Sunday January 18 2026 Forecast (8:14AM)

206 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

Low pressure will track offshore of our region later today through early Monday and bring a widespread light to moderate snowfall to the region. While I am expecting a widespread 2 to 4 inch accumulation swath, most of which falls between sunset tonight and sunrise Monday, there can be a few amounts that fall shy of 2 inches mainly Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket due to mixing / rain with marginal temperatures there, and some pockets that can exceed 4 inches where a heavier band of snow occurs, as well as some lingering snow or snow showers early Monday on a trough behind the low pressure area as it starts to move away. Once this system is done with us we’ll turn our attention to a trough swinging through from the west Monday evening, and as low pressure travels to our north it will drag and arctic cold front through the region, maybe with an accompanying snow shower or snow squall. Much colder air arrives behind this for Tuesday into early Wednesday along with a gusty wind to make it feel even colder. The next trough and wave of low pressure tries to bring milder air back into the region and in doing so can also bring some light snow to the region later Wednesday and/or part of Thursday. Details of that system and its potential be refined over the next few days, but it currently does not look like a major weather issue for our region.

TODAY: Overcast. A few period of light snow with little accumulation, but can mix with rain east of I-95. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow of 2 to 4 inches but may be mixed with rain Outer Cape Cod / Nantucket with under 2 inches and potential pockets exceeding 4 inches favoring the Boston / Providence corridor. Lows 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early with lingering snow showers eastern MA and southeastern NH, otherwise a sun / cloud mix. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers or snow squalls evening, then clearing overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Another cold air mass arrives late week and a winter weather threat may follow that next weekend, followed by the return of fair weather and reinforced cold air at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Pattern supports colder than normal temps with additional opportunities for winter weather events.

206 thoughts on “Sunday January 18 2026 Forecast (8:14AM)”

  5. Thanks TK.

    Watching live from Foxboro and flakes are flying again. I heard that before sunrise it was snowing a bit down there as well.

    1,423 ❄️

    3. Yes this is the early stuff that was projected by the short range and is not directly related to the passing storm tonight and early Monday.

  7. NWS Snowfall Map update.

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=expected&2025020905

    Many of us have posted this map in the past so I thought it might be important to note that the NWS considers this map to be experimental. I believe the reason is that the map images are generated by experimental scripts instead of the “hard tools” that the NWS would normally use.

  8. So looking across social media the collective public seems to be thinking it will be “snowing heavily” during the Pats game.

    1) It may never snow “heavily” at Foxboro, and if it does, it’ll be sometime tonight. Which brings me to…

    2) Did they forget that the Patriots / Texans game is the FIRST game and kicks off at 3:00 p.m., during most of which it will be just cloudy with nothing falling from the sky for a while and maybe some light snow (even potentially mixed with rain) at times?

    Yeah, sorry, but this is not going to be a “snow game”. They have visions of the “tuck rule” game against the Raiders those many years ago. This is not what it will look like during today’s game.

    1. I watched a TV reporter at Gillette early this AM saying that the snow will give the Patriots a “huge advantage.” About as bad as social media.

      1. It’s not that hard to get the information correct, or at least as close to correct as possible. The effort isn’t there anymore in a lot of places. Sad.

    1. The sky cleared out for a while last night allowing the temp to come back down a bit more.

  11. FWIW, the 12z NAM is down fairly significantly on total snowfall over the run just 6 hours prior.

  13. Thank you, TK. Let’s guys snow and coating again today. I understand we have not had a “big one” but our area and others have seen a number of fun, smaller snows. Very pretty

  14. Good morni g and thank you TK

    34 here

    Ocean 42

    Not feeling the same about this event. Not liking the temperature either. We shall see how it plays out. Agree totally with TK on Pats game NOT being a snow game.

    Wordle: 4
    Almost got away from me altogether.

    1. Oops. Was typing while you posted JPD. That’s three 4s so far. And I agree. It was not an easy 4.

  15. I join Sue today with a Wordle 4. Second day in a row I needed pencil and paper to figure it out. Oddly, the more letters I have in my first two guesses, the more difficult it seems for me.

