The Week Ahead

125 Comments

7:03AM

A very mild Monday as a warm front lifts north of the region first thing in the morning and a cold front approaches from the west. It will be unsettled though with clouds dominating and showers, some heavy, especially early in the day. Another round of showers Monday evening with a cold front passing west to east across the region will set the stage for a return to chilly weather Tuesday through midweek. Clouds may be stubborn to leave and there may even be a touch of light rain in southeastern areas Tuesday and a near-miss of snow in the same areas later Wednesday as a couple of waves of low pressure travel along the front which will slow down just offshore. High pressure will dominate with fair weather later in the week into the early part of the weekend with the next threat of unsettled weather coming later in the weekend, based on current timing of systems.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers, a few heavy, moving southwest to northeast across the region during the morning, then scattered to just isolated light rain showers rest of day. Highs 55-60. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT:  Cloudy. Another round of rain showers crossing the region from west to east. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a threat of a little light rain southeastern MA, then increasing sun northwest to southeast. Temperatures steady 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 25. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

125 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. re-posted from other blog

    check out Brett Anderson’s blog this morning. I-95 not looking good for snow if that turns out to be true. Not much cold air anywhere. hmmmmmm…

  4. He’s got one out dated for today. Has it stormier but “wet”. Check out his comments to questions at bottom relating to where he thinks it’ll snow more than rain.

  9. 63F/59F temp and dewpoint in Marshfield. Wind is around to the south and southwest, the low clouds are moving pretty quickly from southwest to northeast……..every once in a while, it brightens significantly.

        1. very cool. I have the 2 still and no wifi as I only use it where I have internet access anyway and my iPhone for anywhere else. I know you will love it.

          1. Its not for me. I bought it for my wife for a christmas gift. I am so excited for her too get it. My friend who handled everything gave it to me friday night.

  11. NAO from the 00z EURO

    2012121000z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -146.680969
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -106.304245
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -91.1759186
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -77.410965
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -90.1551971
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -83.7867737
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -113.091171
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -123.861374
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -135.830048
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -141.411957
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -121.332138
    NAO value for Day 1-5: -89.7666168
    NAO value for Day 6-10: -127.105339

    1. Thanks HADI,

      Looks promising. Now if the Operational runs would come around
      to some Coastal development, we might be in business. At least, as opposed to
      last year, we have some Negative NAO indices!! Let’s see if it translates
      into something. Would like to see a white Christmas. 😀

      2. Of course, I dont trust any of it 🙂

        Rare chance to post in the middle of day, my wife had a very minor outpatient procedure this morning (she’s fine !! and snoozing), I got all my grading done and until she wakes up, I can spend some time on the weather.

          1. Haha….nope. I wont see much of the game tonight or next Sunday night. If I stay up past 10, to have to get up at 6am and teach effectively at 7:55am, thats a tough task. I dont mind missing a few games during the regular season.

            1. I’m the same exact way. I hate the night games. I don’t know how people watch the entire game than get up at like 5 or 6 for work. Not I.

    1. Yes, I just encountered the same error on the NCEP main page.

      I google GFS loop and the site I use is golden gate weather service – ncep loops page. It is working.

  13. I loved falling sleep to the rain last night–so peaceful.

    I don’t mind the cloudy weather today. It is nice to wear my rain jacket instead of my winter one for a day. 😀 I like the irregularity sometimes 🙂

  14. There are tropical torrents headed out of far southeast CT, into Rhode Island and about to hit south of Boston. With the extreme low sun angle and these thicker cloud tops evidently moving in, its getting fairly dark.

    1. Occasional waves of heavy showers beginning to start up……

      Look at Worcester, 52F and Blue Hill, 57F ….. its only a matter of time before the “cool” air gets scoured out further inland.

  15. Holy cow….just had a clap of thunder in Plymouth that scared the hell out of me. I thought I saw a flash but figured I was seeing things.

    1. Sue, it looks like some heavy rain heading your way according to the radar. Could you send a little thunder and lightning north? 🙂

  16. 12z GFS is interesting – redevelops the storm off the Carolina coast Sunday/Monday and then it explodes into a major ocean storm and tracks northeast, putting us on the outer fringes, before retrograding and sitting over Maine till Wednesday. Would be a big snowstorm for Maine if that happens.

    The storm before xmas is still there as well though its arrival is now delayed till xmas eve. Track is west of us over NY but plenty of time for that to change.

  17. Just looked at the doppler radar – very impressive.

    Vicki – remember yesterday I posted that I wished we’d get some thunder/lightning w/the rain? And then I said, no way. Well, at least on the south shore and se ma they are getting some thun./light. I don’t think we will see any around here, unless the cold front tonight has enough convection.

