Thursday January 22 2026 Forecast (7:20AM)

234 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

A warm front went by overnight, producing a period of snow inland and mix to rain along the coast. Today’s weather will be fairly benign, though breezy, and on the mild side compared to the last few days. Cold front #1 goes by late today with little fanfare, just a wind shift and a modest drop in temperature. Cold front #2 goes by later Friday. This one is an arctic front, and can be accompanied by a snow shower or snow squall, and will introduce the colder air mass of the season so far Friday night into the weekend. Saturday’s weather is dry but bitterly cold along with wind that will ease up by later on in the day, and sunshine that will be filtered by high cloudiness fanning across the sky in advance of a winter storm that brings a significant snowfall to our region Sunday into Monday. This will take place as a fairly elongated low pressure area passes to our south. There is still a little uncertainty on the exact track of the low, but for our area this just determines the amount of moisture that falls and as a result the amount of snow. The most northernmost potential the low track has would bring some mixing to the South Coast, but I’m not going with this scenario at this time – just a straight up significant snowfall for the entire region. Additional details will be posted in comments below as I get more information about this upcoming event, and of course another full discussion will appear with tomorrow morning’s blog post.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day snow shower or snow squall possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a potential snow shower or snow squall early, then clear. Lows 2-9. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills below zero.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 13-20. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills below 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 3-10. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow. Accumulations of greater than 6 inches regionwide likely. Temperatures slowly rise to 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod by later Sunday.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow or flurries with minor additional accumulation possible. Temperatures steady 18-25. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Generally dry and cold. A couple minor disturbances can bring a period of two of snow showers around January 28 & 30. Another storm system may approach at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Potential winter storm threats around February 1 and 5 in an active and fairly cold winter weather pattern.

234 thoughts on “Thursday January 22 2026 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  1. Thank you TK. Noticed that none of the TV mets posted snow maps this AM. They mostly spoke about the likelihood of 6″ and 12.” By tonight I suspect we might see a snow map on some station.

    Slick walking this AM!

  2. Thanks TK.

    Things look on track for region wide major snowfall. Been a while for sure tracking something like this.

      1. I am in a lot of snow camp, we’ve seen this before it usually produces prolific snows. I would say 12-18+ and many places close to two feet. I don’t think we mix here in anyway maybe except the south coast.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    36 here this morning. A coating of snow last evening.

    Ocean: 41

    Wordle: 4

    A couple of considerations for this upcoming storm:

    1. We have juicy gulf air riding over a cold dome of Arctic air.

    2. 925 mb flow coming in from the ocean. 850 mb as well in addition to ne surface winds. This spells Ocean enhancement to me.

    How much are the models taking all of this into account??

    Based on this morning’s review I would estimate the snow totals at 12-18 inches.
    Still could be more. Very significant event, bordering on black buster. Time will tell.

    1. I wrote “greater than 6” in my blog post, but the range I have in mind is 8-15 broad across the region.

      1. Alrighty then. You are in the snow camp. I still think you may be a bit on the conservative side, but good start on the event.

        Thank you

        A count buster for sure.

        Hope you don’t mind if some of us go higher.

        1. Gotta account for the lower amounts NW of Boston and out toward Worcester and in retrac’s neck of the woods, thus the 8”. I think places like Randolph and in that area end up being in the jackpot.

  6. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2026012200&fh=111&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012200&fh=111&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026012200&fh=111&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    IF the GFS is correct and I have seen some other models with hints at enhancement near the coast, look at these 3 links.

    Link 1, as the 850 mb low passes underneath us, there’s a decent low level ENE jet off the ocean, streaming in even more moisture.

    Link 2, the simulated heaviest snow of course overlaps the strongest projected part of that low level jet

    Link 3, just to the west of the coastal front.

    Yes, a broad swath of large amounts, but I believe this set up has high potential to clobber a small NE to SW area with ocean enhancement dependent upon where the coastal front sets up.

    1. Yeah the ocean enhancement and the 2nd low that forms is key to see if we can exceed two feet.

    3. The ICON is very similar to the GFS

      The GDPS and Euro are a little further north with their lows at 850mb. Oh, they offer plenty of overrunning/warm advection snow, but in their solutions, wouldn’t have as much additional contribution from an ENE 850 mb jet rising up and over a coastal front.