    1. It was the play to the former patriot where at very first, he’s reeling in the catch, but as they fall to the ground and then tumble over, the defender took it away from him and intercepted it. It’s a question of when the change in possession happened vs being down with possession. It was open to interpretation who has the ball when both players were down by contact.

  18. We know about the Texans defense and we know the Texans are without their best receiver and the Pats D was impressive this week.

    I think special teams, kickoff and punt returns are huge in a potential very low scoring game. Which team gets more, better returns to give their offenses shorter fields to get a 3 here and there?

    And for goodness sakes, in this game, if it’s 4th and 2 on say the Texans 20, take the 3.

    And with all that said, someone will win 45-42, lol

    1. 21-17 Pats. I don’t usually give score predictions, but this jumped out at me this morning. 🙂

      2. Love the prediction.

        I’m 109% rooting for the Patriots, but can see the game going either way.

        I just hope they give themselves gives best chance to win with NO turnovers.

    1. It may very well be ugly, but I can’t see the Pats held to only 10 points. If the Texans go man coverage, Drake will find a way to get it done.

  22. I’m going to send the Patriots to the Super Bowl picking against them this whole time.

    Texans 17-9

    I am seriously concerned about Rhamondre holding onto the ball against this D in inclement weather.

    Go Pats !!!!!!!!!

    1. He’ll be fine! He will NOT fumble today.
      He may score a couple of TDs as well.

      I am MORE concerned about Drake Maye coughing it up.
      What he did last week was UNFORGIVABLE. LUCKILY it didn’t cost us.

  23. Remembering the reminder TK gave about 2m temp projections in the long range, which I did need reminding of :), wow, there continues to be impressive cold weather simulated in the medium and long range !!!!

  27. There was some decorative snow falling this morning as I was clearing the driveway.

    I got Wordle in 3 today.

    1. Yes, I knew that was coming. As per usual, excellent job!

      FWIW, I thought for sure I had it in 3, but it didn’t like my word.
      I just looked at it again. I still like my word for guess 3, but hey, if is not the word Wordle selected, then it doesn’t do much good. 🙂

  28. It continues to snow very nicely here, a rather heavier, but still light snow. Everything is covered, even patchy coverage of streets and sidewalks. Looks very picturesque out there.

  29. It’s snowing lightly here.

    There’s the finest coating on dirt and some shaded regions.

    Now that there’s daylight, I don’t think this light stuff is sticking.

    I laughed looking at the obs a couple hrs ago, with all the light S winds. Don’t know if that is still the case.

    1. Still are. Logan is 34 with SW wind. Any observing station with a wind is S or SW, however, most are calm.

    1. Yes and some of the snow depth map changes I’ve seen are quite lower.

      Even though the low is offshore and the sfc winds will come around, we’re experiencing this event in this current airmass.

      Real waterlogged wet snow with light winds, any area that can get to that 4-5 inch mark might have some very small issues with small branches on trees.

      It should look real pretty tomorrow morning.

    2. I did mention your temp would be above freezing much of the day today, and that will continue to be the expectation.

      Even tonight, it doesn’t go down all that much.

  31. Not gonna do a final score prediction.
    I just want them to win this game, I don’t care if it’s 73-0 or 5-2, or any other score for that matter.

    BTW, a final score of 73-0 has occurred once in pro football history, on December 8 1940 when the Chicago Bears beat the then Washington Redskins by that score. A final score of 5-2 has never occurred in pro football, so if that happened it would be “Scorigami”. However, there has been one 5-3 final in pro football, on October 17 1925 when the Frankford Yellow Jackets bested the New York Giants with a safety breaking a tie from a pair of field goals.

  32. NOTE: This morning’s snowfall is not from the low pressure area, but from the boundary that caused yesterday’s event.

        1. Yes. That is the marginal temps at the surface and boundary layer playing out in real time.

  36. Quick updates here…

    The “morning event” will be winding down in the next 60 to 90 min followed by a long lull with just spotty raindrops & snowflakes here and there but essentially no further snow accumulation across the area during the remaining daylight hours.

