Wednesday Forecast

230 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)…
The weather’s gotten into the mood to be harder to forecast, but we like a challenge. After a nearly no-show on the snow portion part 1 of the storm system, the second part of it won’t be able to pull such a trick, as we’ll see periods of rain/drizzle today and that area of heavier rain coming through in the early morning hours of Thursday, and a trailing trough bringing a few more rain/mix showers Thursday evening and night. Still expecting drier and colder weather by Friday and a chilly start and milder finish to the coming weekend as additional cold air remains locked up in Canada.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle, though deepest valleys north central MA and southern NH may still see freezing rain/drizzle early. Areas of fog. Temperatures slowly rise through the 30s. Wind light E to variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Heavier rain and a possible thunderstorm well after midnight from southwest to northeast. Temperatures rising through the 40s evening and into the 50s. Wind light E to SE shifting to S then increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Cloudy through morning with periods of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Sun/cloud mix midday. Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower late day. Early-day highs around 60 then falling through the 50s and into the 40s by late day. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a rain/mix shower evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows around 30. Wind SW to W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 29-MARCH 4)…
Mild with possible rain showers February 29. A few snow showers and colder March 1. Fair and chilly March 2. Risk of light mix and chilly March 3. Milder with rain showers possible March 4. This portion of forecast low confidence and subject to change.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)…
Fair early and late in the period. Unsettled mid period. Variable temperatures, averaging near to below normal.

230 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    2. Chances? No.
      Chances and occurrences are not the same. 🙂

      Any sane meteorologist and/or climatologist must answer no.

  4. Thanks TK. No school due to weather here in Plymouth, NH today, although not quite sure why; doesn’t look too bad out. I think we’re pretty much done with big snow chances for the season. It’s the Lakes Cutter parade on the GFS. Classic strong El Nino winter. Like TK though, I love the variety in winters. Amazing how different this one is from last, but makes perfect sense. Ones like this make the snowy winters more exciting.

    FWIW (don’t run me off the blog!), the CFS monthlies show El Nino restrengthening significantly into next fall after weakening in the next couple months. That would be highly unusual, and most other models show a continued transition towards neutral/La Nina. However, the CFS was very accurate in providing early prediction of the development and magnitude of the current event. I personally don’t believe it at this point though.

    Lastly, February 2016 is poised to shatter the record for warmest month on record, globally. Some incredible anomalies worldwide.

    1. I certainly expect some 70 Degree days, however, an 80 degree day is not
      out of the question.

      I noticed now ZERO snow chances in TK’s Outlook. All the previous storm
      threats have seemed to go poof.

      I am with Retrac, we are done with ANY significant snow for the Winter. Perhaps a few nuisance events, but no biggies. Winter, it’s been nice knowing you.
      SEE YA!

  6. Thank you, TK. I appreciate your forecasts, diligence, and explanations.

    I’m hoping for a `miracle’ soon. Doesn’t have to be of the April Fool’s kind (remember, that one in 1997 sneaked up on us as someone with a master key unlocked the cold air valve on the Canadian border – models caught onto it only a few days before it happened) but just something other than a parade of rainstorms and murky, in-between days. Chances are slim, but we can all hope.

  8. Thanks TK !

    This is based on nothing, but pure speculation ….

    I don’t think we are done with accumulating snow.

    Transitioning from El Nino to La Nina, northern and northeastern Canada is positively frigid and we haven’t had a MAJOR late season snowstorm in many years, so the law of averages is there as well.

    1. OK, but I highly doubt it.

      IF it were to happen, guaranteed it would be at the worst possible time, likely after a week of unprecedented warmth. 😀 😀 😀

  9. Kind of concerned about the Carolinas. Dry slot approaching, looks like they should get some sun down there. Hopefully not too bad with severe weather/tornadoes this afternoon, evening.

  10. Total snowfall to date = 25.4″

    If this is going to be the final total (more or less) then it would seem to be a typical amount for an El Niño winter around here.

    1. This is true, Philip. I have thrown in the towel at this point. This said, there is plenty of very cold air sitting to our north (not that far north, by the way) and that’s not going anywhere soon, as Tom said. It does not appear poised to make an incursion other than northern NE, but this could change. Given the NAO parameter and some of the other indicators I would have expected the cold air to be `unlocked’ at this point. Alas, mother nature has her own plans.

  12. RE: Thunderstorms overnight here

    24 hour chance of thunderstorm (this is what NWS posted)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_PROB_TRW_CALIBRATED_24HR__f033.gif

    SuperCell Composite parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f024.gif

    Just for kicks, 0-1km HELICITY for overnight. YIKES!!