      This is a huge difference, because I think if the GFS/ICON coastal front enhancement verifies, were talking 20+ in a small NE to SW area just west of the coastal front.

      1. I think the global models can’t, understandably give the detailed look into a small ocean enhancement zone.

        We’re probably going to have to wait until we are within 48 hrs to let the short range models really zone in on it.

  7. I saw the discussion on snow amts thoughts just above.

    I will wait until we have this simulation within 48 hrs.

    At 72-84, the biggest threat is for a shift south this far out. 🙂

  10. As TK forecasted yesterday, wow, did the temps rise overnight, at least down here.

    When I went to bed, it was still below freezing.

    I woke up briefly around 3am and it sounded like it was pouring, I could hear water dripping off the roof.

    Looked at an ob and the temp/dp had risen to 39F/34F.

    The temp is similar, but our dp has fallen some. Closer to the ground, the snow has been more resilient, not melting as much.

  12. I had close to two inches. The forecast was only for a coating of snow for my area. Last night the appetizer before the main course Sunday.

      1. Nope, I’m in good company with a 6 🙂

        We got 2″ of snow overnight. Now we’re heading out for some time at Hampton Beach!

  16. If I’m interpreting the models correctly, which is a bit IF …. Some piece of this will break off and be part of the southern stream moisture …..

    https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=psw&band=10&length=24

    And then, around the ridge way out west in western Canada, a disturbance will be dropping down on the east side of the ridge to kind of ignite things into motion.

    https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=can&band=10&length=24

    1. I suppose one could also characterize the setup as one huge trof in central Canada and the disturbance is riding SE ward down the western side of this massive trof.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=44&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012212&fh=44&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

    The south …… when a pattern like this sets up and they get into that freezing rain, its not borderline freezing rain where its 29F to 32F, its brutal. I feel like I can see under some of the orange projected freezing rain, where it is 22F to 25F, maybe even a little colder. That is brutal.

  20. Hi all. I’m in SF for a few days but left my heart on woodshill. Very much enjoying the discussion and woke up early after a late arrival last night.

    Will there be a formal ceremony to mark the retirement of Philips count? Also, how long do we go before it is allowed to restart in the future? Philip do you remember when you started posting it last time…when did it become “a thing” in my students terms?

    I’m back this weekend in time to enjoy the patriots game (I hope) and a storm. Be well all….off to wordle in the early AM out here.

  21. Managed wordle in 3 after several days of 5/6 or miss.

    Tooting the whistle for now? hope I have some company.

    Best for a good day all.

      1. Absolutely. The afternoon forecasts will have everyones first maps based on my experience.

  23. The only thing that gives me pause with this storm is how locked in and consistent the global models have been, even since early in the week. I know that sounds crazy since that’s what we want right? Just makes me wonder what can change as we get closer. We’re still 3+ days out. I’ll feel much better when the short-range/high-res models start coming out and showing the same consistency

  24. FWIW, the 12Z NAM looks to be on board

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012212&fh=84

    RDPS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012212&fh=84

    ICON

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=90

    Kuchera Snow ===>>>> Keeps getting higher and higher

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  26. My greatest concern as it pertains to storms of this magnitude is the good ol’ dry slot shutting off precipitation earlier than depicted and cutting down on our maximum potential. Seen it all too often historically.

    1. Worried about that too, especially during storms that has to transfer energy to a coastal. Someone always gets screwed.

  27. 12z GFS seems to now be similar to EURO and honestly I do not see the mix line moving as close as some models depict.

    They always understand the cold in these situations, we have a cold ocean, cold high etc.. 9/10 this is all snow for most of us.

  28. Classic Miller B, ocean effect will 100% enhance coastal areas. Someone is walking away with two feet.

  30. Thanks TK! So some are saying this is going to be a nor’easter? That doesn’t seem accurate – it seems like this will be a steady snow but because of cold temps amounts will be higher and there will not be much wind. Also seems like the duration is going to be better for snow totals than strength of storm.