    12z short range guidance review shows this general idea on model-forecast snowfall…

    3km NAM: Lower end of a 2-4 inch snowfall.
    HRRR: Higher end of a 2-4 inch snowfall.
    RRFS: General 3-5 inch snowfall.

    You can combine them and come up with 2-5 inches, which is probably what most of the region ends up with, with only the finer details being left to play out over the next 18 hours. In actuality, a cross between Kuchera and Snow Depth Change maps is probably the best way to lean with this, which is why this morning’s update kept yesterday’s numbers the same, with only a little more added description.

    While I’ll be looking at the hourly HRRR updates and every few hour RRFS updates, we’re getting into the time were it’s just do the “nowcasting” thing (still not a huge fan of that term haha).

    I’m still trying to focus on the details of the synoptic snow associated with the actual low pressure passage, which takes places between about sunset today and sunrise tomorrow.

    1. Great little update and makes much sense. THANK YOU.

      No great shakes coming up, but it is something to increase the season’s snow total a bit.

      We’re at “about” 6.5 inches on the season here in JP. Bif woof.
      Would like to get to 10+ after tonight. Here’s hoping.

  37. 12z ICON & 12z GFS both show a 2-4 inch event.

    I lean away from the global guidance this close but if it’s consistent with all the short range, in my eyes it still has some merit.

  39. Just heard from my wife who said it’s been ALL rain In Padanaram Village – even though radar shows snow – I think that area only gets a couple of inches tonight at best

  40. AI version of the GFS at 12z is also “less wet” in terms of total precipitation with a notable eastward shift on the heavier QPF.

      1. As I’ve been advising, keep the expectations tempered with this particular event. It’ll be a light to moderate snowfall, borderline temps, and that’s really about it.

        1. Oh, I understand and understood all along. Just disappointed that the qpfs have dropped, that is all. 🙂

          It will be another nuisance snow event for the season.

  41. For some reason the UKMET model is fascinated with a very heavy snow squall event Monday night with the arctic front.

    After I iron out the last details of this event here I’ll focus more on that frontal passage.

  46. Very light mixture of rain and snow here in Sharon. I’m about a 5k race away from Gillette.

  48. Just saw a reel on Facebook from last night.

    I don’t know if it’s real or not, but it showed a light snow falling in Pensacola, FL.

  49. 33 here. Even the few flurries seem to have stopped. Roads look clear. All else has a solid but light coating. Another 1.12ish

  50. The NWS really, really needs to fix their “range” on the snowfall maps they issue. The bottom of every range is either 0, T, or 1, no matter what the top number is.

    It basically makes it look like one of those memes, 0-8 inches, we don’t know. I’m not sure how this product is actually making it out to the public. It’s really, really bad. Calling it as I see it on this, sorry. It’s bad. The range given on the map itself COMPLETELY ignores the table that sits next to the map! That is not correct. It’s contradictory. And it’s not a typo. This has been showing up since the end of last snow season.

  51. Light southerly wind across most of southeastern New England as of noon. Not really what you want to see as a winter weather event is approaching (assuming you root for the snowy, cold scenario over the milder, mix one).

    1. TK, were you referring to the NWS high-end map, low-end map or their point map. Can you post link please?

        1. That link should work. Now, look at the right of the map, a very nicely shown map key. So, why put accumulation ranges that DO NOT match? It’s an absolutely terrible product right now. I’m very disappointed they issue it like this.

    1. I noticed channel 10 is being particularly aggressive south of Boston. I would not go 6 to 9 inches down there.

  54. Ok so let me break down my dislike for NWS’s current snowfall map scheme and I am going to use the current (late Sunday morning) update for Plymouth MA as an example. As of noontime, we have literally FIVE snowfall forecasts for one location from one source.

    High end snowfall map: 9″
    Expected snowfall point forecast: 3″
    Expected snowfall range forecast based on key: 2-3″
    Expected snowfall range forecast based on labels: 1-4″
    Low end snowfall map: 0.5″

    So, how much snow is expected to fall at Plymouth MA?
    Tell me how that is not going to confuse many people.

