am I the only Celtics fan here?
I’m a fan of them, but I just don’t watch much basketball.
I find it mind boggling how sometimes NYC snows while Boston rains. I don’t get it.
Yesterday:
NYC = 1.0” snow
BOS = rain
???
We see this phenomenon somewhat often particularly when the center of a storm passes west of 40/70. Remember, NYC would be considered inland from Boston since it’s further west and does not always experience the warm air intrusion from the marine layer like Boston does.
NYC was on the cold side of a boundary. Boston was on the warmer side. Pretty simple.
Temperatures are not always aligned in west-east bands with north to south gradients. Actually they pretty much are never aligned that way. 😉
It’s not as unusual as you think. I’ve actually explained how this happens here on the blog many times.
Weather is not created in a text book. It’s created by the atmosphere, which has countless ways it can be configured.
Look up the snowfall totals for the Blizzard of 1888 for NYC vs. Boston.
Now I remember. NYC received around 22” while Boston mixed with rain and about a foot. Ok I get it. Thanks. 🙂
Issued about a half hour ago. Not sure I am a believer.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=expected&2025020905
With that map, the game would relive the “Snow Bowl” vs. the Raiders (“tuck rule”). 😉
Some aggressive totals out there, little surprised with how temps will be. Intensity needs to be enough.
I will say things look a little more west than I anticipated so I guess there is a shot. But call me a skeptic on 6+ in a larger area. Would love it though!!
3-5 + is on the Table so 6 is a possibility for sure but looking at the projected temps it’s borderline
Unfortunately it will be the heavier snow
No doubt it’s on the table. Let’s see how it shakes out.
I also noticed eastern sections certainly hold onto to snow showers tomorrow that could add and extra inch or so.
Too bad I am missing all the excitement while down in Fort Myers for some golf this weekend. There is a cold weather advisory in effect for wind chills as low as 27. Oh the horror!
I have heard anything below 80 in Florida is called. I remember going down to Florida about 15 years ago in February and it was in the 60s and the people were in heavy winter coats.
I suppose my count (1,423) has an outside shot of ending today. Can Boston reach the 3-6” maximum?
6.0” would do it. ❄️
I don’t know if that higher number will be met but it certainly is a possibility, I’m nervous regarding the temperature
Temp is quite marginal for a while. Eventually ends up cold enough but we’ll see what the timing is on that. Anywhere from the immediate shore to Cape Cod is most vulnerable for mixing at least. But not much precipitation occurs during the day today. Most of this comes tonight.
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