Bookend Weekend

216 Comments

6:42PM

A chilly and mostly dry weekend will be book-ended by the departure of one minor storm and the arrival of another minor to moderate system, both of which will include some snow, and one of which will include some icing.

The first system has been in the area and has been a strung-out area of moisture occurring with mild air, but now that a cold front has passed, colder air is filtering in, and the last plume of moisture sliding northeastward through the region tonight into early Saturday will start as rain and then change to snow as the cold air finally becomes established enough at all levels. But since this is a fast-moving system and it’s coming at the end of a very mild period, the ground is relatively warm, and amounts will be kept down.

Behind this system, brighter and cold weather will dominate for Saturday afternoon through early Sunday, and though it will remain cold through late Sunday as well, we’ll lose the sunshine as cloudiness advances from the next system. This system later Sunday night and Monday will start as snow in most if not all areas (mix/rain South Coast), but warmer air advancing quickly northward first in the upper levels will switch precipitation over to rain during the early morning hours of Monday. However, cold air will be harder to dislodge at the surface over inland areas (especially from around Interstate 495 northwestward and especially north central MA into interior southern NH. These areas will see a period of icing during the morning Monday, which will make travel somewhat hazardous. By later Monday, these areas will have warmed above freezing and the ice will disappear. That system will exit Monday night and Tuesday through midweek will feature a return to dry weather and colder than normal conditions, along with some gusty wind.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast.  Rain develops early from southwest to northeast, but a changeover to snow takes place from northwest to southeast from around 9PM through midnight, then precipitation gradually tapers off during the overnight hours. Snow accumulations will be around a coating to 1 inch away from the coast in eastern MA and southern NH, but 1-3 inches may occur on unpaved surfaces especially in higher elevations of western and northern Middlesex County of MA northwestward from there. Lows around 30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with spotty light snow possible in the morning. Increasing sun midday through afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-25, coldest inland valleys. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 30s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early morning hours snow except mix South Coast, changing to rain south to north morning but a period of ice inland eastern MA and southern NH, then rain, tapering off late. Lows in the 20s. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 30. Highs in the 30s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Dry and cold. Lows 10-20. Highs 22-32.

216 thoughts on “Bookend Weekend”

  2. when you say inland eastern mass do you mean areas outside of 495 or central middlesex and essex or areas west of i95

  3. Thanks tk. You said a coating to an inch away from the coast so I suspect that means boston as well yes/no meaning not much for boston.

    1. Also could boston stay all rain. Please clarify for boston as my wife wants to know if I’m working. I’m suspecting yes for salting.

  7. Thanks TK :). I’m stressing some on Monday morning as son returns from paternity leave and drives at 4:30 am providence to Boston. I know…silly but I’m being a mom 😉

  8. Temp went from 48 here in Quincy to 45 in 15mins. Hopefully it gets a little colder before precip moves out.

    1. thinking around 9pm is when i will see a change over based on that it was about 45 about a half hour to 45 minutes ago. …. yeah i have nothing to do tonight lol

  10. Thanks TK.

    Clearly I am not correct in 2-4 but I did day yesterday 2-4 for both storms and should have stuck with that. Oh well. Hope everyone had a great weekend.

    1. Hadi from what I’m seeing boston may only get snow on grass but who knows. Hadi I think tonight is your best shot at snow as my take is sleet, freezing rain for early Monday.

        1. Oh agree hadi. But your call of 2-4 I believe you had it for boston may or may not happen. By best shot I think Monday may be more of a sleet type thing. These storms have been crazy to forcast.

          1. I should say I don’t think will happen. I have plent of time for this month but I need two before the 21st.

            1. For sure it’s not gonna happen but at least I put my thoughts out there and took a risk. Tougher to call for snow than rain. I don’t sit back and call for rain I try to analyze and see what might happen. Not a Monday morning QB. I am more like Brady I got out there and give it my all 🙂

  12. 8pm obs …..

    Manchester, NH light rain and sleet pellets, 39F, dewpoint 34F Wind calm.

    Nashua, NH light rain, 37F, dewpoint 37F Wind calm.