    This is an absolutely terrible system of communicating information about one snow event. There should be TWO things here…

    Expected snowfall range (following the key on the map).
    Expected snowfall point forecast.

    That is it.

    2. As I posted above, the NWS acknowledges that some of these maps are experimental in the sense that the map images are generated through experimental scripts. I think they may have also acknowledged accuracy issues … but I am less sure about this.

      The problem with these maps is that 1) they are in the public domain and 2) they are sometimes labelled as “Official.”

      1. Exactly that. If they are experimental, keep them from being public. And why does it need to be experimental? You make an easy to understand forecast map (or the 2 varieties I said) and POST THOSE. How difficult is that to do?! It’s not difficult!

  55. Not a huge fan of the RAP, but that’s come down over the last few runs on its total snowfall.

  60. Going to be interesting to see the weather conditions in Foxboro as steady snow expands in coverage between 5-6. I can see the fourth quarter being impacted by slick turf as temps trickle down and snow coats the field.

  61. Back to wet snow here and I can tell from the way the snow flakes are flying, that the wind has come around to very light northerly.

  62. New NWS snow map (FWIW) scales the snow back ever so slightly. The orange splotches are gone. Some of the 5’s are now 4’s. Some of the 3’s are now 2’s and 1’s.

  64. Eight weeks from today it will be 65 degrees with coastal sea breezes. Also left over snow piles in the large parking lots.

    1. If it’s 65 degrees here in mid March I will do cartwheels in my driveway! Much more likely we’ll still be in the grips of winter

    2. March 15. High of 65. Coastal sea breeze. Leftover snow piles, because we all know it’s never snowed after March 15 before. 😉

      Lock it in! 😉

  65. I’m down here near pvd airport so far half an inch. Starting to stick as the sun is lowering.

  66. Again not that I trust this model much, but the 18z NAM is a bit lower on snowfall over the 12z. (This is the 3km.)

    1. I look at it this way.
      They’ve already gotten much further than any of us thought they would. Whatever happens today happens, but I am rooting for them full on, as always. 🙂

    1. Extremely sharp cutoff to the precip line and isn’t moving. Every time it looks to reload it stops. Even here it’s not accumulating with still some rain mixed in.

  69. Pretty sharp line between precip and no precip at this point, but this is pretty much what our short range guidance had indicated for this point in the afternoon.

    Now we watch for the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield. as the main short wave starts to impact the system. It was shown to be doing that starting about 5:00 p.m.

  70. My watch just told me my body is under significant stress …..,darned if I can figure out why

    1. Are you watching the same game I am? We’re ahead 21-10. He’s gonna make some boo-boos now and then. He’s young.

      1. I don’t count the lady as a turnover. To me it was the only play with the absolute knowledge that it could be picked. But why not.

        And as far as Maye overall…he’s darned hard to fault.

      2. People need to let the game play out , it’s a dogfight & both teams making plenty of mistakes , good teams adapt & overcome those mistakes !!!! Plenty of time folks

    1. I’m usually not too harsh on the refs but they have been brutal these playoffs, in many games. Might be time for some “re-training”. 😉

      1. I am the same. I was told often that you don’t argue with umps/refs. But agree re retraining. It also seems they can sometimes wait a long time to blow the whistle.

      3. Retraining isn’t the answer. They need to stop officiating differently in the playoffs. That goes for every sport. You can’t play an entire regular season enforcing the rules one way then suddenly change. Consistency is the right answer.

  74. HRRR is backing off snow totals a little bit more and also has an earlier end to the steady snow and more patchy end-of-storm snow than it had previously.

        1. Ok , maybe come home tomorrow. I’ll be mostly home for a couple of weeks when that happens as part 2 of her recovery will begin & hopefully will get a significant snow event

          1. Wonderful news. And so glad you are able to stay home for two weeks. Your being there is the best medicine.

    1. I was afraid of jinxing the situation but I thought during the week that the swagger of the Texans’ D was their weakness.