    1. Moths last night were terrible, they were everywhere, it’s crazy we still have insects flying around in mid Dec

    2. Thanks for the interesting article, Vicki. I never knew they were destructive, either. They are all over our door and side of house and now I am concerned about our trees around our house. I don’t like moths and now I have more reason to dislike them!

    3. Vicki – we usually go to see the lights at the Fatima Shrine in Holliston every year. But I am wondering if we should wait – I don’t like the idea of dodging moths when I am trying to enjoy the beautiful lights.

      1. If the moths don’t go away until Jan. – I wonder when we can go. I will hope for a very cold night, I s’pose.

      2. I hadn’t thought of that. We always go just before Christmas also.

        Have you been to Meehan’s in Millis? You drive through. My daughter said they didn’t notice the moths there.

  19. Hello everyone, although I think the week leading up to Christmas will feature snow unfortunately it will be rain in the Boston Providence corridor, its early yes but it just looks like an inside runner, Go Patriots!!

    1. I will have to read thoroughly once I have a minute but that is the blog my husband’s cousin gave me the link to. She lives in Seattle. I was wondering after comments here and after the Euro was so accurate compared to GFS for Sandy why it is used. I believe some here have given its strengths.

  21. Nice article coastal. We “throw” the GFS out all the time don’t we.

    I bet if we put Apple or Google in charge of producing a better model, we’d have it by this weekend. Heck, I bet Amazon might even have some excess computing power in their servers, maybe NWS should give them a call.

  23. How can anyone predict an inside runner or monster snow storm two weeks with any accuracy? Again Charlie nothing against you, but easy to say that and adjust the other way bc then people get excited about snow and overlook that rain was being predicted.

    2. As I said in my comment it is early but there r early hints of an inside runner, I could be wrong, we shall c 🙂

    1. Depends on how far north. The current (polar) jet stream is actually straddling the Canadian border (far north) so places like Van Buren, Presque Isle, are in the 20s and experiencing snow almost every day, with cold nights in the single digits and below. But, I imagine you’re not going that far north.

    2. I always felt that north of here when there was a major storm it was business as usual. I don’t know if that still holds true but the northern NE states are far better equipped and the drivers are also more educated. For good reason – they have more snow.

        1. undoubtedly true and another good factor. Although around ski areas in the dead of winter there was always lots of traffic and we never had trouble getting to or from anywhere.

    1. Yes…..we might know as early as this Thursday on the EURO’s handling of temperature patterns. By Thursday, it has the cold air in full retreat across all of the US. Behind the next set of low pressure areas, its solution does not show any cold air behind epthe departing system. So….on Thursday, if somewhere like International Falls, MN is in the 30s, then I’ll take the EURO’s milder take on these storms.

      1. That’s incredible – possibility of cold air being in full retreat across the U.S. soon. I sincerely hope this doesn’t happen. Something is wrong if we get a total repeat of last December in the lower 48. Maybe even worse in terms of temperature and snow cover.

  26. I was up in Presque Isle, Caribou, and Fort Kent this past week and their grass is as green as ours. It was absolutely amazing from the top to the bottom of Maine not one trace of snow. Not even a left over snow bank.

    1. Interesting and telling for the `winter’ thus far. Right now, however, I doubt whether it’s all green. Most of the action right now is in New Brunswick, but a rather vigorous small system did produce snow in that part of Maine today. Furthermore, although somewhat muted, some cold air has penetrated Northern Maine and will continue to do so this week. It’s 22 in Van Buren right now, with snow showers.

  28. I’m sick of the moths, I’m sick of the warm temps, I’m sick of the rain, I’m sick of living in a North Carolina Climate. Even in 2010-2011, my house biggest snowfall was 14″, the majority of the snow events had some sort of rain mixed in or super heave wet snow. We had like (7) 6″ storms like that.

    1. I feel your pain. Believe me, a day like today, but also several days last week, get me upset as well. I look at my calendar and it says “December 10th.” The only sign that it is indeed December is the amount of sunlight hours. Other than that, the past 10 days could have easily been April, even early May, late October. And, winters are somewhat similar to a baseball season. Your team can start out bad for a couple of weeks, but you don’t want to continue to stink for too much longer or your season will be over. There’s a lot of time still for winter to get going, but it’s got to show me something soon.

