DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
A disturbance passing by to the south brings some showers, even a few downpours, to the South Coast and Islands early today, while early to mid morning stratus / fog blanket a good portion of the region too. After this, we see more sun, mixed with clouds, and only a slight chance of a stray pop-up shower, so the day turns out mainly dry and on the warm side after the start described in my first sentence. Our Labor Day Weekend forecast remains decent. Pop-up showers are possible Saturday in response to upper level low pressure overhead. Surface low pressure to our east Saturday and Sunday brings us a cooling north to northeast flow. This air flow over the Gulf of Maine will enhance surf on north-facing and east-facing shores, so if you have beach and boating plans this weekend, keep that in mind. Monday will see the coolest morning, but the largest temperature rebound of the three “weekend” days, though some cloudiness may increase from the north late in the day in response to an approaching weak through. But, other than that pop-up shower threat Saturday, we will enjoy dry weather for the three day stretch. A low pressure trough passing by early Tuesday may produce a brief shower otherwise that day looks fair too.
TODAY: Low clouds / foggy areas much of the region, while heavier clouds and a few showers / downpours pass through the South Coast region, followed by a sun / cloud mix with a chance of a pop-up shower this afternoon. Highs 77-84. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouds and a possible shower early, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Wind W shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
Disturbances in a northwest flow are roughly timed to pass through early September 10 and 13 when brief shower threats occur, otherwise a mainly dry pattern with somewhat variable but overall near to slightly above normal temperatures.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
Up-and-down temperature pattern with a couple unsettled weather episodes with quick-passing systems indicated for mid month.
One more comment on WMO: I still don’t agree with their wording. Stick to science. Attention-grabbing is a tactic used by non-professional weather pages, and it will not have the desired impact other than for people to start placing them in the category as the non-professional pages (which I am at least happy to see them finally being called out by mainstream media and NOAA). We need to defend our science. I’ll always do that, even if it means disagreeing with a large agency. I have no issue whatsoever stating my opinion on that. 🙂
Also, we’re not even sure that the current El Nino will surpass the three greatest measured ones (instrumentally): 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1982-1983. It may. But it may not. It will likely fall shy of 1877-1878. We’ll know in a few months. The event will peak before winter and be weakening during winter. Many reports you hear make this sound like El Nino is ALREADY at record territory. It is not. RONI was at 1.0 last report (though now it’s probably closer to 1.5). El Nino 2016-2017 peaked at 2.3. El Nino is building. The question remains: What will the peak be? It’s time for media to stop jumping the gun on everything.
Good morning and thank you TK
67 up from 66 with dp 62
Ocean: 68
Wordle: 6. For the 3rd day in a row. Will anyone join me in the caboose? It is very lonely.
Nice, JpDave !
What is so nice about it? I think it SUCKS!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
Alright, lol !!
Get with it then and I expect a 2, tomorrow !
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
🙂 🙂 🙂
ha ha ha Not in the cards !!!!!
I’ll settle for a 4. 🙂
Thanks TK. Did you reach out to WMO? I’m
Not sure how but will look into it later today.
We are at our low of 64 with a dew point of 63.
Wordle 5. And I’d happily join you, JPD.
Easier than I thought.
https://wmo.int/contact-us
Nice 5. I am in a rut. I got a 6 three (3) days in succession.
YUCK!
While I believe I used to have more 3s and 4s, I’ve shifted to more 5s and 6s. And a couple of fails. I think, but may be way off, that NYT is finding more ways to be tricky There were always occasional choices but lately it seems to be the rule.
Very good, Vicki !
I reached out to WMO. Will share if I hear back.
This is on its site. It seems science based and quite concerning if we are reaching this stage of warming.
https://wmo.int/content/exceptional-el-nino-demands-exceptional-response
I got Wordle in 4 today.
My first guess gave me the correct middle letter and one other in the wrong position. Having that middle letter was a big help,
Great job!
Low ceiling on the coast this morning, but still was able to see the ocean on the way into work this morning.
Wordle: 4 – the last two days I’ve had letters 2-5 in correct position on 3rd try and I don’t know why those words popped into my head.
Super 4s for you both.
Great Bill and SClarke !
Excellent!!!
Thanks TK !
Wordle: I missed the train (fail)
Weird because I identified 2 letters on my first guess and each guess was making some progress, but somehow, I never gone there in time.
Oh well 🙂
Darn. And more and more common. Please hop on the 5 car. If I’m there, it’s cause I wandered onto the 6 car so JPD and I would both have coming. You are welcome there too.
Thanks 🙂
Sorry time. I can see how that could happen easily. Almost happened to me. On my 6th guess still had choices and IF I didn’t pick the correct one, I would have failed as well. 🙂
Movies. I watched three men and a baby last night. I’d seen it when it first came out but that was almost 40 years ago. Yikes. It was fun. I’ll watch the sequel next
Fun, enjoy the sequel !
🙂
I remember that movie. It was cute. Not sure I’d want to watch it now.
Want something a bit different? Watch The Runner
on Netflix.
Adding to my list. Thank you.
This is a site I read every Monday, as that is when it has its weekly update.
The part that has my attention is that the 4 “regions” of the ENSO are behaving very different.
Region 1 and 2 are “boiling”, if you will, at multiple degrees C above average, whereas, if you move west on the equatorial Pacific, region 4 peaked months ago and has returned to average temps.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Slide #5 has a nice graphic on the right that shows the 4 regions temps.
But make no mistake, there is a lot of ocean off the western South America coastline that have +3.5C anomalies.
3.5C =6.3F
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20262471251_GOES19-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-2400×2400.jpg
Yes, cloudy here, as of now under the coastal low stratus.