  31. Agree with the above comments…with the north trend in all the models, a dry slot and quicker shutoff to the precip is looking more likely, especially for us in CT, RI and SE MA. Doesnt look like as long a duration event anymore – more like an 8-12 hour “thump” before precip shuts off to lighter snow showers/mix/snizzle. If any areas do switchover to mix, it would occur during this time. All the meaningful accumulation still happens as heavy snow.

    That all said, 8-12 hours of moderate to heavy snow with high ratios is still plenty enough to get to 10-20″ regionwide and that is what we are seeing on most models.

    1. I wouldn’t be so sure it cuts off. Look at the transfer and track, bet it hold the precip much longer in eastern areas.

    2. Maybe I’m interpreting the 12z GFS, Icon, even the GDPS wrongly, but I’m not sure I am seeing the dry slot so much today?

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=99&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      First 3, 12z GFS …. bottom 3, 12z ICON

    2. 12z Canadian also has the coastal storm next Sunday 2/1 AND tries to pop a coastal late next week as well.

  33. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026012212&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    All the models have that coastal front, they just differ in its location

    Assuming the current inflow at 850 mb and 925mb continues, as modeled, I’m guessing a (20-24+ inch NE to SW oriented contour) is going to be needed JUST NORTH AND WEST of wherever that coastal front sets up for multiple hrs.

    1. 28-30F east of the front, low teens on the west side of the front with a 20-40 knot low level ENE jet riding up and over that differential. WOW !!!!!!!!

  34. The arctic air will really ignite the precip. I bet we see 2+ inches per hour at times. That air is really cold ahead of it.

        1. Why? I dont see one model putting QPF amounts out that low and ratios are high. Way too conservative. At least go 8-16″ or 10-18″ and then adjust slowly up if needed. Reasonable chance they may literally need to double that original range.

          1. Perhaps setting up expectations.

            I think its easier to give the public low numbers and raise them, then to give them high numbers and have to lower them.

            For some reason, there seems to be more frustration when the bar is set high on snow and then it has to be lowered, in my opinion.

            1. Cause Lord knows, as an example, there’s never any frustration expressed here when forecasted snow amounts underperform, lol

              1. If they are still low confidence on amounts then they should just do what NWS Gray did and say “greater than 6″ expected” in their statement which is the threshold exceedance for a WSW.

                Not much model guidance supports single digit snow amounts here. Nor does basic meteorology as QPF as low as 0.7″ falling into frigid air at high ratios will get you to double digits easily.

  36. Thanks, TK!

    I apologize if these questions have already been answered here earlier, but:

    Will wind be a factor during this weekend’s event? Are power outages possible? Thinking about Sunday’s football games.

    Will the snow be light, or wet and heavy? Will it be easy to move?

    Thanks to all who add their thoughts to these storms and post links to models!!! I always value your input!!!

    WHW is a fun place to be! 🙂

    1. Hi Captain !

      Hope all is well.

      Where you are, powder to start, perhaps trending a little, but not too wet mid event and coated at the top with more powder. Fairly easy to move, although, the sheer volume of a powdery snow can still be a bit heavy.

      Interesting on the wind, not excessive, but I did notice the pressure projection coming down a bit and with a high to the northeast, that should be enough gradient for a noticeable breeze, especially at the coast.

      1. Tom your making me nervous with this wetness talk , from what I’m seeing it would be through the cape but still a foot there . What is your thoughts for us Tom . As always appreciate your knowledge.

        1. Oh, don’t mean to confuse.

          Pretty powdery overall. I don’t think we have to worry about heavy, wet snow on trees like we can experience.

          Simply that the middle of the storm’s snow might be a touch wetter than the early and end snow. But overall, people will have to work hard to make a snowman.

          Snow, more than 6″ and I’ll give a more specific guess tomorrow evening, 48 hrs out.

  39. 12z euro is a beauty and they don’t pick up well on the OES etc… we need to see short range stuff to sniff out the jackpot zones.

  40. . Thats got Worcester cty. I’m Unclear whether we can expect a bit less out this way than east of us. Or do I have that backwards??

        1. Yep, but you do have the other short range models (NAM, RDPS, RRFS, etc) that go out 84 hours and are already in range.

      1. 10-20″ is a safe first call.