    Jaffrey, NH light rain, 34F, dewpoint 31F. Wind calm.

  13. Coating at best on grass (if there is any grass hehehe) in the city. No lasting pavement accumulation.

  14. Thanks TK.
    I am waiting for the changeover to snow where I am in CT. The northern part of Litchfield County has changed over to snow 2 hours earlier than the futurecast RPM model indicated. The next system will do it in reverse late in the weekend into Monday with the wintry precipitation starting off then ending with rain.

  15. Hi All,

    Looking forward to the flip. Will check back in when it does.

    Cooled off quite a bit from earlier. At 37 now.

  16. Regardless of how it plays out hadi you did very well as always keeping us informed. I’d say my shot at a call in tonight may be 50/50.

  17. Hadi and os always do good, but this is mainly rain, maybe a little mix early am, but a nonevent IMO 🙂

  21. Lots of yellow echoes coming in from the western part of the state is that heavy snow or just alot of reflectivity from sleet?

    1. Is the change-over in the city sooner than forecasted? If so, does this mean we have a better chance at 2-4 inches, or just wishful thinking! 🙂

  27. snowing here . freind says its raining where he is which is on the other side of town. what small elevation differences can do.

  37. I have a feeling I am going to be sleeping when the changeover finally happens here. Snowing in the far northwest part of CT and waiting to see when that snow line collapses toward the southeast. Meanwhile snow line advancing now just past the CT River Valley in CT.

  40. I am still thinking a level 1 snowfall for the areas that see snow (4 inches or less)
    The next storm system at this point looks like another level 1 snowfall for areas that do see the snow.

      1. Perhaps. I think recent bright banding on the radar was the heaviest precip, falling as sleet.

        Its still 39F at Logan, so, I think its still a while before snow gets into Boston and by then, how much precip will be left, may not be much.

  50. Taking my first SAT tomorrow so I was kinda hoping somehow there would be a snow postponement but the chances are slim to none

    2. good luck but do not stress to much about it, what schools are you planning on going. I got a passing grade but barly. I still got excepted to all my schools that i applied to including the “reach school” i was excepted.

  58. Unbelievable SLEET!!!

    Pellets are as big as some summer Hail.

    Been sleeting since around 11PM.

    Some flakes mixed in now, but still mostly sleet. Temperature down to 35.

    Beginning to accumulate on grass, cars and roofs.

  59. Holes starting to show up in the precip. area. A whole coating of snow so far here in the highest elevations of West Woburn (I am across town from home). Much of it has been sleet which accounts for higher precip. but lower frozen accumulation.

        1. I can see where you are from my deck if you are where I think you are. Looks like it turned back to sleet again.

                1. Should I expect much more out of this storm from what is already on the ground? I decided to not garage the cars…hoping I didn’t shoot myself in the foot.

  60. Another really heavy slug of precip looks like it is getting ready to move in.
    Have to suffer a few lulls first. 😀

  62. Not for Nothing, but the new 0Z CMC has ALL SNOW for Sunday night/Monday, although not a whole lot, Like 1-3 inches or so. 😀 😀 😀

  64. Still moderate rain w/ sleet mixing in, it’s having a tough time changing over completely around here, 36.9 degrees, looks like back edge is coming through ct, and should be over before 6am.

  67. Wow!! Tk great Job!! We got nothing, a lot of rain with little bit of sleet, close but no cigar,, goodnight 🙂

  68. TK, you NAILED this storm!!!! It stopped snowing in Chelmsford around 1:30, got about 1″ of sleet/snow. Was very pretty 🙂 So glad to hear your mom is doing well, too! It was fun watching the steady decline of temperature – we started out at 53* for the high, and ended with 31.5* for the low on 12/6 – an almost 22* difference. What a day!

    1. I love watching the transition – in this case from the mild to the colder and the rain to sleet to snow. For me, I don’t need a big storm to enjoy the weather. It’s just weather and I love all of it.

      Have a great weekend Flowergirl. 🙂

      1. Thank you, TK! I really enjoyed watching the whole day play out, too – better than any TV show, IMO. You have a great weekend, too!