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

    Now the significant tornado ingredients are ZILCH overnight for our area, BUT
    If we had a cell that could get cranking, there is more than ample helicity to
    get rotation for sure. Just something to keep in mind.

    2. From NWS:

      MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT IS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH 925 MB SPEEDS OF 65-80 KT DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS JET ADVECTS A VERY MILD AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH DEW PTS INTO THE MU50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS GENERATES 400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THIS
      AREA! VERY ANOMALOUS FOR A LATE FEB SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT…FRONTAL SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LOW PROB OF A FINE LINE OF LOW TOP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY 06Z-12Z THU. HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING UP TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS 06Z-12Z THU WITH GREATEST RISK ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

  15. Good morning! Looks like no one is buying the foot of snow the 0z Euro wants to deliver next week? Looks nothing like the GFS….

    1. Want to know something? I have given up, so I didn’t even look at the Euro.
      I hope this isn’t some sort of cruel joke on your part. 😀

      going to check

  17. If we get this I will be very happy and wouldn’t mind if it didn’t snow again this winter. I just want one big one before winter is over.

  18. I think the Euro model is playing tricks with our minds: Upsetting the equilibrium of both spring-lovers (eg, Charlie) and winter-lovers (eg, me). Two days ago (early run) the Euro model presented a platter of snow for most of New England on Monday, with some mix and rain on the side for south coast and immediate coastline. A run 6 hours later had the storm magically disappearing. Hence, I have no faith in what the Euro is doing, and that includes the European economy and currency, by the way.

    1. We have started last Monday, and we are training 2 days this upcoming week, (mon,tue). Just lime visits. Weather looks good.

  20. Indeed a nice overrunning event next Thursday on the Euro and then the primary storm passing well to our south. It actually has some ensemble support as well though I agree that solution is unlikely to happen verbatim.

    The GFS has another huge cutter similar to what happened last week and is happening today. The CMC cuts as well but still has a decent up front thump of snow.

    We’ll see. It’s not a great pattern, but eventually the timing is going to work out to allow one of these systems to pass by to our south. We at least are in a pattern of fairly frequent storm chances with cold air nearby in southern Canada. We have been worse off before in other Marches.

    So I for one am not writing off winter yet. Its still only Feb 24. Statistically, the chances we are done with accumulating snow in southern NE are extremely low.

  21. Not wise to make decisions on winter weather chances through March based on current weather and inconsistent computer projections. Know the pattern first. 🙂

      1. Past history does not guarantee future results. 🙂

        Check the weather pattern leading up to April 1 1997. 🙂

        1. Yes, I understand all of that and I do remember 1997 very well. It was the year our daughter was married.

          It was in the 60s prior to that storm and in the 60s after it.
          All it took was one well timed brief cold interlude. 😀

          I understand, I understand. I just do not think anything remotely like that happens this year, that is all. 😀

    2. What’s average March snowfall for Boston? I’m guessing it won’t take much of a storm to put us over March average.

        1. Most of the snow averages fall in the 1st half of March. I think I’ve read that after the 18th of March its drops off dramatically.

          1. I’ve also read, not sure how true it is, maybe tk can comment, but it’s key in March snow events that accumulate to have it during nighttime as supposed to daytime.

  24. Warm front approaching with rain increasing in western and central areas and Cape Cod winds have become SE.

    Also, quite foggy now here.

  25. I see a tornado warning in eastern NC. That area is fairly populated. Just seeing it through a regular NWS radar, so I cant tell if that’s an actual tornado on the ground or one of those warnings based on seeing rotation on radar.

  26. It’s pouring buckets here in Manchester, CT.

    12z Euro still wants to dump on us next Wed night into Thurs AM…..snow that is 🙂

    3. There are also some GFS ensembles not too far off from this solution. I would not discount it, though we need continued run to run consistency.

  28. Euro has a loaded system over the southeast at the end of its run as well though the steering currents probably take it out to sea southeast of us. Still a better look than the train of cutters the GFS is offering.

  30. I liked the idea of a much wetter daytime today than some media sources had on their outlooks. Atmosphere looked juiced.

  31. Looking at the tornado watches on east coast today not very February like. It looks like a new tornado watch is going to be issued soon for D.C. Baltimore, Philly and southern New Jersey.

  32. Dave this looks like a map you would see a few months from now in May.
    Even here in SNE were under a marginal risk for thunderstorms. Don’t think we see severe storms here but wouldn’t be surprised if there are some rumbles of thunder.