        Of course the actual headline says “20+ inches of snow could fall on Boston this weekend”.

      1. Column temp profiles, possible mid event easing/lull in precip for a bit in extreme southern areas, getting east of a coastal front for a few hrs where the temp will jump to 30F.

        This is certainly a very reasonable possibility. 🙂

    3. So, for the Boston outlets so far….

      10-20″
      12-24″
      10-16″ south/16-22″ north

      NWS: 6-12″

      Lol.

  46. What a nice, almost spring like afternoon compared to the last few days and with what is coming.

    Ordinarily I’d be bummed a good amount of snow has melted, but ……. 🙂

  47. If BDL records a foot or more it will be the first time since February 1st – 2nd of 2021.

  48. Not that it will be right or is correct, but I did a Facebook post and the gist of my post was, 72-84 hrs pre-event, it’s way to early to precisely know …

    1) where the coastal front will be. (I think we all feel just west of where that sets up could be the jackpot)

    2) towards extreme southern areas, where the lull or easing during mid system of the precip may or may not occur, which will affect amts

    3) identifying the areas that do end up east of the coastal front for handful of hours and temps get close to 30F cause that will slush up the roads. Those areas are going to have a flash freeze because that coastal front will collapse and those temps will crash into the mid teens.

    So, I’m half caring right now about these snow projections. We need to get to the 12z runs Saturday, in my opinion to get the info needed to get those specific details that can’t possibly be figured out now (in my opinion)

  49. JP Dave… I was just kidding earlier, daring the GFS to shunt everything south. It didn’t. 😉

    I wrote that at work and then got immediately and continually interrupted … for the next 4 hours.

    1. 🙂 🙂

      I actually thought you saw something that would indicate a suppression. I had no idea you were employing reverse psychology.

  50. I look at QPF and then temps and basically can come up with snow totals that way, it’s very accurate. I would say by tomorrow evening we should have a handle on totals.

  52. Channel 7 has a map that fit a scenario that I was thinking about for Boston and areas tightly surrounding Bos,ton both north and west of town.

    18-24″

    1. I think Channel 7 map has a lot to do with those off the water breezes bumping straight into the artic air … the enhancement. Just a guess.

  53. Ok Rachel (she knows who she is)! Here’s your update. Actually this update is for everyone. 🙂

    So it’s important to keep in mind that this is kind of a first call. You’re going to look at different maps on different channels and pages (hopefully ones run by professionals) and see different #’s and ranges. This is not unusual for a larger storm with a couple of contrasts to deal with. A forecast of 8-15, 10-16, etc., at this range are essentially identical, so don’t over-scrutinize the early numbers, just use them as a guideline.

    With 3 days to go before the arrival, this is my current idea of how it plays out.

    Elongated low pressure tracks near 40/70. This is close enough for significant precipitation and far enough to keep the warm air aloft from getting involved for sleet etc. to mix in. That in itself spells significant snowfall. The complication, and one we couldn’t start to know much about until today, is there will be the formation of a coastal front, somewhere between the South Shore and the I-95 belt. This will be key to the water content and consistency of the snow that falls.

    With the cold air in place everybody starts out as a light, low water content snow between mid morning and noon or so on Sunday.

    As things progress, the snow is steady and gets heavier as we move through the afternoon and peaks in intensity in the 6PM to midnight time frame Sunday night. During this time we see the formation of the coastal front. Snow to water ratios that start out in the range of 15:1 to 20:1 remain so west of the coastal front and drop closer to 10:1 east of it. Right now I think a good idea of where this front may be is just south of Boston to just east of the MA / RI border, but also understand this is not set in stone.

    The storm is going to very slowly wind down starting in the pre-dawn hours of Monday but taking a good part of the day. Some locations, especially eastern areas, can snow off and on (mostly on) for much of the day, not really wrapping up until evening.

    While the bulk of the snow and the heaviest intensity is likely to be between about 6 p.m. and midnight Sunday, there can be additional snow accumulation at a slower rate right into Monday evening before it finally gives up.

    This leads me to believe that a general 10 to 15 inch snowfall is likely near and west of the coastal front, with pockets of 16 to 20 inches. Amounts would likely come in more in the 6 to 12 inch range to the east of the coastal front.