  69. 0.7 inch here if I’m stretching it…
    It was basically over by 2AM and accumulations came in as expected.
    As stated in an earlier post: 1) The amounts were over-forecast by the models. No surprise. 2) The ground was too warm to support much accumulation anyway.
    Good night & good morning. 🙂

  72. I had some sleet after midnight with some snow flakes mixing in. I didn’t even get a coating on the ground with that. Oh well the setup was not good for accumulating snow. I still think there is a shot at a light accumulation of snow with the next system tomorrow night and Monday before going over to rain. Monday morning commute could very well be impacted across the interior of SNE. Its not a big system but the timing is not great.

  73. We shall live to fight another day :). Sorry for my miss on this one. I had a good streak dating back to last year. I will so better and I promise that.

  74. That’s okay Hadi. I will never forget you and Old Salty nailing that weird storm we had last March with the low pressure center six hundred miles offshore delivering a good dumping of snow particularly in eastern sections of SNE. Both of you thought it would be snow all along. Its on to the next system which will be a messy one. I can’t wait till we get an actual snowstorm and not have to try to pin the tail on the rain snow line.

  75. Something to watch around the 15th. GFS has been consistently showing a system loaded with moisture coming out of the Gulf most of this week.

  76. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How much snow did Boston get in its snowiest winter ever in 1995-96?
    A. 99”
    B. 107.6”
    C. 125.5”
    D. 156.7”

    Answer later today.

      1. We had a 3 ft railing on a deck and on 2 different occasions, the snow depth made it to the top of the railing.

        2. If I remember correctly, there was some significant
          ocean enhancement along the South Shore with one
          of those storms. I think some place got like 28 inches.

  77. Wow, it is amazingly cold in the north-central US this morning …..

    Minneapolis, MN : -9F, International Falls, MN : -22F, Great Falls, MT : -32F.

      1. Hadi the NAM really wants to give us a good shot of snow this Tuesday. It is at its 81-84 hour though :).

  80. I haven’t gone out yet, but in Sterling it looks to be about an inch and mostly on the grass. Great job again TK!

  81. One of our meteorologists here in CT the next system is trending a little more colder rather than warmer. It won’t be a snowstorm but it is those inland areas that could have an impact on the Monday morning commute with a mixture of wintry precipitation going in that time.

  82. Thanks, TK.

    We got barely 1/2 inch of snow.

    I am guessing B – because most everyone else is! 🙂 I really have no idea.

  83. …LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ERR ON KEEPING THIS JUST OFFSHORE BUT WITHIN THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MON MORNING. THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT THIS TRACK WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY OF WARM AIR TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA…MAINTAINING STRONG NORTHERLY ISALLOBARIC FLOW AND KEEPING COLD AIR ENTRENCHED. THIS TRACK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THERMAL PROFILES AND WHEN/IF A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=discussion

  85. ” Therefore, while a concensus blend will still be used…. it will have more weight toward the latest ECMWF, particularly for the thermal fields.”

    Part of the discussion this morning regarding Sunday Night/Monday.

    The EURO and the NAM just bombed on last night’s event with regards to the thermal fields. Shouldnt there be some hesitation in giving them majority weight on the next event ??

    2. There should be. It is equally important to know when NOT to use information from computer models as it is to make use of it.

  86. I think a lot of us see 1-2 inches of snow Sunday night/early Monday morning, but the changeover to rain mid morning Monday is gonna wash it all down the drain. I got all the guys on call starting at midnight Sunday night (salting)

  87. I believe that system on the Euro that looks like it is in a good position is probably being put there by somewhat of the same “malfunction” that overdevelops selected troughs and storms in the past couple years. The trick is trying to figure out when that will happen each time.

    Even if that Euro forecast is somewhat correct, that system, taking the model as is, would be a bit far to the south and extremely fast-moving and would end up a less than impressive event.

  88. Well, good morning all.

    First of all Kudos to TK and JMA and of course I have to Admit Tom had this one
    sniffed out all along. And finally, yes even Charlie had this one. Great job guys.