        1. Joshua, the Euro has the snowstorm Wed night 3/2 into Thursday AM 3/3. GFS is a rainstorm and delays the brunt of it to Thurs night/Fri AM.

  35. I wonder if a thunderstorm might still be rotating enough in southern New England overnight that results in a tornado warning ?

      1. Well, I didn’t mean to imply one possibly on the ground …..

        But, with the better radar technology that shows these storms rotating better than in the past, it seems if a storm shows rotation, a warning is issued even if a tornado is not on the ground.

    1. Personally it’s sad IMO, bringing jobs, and building yet a few people stop it, and cost millions if not billions of waste less tax money to this. 🙁

  39. Warm front through Marshfield. Fog lifted while the windows fogged up, temp rose and the wind is now steady from the south.

  41. Wow, warm front has come through here as well. Temp just skyrocketed from 46 to 57 degrees in the last hour!! Just had another episode of heavy rain and wind as well.

  44. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for southern four counties of CT until 2am Thursday.
    What month is this???????

  45. Some of the text from that severe thunderstorm watch
    PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
    SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
    A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

  49. As seen today, there are big stakes for whether the GFS or EURO longer range scenario plays out.

    The GFS scenario of a few strong inside runners would present a very active severe weather season, whereas the more suppressed EURO would offer less severe weather to a smaller amount of the U.S.

      1. It’s been a crazy busy start back to school, so I have no recollection of what the models showed many days ago. 🙂

      1. If you showed me that SPC map with those severe and tornado watches the month of February would not come to mind.
        I think this is a first at least I remember a severe thunderstorm watch posted for parts of CT during winter.

  52. Blue Hill is 58F with a dew point of 57F.

    Wind S at 25, gusting to 40.

    Not too much longer for Boston to suddenly warm up.

    1. Blue Hill is 8 miles South of me and I was at 45 just a moment ago, but
      just shot to 49, I guess it’s coming through here just about now. 😀

    1. Great stuff, but I have to re-educate myself on these maps.

      I’m used to looking at snow maps and column temps and thicknesses 🙂 🙂

      1. Tornadoes are possible IF that index is .2 or higher. An index of .4 or .5 is rather high, but it does go higher.

  55. Dave that vorticity link you post was a great find last summer and always enjoy seeing that link posted.

    1. I was pleased I stumbled onto to that one.

      You should have the main link saved by now. Plus you should be able to derive it from the link I posted, but If you need it, just post something and I shall provide it. 😀

  57. Looking at the current radar, it does appear that the storms have connected more into a squall line. I think when this happens, the tornado threat comes down some, but the outflow wind threat increases (bow echo).

    It doesn’t look like there are many individual super cells until you get to the southern edge of the line.

  58. HRRR definitely shows some thunderstorms involved over SNE tonight, especially west and south of Boston. Obviously instability is seriously lacking, but it doesn’t take much with the other parameters where they’re at. Very dynamic storm system.

    1. Imagine if we had LI of -10 with Cape of 5,000 along with these other
      parameters? We’d be looking at a monster outbreak.

      1. No kidding! Luckily it’s very difficult, anywhere, to get the magnitude of shear we have tonight with instability parameters even close to what you described.

        Still, crazy that we’re talking about this in February. Wonder what the historical analog for an event like this is? Doubt this is something that’s never happened before, but I can’t recall any quite like it, TK probably has a couple.

  64. That line to the West of us is slowly weakening.

    Not so sure we have any thunder and lightning. Of course it could perk up again.
    Will have another look after Chicago PD and the News. by for now. 😀

  68. I’m not very impressed by this dieing out line of thunderstorms, will see if they get gain some juice from the ocean?

  72. All types of watches and warnings at 2:10 this morning. We’re getting some rain but strong, gusty winds in Sudbury now. Severe thunderstorm watch not far to the west of here and a line of severe thunderstorms to the west of here coming up from CT. Some storms moving 85 mph w/some wind gusts over 70 mph. Anybody else up?

      1. Yes, and the storms are moving so fast the weather service can’t keep up with them! I don’t know if any real strong storms will affect the Boston area except for the high winds and some rain.

  73. Storms moving northeasterly very quickly. Severe thunderstorms now in RI and moving to Bristol County in RI at around 90 mph. Wow. Now Worcester radio says storms near Worcester moving 100 mph. But they are moving so fast the warnings come and go. And this is February?

  79. Ok, moving at 115 mph? TK true?

    BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    240 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

    The National Weather Service in taunton has issued a

    * severe thunderstorm warning for…
    northwestern bristol county in southeastern massachusetts…
    west central essex county in northeastern massachusetts…
    western norfolk county in eastern massachusetts…
    southeastern worcester county in central massachusetts…
    middlesex county in northeastern massachusetts…

    * until 330 AM EST

    * at 239 AM EST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
    capable of producing destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. this
    storm was located over upton, or near milford, and was moving
    northeast at 115 mph.