    Not all of the ensemble members agree that the snowfall amounts will be that high over that much of the region, so it’s worth keeping that information in the back of the mind. Mother Nature often has some surprises tucked away in these events, and we will see if that’s the case and what they turn out to be.

    That’s it for now, more later!

  54. Sorry I have been mostly absent today as I was really tied up work. Usually I always have time to check in quite often
    Not the case today. Likely will be the same tomorrow.
    it was killing me that I could read posts and check models. I managed a peek or 2, but that was about it. 🙂

  57. Tweet from fox 25 met

    Two snowstorm pieces Boston will be dealing with Sunday-Monday…

    Ocean-enhancement… Arctic air, storm track, and elongated low will make this particularly efficient

    Low level frontogenesis… Peak snowfall rates up to 3″/hr and likely some thundersnow

    1. Now that is music to my ears. Picked up a couple of tubs of snow melt and gassed up this afternoon.

    2. I like thunder snow!!!
      3 inches per hour? Now I’d like to see that. DIDN’T see any pinks on the precipitation. Maps, so we’ll see. Right now I am doubting that. But we shall see

  58. I might have missed it earlier but I have not seen a HOLY CRAP BATMAN from JpDave for this storm system.

    1. Not yet. Need more data, plus not much wind to add to the ferociousness of the storm.

      You may get it yet, but not now. If this were a bomb near the benchmark, then yes!!

      1. Through 00z Monday (7PM Sunday).

        And the point forecast is ok, but the range forecast is still messed up.

        Fitchburg area: 1-7 inches? Nope. They NEED TO FIX THAT. I have no idea how they can even be ok with sending that product out.

      1. 15 years ago with the snow blitz rook rakes became an essential item to have. I still can’t believe 54.3 inches of snow fell that January for inland CT!

      2. Mark I so hope pembroke gets buried , this was the only thing I wanted while home caring for my wife , a long duration & double digit event . Fingers crossed !!!!

  63. Wow on the 18z GFS for its ‘backside’.

    Hr 93 and at 850 and 925 mb, there’s a beautiful low level ENE jet right into southern New England and that’s why there’s quite heavy snow simulated also on the backside.

    That is the ideal maximizing scenario with the heavy snow on the front end already due to overrunning/warm air advection.

    Maximize both and who knows what we could stack up.

  64. I think I am spooked bc of the last few years but is this really happening? lol Can’t wait for Phillip’s countdown to vanish.

    1. Just need to see it maintain forward.

      Thats the only caveat to being around 66 hrs before the snow develops.

      I’d like to think the models have this simulated well out to 90 hrs, but I still can see some small changes along the way.

      I would like to think there shouldn’t be major changes at this range.

      More like timing changes, 850 mb low track up to 25-50 miles either way, but that can cause a change for some areas. So, we’ll see.

      1. Not change as in precip type, but change as in where the best low level jet ends up. A 35 mile north change in the 850mb low track can send south shore heavy backlash snow to the NH. Visa versa, as well. It’s that kind of thing, I think, we have to accept can change at this range.

        I’d be shocked with a major change, like the northern extent of the snow shield suddenly only reaches the south coast, for example.

    2. The uncertainties are there but that is also true for most sizeable potential meteorological events anywhere in the world. In short, are there more / the same / or less uncertainties in this event as compared to any other similar event?

      For me, the culprit is in these snow maps. I understand the pressures inside the local news stations but displaying definitive snow maps in a setup like this more than 48 hours out seems a little irresponsible.

      Okay, rant over! Anyone got a snow map they want to share?!

      1. Time for us all to write to management. If we don’t……well, we know where the fault lies

    3. I remember during my snow removal days where we were expected To get clobbered & had a ton of help lined up & we got nothing at all , is this on the table Tk as at least yes it is

  67. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2026012218&fh=93&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=850wh&rh=2026012218&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    18z gfs vs 18z icon, 850 mb wind for the 2nd half of the event.

    Quite an important difference of where the 2 models show that moist low level onshore jet during the 2nd half of the storm. This is because the icon tracks the 850 mb low further north than the gfs.

    Icon is further north and id offer that location of the low level jet would offer a modest backlash for southern England. 1-4 additional inches?