    The cold air was too shallow and not intense enough, even though it was here
    well in advance of the precip. When precip arrived it did respond to dew point.
    We were out the last. Left the house at 49. Were driving and temp dropped
    to 43 within 20 minutes. WE had dinner and came back out it was 41.
    Played some cards for a couple of hours and then it was 36. And then before
    we got home, splat splat splat on the windshield.

    It was sleet, but the sleet was soft as it splatted on the windshield instead of bouncing
    off. When we arrived home, The street was slippery with accumulated sleet.
    I’m not sure I ever saw it sleet so hard.

    Now this morning, what do we have to show for it??
    Well a thin patch here and there and that is it.

    Hadi, we tried, just couldn’t pull it off.

    NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. What a crazy storm, I actually drove up 495 to get to the snow/sleet/rain line, and I hit that line right around hopkington, in hopkington it was sleet, hard balls of sleet bouncing e everywhere, then like os said got back home, and it was a soft sleet with rain, awesome stuff 🙂

  89. Waiting on 12Z Nam to comment on tomorrow night.

    But as long as there is discussion about 10 days from now.

    Ok, some aren’t trusting the EURO:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    What about the CMC?

    There are some timing differences, but is sure as bleep has it as well.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    FIM as it as well, although it has it well off shore, but it HAS it.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2013120700/236/3hap_sfc_f240.png

    GFS does NOT have it.

    Could it disappear on subsequent runs? Certainly. But we “may” have something here.

  91. You know, so far, nothing really moves me regarding tomorrow night/Monday.
    CMC is cold, but starved for moisture. Euro gives a bit of front end snow, but rains
    when the real juice arrives. GFS is well, Blah blah blah. Nam looks to be disintegrating
    as it progresses. 😀 😀 NAM still “appears” to give us the most. 😀 😀 And that’s not
    saying much. We shall see.

    Just about time to write this one off as well.

    1. From NWS this morning:

      AND WITH COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM
      STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES TO THE NE…THAT TOTAL QPF VALUES MAY BE LIMITED INITIALLY AS EVAP OCCURS. HOWEVER…IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL START AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A GUIDANCE AVERAGE AROUND 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF LIQUID. ASSUMING AVERAGE 10 TO 1 RATIOS THERE MAYBE AN INCH TO 3 OR SO INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS/SUNRISE. IF A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FZRA OCCURS…ICE
      ACCUMULATIONS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AS QPF OUTPUT INCREASES AFTER 12Z

      I’m so impressed! NOT!

      1. It’s something, and I do think we get more from this than last night 🙂 I’m not sure that’s saying much but nevertheless 🙂

  92. Mondays I am actually hoping we can write off. Timing is just too dangerous. When I was falling asleep I could hear the splats of sleet and thought I was imagining it. Thanks TK and OS for confirming I did 🙂

  94. Its not a big system the next one but its all about the timing and for interior areas the timing is not good for the morning commute.

  95. I am thinking a light accumulation as well Charlie a 1-2 1-3 for the interior. I am not focusing on the amount but the timing of the situation with morning commute on Monday across the interior and where that cold air will be stubborn and not give up without a fight. At and near the coast the changeover will much faster.

  96. I’ve been watching a bit of TWC this morning and the streets in Dallas and I think Little Rock, Arkansas are ice skating rinks. Its barely 20F there and the few cars that have been passing by during the live shots have been either crawling or in some cases, come sliding by.

    3. It’s embarrassing Tom, lived there for 5 yrs, and it happens every year there, I don’t know why they don’t invest in salt trucks, if they salted them, the roads would be cleared, otherwise everyone looks out there windows down there in awww saying there trapped in there house over idk an inch of sleet, it’s a joke 🙂

  97. The Almanac big storm for this month during that timeframe. It won’t happen and if it does the Almanac got lucky.

    1. 😀 😀 😀

      TK called it.

      That juicy system the 0Z Euro had at 240 hours
      is Now GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  99. Anyone notice the plume of Moisture coming up from the SW around hours 75-84 on BOTH the NAM and the GFS???