  29. Mathematically, today’s 50s and 60s at Logan, Worcester, Providence and eventually Hartford (they’ll warm sector by evening) could possibly have put the month of
    December already in the above avg temp column wise. Here’s the math of it…

    At the end of today, we’re basically 1/3 of the month thru December. With today’s warmth, anomolies will be around 5F above avg. So, 5 x .33 = 1.65F. That would require the rest of the month to avg. 1.65. / .66 = about 2.5F below normal. Certainly, this is very doable, until you account for the idea that norms are now about 42F/30F and trending downward. I cant see the next 10 days being 2.5F below normal, which would mean the last 10 to 11 days would have to be even colder than 2.5F below normal. We’ll see, I do suppose 1 arctic blast at month’s end with a 12F/-1F day would change things quite a bit.

  30. I don’t think we’re going to be in a pattern change until we’ve been in it for a while. Sounds screwed up I know but you guys know what I’m saying. The model runs just keep coming in pretty mild. The cold just doesn’t want to stay. When I looked at Brett Anderson’s blog this morning and saw all of that warmth predicted not too far to our south and southwest, I started thinking perhaps a similar winter to last after all. I’d love a clipper to come down and blow up in the warmth just off the Delmarva. That’s one possibility I see in his maps for us getting some snow as we get into Jan. & February. Still would not be shocked if we stay in a wavy pattern of some short-lived cold followed by mild stuff.

    TK might argue that any clippers will be OTS in support of his dry prediction. Could totally see that too if the jet doesn’t buckle enough.

    If it’s still 40 degrees on New Years day……well….you know.

    1. Im not sure on his dry theory. This is the third day it has rained since Friday. And Sunday and Monday could feature snow or rain. Not dry too me.

      2. I don’t think you are really getting what I mean by a dry pattern. 3 out of 4 days with rain in them doesn’t mean “wet pattern”.

        And did I not call for some events to take place?

        A dry pattern does not mean it never precipitates. It is precisely the pattern we have been in for a good portion of 2012. Precipitation deficits are in the order of 6 to 8 inches now. That is indeed a dry pattern which we are in and will likely continue to be in.

  32. The latest 8-14 day CPC (Dec. 18-24) has normal temps and precip for the entire east coast with the above normal temps shifting westward to the Midwest and Plains.

    TK, could this the beginning of a pattern change to colder and snowier conditions for us?

  33. Going forward, I see the precip in these models but not the cold air. Some change in the temps and a little redirection on the tracks and we’ll be there.

    I like to get a few 5-8 inchers and one gigantic snow bomb per season. Once again I have an uneasy feeling I should have taken my projection from last year (3″) and kept it for this year.

  35. I believe right around Christmas or just after is when we get snow and it actually will stay on ground bc of the cold accompanied with it, it is far way but until we get there it’s quite boring,, have a good night everyone go patriots!!

    1. Funny thing is I don’t think this is boring. To me it is different enough to keep us on our toes. I figure what we get is exactly that and no sense in not enjoying it. We have windows open in every room, Christmas music playing, lights on…..what’s not to enjoy 🙂

        1. John. It’s 60 degrees here. Don’t you open windows in summer? And you cant get sick from air……just sayin :).

  36. i have a question for all of you. IS FACEBOOK OFF or something since i put facebook in and it says facebook is shutdown right now try again later. never seen this before

  38. Went up to Ogunquit this summer and the water was 68. I’ve never seen that and I’ve been going up there for twenty five years

  39. the weather pattern may be different than last year, but the results are the same, so far, what are the chances of this happening all winter. I am not saying it will just asking the question.

    1. It’s a good question. I feel as if we are saying the same things now that we were last December. But it is only December 10 and hopefully it will change …….quickly !!

  40. Pete on his evening blog is already hinting at a BROWN Christmas this year. He sees little or no cold air with any of the upcoming storms. The way things have been going so far including last winter, I may have to agree. 🙁

  41. My gut tells me the next potential storm system to be more of a mixture far interior than snow and rainorma for everyone else. I hope I am wrong.

  50. NO ONE EVER MESSES WITH TExAS…… challenge excepted 😀 . we will certainly mess with TEXAS! :D… go Pats

    now back to weather. What in gods name earth is happening this weekend and onward. Once i do not look at the weather models for more than 2 days something shows up. IM not looking since i think myself looking at the models is bad luck for snow lovers. lets see 😉

    1. The models, even reliable guidance, can have trouble, and many of them have been recently.

      Sensible meteorology comes in handy. I toss out some of the fancy maps and #’s the computer makes up and just do the work myself. This is how I came up with the idea of colder and a few precip/snow threats starting around Dec 15. I am holding to this. Not saying we’re about to get buried in snow. I don’t think that’s the case either. But I do think we’ll see whitening ground at least at times in the days to come, starting at mid month.

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