Looked out the window, it’s fairly foggy too 🙂
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/cgl/Sandwich/20262471251_GOES19-ABI-cgl-Sandwich-2400×2400.jpg
What would a day be lately without an impressive blob of storms around the ridge’s ring of fire? This morning, it’s near/over the Great Lakes.
https://radar.weather.gov/region/centgrlakes/standard
Joining the 4 car.
Very nice !
Super!
I though it was supposed to be drier today.
dew point is 66 here!!!!
66 at the airport, Bedford and Norwood!!!!
Gimmie a break when is this BS going to end (@!)*#(*@!()*#()!@*#()*!@)(*#()!@*#()*!@()#*()!@*#()!*@()#*()!@*#()!@*()
Agree. DPs play darned near as much into how I approach the day as the temp does.
Surface map
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Too close to the boundary and it just hasn’t dried out much at all, in fact dew point is virtually the same as it was yesterday on the other side of the boundary!!!!
Good news, looking at the obs, I see signs of NW winds building inland.
Get that sun a little higher in the sky, takes longer now in September and add some heat, which should induce better mixing and that inland drier air should make its way to the coast. 🙂
wow! do DOWN to 65 here. Big Woof!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
Hang in there 🙂
It should be cool by morning, mild at best tomorrow and downright chilly by Sunday morning with a mild afternoon and another cool one Sunday night.
Good news. Son and DIL have the half marathon tomorrow. He said when they did it last year it was 90s with high DP
Good !
Thanks TK
It’s a shame it appears they are headed for a mistrial in the Lindsey Clancy trial.
Very very tough for all.
Can’t convict her on murder. Who in their right mind kills their own children. Therefore, she was NOT in her right mind, thus temporary insanity. AS long as she is now deemed mentally fit, she should be acquitted on the basis of insanity. Else be required to receive some sort of mental health help. The system FAILED her miserably.
Feel fairly similar.
I just feel bad if there’s a mistrial and the DA wishes to retry.
I wouldn’t have followed along like I did, if not for my wife.
Every evening, she watched all the testimony.
She engaged in the trial because she went through post partum after, especially our first daughter was born. She’s been rather po’d frankly at the prosecution the whole time, thinking they are wrong.
I didn’t obviously go through that, so it’s harder for me to relate. All I know is, I thought the defense without a doubt, proved reasonable doubt.
I agree that the prosecution should NEVER have tried her for murder, because, well, it was NOT murder.
What she did was terrible, but Post partum depression can do awful things to one’s mind. If I were a juror I would NEVER NEVER EVER convict her of murder of any degree. I would push for acquittal on the grounds of temporary insanity as obviously she did not possess her full faculties. I might be convinced to convict on a lesser charge of some sort of manslaughter to the least degree possible, but NEVER murder.
What is happening is that you have some conservative leaning jurors, perhaps even some magas that think she killed the children so she deserves what she gets. Give her the gas chamber and then you have some more compassionate more liberal leaning jurors who recognize what post partum can do to someone and will NOT convict on murder. Thus the jury is deadlocked. perhaps there is ONLY one jury who feels that way, but in our justice system, that is all it takes,
We shall see how it turns out.
I’m sitting in the car at the barn waiting for my granddaughter and listening to a Bobby bones podcast. They reviewed their favorite 80s movies. Three men and a baby was on top of the list.
🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=850th&rh=2026090412&fh=294
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2026090412&fh=294
I know we are 2.5-3 months away from looking at the models for future snow events.
I wouldn’t get excited about anything beyond 72-96 hrs as the above example shows a massive difference btwn the GFS op run vs the AIGFS. They aren’t even in the same universe.
If I had to pick one, it would be the much cooler AIGFS.
Holy crap batman, what a difference!!!!!!
Definitely declared a mistrial!
has it been declared a mistrial/?
Yes, it was. ANd it looks like one brave juror wouldn’t give in.
Key Details of the MistrialThe Deadlock: The 12-person jury reported for a third time that they were entirely unable to reach a unanimous verdict. Reports from the courtroom indicated that the panel was split 11 to 1.
Attempts were made to have the one juror removed. Didn’t work.
Hey, I might be dead wrong. Maybe it was one juror
who wanted the conviction for murder and all the others did not. My wife thinks that. I do not know.
With the trial concluding without a verdict, the Plymouth County District Attorney’s Office will have to decide whether to retry Clancy, pursue a plea negotiation, or drop the charges entirely. In the interim, she is expected to remain in custody at Tewksbury Hospital, the state-run psychiatric facility where she has been held.
It could easily be the one juror who wanted a murder conviction. One day we will probably find out.
Tewksbury Hospital in my opinion is a pit.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=850th&rh=2026090412&fh=252
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2026090412&fh=252
Earlier today, I posted a long range simulation from the GFS op run and the AIGFS to show how different they were in the long range.
The Euro and AI ECMWF are no better. Completely different universes, except this time, the Euro op run is chilly and the AI is toasty.
Fun times coming this winter looking long range for snow opportunities, lmao !!
Don’t worry about that. Which ever one shows the rain will be correct.
lol ! I should have thought of that !
I see a decent shower on the northeast part of Buzzards and wonder if it’s the beautiful pink/ocean relatively tall cumulus I can see on the extreme southern horizon?
Thank you TK!
Wordle was a 4 today.
Excellent 4, Sue!
Sure was!
Great, Sue !
Another nice win for the Sox.
They do have to make some smarter choices on their challenges.
Ump comes into the game close to the bottom in calling pitches correctly.
Sox are up 1-0 in the 7th, 1st pitch of the inning and I think it was Duran who challenged. Silly, it wasn’t anywhere near a crucial pitch, his challenge was wrong and while they won, they left Whitlock and Chapman without a challenge in the all important 8th and 9th innings.
That has to be cleaned up.
Already Down to 61. Great weather for sleeping