    NAM actually shows about 2 inches of snow, Boston point South. 😀 😀

    FWIW, GFS still does NOT have the 240 day out event. 😀

  100. I agree with the 1-3 and I would not be surprised if winter weather advisories are posted especially for the interior of SNE.

  101. Watch the track of the low for next system because shift a little further east and if the high holds stronger could make a difference in precipitation type especially in the interior.

  103. sunday night. and monday. sleet,freezing rain and rain for most few inches higher terrain. Minor change in track can change that just like JJ said. Not expecting much from this system. After this looks dry and cool

  104. So does anybody have a guess on how much snow for boston what tomorrow night or Monday morning. I just got home from work and have not seen anything. It sure will be cold enough for snow. Now a watcher for Tuesday is that right.

  105. I would say no more than an inch for Boston. The amount is of precipitation should not be the focus here but rather the timing which is not good for the Monday morning commute especially across the interior where the cold air will hang tough. Areas at or near the coast quicker changeover to plain rain.

  107. So far anyway, still looks like a general 1-3 inches across the area starting after midnight
    tomorrow and ending or changing over sometime Monday AM to early afternoon.

  108. 18Z CMC partially in. Looks to keep MOST qpf to the South of SNE.
    Don’t have the 850MB info or total qpfs just yet. Looks like about 3-4 mm total
    OR about .1 to .15 inch. Not much. 😀 😀 😀

  111. I still see a widespread 1-2 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday before the changeover, have a good night everyone 🙂

  112. I think the combination of very light precip, while the column is cold enough to snow …………. and then either mid level warmth (all areas) or boundary level warmth at the coastline is going to produce practically no snow. A few flurries, maybe a feather coating at most………..Outside 128 may slip and slide during Monday morning’s commute because of some light sleet or freezing rain.

  113. Tom,

    Thanks for your input you have been spot on. However your like Debbie downer for us snow lovers. HA! Thanks for keeping us grounded!

    1. Thanks !

      The snow will come, eventually. Perhaps we’ll skip all the smaller early season events and when one hits in January or February, it will be a big accumulation.

  114. We’re locked in a pattern, and it’s not one conducive to snow in SNE. It’s actually been awhile (several years) since we had southeasterly (mostly) rain events. But, we’ve had a few in recent weeks and that looks to repeat itself on Monday. Basically the really cold air (far west of here) is muted at best once it gets here and we’re on the warm side of almost every precipitation event as lows traverse to our west or on top of us. I don’t see this pattern changing soon. I do think the ski areas have gotten snow out of these systems and will continue to get some, though not a lot.

  115. Tom, Unfortunately, I am pretty much forced to agree with you this time around. 😀

    I’m really disappointed in the overall pattern.

    Oh well. Not much we can do about it. 😀

      1. I get the forecasts of amounts now .. but it still puzzles me that media was talking about amounts for Monday 2 or 3 days ago.

        Completely irresponsible IMO.

        1. What’s up tk. How’s your mom feeling. How do you see boston doing for this next storm. It will be cold tomorrow as I dawn the suit again. Hope all is well tk with you.

          1. She is doing well! Thank you 🙂

            I see Boston doing very little snow, no ice, and a light amount of rain.

  116. And now that in my book it’s ok to talk amounts, my early call for Monday is 1-2 inches snow then ice in the Worcester Hills and maybe into the 495 belt then eventually to rain, with 1 inch or less elsewhere and maybe brief icy pockets (valleys) before rain. Once you get to the immediate coast and especially RI and southeastern MA it’s a mix to rain event. Also think total QP will be on the low side, not helping the deficit very much, and also believe the steadiest precipitation will be over before Monday evening. Once it’s cold enough to snow, a ripple of low pressure throws a plume of moisture just offshore, maybe enough for a light mix/snow CC & Islands but a miss elsewhere early Tuesday. The main story will be dry and very cold mid to late week next week. Differences show up in models for next weekend so it’s not even worth talking about right now. Waste of time.

  119. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How much snow did Boston get in its snowiest winter ever in 1995-96?
    A. 99”
    B. 107.6”
    C. 125.5”
    D. 156.7”

    The coreect answer is B.

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