  82. Patriots open as a 4.5 point favorite

    So far today NY has recorded 0.4 inches
    Snowfall Standings
    NY 9.1
    BOS 5.4

  83. Yay Patriots. Once again, it was not pretty, but they prevailed.
    Defense was stellar.

    Drake Maye coughed it up 3 times and the Texans recovered twice, one leading directly to a Houston TD. We CAN’T HAVE THAT!! Drake, STOP IT!!!! He led the NFL in QB fumbles, clearly an area that needs some work, as great as he has been,

    Other than that I am good. We witnessed not 1, but 2 tremendous catches, one by Diggs and the other by Boutte!
    I Have zero issues with our receiving corp. And boutte made another great catch as well.

    Go PATS!!! Denver here we come!!!!

  84. SNOWING pretty good here in JP. Starting snowing “around” 5:30 PM, just about when the models predicted.

    Really cold here!, NOT! It’s 34, the perfect temperature for snow. Ha ha ha, but SNOW it is.

    1. Some of our meteorologists in CT were saying Saturday more snow in western CT and more snow in eastern CT for Sunday. This looks to be the case.

  88. From one degree outside.

    Thunder snow reported in Yarmouthport, MA, just after 7:30pm! Submitted by Michael, using the “Send to Us” tab of our 1DegreeOutside app, getting us the report right away! If you haven’t downloaded yet – easy search for “1DegreeOutside weather” on App Store and Google Play.

        1. Yup. Back edge of the steady stuff is around Worcester. This shuts off around midnight. Might be able to eke out another inch in eastern sections. Should fall into the very low ranges of most forecasts.

  91. Here in Woburn I’m right around 2 inches of sticky but not overly heavy snow. Into the forecast range at this location. Will take a closer look at everything later as we still have several hours to go of more intermittent snowfall after the steady snow breaks up in a little while.

    1. Based on those futurecasts, there will be one more fairly large batch of light-moderate snow between 6-8 am for eastern sections. Maybe an additional inch?

      1. I think most places will see under 1/2 inch from that batch, and it may be patchy coverage and not widespread.

  94. 3″ in Norton. About that here.
    Josh B. on Channel 5 reports that there are 18,000+ homes without power (mostly Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties) and that’s just from the big power companies and not including the municipal power providers.

    With the exception of the Seattle game last night, very entertaining NFL playoff games this weekend!

    ‘Night, y’all!

  95. Was heavier for a while. Still snow but a bit lighter. I’ll measure after Wordle but must be a bit over 2 now

  96. Moderate snow still hanging around eastern sections. Does not appear it will be leaving anytime soon. Certainly not complaining. 🙂

    Absolute FRIGID air for next weekend around here while Denver has temperatures near 50F.

    Fine with me. Lucky for the Patriots that Denver isn’t going to be experiencing cold & snow as well.

    1. Hi Philip. Looks as if you and I are the only night owls. I called my last total to nws and solved wordle so it’s off to sleep for me too. Sweet dreams.

  98. I’m a late night owl because I just shoveled for 90 minutes. 🙂

    Right about 4 inches here, a touch more to go from the overnight flakes.

    Accumulations are generally 2-4 inches per reports, but the majority are closer to 4 than to 2.

    As there were expected to be, there are pockets exceeding 4 inches, even up to around 6 inches in some southeastern MA and RI locations. Amounts drop off as you get to the northwestern reaches of my forecast area.

    Snow was sticky here but not “heavy”, so it was cold enough aloft for a lower water content but mild at the surface so it was a sticky landing.

    Not so light to the southeast, much more of a gloppy mashed potato snow, hence some power outages.

    Next update in about 5 hours. Night all!

    2. Yup, looks like about 4 inches.
      Still snowing decently here.

      Is this from an inverted trough? Storm system is well off shore. OE? Or what.

      1. According to yesterday’s discussion, this is a behind-the-low trough that would result in the morning snow showers.

  101. End-of-event trough snowfall was modeled perfectly by both HRRR and RRFS.

    New post…

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