  82. Can’t sleep. T Warring all the way to coast now. We are out of box but still long rumbling thunder that shakes house

  83. The wind is in much longer bursts. Not quite as strong but a bit scary as it makes me wonder if any circulation is out there. I have to admit, as much as I love storms, I would not do well in a tornado prone area…especially at night

    1. So far so good. How is the driveway. Besides my recycling being all over the yard, I am good. Still going strong here’s though in waves for over an hour now.

      1. Just came in and so far so good…think worst is over. Driveway slightly flooded but I have seen worse. You?

    1. It’s like a war zone. Haven’t been able to sleep all night long. Between the wind and everything else it will be interesting to see what kind of damage we might have come daylight.

      1. Same here (well earlier). I went outside just recently and was surprised by the lack of damage. Hope it’s the same for you!

  87. As wild as it has been there is a really nasty looking cell about 6 miles west of Hingham heading right toward us.

  89. Some branches down in Newton, trash cans blown all over the place. Seems anything not secured is in the street, saw on my way to work in Newton.

  90. Bristol County has been in five consecutive Severe Thunderstorm Warnings since 2:40. Incredible!

    1. I know, I’m concerned we are going to lose the day.

      No info yet.

      As I’m sure for everyone else, the wind has been unreal. I don’t have a weather station, but I’m guessing we’ve gusted several times to 50 and maybe higher a few times.

  94. What a night last night. Just looked at the SPC storm reports and I will post the link. There were more severe weather reports here in SNE than any thunderstorm day we had last summer. What a storm system for the time of year to produce this kind of severe weather outbreak. My lights flickered but I didn’t lose power. 69,000 Eversource customers without power in CT and lot of schools either closed or delayed.
    Here are those storm reports from this outbreak of severe weather.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

  95. Well, that was interesting. I went to bed after news with Eric hinting that the Severe thnderstorm watch might be moved farther East/North. I woke up about 3AM
    to A nice thunderstorm. My smart phone went off and it was Matt Noyes with the
    Severe thunderstorm warnings. It has been a long time since Thunder has awakened me
    in the middle of the night. I thought no way with seeing the storms weakening.
    Something must have happened.

    During the storm there was one gust of wind that had to be 60 MPH. It was huge.
    After that, not so much in the wind department or at least nothing approaching
    that.

    GFS still no snow next week. Checking Euro now. 😀

  96. There ya go! Euro has no gone the GFS way. NO SNOW NEXT WEEK.
    Storm threat for the 3rd or so, now a DEEP INSIDE RUNNER! I KNEW IT!!!!

    In fact for 10 days out, at most an inch or 2 somewhere along the way in SNE.
    Southern Ontario and Quebec get nearly 4 feet over that period. Amazing what several
    hundred miles will do.

  99. When the SPC expanded the marginal risk to all of SNE with their update around 11:30am yesterday that got my attention. Later most of CT was under a slight risk then the severe thunderstorm watch came out around 7:40pm last night for southern CT and later on new watch was issued for northern CT and a good chunk of MA. The CAPE and lift index values were not particularly high but enough other dynamics to off set that.
    To me even though its winter first severe weather day or in this case night in SNE was pretty impressive.

    1. I do not believe I have EVER witnessed such a severe thunderstom event during the Winter, ever. This must be unprecedented.

      Oh I am sure over all of history it certainly has happened, but since
      weather records have been kept, I wonder how many times. If it’s not the first, I doubt there have been too many.

  101. Dave I never remember being under a severe thunderstorm watch in the winter months and never seen a severe weather outbreak here in SNE in the winter months that we saw last night.
    TK is it possible to do a post mortem blog on this severe weather we had and what was going on in the atmosphere to cause this kind of weather.

  102. Crazy night.

    I am happy to report that we are pushing through the few outages we have and do have school.

    It is still June like out. Really warm !!

  104. Updating but a couple quick comments as I do…
    -I’ll post more later on the events of overnight as my time is limited to just a few minutes for this update.
    -The 115 MPH forward speed for the storm on that warning was a mistake. They corrected it and it was actually 65 MPH.

  105. Thanks TK. Looking forward to here your thoughts on the severe weather we had and what was going on in the atmosphere to get these storms to strong and even severe levels.

  106. Updated!

    I have a busy day (much of it non-weather related) but I will chime in when I can and we’ll discuss the events of overnight.

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