    The GFS location is much better for a backlash in southern areas. Several inches more, at least.

    Which verifies or is it somewhere in btwn?

    Also, if the gfs verifies, the sfc low also tracks a little further south and with all the arctic air nearby, does the sfc wind go ageostrophic earlier in the event. That might push the coastal front offshore which would bring Logan, Boston and marshfield into play for the bullseye.

    Or does the coastal front maintain a little further inland pushing that bullseye further inland?

    1. Still quite a few of those details to work out, so nothing fully set in stone there. Probably another 48 hours for that to get fine tuned.

      1. Thanks TK !

        I didn’t watch the whole thing above and I don’t remember the episode, but I remember watching a couple episodes of underdog when I was young.

      1. The coastal front location, yes, perhaps now casting indeed.

        I hope though by 24 hrs out, the models agree much better on the 850 mb low track. Too much spread right now to understand how strong/intense and where the best 2nd half snows of the system could end up.

  68. TK and Longshot, I see Bruce Cassidy and co are in the garden tonight vs the Bruins.

    I think Monty did a solid job and I think Sturm is doing an amazing job this year.

    I still root for Cassidy. He’s got a decent team out there still in Vegas.

  69. JPD I’m not only happy for us but especially happy for you. I was telling Hadi on the side a nice coastal front dump in your backyard is well deserved

    I’m flying out of Dallas tomorrow late morning just ahead of the ice storm they’re wigging out over. Like they’re freaking out. I told them 1-2’nwaitonf for me and they can comprehend it.

    2. Funny, I was speaking to one of my vendors today who is in Dallas and he said the same thing. He wasn’t concerned but said lots of people were “freaking out”.

      1. Lots of experts on FB faulting Mets and hype. Oddly the one I engaged with said he manages road clearing for the town. Meteorologists may be second to complaints about roads

  71. Rant back on: I have a TV station telling me I should see 18-24″ from a storm sitting off Baja! Certainly sounds reasonable!

        1. I know that. Sorry. I meant are you referring to this storm. I thought the Maps all or most have you in that range

          1. Well one map has me at 18-24 and another has me at 10-20. So I could see 10 or I could see 24.

  72. I find it interesting that all of the tv snow maps have widespread amounts. None of the typical “zones” whatsoever.

  73. Kinda boring day of model watching. Not much changed today. Wildly consistent runs. Watch all hell break loose tomorrow, lol

    1. Weird to see such model consistency on a widespread major snowstorm 3-4 days out. Doesnt happen too often. And not surprisingly, most forecast outlet snow maps are pretty similar to each other at this point, give or take a few inches. NWS aside that is…

    2. I respectfully, somewhat disagree.

      The snow maps may be somewhat consistent, but the meteorology, things like location of the 850 mb track, the location of the coastal front, I think there are important differences in those.

      I think the big front end thump is contributing to the snow maps to looking consistent.

      But, the how the2nd of this system plays out, to me, is very uncertain.

      I think there’s a chance snow projections could be underdone, especially if the 18z GFS track of the 850 mb low verifies.

      So, yeah, I think there’s uncertainty remaining
      in the 2nd half of the storm until we have an agreed upon track of the 850mb low when its passing south of us.

      Like, 25-30” is in play somewhere in southern new
      England if the 18z gfs verifies, I believe.

      1. If the 18z Icon verifies, we might be capped at 10-14”, in my opinion, so wildly different outcomes are possible.

  74. That Bruins 3-goals-in-54-seconds burst was the most exciting part of my day. 🙂

    1. Leads to a dry slot and while healthy snow amts from the front end, first half, thump, wouldn’t get us a strong 2nd half of the system.

  76. As we anticipate a possible major snowstorm along with some cold air, the Atlantic lows take their almost daily traverse over the British Isles. The rather cold first 10 days or so of January are like a distant memory. My daughter says it’s rained or drizzled pretty much every day since the cold vanished around the 10th. Still, I miss England and the UK. I wish getting a permanent resident visa wouldn’t be so hard. https://x.com/OrkneyUncovered/status/2014340005276090522

    1. The northward nudge is becoming a little more prominent in the trends. Not surprising, given the time between now and the event. We can never lock anything in completely at this range.

      I think I’m pretty certain that Boston’s 6-inch snow drought ends. Beyond that, not much else specifically.

      1. Ok thanks TK !

        The 00z GFS continues a much better 850 mb track for the longevity piece of the storm. So, a little scary :), to Hope the GFS has this right. 🙂

        Less chance of a dry slot, some chance of heavy snow on the backside, cooler throughout the event aloft.

        Come on, GFS !!!!

        Good night, all !

  79. Canadian from 00z is down on snowfall and introduces a wide swath of sleet to southern areas.

    1. Shhhhhhh. Stop being a Debbie downer. lol. This thing is coming and will be robust for most if not all of SNE 🙂

      1. I guess I’m still awake.

        No 🙂

        Except for the GFS, the 850 mb low is further north and that means watching a mild nose at 700 mb and a dry slot starting midnight Sunday night.

        At 500 mb, the trof is way west and there’s not great blocking to our northeast, so, I have some concerns the further north 850 mb low track is possible.

        Still a very nice front end thump, but if these non gfs models verify, not the major, major snow amts it has potential to be. A decent, good snowstorm noon to midnight Sunday, but not massive had it had a 2nd part well into Monday.

        Hopefully at 60 hrs, the models are missing something that will correct them more to the GFS version.

        1. This further north 850 mb low track might crush the east facing sides of the green and white mtns though with that low level jet in northern New England rising up those mtns.

          Again,good that we have 60 hrs to play with. This milder trend aloft doesn’t mean it’s the correct, final outcome.

  80. ECMWF-AI brings a widespread tight ranged 10 to 14 inch snowfall, but does not reach to the larger values seen on other guidance.

  81. I heard on the radio that there are 2,000 miles worth of Winter Storm warnings and watches.

    Is this similar to the Superstorm of 1993? It sure seems like it to me. I would also say that our air masses to the north are considerably colder.

    1. Not unheard of with the larger winter storms. Media makes a lot of stuff sound like it’s never happened before. 99% of the time that is not the case.

  82. Fwiw…According to AccuWeather: widespread 6-10”. Given the huge amounts of 12-24” on local tv that is very conservative to say the least.

    Is the AccuWeather amount starting low for now or do they believe the storm will be passing a further distance south?

  83. TK – The record 6”+ “snow drought” set from 1978-1979 to 1991-1992. Is it 1,722 or 1,772 days?

    I believe the current is #2. Correct?

  84. JR mentioned the possibility of thundersnow in the 18-24 inch area surrounding Boston. He also introduced the possibility of scrapping the 18-24” and just leaving the region in 12-18” with 8-12” for the South Coast/Cape.

    I’m beginning to wonder now if amounts start going down a bit from here on out. We will see.

  85. I have never experienced thundersnow. Maybe I will with this upcoming storm system. One of our meteorologist in CT mentioned this morning the possibility of thundersnow to happen.

  86. For fun …..

    If the non-GFS models are correct, 5-8” right at the south coast (including MV and Nantucket), 8-12” most of CT, RI, Mass, 12-18” most of northern New England, with any east facing high elevated slopes in northern New England seeing 2-3 ft.

    If the GFS is right, 12-20” southern New England with a NE to SW oriented, 24-30” + contour somewhere in the eastern third of Mass under that backside low level jet, further enhanced to the west of wherever a coastal front would set up.

    Just need the models to resolve their important differences at 850 mb

  87. I still like everything I am seeing for a wide 12-18 snowfall region wide and localized 18-24+. Coastal front will be key, short range stuff will looks great overall.

  90. The non GFS models ….

    95% of southern new England’s snow is noon Sunday-midnight Sunday night.

    Then, there’s a lull or there’s some light frz drizzle falling into sunrise Monday morning. Mid morning through mid afternoon, light snow redevelops and there’s a 1-2”, topping.

    The GFS scenario, that’s the longevity scenario.

    There’s really no lull in southern New England from noon Sunday thru to Monday evening.

    There’s also heavy snow potential in the 2nd half of the system in southern New England.

    The non-GFS is a good snowstorm, still with high impact,

    The GFS scenario is a snowfall output we might talk about for years.

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